全球价值链分工对中日制造业贸易隐含碳的影响
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摘要
基于总贸易核算的方法,对中日贸易隐含碳进行了重新核算,发现2000—2009年中国生产了中日贸易隐含碳总量的75.14%,日本消费了中日贸易隐含碳总量的69.39%。在此基础上,利用动态GMM模型研究了中国制造业GVC地位指数、GVC参与度同中日贸易隐含碳中的中国生产碳、日本消费碳之间的关系。研究发现:(1)中国制造业GVC地位指数同中国生产碳、日本消费碳呈现倒U型关系。(2)中国大部分中低技术产业已经突破拐点,处于GVC地位指数越高,中国生产碳、日本消费碳越低的阶段;高技术水平产业目前尚未突破拐点。(3)中国制造业GVC参与度指数同中国生产碳、日本消费碳呈现负向关系。为减少中日贸易隐含碳,建议:(1)今后两国可以首先聚焦于中国中低技术水平制造业的合作;(2)中日之间应该采取合作措施,提高中国高技术水平制造业的GVC地位指数;(3)继续深化中国制造业参与GVC的程度,可以有效降低中日间贸易隐含碳。
Based on the total trade accounting,this paper re-calculates the embodied carbon in Sino-Japanese trade.It is found that China produced 75.14% of the total embodied carbon while Japan consumed 69.39% in Sino-Japanese trade between 2000 and 2009.Furthermore,the dynamic GMM model is used to investigate how GVC position index and GVC participation index of China's manufacturing relate to China's production-based carbon emissions(PCE) and Japan's consumption-based carbon emissions(CCE) during their mutual trade.It is concluded that firstly,GVC position index of China's manufacturing has an inverted U-shape relationship with China's PCE and Japan's CCE; secondly,most low-and medium-technology industries have broken through the inflection point.The higher the GVC status index is,the lower the carbon production in China and consumption in Japan will be.High-tech industry has not yet broken through the inflection point;thirdly,the GVC participation index of China's manufacturing industry has a negative relationship with China's carbon production and Japan's carbon consumption.In order to reduce the implied carbon in Sino-Japanese trade,suggestions are presented as follows:(1) in the future,the two countries can firstly focus on the cooperation of China's medium-low technology manufacturing industry;(2) China and Japan should take cooperative measures to improve the GVC status index of China's high-tech manufacturing industry;(3) further deepening the participation of China's manufacturing industry in GVC can effectively reduce the implied carbon in Sino-Japan trade.
Based on the total trade accounting,this paper re-calculates the embodied carbon in Sino-Japanese trade.It is found that China produced 75.14% of the total embodied carbon while Japan consumed 69.39% in Sino-Japanese trade between 2000 and 2009.Furthermore,the dynamic GMM model is used to investigate how GVC position index and GVC participation index of China's manufacturing relate to China's production-based carbon emissions(PCE) and Japan's consumption-based carbon emissions(CCE) during their mutual trade.It is concluded that firstly,GVC position index of China's manufacturing has an inverted U-shape relationship with China's PCE and Japan's CCE; secondly,most low-and medium-technology industries have broken through the inflection point.The higher the GVC status index is,the lower the carbon production in China and consumption in Japan will be.High-tech industry has not yet broken through the inflection point;thirdly,the GVC participation index of China's manufacturing industry has a negative relationship with China's carbon production and Japan's carbon consumption.In order to reduce the implied carbon in Sino-Japanese trade,suggestions are presented as follows:(1) in the future,the two countries can firstly focus on the cooperation of China's medium-low technology manufacturing industry;(2) China and Japan should take cooperative measures to improve the GVC status index of China's high-tech manufacturing industry;(3) further deepening the participation of China's manufacturing industry in GVC can effectively reduce the implied carbon in Sino-Japan trade.
引文
[1] 余丽丽,彭水军.中国区域嵌入全球价值链的碳排放转移效应研究[J].统计研究,2018(4).
[2] 乔小勇,李泽怡,相楠.中间品贸易隐含碳排放流向追溯及多区域投入产出数据库对比——基于WIOD、Eora、EXIOBASE数据的研究[J].财贸经济,2018(1).
[3] 刘会政,宗喆,李国正.嵌入全球价值链对出口贸易碳排放的影响——基于中国制造业行业层面数据的实证研究[J].广西社会科学,2018(7).
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[7] 詹晶,叶静.中美贸易隐含碳测度及影响因素研究[J].广东财经大学学报,2014(4).
[8] 蒋雪梅,刘轶芳.全球贸易隐含碳排放格局的变动及其影响因素[J].统计研究,2013(9).
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[11]潘安.全球价值链分工对中国对外贸易隐含碳排放的影响[J].国际经贸探索,2017(3).
[12]张红霞,张哲,盛科荣.全球价值链分工地位对中国制造业碳排放的影响——基于STIRPAT模型的实证研究[J].生态经济,2018(4).
[13]潘安,吴肖丽.全球价值链分工下的中日贸易隐含碳排放研究[J].现代日本经济,2018(2).
[14]潘安.全球价值链视角下的中美贸易隐含碳研究[J].统计研究,2018(1).
[15]Koopman,R.,Z.Wang,S.J.Wei.Tracing value-added and double counting in gross exports[J].Social Science Electronic Publishing,2014(2).
[16]王直,魏尚进,祝坤福.总贸易核算法:官方贸易统计与全球价值链的度量[J].中国社会科学,2015(9).
[17]尹伟华.中日制造业参与全球价值链分工模式及地位分析——基于世界投入产出表[J].经济理论与经济管理,2016(5).
[18]李善同,何建武,刘云中.全球价值链视角下中国国内价值链分工测算研究[J].管理评论,2018(5).
[19]Koopman,R.,W.M.Powers,Z.Wang.Give credit where credit is due:Tracing value added in global production chains[J].National Bureau of Economic Research,2010.
[20]盛斌,陈帅.全球价值链、出口国内附加值与比较优势:基于跨国样本的研究[J].东南大学学报(哲学社会科学版),2016(6).
[21]Hansen,B.E.Threshold effects in non-dynamic panels:Estimation,testing and inference[J].Journal of Econometrics,1999(2).
(1)参见http://www.wiod.org/database/wiots13。
(2)参见http://www.wiod.org/database/eas13。
(3)参见http://www.wiod.org/database/wiots13。
(4)参见http://www.wiod.org/database/eas13。
[2] 乔小勇,李泽怡,相楠.中间品贸易隐含碳排放流向追溯及多区域投入产出数据库对比——基于WIOD、Eora、EXIOBASE数据的研究[J].财贸经济,2018(1).
[3] 刘会政,宗喆,李国正.嵌入全球价值链对出口贸易碳排放的影响——基于中国制造业行业层面数据的实证研究[J].广西社会科学,2018(7).
[4] 孟渤,格林·皮特斯,王直.追溯全球价值链里的中国二氧化碳排放[J].环境经济研究,2016(1).
[5] Wu,R.,Y.Geng,H.Dong,et al.Changes of CO2 emissions embodied in China-Japan trade:Drivers and implications[J].Journal of Cleaner Production,2016,112.
[6] 钱志权,杨来科.东亚垂直分工对中国对外贸易隐含碳的影响研究——基于MRIO-SDA方法跨期比较[J].资源科学,2016(9).
[7] 詹晶,叶静.中美贸易隐含碳测度及影响因素研究[J].广东财经大学学报,2014(4).
[8] 蒋雪梅,刘轶芳.全球贸易隐含碳排放格局的变动及其影响因素[J].统计研究,2013(9).
[9] 邱强,李庆庆.中国进出口贸易隐含碳排放测算及驱动因素研究[J].经济管理,2012(11).
[10]杜运苏,张为付.中国出口贸易隐含碳排放增长及其驱动因素研究[J].国际贸易问题,2012(3).
[11]潘安.全球价值链分工对中国对外贸易隐含碳排放的影响[J].国际经贸探索,2017(3).
[12]张红霞,张哲,盛科荣.全球价值链分工地位对中国制造业碳排放的影响——基于STIRPAT模型的实证研究[J].生态经济,2018(4).
[13]潘安,吴肖丽.全球价值链分工下的中日贸易隐含碳排放研究[J].现代日本经济,2018(2).
[14]潘安.全球价值链视角下的中美贸易隐含碳研究[J].统计研究,2018(1).
[15]Koopman,R.,Z.Wang,S.J.Wei.Tracing value-added and double counting in gross exports[J].Social Science Electronic Publishing,2014(2).
[16]王直,魏尚进,祝坤福.总贸易核算法:官方贸易统计与全球价值链的度量[J].中国社会科学,2015(9).
[17]尹伟华.中日制造业参与全球价值链分工模式及地位分析——基于世界投入产出表[J].经济理论与经济管理,2016(5).
[18]李善同,何建武,刘云中.全球价值链视角下中国国内价值链分工测算研究[J].管理评论,2018(5).
[19]Koopman,R.,W.M.Powers,Z.Wang.Give credit where credit is due:Tracing value added in global production chains[J].National Bureau of Economic Research,2010.
[20]盛斌,陈帅.全球价值链、出口国内附加值与比较优势:基于跨国样本的研究[J].东南大学学报(哲学社会科学版),2016(6).
[21]Hansen,B.E.Threshold effects in non-dynamic panels:Estimation,testing and inference[J].Journal of Econometrics,1999(2).
(1)参见http://www.wiod.org/database/wiots13。
(2)参见http://www.wiod.org/database/eas13。
(3)参见http://www.wiod.org/database/wiots13。
(4)参见http://www.wiod.org/database/eas13。