旅游交通碳足迹与旅游经济增长关系研究
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摘要
基于向量自回归模型,运用协整检验、格兰杰因果分析、脉冲相应和方差分解来研究旅游交通碳足迹与旅游经济增长之间的动态关系。结果表明:国内旅游收入、国际旅游收入与旅游交通碳足迹之间存在长期正向均衡关系;国内旅游收入与旅游交通碳足迹存在单向因果关系,国内旅游经济增长构成旅游交通碳足迹的Granger原因。基于上述结论,提出发展旅游经济要坚持生态文明的发展理念与"节能减排"的发展目标,实现旅游业低碳化发展。
Based on the VAR model, the dynamic relationship between tourism traffic carbon footprint and tourism economic growth was studied by co-integration test, Granger causality analysis,impulse correspondence and variance decomposition. The results showed that:(a) There was a long-term positive equilibrium between domestic tourism income, international tourism income and tourism traffic carbon footprint;(b) There was a one-way causal relationship between domestic tourism income and tourism traffic carbon footprint;(c) Domestic tourism economic growth constituted the Granger cause of tourism traffic carbon footprint. Based on the above conclusions, it was proposed that the development of tourism economy should adhere to the development concept of ecological civilization and the development goal of "energy saving and emission reduction", so as to realize the low-carbon development of tourism.
Based on the VAR model, the dynamic relationship between tourism traffic carbon footprint and tourism economic growth was studied by co-integration test, Granger causality analysis,impulse correspondence and variance decomposition. The results showed that:(a) There was a long-term positive equilibrium between domestic tourism income, international tourism income and tourism traffic carbon footprint;(b) There was a one-way causal relationship between domestic tourism income and tourism traffic carbon footprint;(c) Domestic tourism economic growth constituted the Granger cause of tourism traffic carbon footprint. Based on the above conclusions, it was proposed that the development of tourism economy should adhere to the development concept of ecological civilization and the development goal of "energy saving and emission reduction", so as to realize the low-carbon development of tourism.
引文
[1]刘畅，韩梅，王洪桥，等.长白山景区旅游交通碳足迹时空结构研究[J].生态经济，2018,34(04):70-74.
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[6]包战雄，袁书琪，陈光水.不同游客吸引半径景区国内旅游交通碳排放特征比较[J].地理科学，2012,32(10):1168-1175.
[7]杜鹏，杨蕾.中国旅游交通碳足迹特征分析与低碳出行策略研究[J].生态经济，2015,31(2):59-63+74.
[8]罗芬，王怀採，钟永德.旅游者交通碳足迹空间分布研究[J].中国人口·资源与环境，2014,24(2):38-46.
[9]符淼，孙宇.交通碳税对我国碳排放、社会福利及税收收入的影响分析———基于TREMOVE模型[J].重庆工商大学学报（社会科学版），2015,32(2):8-15.
[10]魏艳旭，孙根年，马丽君，等.中国旅游交通碳排放及地区差异的初步估算[J].陕西师范大学学报（自然科学版），2012,40(2):76-84.
[11]王凯，李娟，席建超.中国旅游经济增长与碳排放的耦合关系研究[J].旅游学刊，2014,29(6):24-33.
[12]李文慧，李振国，余光辉，等.基于LMDI法的湖南省碳排放强度影响因素解析[J].中国环境管理干部学院学报，2018,28(5):50-54.
[2] PAUL PEETERS,GHISLAIN DUBOIS.Tourism travel under climate change mitigation constraints[J].Journal of Transport Geography,2009,18(3):447-457.
[3] GOSSLING S,SCOTT D,HALL C M.Inter-market variability in CO2emission-intensities in tourism:implications for destination marketing and carbon management[J].Tourism Management,2015,46(2):203-212.
[4] UNWTO UNEP WMO.Climate change and tourism-respon-ding to global challenges[R].Madrid:UNWTO,UNEP,2008.
[5]孙晋坤，章锦河，汤国荣，等.旅游交通碳排放研究进展与启示[J].中国人口·资源与环境，2016,26(5):73-82.
[6]包战雄，袁书琪，陈光水.不同游客吸引半径景区国内旅游交通碳排放特征比较[J].地理科学，2012,32(10):1168-1175.
[7]杜鹏，杨蕾.中国旅游交通碳足迹特征分析与低碳出行策略研究[J].生态经济，2015,31(2):59-63+74.
[8]罗芬，王怀採，钟永德.旅游者交通碳足迹空间分布研究[J].中国人口·资源与环境，2014,24(2):38-46.
[9]符淼，孙宇.交通碳税对我国碳排放、社会福利及税收收入的影响分析———基于TREMOVE模型[J].重庆工商大学学报（社会科学版），2015,32(2):8-15.
[10]魏艳旭，孙根年，马丽君，等.中国旅游交通碳排放及地区差异的初步估算[J].陕西师范大学学报（自然科学版），2012,40(2):76-84.
[11]王凯，李娟，席建超.中国旅游经济增长与碳排放的耦合关系研究[J].旅游学刊，2014,29(6):24-33.
[12]李文慧，李振国，余光辉，等.基于LMDI法的湖南省碳排放强度影响因素解析[J].中国环境管理干部学院学报，2018,28(5):50-54.