杠杆率、短债长用与企业表现
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摘要
高杠杆和短债长用是企业面临的两大核心债务问题,本文将其纳入统一的分析框架,基于2000—2015年中国上市公司面板数据,分析其对企业绩效和债务风险的影响,并首次考察了两者的交互效应。研究表明:第一,杠杆率降低了企业总资产回报率并提高了债务风险,但有利于提高净资产回报率,构成企业杠杆融资的微观基础;短债长用既不利于企业绩效又提高债务风险,且加剧了债务风险的隐蔽性和突发性,反映了企业融资期限约束下的被动选择。第二,短债长用与杠杆率存在显著的交互效应,弱化了杠杆率的积极作用,强化了杠杆率的消极影响,恶化了企业的风险融资体征和破产风险。第三,杠杆率与短债长用通过增加企业财务成本和降低研发投入两方面恶化企业绩效。第四,上述影响存在一定的企业异质性和长短期差异。本文为杠杆率研究提供了新的分析视角和经验证据,为深化金融供给侧结构性改革提供了学理支持。
Since the outbreak of the global financial crisis in 2008, the importance of financial stability for economic stability has received increasing attention. Under the "debt-investment" driven growth model, the size of China's non-financial corporate debt has risen rapidly, raising concerns about debt risk. China's policymakers have launched a series of deleveraging measures to solve this issue. In this context, the formation and function of corporate debt is not only an important theoretical issue, but also a major practical issue. High leverage and "short-term debt for long-term use" are two core debt problems faced by Chinese enterprises. Current studies mostly analyze China's debt risk from the perspective of the macro-leverage ratio. However, using the debt-to-GDP ratio as a measure of debt risk does not consider corresponding assets, and there is often a periodic deviation from the micro-leverage ratio. To better understand China's debt problems, it is necessary to focus on the enterprise level to examine the impact and mechanism of micro-leverage. In addition, one factor that cannot be ignored is the common phenomenon of "short-term debt for long-term use" in Chinese enterprises-in other words, a maturity mismatch between debt and assets. China's corporate debt is dominated by short-term debt, which requires continuous rolling financing to support long-term investment. Such a practice is likely to aggravate business difficulties and trigger liquidity risk, which in turn adversely affects enterprise performance and debt risk. More importantly, short-term debt for long-term use is likely to have an interaction effect with leverage ratio, weakening the latter's positive effects while strengthening its negative effects.This paper integrates leverage ratio and short-term debt for long-term use into a unified analytical framework and constructs a series of relevant indicators using panel data drawn from listed companies in China from 2000 to 2015. In particular, the paper decomposes the enterprise debt problem into two dimensions: leverage ratio and short-term debt for long-term use. Using this framework, systematic analysis is carried out from the perspectives of both enterprise performance and debt risk, and the interaction effect between leverage ratio and short-term debt for long-term use is investigated for the first time in the literature.The main findings are as follows. First, leverage ratio reduces return on assets and increases enterprises' probability of risk financing and bankruptcy, but it improves return on equity, which constitutes the micro-foundation of leveraged management. Short-term debt for long-term use is not only bad for business performance but also increases corporate debt risk, reflecting the passive choice of enterprises under the restriction of financing terms. Secondly, there is a significant interaction effect between short-term debt for long-term use and leverage ratio, which weakens the positive effect of leverage and strengthens its negative impacts. Such an interaction effect significantly increases the debt risk of enterprises. Third, mechanism analysis shows that leverage and short-term debt for long-term use can deteriorate enterprise performance by increasing financial costs and reducing R&D. Fourth, heterogeneity analysis shows that for high-growth enterprises and private enterprises, leverage financing is relatively advantageous in supporting business development. Fifth, comparative analysis of long-term and short-term impacts shows that the negative impact on enterprise performance gradually eases over time, but the adverse impact on debt risk persists. The findings of the paper provide new policy implications for resolving debt risks and deleveraging. Firstly, in the process of deleveraging, attention should be paid not only to the leverage ratio itself, but also to firms' debt maturity structure. Secondly, due to the existence of interaction effects, efforts must be made to avoid increasing the degree of short-term debt for long-term use as a cost of implementing the deleveraging policy. Instead, solving the short-term debt for long-term use problem can achieve the same effect as deleveraging. Considering the common predicament among Chinese firms of debt maturity being too short, it is urgent that firms' debt maturity structure be optimized as part of "financial supply side structural reform"; that is, market-oriented reforms of the banking sector and direct financing market.
Since the outbreak of the global financial crisis in 2008, the importance of financial stability for economic stability has received increasing attention. Under the "debt-investment" driven growth model, the size of China's non-financial corporate debt has risen rapidly, raising concerns about debt risk. China's policymakers have launched a series of deleveraging measures to solve this issue. In this context, the formation and function of corporate debt is not only an important theoretical issue, but also a major practical issue. High leverage and "short-term debt for long-term use" are two core debt problems faced by Chinese enterprises. Current studies mostly analyze China's debt risk from the perspective of the macro-leverage ratio. However, using the debt-to-GDP ratio as a measure of debt risk does not consider corresponding assets, and there is often a periodic deviation from the micro-leverage ratio. To better understand China's debt problems, it is necessary to focus on the enterprise level to examine the impact and mechanism of micro-leverage. In addition, one factor that cannot be ignored is the common phenomenon of "short-term debt for long-term use" in Chinese enterprises-in other words, a maturity mismatch between debt and assets. China's corporate debt is dominated by short-term debt, which requires continuous rolling financing to support long-term investment. Such a practice is likely to aggravate business difficulties and trigger liquidity risk, which in turn adversely affects enterprise performance and debt risk. More importantly, short-term debt for long-term use is likely to have an interaction effect with leverage ratio, weakening the latter's positive effects while strengthening its negative effects.This paper integrates leverage ratio and short-term debt for long-term use into a unified analytical framework and constructs a series of relevant indicators using panel data drawn from listed companies in China from 2000 to 2015. In particular, the paper decomposes the enterprise debt problem into two dimensions: leverage ratio and short-term debt for long-term use. Using this framework, systematic analysis is carried out from the perspectives of both enterprise performance and debt risk, and the interaction effect between leverage ratio and short-term debt for long-term use is investigated for the first time in the literature.The main findings are as follows. First, leverage ratio reduces return on assets and increases enterprises' probability of risk financing and bankruptcy, but it improves return on equity, which constitutes the micro-foundation of leveraged management. Short-term debt for long-term use is not only bad for business performance but also increases corporate debt risk, reflecting the passive choice of enterprises under the restriction of financing terms. Secondly, there is a significant interaction effect between short-term debt for long-term use and leverage ratio, which weakens the positive effect of leverage and strengthens its negative impacts. Such an interaction effect significantly increases the debt risk of enterprises. Third, mechanism analysis shows that leverage and short-term debt for long-term use can deteriorate enterprise performance by increasing financial costs and reducing R&D. Fourth, heterogeneity analysis shows that for high-growth enterprises and private enterprises, leverage financing is relatively advantageous in supporting business development. Fifth, comparative analysis of long-term and short-term impacts shows that the negative impact on enterprise performance gradually eases over time, but the adverse impact on debt risk persists. The findings of the paper provide new policy implications for resolving debt risks and deleveraging. Firstly, in the process of deleveraging, attention should be paid not only to the leverage ratio itself, but also to firms' debt maturity structure. Secondly, due to the existence of interaction effects, efforts must be made to avoid increasing the degree of short-term debt for long-term use as a cost of implementing the deleveraging policy. Instead, solving the short-term debt for long-term use problem can achieve the same effect as deleveraging. Considering the common predicament among Chinese firms of debt maturity being too short, it is urgent that firms' debt maturity structure be optimized as part of "financial supply side structural reform"; that is, market-oriented reforms of the banking sector and direct financing market.
引文
范小云、王道平、方意,2011:《我国金融机构的系统性风险贡献测度与监管——基于边际风险贡献与杠杆率的研究》,《南开经济研究》第4期。
方军雄,2010:《民营上市公司真的面临银行贷款歧视吗?》,《管理世界》第11期。
胡援成、刘明艳,2011:《中国上市公司债务期限结构影响因素》,《管理世界》第2期。
纪敏、严宝玉、李宏瑾,2017:《杠杆率结构、水平和金融稳定——理论分析框架和中国经验》,《金融研究》第2期。
李科、徐龙炳,2011:《融资约束、债务能力与公司业绩》,《经济研究》第5期。
刘晓光、刘元春,2018:《杠杆率重估与债务风险再探讨》,《金融研究》第8期。
刘信群、刘江涛,2013:《杠杆率、流动性与经营绩效——中国上市商业银行2004—2011年面板数据分析》,《国际金融研究》第3期。
刘哲希、韩少华、陈彦斌,2016:《“债务—通缩”理论的发展与启示》,《财经问题研究》第6期。
陆瑶、张叶青、贾睿,2017:《“辛迪加”风险投资与企业创新》,《金融研究》第6期。
马红、侯贵生、王元月,2018:《产融结合与我国企业投融资期限错配——基于上市公司经验数据的实证研究》,《南开管理评论》第3期。
饶品贵、姜国华,2013:《货币政策、信贷资源配置与企业业绩》,《管理世界》第3期。
申广军、陈斌开、杨汝岱,2016:《减税能否提振中国经济?——基于中国增值税改革的实证研究》,《经济研究》第11期。
张兆国、何威风、梁志钢,2007:《资本结构与公司绩效——来自中国国有控股公司和民营上市公司的经验证据》,《中国软科学》第12期。
钟凯、程小可、张伟华,2016:《货币政策适度水平与企业“短贷长投”之谜》,《管理世界》第3期。
钟宁桦、刘志阔、何嘉鑫、苏楚林,2016:《我国企业债务的结构性问题》,《经济研究》第7期。
周兵、钟廷勇、徐辉,2016:《企业战略、管理者预期与成本粘性——基于中国上市公司经验证据》,《会计研究》第7期。
Acharya,V.,D.Gale,and T.Yorulmazer,2011,“Rollover Risk and Market Freezes”,Journal of Finance,66(4),1177—1209.
Aghion,P.,G.M.Angeletos,A.Banerjee,and K.Manova,2010,“Volatility and Growth:Credit Constraints and the Composition of Investment”,Journal of Monetary Economics,57(3),246—265.
Altman,E.,1968,“Financial Ratios,Discriminant Analysis and the Prediction of Corporate Bankruptcy”,Journal of Finance,23(4),589—609.
Ang,J.B.,2008,“A Survey of Recent Developments in the Literature of Finance and Growth”,Journal of Economic Surveys,22(3),536—576.
Beck,T.,and R.Levine,2004,“Stock Markets,Banks,and Growth:Panel Evidence”,Journal of Banking & Finance,28(3),423—442.
Berk,J.B.,R.Stanton,and J.Zechner,2010,“Human Capital,Bankruptcy and Capital Structure”,Journal of Finance,65(3),891—926.
Custódio,C.,M.A.Ferreira,and L.Laureano,2013,“Why Are US Firms Using More Short-term Debt”,Journal of Financial Economics,108(1),182—212.
Demarzo,P.M.,and M.J.Fishman,2007,“Optimal Long-term Financial Contracting”,Review of Financial Studies,20(6),2079—2128.
Desbordes,R.,and V.Vicard,2009,“Foreign Direct Investment and Bilateral Investment Treaties:An International Political Perspective”,Journal of Comparative Economics,37(3),372—386.
Diamond,D.W.,1991,“Debt Maturity Structure and Liquidity Risk”,Quarterly Journal of Economics,106(3),709—737.
Fan,J.P.H.,G.J.Twite,and S.Titman,2012,“An International Comparison of Capital Structure and Debt Maturity Choices”,Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis,47(1),23—56.
Fisher,I.,1933,“The Debt Deflation Theory of Great Depressions”,Econometrica,4(1),337—357.
Gopalan,R.,F.Song,and V.Yerramilli,2014,“Debt Maturity Structure and Credit Quality”,Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis,49(4),817—842.
Guariglia,A.,and P.Liu,2014,“To What Extent Do Financing Constraints Affect Chinese Firms’ Innovation Activities”,International Review of Financial Analysis,36,223—240.
Guedes,J.,and T.Opler,1996,“The Determinants of the Maturity of Corporate Debt Issues”,Journal of Finance,51(3),1809—1833.
Harris,M.,and A.Raviv,1990,“Capital Structure and the Informational Role of Debt”,Journal of Finance,45(2),321—349.
Jensen,M.C.,1986,“Agency Costs of Free Cash Flow,Corporate Finance,and Takeovers”,American Economic Review,76(2),323—329.
Melecky,M.,and M.Podpiera,2013,“Institutional Structures of Financial Sector Supervision,their Drivers and Historical Benchmarks”,Journal of Financial Stability,9(3),428—444.
Minsky,H.P.,1986,Stabilizing an Unstable Economy,Yale University Press.
Morck,R.,and M.Nakamura,1999,“Banks and Corporate Control in Japan”,Journal of Finance,54(1),319—339.
Myers,S.C.,1977,“Determinants of Corporate Borrowing”,Journal of Financial Economics,5(2),147—175.
Rajan,R.G.,and L.Zingales,1998,“Financial Dependence and Growth”,American Economic Review,88(3),559—586.
Shleifer,A.,and R.W.Vishny,1997,“A Survey of Corporate Governance”,Journal of Finance,52(2),737—783.
Stock,J.H.,and M.Yogo,2005,“Testing for Weak Instruments in Linear IV Regression”,NBER Technical Working Papers,14(1),80—108.
方军雄,2010:《民营上市公司真的面临银行贷款歧视吗?》,《管理世界》第11期。
胡援成、刘明艳,2011:《中国上市公司债务期限结构影响因素》,《管理世界》第2期。
纪敏、严宝玉、李宏瑾,2017:《杠杆率结构、水平和金融稳定——理论分析框架和中国经验》,《金融研究》第2期。
李科、徐龙炳,2011:《融资约束、债务能力与公司业绩》,《经济研究》第5期。
刘晓光、刘元春,2018:《杠杆率重估与债务风险再探讨》,《金融研究》第8期。
刘信群、刘江涛,2013:《杠杆率、流动性与经营绩效——中国上市商业银行2004—2011年面板数据分析》,《国际金融研究》第3期。
刘哲希、韩少华、陈彦斌,2016:《“债务—通缩”理论的发展与启示》,《财经问题研究》第6期。
陆瑶、张叶青、贾睿,2017:《“辛迪加”风险投资与企业创新》,《金融研究》第6期。
马红、侯贵生、王元月,2018:《产融结合与我国企业投融资期限错配——基于上市公司经验数据的实证研究》,《南开管理评论》第3期。
饶品贵、姜国华,2013:《货币政策、信贷资源配置与企业业绩》,《管理世界》第3期。
申广军、陈斌开、杨汝岱,2016:《减税能否提振中国经济?——基于中国增值税改革的实证研究》,《经济研究》第11期。
张兆国、何威风、梁志钢,2007:《资本结构与公司绩效——来自中国国有控股公司和民营上市公司的经验证据》,《中国软科学》第12期。
钟凯、程小可、张伟华,2016:《货币政策适度水平与企业“短贷长投”之谜》,《管理世界》第3期。
钟宁桦、刘志阔、何嘉鑫、苏楚林,2016:《我国企业债务的结构性问题》,《经济研究》第7期。
周兵、钟廷勇、徐辉,2016:《企业战略、管理者预期与成本粘性——基于中国上市公司经验证据》,《会计研究》第7期。
Acharya,V.,D.Gale,and T.Yorulmazer,2011,“Rollover Risk and Market Freezes”,Journal of Finance,66(4),1177—1209.
Aghion,P.,G.M.Angeletos,A.Banerjee,and K.Manova,2010,“Volatility and Growth:Credit Constraints and the Composition of Investment”,Journal of Monetary Economics,57(3),246—265.
Altman,E.,1968,“Financial Ratios,Discriminant Analysis and the Prediction of Corporate Bankruptcy”,Journal of Finance,23(4),589—609.
Ang,J.B.,2008,“A Survey of Recent Developments in the Literature of Finance and Growth”,Journal of Economic Surveys,22(3),536—576.
Beck,T.,and R.Levine,2004,“Stock Markets,Banks,and Growth:Panel Evidence”,Journal of Banking & Finance,28(3),423—442.
Berk,J.B.,R.Stanton,and J.Zechner,2010,“Human Capital,Bankruptcy and Capital Structure”,Journal of Finance,65(3),891—926.
Custódio,C.,M.A.Ferreira,and L.Laureano,2013,“Why Are US Firms Using More Short-term Debt”,Journal of Financial Economics,108(1),182—212.
Demarzo,P.M.,and M.J.Fishman,2007,“Optimal Long-term Financial Contracting”,Review of Financial Studies,20(6),2079—2128.
Desbordes,R.,and V.Vicard,2009,“Foreign Direct Investment and Bilateral Investment Treaties:An International Political Perspective”,Journal of Comparative Economics,37(3),372—386.
Diamond,D.W.,1991,“Debt Maturity Structure and Liquidity Risk”,Quarterly Journal of Economics,106(3),709—737.
Fan,J.P.H.,G.J.Twite,and S.Titman,2012,“An International Comparison of Capital Structure and Debt Maturity Choices”,Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis,47(1),23—56.
Fisher,I.,1933,“The Debt Deflation Theory of Great Depressions”,Econometrica,4(1),337—357.
Gopalan,R.,F.Song,and V.Yerramilli,2014,“Debt Maturity Structure and Credit Quality”,Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis,49(4),817—842.
Guariglia,A.,and P.Liu,2014,“To What Extent Do Financing Constraints Affect Chinese Firms’ Innovation Activities”,International Review of Financial Analysis,36,223—240.
Guedes,J.,and T.Opler,1996,“The Determinants of the Maturity of Corporate Debt Issues”,Journal of Finance,51(3),1809—1833.
Harris,M.,and A.Raviv,1990,“Capital Structure and the Informational Role of Debt”,Journal of Finance,45(2),321—349.
Jensen,M.C.,1986,“Agency Costs of Free Cash Flow,Corporate Finance,and Takeovers”,American Economic Review,76(2),323—329.
Melecky,M.,and M.Podpiera,2013,“Institutional Structures of Financial Sector Supervision,their Drivers and Historical Benchmarks”,Journal of Financial Stability,9(3),428—444.
Minsky,H.P.,1986,Stabilizing an Unstable Economy,Yale University Press.
Morck,R.,and M.Nakamura,1999,“Banks and Corporate Control in Japan”,Journal of Finance,54(1),319—339.
Myers,S.C.,1977,“Determinants of Corporate Borrowing”,Journal of Financial Economics,5(2),147—175.
Rajan,R.G.,and L.Zingales,1998,“Financial Dependence and Growth”,American Economic Review,88(3),559—586.
Shleifer,A.,and R.W.Vishny,1997,“A Survey of Corporate Governance”,Journal of Finance,52(2),737—783.
Stock,J.H.,and M.Yogo,2005,“Testing for Weak Instruments in Linear IV Regression”,NBER Technical Working Papers,14(1),80—108.
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