中国工业园区生态化发展决策优化方法研究
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摘要
工业是当前中国经济绿色转型升级的关键行业,而工业园区作为工业集聚化发展的主要载体,工业园区生态化发展是解决资源环境问题、实现经济可持续发展的有效途径。本文关注工业园区生态化发展的中长期发展战略和具体方案,致力于通过仿真模拟的方法提出工业园区生态化发展的方向和优化路径,实现研究方法的创新。研究以3E系统(经济—环境—能源)为基础,综合分析工业园区经济发展与能源环境之间的耦合关系,并结合动态投入产出模型和系统动力学模型构建生态化发展决策模型,通过最优化动态模拟方法开展趋势预测和路径研究。通过辛集工业园区的实证和案例研究,对其生态化发展路径进行深入研究,验证了研究方法的科学性和可靠性,能够为工业园区生态化发展提供实践指导。本文为工业园区生态化发展规划提供新的研究方法,为制定合理有效的工业园区综合战略和实施路径提供科学依据。
Secondary industry is a key industry for current Chinese economic green transformation and upgrading. As the main carrier of the agglomeration development of secondary industry, Chinese Industry Park's ecological development is an effective way to improve the trade-off between economic development and resource environmental constraints. This research aims to solve the problems of mid-long term ecological development of China's Industry Parks, establish research methodology innovation by simulation approach. This study reveals the coupling mechanism between economy and ecological environment based on 3 E(Economy-Environment-Energy) system, develops the ecological optimization decision-making method and a simulation policy simulator, to explore the laws and trends of the coordinated development of the economy and environment in Industry Park. Using Xinji Industrial Park as case study to verify the scientificity and reliability of the method. This research can provide a scientific basis for formulating reasonable, effective strategies and implementing approach of China's Industry Park.
Secondary industry is a key industry for current Chinese economic green transformation and upgrading. As the main carrier of the agglomeration development of secondary industry, Chinese Industry Park's ecological development is an effective way to improve the trade-off between economic development and resource environmental constraints. This research aims to solve the problems of mid-long term ecological development of China's Industry Parks, establish research methodology innovation by simulation approach. This study reveals the coupling mechanism between economy and ecological environment based on 3 E(Economy-Environment-Energy) system, develops the ecological optimization decision-making method and a simulation policy simulator, to explore the laws and trends of the coordinated development of the economy and environment in Industry Park. Using Xinji Industrial Park as case study to verify the scientificity and reliability of the method. This research can provide a scientific basis for formulating reasonable, effective strategies and implementing approach of China's Industry Park.
引文
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[6]杨挺,任旭东,赵畅,等.中国化工产业园区化的驱动机制:基于社会——生态系统框架下的博弈论分析[J].中国环境管理,2019,11(01):38-46.
[7] WANG S, XU L, YANG F L, et al. Assessment of water ecological carrying capacity under the two policies in Tieling City on the basis of the integrated system dynamics model[J]. Science of the Total Environment. 2014, 472:1070-108.
[8] COBULOGLU H I, Büyüktahtakén I E. A stochastic multi-criteria decision analysis for sustainable biomass crop selection[J]. Expert Systems with Applications. 2015, 42(15-16):6065-6074.
[9] JING S, LU H W, ZHANG Y, et al. Vulnerability assessment of urban ecosystems driven by water resources, human health and atmospheric environment[J]. Journal of Hydrology. 2016, 536:457-470.
[10] XIANG N, XU F, SHI M J, et al. Assessing the potential of water reclamation and its impacts on water environment and economy:dynamic scenarios analysis of Tianjin, China[J]. Water Policy. 2015,17:391-408.
[11]王如松,李锋,韩宝龙,等.城市复合生态及生态空间管理[J].生态学报,2014,4(1):1-11.
[12] CHEN B, YANG Q, LI J S. Decoupling analysis on energy consumption,embodied GHG emissions and economic growth-The case study of Macao[J]. Renewable&Sustainable Energy Reviews. 2017, 67:662-672.
[2]范育鹏,乔琦.基于工业生态化建设的工业园区环境管理研究[J].中国环境管理,2016,8(05):80-84.
[3] LONG S, ZHAO L, LIU H B, et al. A Monte Carlo-Based integrated model to optimize the cost and pollution reduction in wastewater treatment processes in a typical comprehensive industrial park in China[J].Science of the Total Environment. 2019, 647:1–10.
[4]鲁圣鹏,李雪芹,刘光富.生态工业园区产业共生网络形成影响因素实证研究[J].科技管理研究,2018,38(08):194-200.
[5]陈瑶,付军,邵晓龙,等.工业园区水污染防治的问题与对策探讨[J].中国环境管理,2016,8(02):99-101.
[6]杨挺,任旭东,赵畅,等.中国化工产业园区化的驱动机制:基于社会——生态系统框架下的博弈论分析[J].中国环境管理,2019,11(01):38-46.
[7] WANG S, XU L, YANG F L, et al. Assessment of water ecological carrying capacity under the two policies in Tieling City on the basis of the integrated system dynamics model[J]. Science of the Total Environment. 2014, 472:1070-108.
[8] COBULOGLU H I, Büyüktahtakén I E. A stochastic multi-criteria decision analysis for sustainable biomass crop selection[J]. Expert Systems with Applications. 2015, 42(15-16):6065-6074.
[9] JING S, LU H W, ZHANG Y, et al. Vulnerability assessment of urban ecosystems driven by water resources, human health and atmospheric environment[J]. Journal of Hydrology. 2016, 536:457-470.
[10] XIANG N, XU F, SHI M J, et al. Assessing the potential of water reclamation and its impacts on water environment and economy:dynamic scenarios analysis of Tianjin, China[J]. Water Policy. 2015,17:391-408.
[11]王如松,李锋,韩宝龙,等.城市复合生态及生态空间管理[J].生态学报,2014,4(1):1-11.
[12] CHEN B, YANG Q, LI J S. Decoupling analysis on energy consumption,embodied GHG emissions and economic growth-The case study of Macao[J]. Renewable&Sustainable Energy Reviews. 2017, 67:662-672.
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