基于DPSIR-PCA的山西省水资源可持续性评价
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摘要
针对山西省2003—2016年水资源的可持续发展情况,构建基于驱动力—压力—状态—影响—响应的水资源可持续性评价指标体系,运用主成分分析法得出评价指标主成分、主成分得分以及综合得分,绘制出得分曲线。研究表明:山西省水资源驱动力持续提高,水资源使用的压力逐步减小,状态波动趋向稳定,影响力逐渐加大,水资源系统可持续性稳步上升,具有发展潜力。DPSIR-PCA模型选取的评价指标具有全面性和代表性,能够准确地反映水资源可持续性的变化,该模型评价指标精简、计算过程简便、结果更为精确,可为未来山西省水资源可持续性评价提供新的方法。
According to the data of sustainable development of water resources in Shanxi Province from 2003 to 2016, based on the framework of driving force-pressure-state-impact-response and the method of Principal Component Analysis(PCA) method, the evaluation system of water resources sustainable development index was established to get the principal component, principal component score and comprehensive score of the evaluation index and the score trend map was drawn. The results show that the driving force of water resources development is continuously increasing, the pressure of resource using is gradually decreasing, the state fluctuation gradually stabilizes, the influence gradually increases and the sustainable development trend of water resources system continues to rise steadily during the research period in Shanxi Province and it has potential for development. The evaluation indexes selected by DPSIR-PCA model are comprehensive and representative and can accurately reflect the change of water resources sustainable development ability. This model has the advantages of retrench index, simple process and more accurate results. It can provide a new method for the evaluation of water resources sustainability in Shanxi Province in the future.
According to the data of sustainable development of water resources in Shanxi Province from 2003 to 2016, based on the framework of driving force-pressure-state-impact-response and the method of Principal Component Analysis(PCA) method, the evaluation system of water resources sustainable development index was established to get the principal component, principal component score and comprehensive score of the evaluation index and the score trend map was drawn. The results show that the driving force of water resources development is continuously increasing, the pressure of resource using is gradually decreasing, the state fluctuation gradually stabilizes, the influence gradually increases and the sustainable development trend of water resources system continues to rise steadily during the research period in Shanxi Province and it has potential for development. The evaluation indexes selected by DPSIR-PCA model are comprehensive and representative and can accurately reflect the change of water resources sustainable development ability. This model has the advantages of retrench index, simple process and more accurate results. It can provide a new method for the evaluation of water resources sustainability in Shanxi Province in the future.
引文
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[2] 李献士,李相佑,王殿茹.基于DPSIR模型的河北省低碳经济发展评价研究[J].河北经贸大学学报,2014,35(2):106-109.
[3] 马慧敏.基于DPSIR模型的山西省水资源可持续性评价[D].太原:太原理工大学,2015:15-29.
[4] 何亮.主成分分析在SPSS中的应用[J].山西农业大学学报,2007,6(5):20-22.
[5] 陈洋波,李长兴,冯智瑶,等.基于DPSIR模型的深圳市水资源承载能力评价指标体系[J].水力发电,2004,30(2):10-14.
[6] 李玉照,刘永,颜小品.基于DPSIR模型的流域生态安全评价指标体系研究[J].北京大学学报(自然科学版),2012,48(6):971-981.
[7] 赵朋飞,刘俊,胡少敏.基于SPSS软件的主成分分析法在水质评价中的应用[J].科技创业月刊,2016,29(10):119-121.
[8] 王维维,孟江涛,张毅.基于主成分分析的湖北省水资源承载力研究[J].湖北农业科学,2010,49(11):2764-2767.
[9] 周玲玲,王琳,刘伟峰,等.基于客观组合赋权法的即墨市水资源可持续利用评价[J].水资源与水工程学报,2014,25(4):50-55.