基于LMDI分解方法的河北省PM_(2.5)排放驱动因素分析
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摘要
研究了河北省1990—2015年PM_(2.5)的排放总量及各个产业部门的排放量分布,并应用LMDI模型对五大部门PM_(2.5)排放变化的驱动因素进行了较全面的分解分析,以找出每个部门中PM_(2.5)排放变化的关键驱动因素.同时,通过对原始数据的整理分析和模型计算,结果发现:①工业、生活消费、农业部门是河北省PM_(2.5)排放的三大来源.其中,工业部门是PM_(2.5)排放的最主要贡献部门,占PM_(2.5)总排放量的70%;生活消费部门的贡献位居第二,占比约24%.②对于生产端,经济规模总量扩张是PM_(2.5)排放量增加的最主要原因;能源利用效率的提高和污染治理工艺水平的改进使得各部门的排放强度减弱,明显缓解了PM_(2.5)的排放增长,部门经济结构的优化也可带来明显的减排效应.③对于消费端,人均收入的提高促进了PM_(2.5)排放的增加,倡导绿色消费模式可以有效减缓PM_(2.5)排放.根据以上结论,本研究通过找到各部门存在的问题,为河北省大气污染治理提供参考和借鉴.
With the process of industrialization in Hebei Province, air pollution, especially haze has become a hot topic in recent years. PM_(2.5) is a major component of haze, which strongly affects mortality and morbidity through respiratory and cardiopulmonary diseases. In this paper, the sectoral distribution of PM_(2.5) emissions were presented. LMDI model was further employed to analyze different driving factors of the changes of PM_(2.5) emissions in different sectors of Hebei between 1990 and 2015. The results show that industrial sector is the main contributor of PM_(2.5) emissions at production perspective, which constitutes 70% of total emissions. The contribution of the household consumption ranks the 2~(nd) with a proportion of 24%. The expansion of the economic scale of the production sector is the main driver for the increase of PM_(2.5) emissions. The improvement of energy efficiency and pollution control technology weakens the emission intensityof each sector, and thereby alleviates the PM_(2.5) emissions. Economic structure optimization also plays an important role in emission reduction. The increase of per capita income accelerates the increase of PM_(2.5) emissions from a consumption perspective. Finally, suggestions for air pollution control of Hebei province were put forward.
With the process of industrialization in Hebei Province, air pollution, especially haze has become a hot topic in recent years. PM_(2.5) is a major component of haze, which strongly affects mortality and morbidity through respiratory and cardiopulmonary diseases. In this paper, the sectoral distribution of PM_(2.5) emissions were presented. LMDI model was further employed to analyze different driving factors of the changes of PM_(2.5) emissions in different sectors of Hebei between 1990 and 2015. The results show that industrial sector is the main contributor of PM_(2.5) emissions at production perspective, which constitutes 70% of total emissions. The contribution of the household consumption ranks the 2~(nd) with a proportion of 24%. The expansion of the economic scale of the production sector is the main driver for the increase of PM_(2.5) emissions. The improvement of energy efficiency and pollution control technology weakens the emission intensityof each sector, and thereby alleviates the PM_(2.5) emissions. Economic structure optimization also plays an important role in emission reduction. The increase of per capita income accelerates the increase of PM_(2.5) emissions from a consumption perspective. Finally, suggestions for air pollution control of Hebei province were put forward.
引文
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Ang B W,Liu F L.2001.A new energy decomposition method:perfect in decomposition and consistent in aggregations[J].Energy,26(6):537-548
Ang B W,Liu N.2007.Handling zero values in the logarithmic mean divisia index decomposition approach[J].Energy Policy,35:238-246
Ang B W,Zhang F Q,Choi K H.1998.Factorizing changes in energy and environmental indicators through decomposition[J].Energy,23(6):489-495
Ang B W.2004.Decomposition analysis for policymaking in energy:while is the preferred method[J].Energy Policy,32:1131-1139
陈菡,於世为.2017.中国生活能源消费的典型污染物排放及驱动因素研究[J].中国人口·资源与环境,27(12):40-51
陈菡彬,李璞璞.2018.唐山市 PM2.5 一次源的结构分解分析[J].华北理工大学学报:社会科学版,18(2):28-35
程念亮,李云婷,孟凡,等,2014.我国PM2.5污染现状及来源解析研究[J].安徽农业科学,42(15):4721-4724
Cai S,Wang Y,Zhao B,et al.2017.The impact of the “Air Pollution Prevention and Control Action Plan” on PM2.5 concentrations in Jing-Jin-Ji region during 2012—2020[J].Science of the Total Environment,580:197-209
程郁泰,张纳军.2017.碳排放IDA模型的算法比较及应用研究[J].统计与信息论坛,32(5):10-17
段杰雄,翟卫欣,程承旗,等.2018.中国PM2.5污染空间分布的社会经济影响因素分析[J].环境科学,39(5):2498-2504
Feng K,Davis S J,Sun L,et al.2015.Drivers of the US CO2 emissions 1997–2013[J].Nature Communications,6:7714
郭朝先.2010.中国碳排放因素分解:基于LMDI 分解技术[J].中国人口·资源与环境,20 (12):4-9
Guan D,Su X,Zhang Q,et al.2014.The socioeconomic drivers of China′s primary PM2.5 emissions[J].Environmental Research Letters,9(2),DOI:10.1088/1748-9326/9/2/024010
关大博.2014.雾霾真相:京津冀地区 PM2.5 污染解析及减排策略研究[M].北京:中国环境出版社
河北省人民政府.2012.《河北省 “十二五”农业发展规划(2011—2015年)》[R].石家庄:河北省农业厅
河北省人民政府.2013.《河北省节能减排“十二五”规划》[R].石家庄:河北省人民政府办公厅
李庆,段雷,蒋靖坤,等.2016.我国民用燃煤一次颗粒物的减排潜力研究[J].中国电机工程学报,36(16):4408-4414+4527
李璇,聂滕,齐珺,等.2015.2013 年1 月北京市PM2.5区域来源解析[J].环境科学,36(4):1148-1153
鲁万波,仇婷婷,杜磊.2013.中国不同经济增长阶段碳排放影响因素研究[J].经济研究,48 (4):106-118
骆迅.2018.基于 LMDI 和高斯图模型的中国雾霾成因实证研究[D].武汉:华中师范大学
Nagashima F.2018.Critical structural paths of residential PM2.5 emissions within the Chinese provinces[J].Energy Economics,70:465-471
Nguyen T B,Wagner F,Schoepp W.2011.GAINS–an interactive tool for assessing international GHG mitigation regimes[C]//International Conference on Information and Communication on Technology.Aqaba,Jordan.124-135
彭立群,张强,贺克斌.2016.基于调查的中国秸秆露天焚烧污染物排放清单[J].环境科学研究,29(8):1109-1118
齐园,张永安.2015.北京三次产业演变与PM2.5排放的动态关系研究[J].中国人口·资源与环境,25(7):15-23
Roinioti A,Koroneos C.2017.The decomposition of CO2 emissions from energy use in Greece before and during the economic crisis and their decoupling from economic growth[J].Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews,76:448-459
谭雪,石磊,马中,等.2017.京津冀地区火电行业环境效率及影响因素分析[C]//中国环境科学学会科学与技术年会.厦门
Wakeel M,Yang S,Chen B,et al.2017.Network perspective of embodied PM2.5 - A case study[J].Journal of Cleaner Production,142:3322-3331
毋波波,薛亦峰,钟连红,等.2017.京津冀居民燃煤大气污染排放特征及控制对策[J].环境保护,45(21):27-31
王奇,夏溶矫.2012.基于对数平均迪氏分解法的中国大气污染治理投资效果的影响因素探讨[J].环境污染与防治,34(4):84-87
魏巍,王丽涛,潘雪梅,等.2013.河北城市霾污染来源的模拟研究[J].环境科学与技术,36(2):116-119
王艳,郝炜伟,程轲,等.2018.秸秆露天焚烧典型大气污染物排放因子[J].中国环境科学,38(6):2055-2061
薛文博,付飞,王金南,等.2014.中国PM2.5跨区域传输特征数值模拟研究[J].中国环境科学,34(6):1361-1368
Yang S,Chen B,Fath B.2015.Trans-boundary total suspended particulate matter (TSPM) in urban ecosystems[J].Ecological Modelling,318:59-63
阳冬波,王敏,邱兆文.2017.不同公路等级的汽车油耗和排放评估研究[J].科学技术与工程,17(12):108-114
杨洁,黄蕾,李凤英,等.2013.中国 1991—2010 年环境污染事故频数动态变化因素分解[J].中国环境科学,33(5):931-937
喻洁,达亚彬,欧阳斌.2015.基于LMDI分解方法的中国交通运输行业碳排放变化分析[J].中国公路学报,28(10):112-119
原毅军,贾媛媛.2014.技术进步、产业结构变动与污染减排—基于环境投入产值模型的研究[J].工业技术经济,33(2):41-49
Zhang F Q,Ang B W.2004.Methodological issues in cross-country/region decomposition of energy and environment indicators[J].Energy Economics,23:179-190
张陈俊,章恒全,龚雅云.2014.中国结构升级、技术进步与水资源消耗—基于改进的LMDI 方法[J].资源科学,36(10):1993-2002
张强,Klimont Z,David G S,等.2006.中国人为源颗粒物排放模型及2001年排放清单估算[J].自然科学进展,16(2):223-231
张强,王本德,曹明亮.2011.基于因素分解模型的水资源利用变动分析[J].自然资源学报,26(7):1209-1216
张淑平,韩立建,周伟奇,等.2016.冬季PM2.5的气象影响因素解析[J].生态学报,36(24):7897-7907
张永安,邬龙.2014.北京经济发展中PM2.5排放的驱动因素研究[J].生产力研究,11(1):57-60
周磊,武建军,贾瑞静.2016.京津冀PM2.5时空分布特征及其污染风险因素[J].环境科学研究,29(4):483-493
Ang B W,Liu F L.2001.A new energy decomposition method:perfect in decomposition and consistent in aggregations[J].Energy,26(6):537-548
Ang B W,Liu N.2007.Handling zero values in the logarithmic mean divisia index decomposition approach[J].Energy Policy,35:238-246
Ang B W,Zhang F Q,Choi K H.1998.Factorizing changes in energy and environmental indicators through decomposition[J].Energy,23(6):489-495
Ang B W.2004.Decomposition analysis for policymaking in energy:while is the preferred method[J].Energy Policy,32:1131-1139
陈菡,於世为.2017.中国生活能源消费的典型污染物排放及驱动因素研究[J].中国人口·资源与环境,27(12):40-51
陈菡彬,李璞璞.2018.唐山市 PM2.5 一次源的结构分解分析[J].华北理工大学学报:社会科学版,18(2):28-35
程念亮,李云婷,孟凡,等,2014.我国PM2.5污染现状及来源解析研究[J].安徽农业科学,42(15):4721-4724
Cai S,Wang Y,Zhao B,et al.2017.The impact of the “Air Pollution Prevention and Control Action Plan” on PM2.5 concentrations in Jing-Jin-Ji region during 2012—2020[J].Science of the Total Environment,580:197-209
程郁泰,张纳军.2017.碳排放IDA模型的算法比较及应用研究[J].统计与信息论坛,32(5):10-17
段杰雄,翟卫欣,程承旗,等.2018.中国PM2.5污染空间分布的社会经济影响因素分析[J].环境科学,39(5):2498-2504
Feng K,Davis S J,Sun L,et al.2015.Drivers of the US CO2 emissions 1997–2013[J].Nature Communications,6:7714
郭朝先.2010.中国碳排放因素分解:基于LMDI 分解技术[J].中国人口·资源与环境,20 (12):4-9
Guan D,Su X,Zhang Q,et al.2014.The socioeconomic drivers of China′s primary PM2.5 emissions[J].Environmental Research Letters,9(2),DOI:10.1088/1748-9326/9/2/024010
关大博.2014.雾霾真相:京津冀地区 PM2.5 污染解析及减排策略研究[M].北京:中国环境出版社
河北省人民政府.2012.《河北省 “十二五”农业发展规划(2011—2015年)》[R].石家庄:河北省农业厅
河北省人民政府.2013.《河北省节能减排“十二五”规划》[R].石家庄:河北省人民政府办公厅
李庆,段雷,蒋靖坤,等.2016.我国民用燃煤一次颗粒物的减排潜力研究[J].中国电机工程学报,36(16):4408-4414+4527
李璇,聂滕,齐珺,等.2015.2013 年1 月北京市PM2.5区域来源解析[J].环境科学,36(4):1148-1153
鲁万波,仇婷婷,杜磊.2013.中国不同经济增长阶段碳排放影响因素研究[J].经济研究,48 (4):106-118
骆迅.2018.基于 LMDI 和高斯图模型的中国雾霾成因实证研究[D].武汉:华中师范大学
Nagashima F.2018.Critical structural paths of residential PM2.5 emissions within the Chinese provinces[J].Energy Economics,70:465-471
Nguyen T B,Wagner F,Schoepp W.2011.GAINS–an interactive tool for assessing international GHG mitigation regimes[C]//International Conference on Information and Communication on Technology.Aqaba,Jordan.124-135
彭立群,张强,贺克斌.2016.基于调查的中国秸秆露天焚烧污染物排放清单[J].环境科学研究,29(8):1109-1118
齐园,张永安.2015.北京三次产业演变与PM2.5排放的动态关系研究[J].中国人口·资源与环境,25(7):15-23
Roinioti A,Koroneos C.2017.The decomposition of CO2 emissions from energy use in Greece before and during the economic crisis and their decoupling from economic growth[J].Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews,76:448-459
谭雪,石磊,马中,等.2017.京津冀地区火电行业环境效率及影响因素分析[C]//中国环境科学学会科学与技术年会.厦门
Wakeel M,Yang S,Chen B,et al.2017.Network perspective of embodied PM2.5 - A case study[J].Journal of Cleaner Production,142:3322-3331
毋波波,薛亦峰,钟连红,等.2017.京津冀居民燃煤大气污染排放特征及控制对策[J].环境保护,45(21):27-31
王奇,夏溶矫.2012.基于对数平均迪氏分解法的中国大气污染治理投资效果的影响因素探讨[J].环境污染与防治,34(4):84-87
魏巍,王丽涛,潘雪梅,等.2013.河北城市霾污染来源的模拟研究[J].环境科学与技术,36(2):116-119
王艳,郝炜伟,程轲,等.2018.秸秆露天焚烧典型大气污染物排放因子[J].中国环境科学,38(6):2055-2061
薛文博,付飞,王金南,等.2014.中国PM2.5跨区域传输特征数值模拟研究[J].中国环境科学,34(6):1361-1368
Yang S,Chen B,Fath B.2015.Trans-boundary total suspended particulate matter (TSPM) in urban ecosystems[J].Ecological Modelling,318:59-63
阳冬波,王敏,邱兆文.2017.不同公路等级的汽车油耗和排放评估研究[J].科学技术与工程,17(12):108-114
杨洁,黄蕾,李凤英,等.2013.中国 1991—2010 年环境污染事故频数动态变化因素分解[J].中国环境科学,33(5):931-937
喻洁,达亚彬,欧阳斌.2015.基于LMDI分解方法的中国交通运输行业碳排放变化分析[J].中国公路学报,28(10):112-119
原毅军,贾媛媛.2014.技术进步、产业结构变动与污染减排—基于环境投入产值模型的研究[J].工业技术经济,33(2):41-49
Zhang F Q,Ang B W.2004.Methodological issues in cross-country/region decomposition of energy and environment indicators[J].Energy Economics,23:179-190
张陈俊,章恒全,龚雅云.2014.中国结构升级、技术进步与水资源消耗—基于改进的LMDI 方法[J].资源科学,36(10):1993-2002
张强,Klimont Z,David G S,等.2006.中国人为源颗粒物排放模型及2001年排放清单估算[J].自然科学进展,16(2):223-231
张强,王本德,曹明亮.2011.基于因素分解模型的水资源利用变动分析[J].自然资源学报,26(7):1209-1216
张淑平,韩立建,周伟奇,等.2016.冬季PM2.5的气象影响因素解析[J].生态学报,36(24):7897-7907
张永安,邬龙.2014.北京经济发展中PM2.5排放的驱动因素研究[J].生产力研究,11(1):57-60
周磊,武建军,贾瑞静.2016.京津冀PM2.5时空分布特征及其污染风险因素[J].环境科学研究,29(4):483-493