基于GRA-DID方法的海洋产业政策有效性分析
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摘要
随着国际海洋产业的转型,中国海洋产业在成为国家支柱型产业的同时面临着国际与国内的双重挑战。为了适应海洋产业的快速变化,促进中国海洋产业结构的优化升级,从海洋产业政策供给角度,分析海洋产业政府分类治理及产业政策演化是海洋产业保持长期高质量发展的重要理论基础与必经之路。根据中国海洋经济政策演变过程,将中国的海洋政策分为五个时期,分别梳理每个时期我国海洋经济综合管理的主要政策,聚焦"十二五"规划中海洋产业政策的转向,从海洋产业的发展历史角度,厘清海洋政策的发展脉络。为了验证产业政策的有效性,本文通过使用2001-2017年中国海洋经济各行业数据,采用DID估计方法,实证检验海洋政策的变化是否对于海洋经济产业结构的发展带来显著的影响,评价海洋政策的影响,进而探索我国海洋政策的分类治理路径并提出相应的意见建议。研究发现,各个海洋产业在发展过程既存在一定的相似性,又对不同的政策环境存在依赖关系,需要差异化的海洋经济政策支撑,在制定海洋产业政策的过程中,合理海洋产业发展阶段划分是海洋经济平稳快速发展的重要保障与前提,分类的海洋政策能够为海洋产业生态的优化发展提供持久有序的环境保障。
With the transformation of international marine industry, China's marine industry is facing both international and domestic challenges while becoming a national pillar industry. In order to adapt to the rapid changes of marine industry and promote the optimization and upgrading of China's marine industrial structure, from the perspective of marine industrial policy supply, it is an important theoretical basis for the long-term high-quality development of marine industry to analyze the government classification governance and industrial policy evolution of marine industry. According to the evolution process of China's marine economic policy, China's marine policy is divided into five periods, and the main policies of China's integrated marine economic management in each period are sorted out separately. Considering the shift of marine industry policy in the 12 th Five-Year Plan, this paper clarifies the development context of marine policy from the perspective of the development history of marine industry. In order to verify the effectiveness of industrial policy, this paper uses the data of China's marine economy from 2001 to 2017 and the DID estimation method to empirically test whether the change of marine policy has a significant impact on the development of marine economic industrial structure and to evaluate the impact of marine policy to Explore the Classified Governance Path of China's marine policy. It is found that there are similarities and dependencies on different policy environments in the development process of various marine industries. In the process of formulating marine industry policy, reasonable division of development stages of marine industry is an important guarantee and prerequisite for stable and rapid development of marine economy.Classified marine policies can provide a lasting and orderly environmental protection for the optimal development of marine industry ecology.
With the transformation of international marine industry, China's marine industry is facing both international and domestic challenges while becoming a national pillar industry. In order to adapt to the rapid changes of marine industry and promote the optimization and upgrading of China's marine industrial structure, from the perspective of marine industrial policy supply, it is an important theoretical basis for the long-term high-quality development of marine industry to analyze the government classification governance and industrial policy evolution of marine industry. According to the evolution process of China's marine economic policy, China's marine policy is divided into five periods, and the main policies of China's integrated marine economic management in each period are sorted out separately. Considering the shift of marine industry policy in the 12 th Five-Year Plan, this paper clarifies the development context of marine policy from the perspective of the development history of marine industry. In order to verify the effectiveness of industrial policy, this paper uses the data of China's marine economy from 2001 to 2017 and the DID estimation method to empirically test whether the change of marine policy has a significant impact on the development of marine economic industrial structure and to evaluate the impact of marine policy to Explore the Classified Governance Path of China's marine policy. It is found that there are similarities and dependencies on different policy environments in the development process of various marine industries. In the process of formulating marine industry policy, reasonable division of development stages of marine industry is an important guarantee and prerequisite for stable and rapid development of marine economy.Classified marine policies can provide a lasting and orderly environmental protection for the optimal development of marine industry ecology.
引文
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[3]马仁锋,李加林,赵建吉,庄佩君.中国海洋产业的结构与布局研究展望[J].地理研究,2013,32:902-914.Ma R F,Li J L,Zhao J J,Zhuang P J.Progress on the Research of Maritime Industry Structure and Layout in China[J].Geographical Research,2013,32:902-914.
[4]李福柱,孙明艳,历梦泉.山东半岛蓝色经济区海洋产业结构异质性演进及路径研究[J].华东经济管理,2011,25:12-14.LI F Z,SUN M Y,LI M Q.The Heterogeneous Evolution of Marine Industry Structure in Shandong Peninsula Blue-economic Zone[J].East China Economic Management,2011,25:12-14.
[5]黄盛.区域海洋产业结构调整优化研究--以环渤海地区为例[J].经济问题探索,2013,10:24-28.Huang S.Study on the Adjustment and Optimization of Regional Marine Industrial Structure:Taking the Bohai Rim as an Example[J].Inquiry Into Economic Issues,2013,10:24-28.
[6]孙才志,杨羽頔,邹玮.海洋经济调整优化背景下的环渤海海洋产业布局研究[J].中国软科学,2013,10:83-95.Sun C Z,Yang Y D,Zou W.The Study on the Distribution of Marine Industry in Bohai Sea Ring Area in the Context of Adjustment and Optimization in Marine Economy[J].China Soft Science,2013,10:83-95.
[7]徐仪佑.美国海运政策演变及中国海运政策趋向建议[J].世界海运,1999,4:36-38Xu Y Y.Evolution of U.S.Maritime Policy and Suggestions on China’s Maritime Policy Trends[J].World Maritime,1999,4:36-38.
[8]刘婧,郭圣乾,金传印.经济增长、经济结构与就业质量耦合研究--基于2005-2014年宏观数据的实证[J].宏观经济研究,2016,5:99-105.Liu J,Guo S Q,Jin C Y.Coupling Study of Economic Growth,Economic Structure and Employment Quality:Empirical Research Based on Macro Data 2005-2014[J].Macroeconomic Research,2016,5:99-105.
[9]Durlauf,S.N.Time Series Properties of Aggregate Output Fluctuations[J].Journal of Econometrics,2004,56(1):39-56.
[10]Beckerman,P.Some Arguments for(Moderately)Capital-Intensive Development,Even in Labor-Abundant Nations[J].World Development,1978,6(4):533-543.
[11]纪建悦,王奇.基于随机前沿分析模型的我国海洋经济效率测度及其影响因素研究[J].中国海洋大学学报:社会科学版,2018,1:43-49.Ji J Y,Wang Q.A Study on the Marine Economic Efficiency and Its Influencing Factors in China Based on Stochastic Frontier Analysis Model[J].Journal of Ocean University of China(Social Science Edition),2018,1:43-49.