基于贝叶斯理论的泥石流参数概率模型识别方法
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摘要
在泥石流风险评估与防治中,需要根据既有观测数据建立泥石流参数的概率模型(如总流量Qtotal和最大冲击力Pmax的概率分布),计算泥石流超越概率,从而为泥石流灾害评估和防治措施设计提供参考依据.然而,由于观测数据受到多种不确定性因素(比如降雨强度不确定性、岩土体参数变异性以及测量误差)的影响,导致所计算的超越概率具有波动性或不确定性,传统方法中超越概率的点估计值无法合理地考虑其波动性的影响.基于此提出了一种基于Qtotal和Pmax观测数据识别泥石流参数概率模型的贝叶斯方法.根据所提方法识别的泥石流参数概率模型不仅可以计算泥石流的超越概率,还能够合理地考虑超越概率的波动性对泥石流灾害风险水平的影响.以蒋家沟泥石流观测数据为例验证了所提出的方法.结果表明:忽略基于观测数据所计算的超越概率的波动性会导致不保守的风险评估结果.
In quantitative risk assessment and management of debris flow,it is necessary to develop probabilistic model for debris flow quantities,e.g.total discharge Qtotaland maximum impact pressure Pmax,and calculate the exceedance probability of debris flow to provide reliable references for hazard assessment and/or the design of mitigation strategies.However,this is a nontrivial task because observation data is affected by various uncertainties e.g.rainfall uncertainties,inherent variability of geotechnical properties and measurement errors,which will cause fluctuation or uncertainty in the estimated exceedance probability;while the point estimation of exceedance probability based on conventional method cannot consider the uncertainty.This paper proposes a Bayesian method to identify the probabilistic model for quantitative risk assessment of debris flow based on observation data of Qtotaland Pmax.The probabilistic model obtained from the proposed method provides not only the exceedance probability but also its associated uncertainty.For illustration,the proposed method is applied to developing the probabilistic model of Qtotaland Pmaxfor quantitative risk assessment at Jiangjiagou Ravine,China.The results show that ignoring the uncertainty in the exceedance probability estimation based on observation data leads to unconservative risk assessment results.
In quantitative risk assessment and management of debris flow,it is necessary to develop probabilistic model for debris flow quantities,e.g.total discharge Qtotaland maximum impact pressure Pmax,and calculate the exceedance probability of debris flow to provide reliable references for hazard assessment and/or the design of mitigation strategies.However,this is a nontrivial task because observation data is affected by various uncertainties e.g.rainfall uncertainties,inherent variability of geotechnical properties and measurement errors,which will cause fluctuation or uncertainty in the estimated exceedance probability;while the point estimation of exceedance probability based on conventional method cannot consider the uncertainty.This paper proposes a Bayesian method to identify the probabilistic model for quantitative risk assessment of debris flow based on observation data of Qtotaland Pmax.The probabilistic model obtained from the proposed method provides not only the exceedance probability but also its associated uncertainty.For illustration,the proposed method is applied to developing the probabilistic model of Qtotaland Pmaxfor quantitative risk assessment at Jiangjiagou Ravine,China.The results show that ignoring the uncertainty in the exceedance probability estimation based on observation data leads to unconservative risk assessment results.
引文
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[23]康志成,崔鹏,韦方强,等.中国科学院东川泥石流观测研究站观测实验资料集(1961-1984)[M].北京:科学出版社,2006.Kang Zhicheng,Cui Peng,Wei Fangqiang,et al.Data Collection of Dongchuan Debris Flow Observation and Research Station,Chinese Academy of Sciences(1961-1984)[M].Beijing:Science Press,2006.
[24]康志成,崔鹏,韦方强,等.中国科学院东川泥石流观测研究站观测实验资料集(1995-2000)[M].北京:科学出版社,2007.Kang Zhicheng,Cui Peng,Wei Fangqiang,et al.Data Collection of Dongchuan Debris Flow Observation and Research Station,Chinese Academy of Sciences(1995-2000)[M].Beijing:Science Press,2007.
[2]Eidsvig U M K,Papathoma-k9hle M,Du J,et al.Quantification of model uncertainty in debris flow vulnerability assessment[J].Engineering Geology,2014,181:15-26.
[3]Gartner J E,Cannon S H,Santi P M.Empirical models for predicting volumes of sediment deposited by debris flows and sediment-laden floods in the transverse ranges of southern California[J].Engineering Geology,2014,176:45-56.
[4]周必凡,李德基,罗德富,等.泥石流防治指南[M].北京:科学出版社,1991:109-183.Zhou Bifan,Li Deji,Luo Defu,et al.Guidelines of Countermeasures for Debris Flow[M].Beijing:Science Press,1991:109-183.
[5]Takahashi T.Debris Flow:Mechanics,Prediction and Countermeasures[M].2nd edition.London:CRCPress,2014:429-515.
[6]Phoon K K,Kulhawy F H.Characterization of geotechnical variability[J].Canadian Geotechnical Journal,1999,36(4):612-624.
[7]Van Steijn H.Debris-flow magnitude-frequency relationships for mountainous regions of Central and Northwest Europe[J].Geomorphology,1996,15(3-4):259-273.
[8]Zimmermann M,Mani P,Romang H.Magnitude-frequency aspects of alpine debris flows[J].Eclogae Geologicae Helvetiae,1997,90(3):415-420.
[9]Liu J J,Li Y,Su P C,et al.Magnitude-frequency relations in debris flow[J].Environmental Geology,2008,55(6):1345-1354.
[10]Hong Y,Wang J P,Li D Q,et al.Statistical and probabilistic analyses of impact pressure and discharge of debris flow from 139events during 1961and 2000at Jiangjia Ravine,China[J].Engineering Geology,2015,187:122-134.
[11]Nelsen R B.An Introduction to Copulas[M].2nd edition.New York:Springer Science&Business Media,2007:10-28.
[12]张蕾,唐小松,李典庆,等.基于Copula函数的岩土结构物系统可靠度分析[J].岩土力学,2016,37(1):193-202.Zhang Lei,Tang Xiaosong,Li Dianqing,et al.System reliability analysis of geotechnical structures based on the Copula function[J].Rock and Soil Mechanics,2016,37(1):193-202.
[13]唐小松,李典庆,周创兵,等.联合分布函数构造的Copula函数方法及结构可靠度分析[J].工程力学,2013,30(12):8-17.Tang Xiaosong,Li Dianqing,Zhou Chuangbing,et al.Modeling bivariate distribution using copulas and its application to component reliability analysis[J].Engineering Mechanics,2013,30(12):8-17.
[14]唐小松,李典庆,周创兵,等.基于Copula函数的抗剪强度参数间相关性模拟及边坡可靠度分析[J].岩土工程学报,2012,34(12):2284-2291.Tang Xiaosong,Li Dianqing,Zhou Chuangbing,et al.Modeling dependence between shear strength parameters using Copulas and its effect on slope reliability[J].Chinese Journal of Geotechnical Engineering,2012,34(12):2284-2291.
[15]Yuen K V.Recent developments of Bayesian model class selection and applications in civil engineering[J].Structural Safety,2010,32(5):338-346.
[16]Cao Z J,Wang Y,Li D Q.Quantification of prior knowledge in geotechnical site characterization[J].Engineering Geology,2016,203:107-116.
[17]Wang Y,Au S K,Cao Z J.Bayesian approach for probabilistic characterization of sand friction angles[J].Engineering Geology,2010,114:354-363.
[18]Straub D,Papaioannou I.Bayesian updating with structural reliability methods[J].Journal of Engineering Mechanics,2015,141(3):04014134.
[19]Au S K,Beck J L.Estimation of small failure probabilities in high dimensions by subset simulation[J].Probabilistic Engineering Mechanics,2010,16(4):263-277.
[20]李典庆,肖特,曹子君,等.基于高效随机有限元法的边坡风险评估[J].岩土力学,2016,37(7):1994-2003.Li Dianqing,Xiao Te,Cao Zijun,et al.Slope risk assessment using efficient random finite element method[J].Rock and Soil Mechanics,2016,37(7):1994-2003.
[21]Cui P,Chen X,Wang Y,et al.Jiangjia Ravine Debris Flows in South-Western China[M].Berlin:Springer,2005:565-594.
[22]张军,熊刚.云南蒋家沟泥石流运动观测资料集(1987-1994)[M].北京:科学出版社,1997.Zhang Jun,Xiong Gang.Data Collection of Kinematic Observation of Debris Flow in Jiangjia Ravine,Dongchuan,Yunnan(1987-1994)[M].Beijing:Science Press,1997.
[23]康志成,崔鹏,韦方强,等.中国科学院东川泥石流观测研究站观测实验资料集(1961-1984)[M].北京:科学出版社,2006.Kang Zhicheng,Cui Peng,Wei Fangqiang,et al.Data Collection of Dongchuan Debris Flow Observation and Research Station,Chinese Academy of Sciences(1961-1984)[M].Beijing:Science Press,2006.
[24]康志成,崔鹏,韦方强,等.中国科学院东川泥石流观测研究站观测实验资料集(1995-2000)[M].北京:科学出版社,2007.Kang Zhicheng,Cui Peng,Wei Fangqiang,et al.Data Collection of Dongchuan Debris Flow Observation and Research Station,Chinese Academy of Sciences(1995-2000)[M].Beijing:Science Press,2007.
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