近35年中国耕地集约度时空变化特征分析
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摘要
为对比分析全国各地区耕地集约利用时空变化特征,探索耕地集约度变化关键节点,利用1985—2016年省际面板数据,构建包含17项指标的耕地集约利用评价指标体系。基于主成分分析法综合评价各研究区域耕地集约利用水平,运用动态变化模型分析耕地集约度变化差异。结果表明:(1)在国家尺度上,耕地集约度总体表现为"缓慢上升—迅速增加"的趋势;(2)在区域尺度上,耕地集约利用水平具有明显的分异特征,东部地区耕地集约度最高,中部地区次之,东北、西南和西北地区集约利用水平有待提升;(3)在省域尺度上,耕地集约度受自然地理条件和经济发展状况影响较大,区域差异明显;(4)随着耕地集约度增速变缓、生产要素集约度降低和国家政策调整,"产量—生态"平衡下的可持续集约化将是耕地利用的发展方向。因此,未来应关注耕地集约利用的生态环境效益及风险,更好地促进耕地可持续集约利用。
In order to analyze the spatiotemporal characteristics of intensive cultivated land use and explore the key nodes of its change, the evaluation indexes system was established, which included 17 specific indicators using the provincial panel data from 1985 to 2016. The principal component analysis(PCA) was adopted to comprehensively evaluate the intensive utilization level of cultivated land, dynamic change model was used to explain variation differences. The results indicate that:(1) on the national scale, the degree of cultivated land intensive use shows a trend of ‘slow rise-rapid increase';(2) on the regional scale, the intensive use level of cultivated land has obvious differentiation characteristics; cultivated land intensity is highest in the eastern region, followed by the central region, the northeast, southwest and northwestern regions need to be improved;(3) on the provincial scale, cultivated land intensity is greatly affected by the natural geographical conditions and economic development, and the regional differences are obvious;(4) with the slower growth of cultivated land intensification, the reduction of production factors and the adjustment of national policies, sustainable intensification on the basis of the balance of ‘production-ecology' are the future development direction of cultivated land utilization. Therefore, the attention should be paid to the ecological and environmental benefits and risks of intensive cultivated land use in the future, so as to better promote the sustainable and intensive use of cultivated land.
In order to analyze the spatiotemporal characteristics of intensive cultivated land use and explore the key nodes of its change, the evaluation indexes system was established, which included 17 specific indicators using the provincial panel data from 1985 to 2016. The principal component analysis(PCA) was adopted to comprehensively evaluate the intensive utilization level of cultivated land, dynamic change model was used to explain variation differences. The results indicate that:(1) on the national scale, the degree of cultivated land intensive use shows a trend of ‘slow rise-rapid increase';(2) on the regional scale, the intensive use level of cultivated land has obvious differentiation characteristics; cultivated land intensity is highest in the eastern region, followed by the central region, the northeast, southwest and northwestern regions need to be improved;(3) on the provincial scale, cultivated land intensity is greatly affected by the natural geographical conditions and economic development, and the regional differences are obvious;(4) with the slower growth of cultivated land intensification, the reduction of production factors and the adjustment of national policies, sustainable intensification on the basis of the balance of ‘production-ecology' are the future development direction of cultivated land utilization. Therefore, the attention should be paid to the ecological and environmental benefits and risks of intensive cultivated land use in the future, so as to better promote the sustainable and intensive use of cultivated land.
引文
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[19] 石淑芹,曹玉青,吴文斌,等.耕地集约化评价指标体系与评价方法研究进展[J].中国农业科学,2017,50(7):1210-1222.
[20] 封志明,刘宝勤,杨艳昭.中国耕地资源数量变化的趋势分析与数据重建:1949—2003[J].自然资源学报,2005,20(1):35-43.
[21] 陈印军,易小燕,方琳娜,等.中国耕地资源与粮食增产潜力分析[J].中国农业科学,2016,49(6):1117-1131.
[22] 王国刚,刘彦随,陈秧分.中国省域耕地集约利用态势与驱动力分析[J].地理学报,2014,69(7):907-915.
[2] 曾杰,姚小薇.武汉城市圈耕地集约利用时空分异特征[J].农业工程学报,2013,29(19):215-223.
[3] 邓楚雄,谢炳庚,李晓青,等.长沙市耕地集约利用时空变化分析[J].农业工程学报,2012,28(1):230-237.
[4] 曹春艳.耕地集约利用与新型城镇化耦合协调发展研究:以江苏省为例[J].中国农业资源与区划,2018,39(6):67-73.
[5] 吴红,张晓玲.安徽省城镇化与耕地利用集约化的动态响应关系[J].农业工程学报,2017,33(12):262-269.
[6] Kong X,Zhang X,Lal R,et al.Chapter Two-Groundwater Depletion by Agricultural Intensification in China's HHH Plains,Since 1980s[J].Advances in Agronomy,2016,135:59-106.
[7] 王红娟.我国北方粮食主产区土壤养分分布特征研究[D].北京:中国农业科学院,2007.
[8] Guo J H,Liu X J,Zhang Y,et al.Significant acidification in major Chinese croplands[J].Science,2010,327(5968):1008-1010.
[9] 张浩,冯淑怡,曲福田.耕地保护、建设用地集约利用与城镇化耦合协调性研究[J].自然资源学报,2017,32(6):1002-1015.
[10] 慕智玉,任平.四川省耕地集约度与城镇化水平时空变化及耦合关系分析[J].四川师范大学学报:自然科学版,2016,39(1):128-135.
[11] 周杨武,柳杰.我国耕地集约利用水平地区差异研究:基于投影寻踪模型的面板数据分析[J].中国农业资源与区划,2015,36(1):22-30.
[12] 李兆亮,杨子生,邹金浪.我国耕地利用集约度空间差异及影响因素研究[J].农业现代化研究,2014,35(1):88-92.
[13] 窦妍,南灵.基于PSR框架的耕地集约利用评价及驱动力研究:以关中地区为例[J].农业现代化研究,2011,32(5):615-618.
[14] 吴郁玲,冯忠垒,周勇,等.耕地集约利用影响因素的协整分析[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2011,21(11):67-72.
[15] 吕晓,牛善栋,李振波,等.中国耕地集约利用研究现状及趋势分析[J].农业工程学报,2015,31(18):212-224.
[16] 姚冠荣,刘桂英,谢花林.中国耕地利用投入要素集约度的时空差异及其影响因素分析[J].自然资源学报,2014,29(11):1836-1848.
[17] 陈伟,吴群.考虑耕地质量差异影响的江苏省耕地集约利用评价[J].农业工程学报,2013,29(15):244-253.
[18] 张荣天,焦华富.中国省际耕地利用效率时空格局分异与机制分析[J].农业工程学报,2015,31(2):277-287.
[19] 石淑芹,曹玉青,吴文斌,等.耕地集约化评价指标体系与评价方法研究进展[J].中国农业科学,2017,50(7):1210-1222.
[20] 封志明,刘宝勤,杨艳昭.中国耕地资源数量变化的趋势分析与数据重建:1949—2003[J].自然资源学报,2005,20(1):35-43.
[21] 陈印军,易小燕,方琳娜,等.中国耕地资源与粮食增产潜力分析[J].中国农业科学,2016,49(6):1117-1131.
[22] 王国刚,刘彦随,陈秧分.中国省域耕地集约利用态势与驱动力分析[J].地理学报,2014,69(7):907-915.