华北云特征参数与降水相关性的研究
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摘要
利用河北省、河南省和山西省2013—2014年的每日10—15时逐时FY2E卫星反演得到的云结构特征参数和地面小时降水,统计分析了云顶高度、云顶温度、云光学厚度和云粒子有效半径等4类云结构特征参数与地面降水的关系。主要结论有:随着云光学厚度的增加,降水概率呈增加趋势。云光学厚度比其他云参数对降水更具有指示意义,当云光学厚度大于20时,降水概率显著增大。双参数、多参数组合下,对地面是否出现降水的判断和识别要优于单个云参数的判别结果。4类云参数中,云光学厚度与降水强度呈正相关关系,对降水强度的影响最为显著;云顶温度和云顶高度对降水强度的影响次之;云粒子有效半径与降水强度的关系不明显。地面降水时,当云光学厚度小于20或云光学厚度介于21—30、云顶温度大于-15℃时,出现小雨的概率最大;当云光学厚度介于21—30、云顶温度小于-15℃或云光学厚度大于30、云顶温度大于-30℃时,出现中雨的概率最大;当云光学厚度大于30、云顶温度小于-30℃时,出现大雨或暴雨的可能性最大。云光学厚度、云顶温度、云顶高度和云粒子有效半径等云结构特征参数组合使用,对判断降水概率和降水强度具有较好的指示作用。
Based on the hourly cloud structural characteristic parameters retrieved by FY2 E satellite and hourly rain gauge data from 10:00 to 15:00 every day in Hebei, Henan and Shanxi provinces during 2013—2014, the relationship between cloud parameters, such as cloud top height, cloud top temperature, optical thickness and particle effective radius, and hourly rainfall was analyzed. The main conclusions are as follows.When the optical thickness increases, the precipitation probability increases. Moreover, the optical thickness has more indicative significance to the precipitation probability than other cloud parameters. Once the optical thickness exceeds 20, the precipitation probability would increase obviously. In addition, double cloud parameters or multiple parameters are superior to single cloud parameter in the identification of precipitation. Among the 4 cloud parameters, there is a positive correlation between optical thickness and precipitation intensity. The key influence in precipitation intensity is optical thickness, and the next is cloud top temperature or cloud top height. However the correlation between particle effective radius and the precipitation intensity is not obvious. In the period of precipitation, if cloud optical thickness is lesser than 20 or between 21—30 and cloud top temperature exceeds-15 ℃, the probability of light rainfall on the ground will be maximum; if cloud optical thickness is between 21—30 and cloud top temperature is lower than-15 ℃, or cloud optical thickness exceeds 30 and cloud top temperature is higher than-30 ℃, the probability of moderate rainfall on the ground will be maximum; if cloud optical thickness exceeds 30 and cloud top temperature is lower than-30 ℃, the probability of heavy rainfall or storm rainfall on the ground will be the maximum. Therefore, comprehensive analysis of optical thickness, cloud top temperature, cloud top height and particle effective radius are more effective to determine precipitation probability and precipitation intensity.
Based on the hourly cloud structural characteristic parameters retrieved by FY2 E satellite and hourly rain gauge data from 10:00 to 15:00 every day in Hebei, Henan and Shanxi provinces during 2013—2014, the relationship between cloud parameters, such as cloud top height, cloud top temperature, optical thickness and particle effective radius, and hourly rainfall was analyzed. The main conclusions are as follows.When the optical thickness increases, the precipitation probability increases. Moreover, the optical thickness has more indicative significance to the precipitation probability than other cloud parameters. Once the optical thickness exceeds 20, the precipitation probability would increase obviously. In addition, double cloud parameters or multiple parameters are superior to single cloud parameter in the identification of precipitation. Among the 4 cloud parameters, there is a positive correlation between optical thickness and precipitation intensity. The key influence in precipitation intensity is optical thickness, and the next is cloud top temperature or cloud top height. However the correlation between particle effective radius and the precipitation intensity is not obvious. In the period of precipitation, if cloud optical thickness is lesser than 20 or between 21—30 and cloud top temperature exceeds-15 ℃, the probability of light rainfall on the ground will be maximum; if cloud optical thickness is between 21—30 and cloud top temperature is lower than-15 ℃, or cloud optical thickness exceeds 30 and cloud top temperature is higher than-30 ℃, the probability of moderate rainfall on the ground will be maximum; if cloud optical thickness exceeds 30 and cloud top temperature is lower than-30 ℃, the probability of heavy rainfall or storm rainfall on the ground will be the maximum. Therefore, comprehensive analysis of optical thickness, cloud top temperature, cloud top height and particle effective radius are more effective to determine precipitation probability and precipitation intensity.
引文
[1]张杰,张强,田文寿,等.祁连山区云光学特征的遥感反演与云水资源的分布特征分析[J].冰川冻土,2006,28(5):722-727.
[2]刘健,张文建,朱元竞,等.中尺度强暴雨云团云特征的多种卫星资料综合分析[J].应用气象学报,2007,18(2):158-164.
[3]唐杰,曾向红,段丽洁.基于MODIS资料的一次南方夏季暴雨过程分析[J].气象与减灾研究,2012,35(4):47-53.
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[5]周毓荃,陈英英,李娟,等.用FY-2C/D卫星等综合观测资料反演云物理特性产品及检验[J].气象,2008,34(12):27-35.
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[7]陈英英,周毓荃,毛节泰,等.利用FY-2C静止卫星资料反演云粒子有效半径的试验研究[J].气象,2007,33(4):29-34.
[8]陈英英,唐仁茂,周毓荃,等.FY-2C/D卫星微物理特征参数产品在地面降水分析中的应用[J].气象,2009,35(2):15-18.
[9]陈英英.利用FY-3A卫星云图对一次暴雨过程的特征云参数分析[J].暴雨灾害,2013,32(1):24-31.
[10]宋薇,靳瑞军,孟辉,等.2009年天津地区首场降雪过程分析[J].气象科技,2012,40(6):996-1001.
[11]李静.冰雹云结构及其演变特征的卫星和雷达等综合观测分析[D].南京:南京信息工程大学,2012.
[12]蔡淼,周毓荃,朱彬.FY2C/D卫星反演云特征参数与地面雨滴谱降水观测初步分析[J].气象与环境科学,2010,33(1):1-6.
[13]蔡淼,周毓荃,朱彬.一次对流云团合并的卫星等综合观测分析[J].大气科学学报,2011,34(2):170-179.
[14]周亦凌,姚展予.一次积层混合云增雨作业天气条件分析和雷达回波效果检验[J].气象与环境科学,2017,40(1):11-20.
[15]张雨芳,刘卫国,周毓荃.一次对流云团过程结构特征的观测和模拟研究[J].气象与环境科学,2017,40(4):9-18.
[16]赵桂香,王思慜,邱贵强,等.孤立云团造成的一次强对流天气分析[J].干旱气象,2015,33(1):98-109.
[17]周晓丽,杨昌军.基于FY-2D的新疆区域强对流云识别[J].沙漠与绿洲气象,2017,11(2):82-87.
[18]马艳,顾瑜,陈尚,等.WRF中不同积云对流参数化方案对青岛降水预报影响的对比分析[J].气象与环境科学,2017,40(4):19-26.
[19]邵元亭,刘奇俊,荆志娟.祁连山夏季地形云和降水宏微观结构的数值模拟[J].干旱气象,2013,31(1):18-23.
[20]庞朝云,张丰伟,张建辉.西北干旱地区一次降水性层状云的飞机观测分析[J].干旱气象,2013,31(2):272-277.
[21]陈茂强,顾清源,汪延波,等.一次西南低涡特大暴雨的中尺度对流云团特征[J].高原山地气象研究,2008,28 (4):66-71.
[22]何光碧.MM5模式中积云参数化方案在西南地区适应性的进一步试验分析[J].高原山地气象研究,2009,29(3):12-19.
[23]秦彦硕,刘世玺,范根昌,等.华北地区春季一次层状云的微物理特征及可播性分析[J].干旱气象,2015,33(3):481-489.
[24]张琪,李跃清,杨云芸.我国云量及其与降水关系的研究进展综述[J].高原山地气象研究,2011,31(1):79-83.
(1)尚博,刘建朝.吉林省增雨潜力区的卫星云参数研究[C]//卫星遥感应用技术交流论文集.2015.
[2]刘健,张文建,朱元竞,等.中尺度强暴雨云团云特征的多种卫星资料综合分析[J].应用气象学报,2007,18(2):158-164.
[3]唐杰,曾向红,段丽洁.基于MODIS资料的一次南方夏季暴雨过程分析[J].气象与减灾研究,2012,35(4):47-53.
[4]Rosenfeld D,Gutman G.Retrieving microphysical properties near the tops of potential rain clouds by multispectral analysis of AVHRR data[J].Atmospheric Research,1994,34(1):259-283.
[5]周毓荃,陈英英,李娟,等.用FY-2C/D卫星等综合观测资料反演云物理特性产品及检验[J].气象,2008,34(12):27-35.
[6]周毓荃,蔡淼,欧建军,等.云特征参数与降水相关性的研究[J].大气科学学报,2011,34(6):641-652.
[7]陈英英,周毓荃,毛节泰,等.利用FY-2C静止卫星资料反演云粒子有效半径的试验研究[J].气象,2007,33(4):29-34.
[8]陈英英,唐仁茂,周毓荃,等.FY-2C/D卫星微物理特征参数产品在地面降水分析中的应用[J].气象,2009,35(2):15-18.
[9]陈英英.利用FY-3A卫星云图对一次暴雨过程的特征云参数分析[J].暴雨灾害,2013,32(1):24-31.
[10]宋薇,靳瑞军,孟辉,等.2009年天津地区首场降雪过程分析[J].气象科技,2012,40(6):996-1001.
[11]李静.冰雹云结构及其演变特征的卫星和雷达等综合观测分析[D].南京:南京信息工程大学,2012.
[12]蔡淼,周毓荃,朱彬.FY2C/D卫星反演云特征参数与地面雨滴谱降水观测初步分析[J].气象与环境科学,2010,33(1):1-6.
[13]蔡淼,周毓荃,朱彬.一次对流云团合并的卫星等综合观测分析[J].大气科学学报,2011,34(2):170-179.
[14]周亦凌,姚展予.一次积层混合云增雨作业天气条件分析和雷达回波效果检验[J].气象与环境科学,2017,40(1):11-20.
[15]张雨芳,刘卫国,周毓荃.一次对流云团过程结构特征的观测和模拟研究[J].气象与环境科学,2017,40(4):9-18.
[16]赵桂香,王思慜,邱贵强,等.孤立云团造成的一次强对流天气分析[J].干旱气象,2015,33(1):98-109.
[17]周晓丽,杨昌军.基于FY-2D的新疆区域强对流云识别[J].沙漠与绿洲气象,2017,11(2):82-87.
[18]马艳,顾瑜,陈尚,等.WRF中不同积云对流参数化方案对青岛降水预报影响的对比分析[J].气象与环境科学,2017,40(4):19-26.
[19]邵元亭,刘奇俊,荆志娟.祁连山夏季地形云和降水宏微观结构的数值模拟[J].干旱气象,2013,31(1):18-23.
[20]庞朝云,张丰伟,张建辉.西北干旱地区一次降水性层状云的飞机观测分析[J].干旱气象,2013,31(2):272-277.
[21]陈茂强,顾清源,汪延波,等.一次西南低涡特大暴雨的中尺度对流云团特征[J].高原山地气象研究,2008,28 (4):66-71.
[22]何光碧.MM5模式中积云参数化方案在西南地区适应性的进一步试验分析[J].高原山地气象研究,2009,29(3):12-19.
[23]秦彦硕,刘世玺,范根昌,等.华北地区春季一次层状云的微物理特征及可播性分析[J].干旱气象,2015,33(3):481-489.
[24]张琪,李跃清,杨云芸.我国云量及其与降水关系的研究进展综述[J].高原山地气象研究,2011,31(1):79-83.
(1)尚博,刘建朝.吉林省增雨潜力区的卫星云参数研究[C]//卫星遥感应用技术交流论文集.2015.
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