基于SPA和云理论的水资源承载能力评价研究
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摘要
我国的水资源短缺问题日趋严重,新形势下,双控行动是解决水资源短缺问题的战略措施,研究水资源承载能力有助于水资源的可持续发展。从水资源总量、水资源强度、生态环境3个方面出发,基于集对分析(SPA)和云理论,构建了水资源承载能力评价体系,确定出评价等级与标准,并以南京市浦口区为例,研究了浦口区的水资源承载能力。结果表明,浦口区2016年的水资源承载能力等级为一般。此结果与实际情况相符,验证了模型的适用性,为最严格水资源管理和水生态文明建设提供了科学依据。
The shortage of water resources in China is becoming more and more serious. Under the new situation,double control action is a strategic measure to solve the shortage of water resources. It is of great significance to study the carrying capacity of water resources for the sustainable development of the society and economy. From the three aspects of total water resources,water resources intensity and ecological environment,based on set pair analysis and cloud theory,the evaluation system of water resources carrying capacity was constructed,and the evaluation grade and standard were determined. The water resources carrying capacity based on the total and intensity of water resources was studied in Pukou District of Nanjing. The results show that for Pukou area in 2016,the resource carrying capacity grade is general,the result coincides with the actual situation,which validates the applicability of the model,and provides a scientific basis for the most stringent water resources management and water ecological civilization construction.
The shortage of water resources in China is becoming more and more serious. Under the new situation,double control action is a strategic measure to solve the shortage of water resources. It is of great significance to study the carrying capacity of water resources for the sustainable development of the society and economy. From the three aspects of total water resources,water resources intensity and ecological environment,based on set pair analysis and cloud theory,the evaluation system of water resources carrying capacity was constructed,and the evaluation grade and standard were determined. The water resources carrying capacity based on the total and intensity of water resources was studied in Pukou District of Nanjing. The results show that for Pukou area in 2016,the resource carrying capacity grade is general,the result coincides with the actual situation,which validates the applicability of the model,and provides a scientific basis for the most stringent water resources management and water ecological civilization construction.
引文
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[10]许玲燕,杜建国,刘高峰.基于云模型的太湖流域农村水环境承载力动态变化特征分析:以太湖流域镇江区域为例[J].长江流域资源与环境,2017,26(3):445-453.
[11]陈雷.全面实施水资源消耗总量和强度双控行动着力保障经济社会持续健康发展[J].中国水利,2016(23):21-24.
[12]邱林,周梦,黄鑫.基于五等级集对分析的土壤质量等级评价[J].华北水利水电大学学报(自然科学版),2014,35(6):34-36,83.
[13]赵克勤.集对分析及其初步应用[M].杭州:浙江科学技术出版社,2000.
[14]赵吴静,吴开亚,金菊良.防洪工程安全评价集对分析:可变模糊集模型[J].水电能源科学,2007,25(2):5-7,13.
[15]李德毅,刘常昱.论正态云模型的普适性[J].中国工程科学,2004(8):28-34.
[16]张金鑫,唐德善,丁亿凡,等.基于云模型的流域人水和谐评价方法[J].水电能源科学,2015,33(9):155-158,127.
[2] FADEL M,ZEINATI M,JAMALI D. Water resources management in Lebanon:institutional capacity and policy options[J]. Water policy,2001,3(5):425-448.
[3] NAIMI A A M,BEREZOWSKA A E. Algiers carrying capacity with respect to per capita domestic water use[J].Sustainable cities and society,2014(13):1-11.
[4] KOOP SH A,LEEUWEN C J. Assessment of the sustainability of water resources management:a critical review of the City Blueprint approach[J]. Water resources management,2015,29(15):5649-5670.
[5] KUZDAS C,WARNER B P,WIEK A,et al. Sustainability assessment of water governance alternatives:the case of Guanacaste,Costa Rica[J]. Sustainability science,2016,11(2):231-247.
[6]张义,张合平,李丰生,等.基于改进模型的广西水资源生态足迹动态分析[J].资源科学,2013,35(8):1601-1610.
[7]万星,丁晶,张晓丽.区域地下水资源承载力综合评价的集对分析方法[J].城市环境与城市生态,2006,19(2):8-10.
[8]郑志宏,魏明华.基于熵值法的改进集对分析水质模糊评价[J].河海大学学报(自然科学版),2013,41(2):136-139.
[9]邵帅,梁少卫.云模型在水资源供求预测中的应用[J].西北民族大学学报(自然科学版),2008,29(3):79-82,94.
[10]许玲燕,杜建国,刘高峰.基于云模型的太湖流域农村水环境承载力动态变化特征分析:以太湖流域镇江区域为例[J].长江流域资源与环境,2017,26(3):445-453.
[11]陈雷.全面实施水资源消耗总量和强度双控行动着力保障经济社会持续健康发展[J].中国水利,2016(23):21-24.
[12]邱林,周梦,黄鑫.基于五等级集对分析的土壤质量等级评价[J].华北水利水电大学学报(自然科学版),2014,35(6):34-36,83.
[13]赵克勤.集对分析及其初步应用[M].杭州:浙江科学技术出版社,2000.
[14]赵吴静,吴开亚,金菊良.防洪工程安全评价集对分析:可变模糊集模型[J].水电能源科学,2007,25(2):5-7,13.
[15]李德毅,刘常昱.论正态云模型的普适性[J].中国工程科学,2004(8):28-34.
[16]张金鑫,唐德善,丁亿凡,等.基于云模型的流域人水和谐评价方法[J].水电能源科学,2015,33(9):155-158,127.