基于GIS的绍兴市蚕桑生产气候区划
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摘要
采用支持向量机方法将66个自动气象站短序列数据延长到1972年,基于相关性分析和小网格推算法建立气温和纬度、经度、海拔等地理因子线性回归模型,并在GIS技术支持下,结合蚕桑生产区划指标对绍兴市蚕桑生产进行细网格气候区划。结果表明,气温与经度、纬度和海拔等地理因素成显著相关,绍兴市北部平原地区和诸暨市、嵊州市、新昌县等南部大部分地区适宜蚕桑生产,海拔450 m以上地区不适宜蚕桑生产。区划结果为绍兴市政府及有关部门指导蚕桑生产、发挥区域农业气候优势、减轻农业气象灾害损失,并为各地农民因地制宜地开展生产提供科学依据。
Short-sequence data of 66 automatic weather stations were extended to 1972 by support vector machine.Based on correlation analysis and small grid algorithm, linear regression model of geographic factors such as temperature, latitude, longitude and altitude was established. With the support of GIS technology, the fine grid climate regionalization of sericulture production in Shaoxing City was carried out by combining the regionalization index of sericulture production.The results showed that the temperature was significantly correlated with the longitude,latitude and altitude.The northern plain of Shaoxing City and most of the southern areas,such as Zhuji City,Shengzhou City and Xinchang County, were suitable for sericulture production, and the areas above 450 m above sea level were not suitable for sericulture production.The regionalization results could provide a scientific basis for the Shaoxing government and relevant departments to guide sericulture production,give full play to the advantages of regional agricultural climate, reduce the losses caused by agrometeorological disasters, and provide a scientific basis for farmers to carry out production in accordance with local conditions.
Short-sequence data of 66 automatic weather stations were extended to 1972 by support vector machine.Based on correlation analysis and small grid algorithm, linear regression model of geographic factors such as temperature, latitude, longitude and altitude was established. With the support of GIS technology, the fine grid climate regionalization of sericulture production in Shaoxing City was carried out by combining the regionalization index of sericulture production.The results showed that the temperature was significantly correlated with the longitude,latitude and altitude.The northern plain of Shaoxing City and most of the southern areas,such as Zhuji City,Shengzhou City and Xinchang County, were suitable for sericulture production, and the areas above 450 m above sea level were not suitable for sericulture production.The regionalization results could provide a scientific basis for the Shaoxing government and relevant departments to guide sericulture production,give full play to the advantages of regional agricultural climate, reduce the losses caused by agrometeorological disasters, and provide a scientific basis for farmers to carry out production in accordance with local conditions.
引文
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[3]徐玲玲,吕厚荃,方利.气候变化对黄淮海地区夏玉米气候适宜度的影响[J].资源科学,2014,36(4):782-787.
[4]俞芬,千怀遂,段海来.淮河流域水稻的气候适宜度及其变化趋势分析[J].地理科学,2008,28(4):537-542.
[5]王辉,王鹏云,田燕,等.昆明小麦气候适宜度研究[J].麦类作物学报,2014,34(5):680-684.
[6]潘虹,邱新法,高婷,等.基于TRMM和NCEP-FNL数据的降水估算研究[J].水土保持研究,2014,21(2):116-122.
[7]张丹,邱新法,曾燕.浙江省高分辨率气温空间分布图的计算与绘制[J].大气科学学报,2011,34(2):215-224.
[8]王丽,邱新法,王培法,等.复杂地形下长江流域太阳总辐射的分布式模拟[J].地理学报,2010,65(5):543-552.
[9]唐启义,冯明光.DPS数据处理系统教程[M].北京:气象出版社,2006:14-19.
[10]谢先全,晏路明.基于GIS的福建省农业气候资源小网格推算[J].福建师范大学学报(自然科学版),2004(3):115-118.
[11]马旭清,国世友,邹立尧.气候资源小网格推算方法[J].黑龙江气象,2001(3):26-28.
[12]娄伟平,孙科.绍兴市精细化农业气候资源分布及利用[M].北京:气象出版社,2015:175-176.