基于水循环模拟的潮白河流域蓝水绿水资源变化趋势分析
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摘要
潮白河流域是北京市的重要供水来源,分析变化环境下流域内水资源的变化规律,对于维持生态系统稳定、保障经济社会发展具有重要意义。结合SWAT模型模拟了潮白河流域的水文循环过程,分析了流域内1960～2008年的蓝水绿水资源变化情况并对未来的变化趋势进行了预测。结果表明:潮白河流域的蓝水流与绿水流在研究期内都呈显著减少趋势,绿水储量呈增加趋势但不显著,它们的变化倾向率分别为-19.33mm·10a~(-1)、-6.92 mm·10a~(-1)与0.70 mm·10a~(-1)。未来趋势预测的结果表明这一变化趋势还将持续。
Chaobai River basin is one of the crucial water supply sources for Beijing, and it is significant to study on the variation trend of water resources in the basin to maintain the stable ecology system and economic development. This paper simulated the hydrology cycle process in the basin combined with the SWAT model, and analyzed the variation of blue and green water resources in the basin during 1960-2008, and then made prediction for the future. The results indicate that the blue and green water flow were decreased significantly while the green water storage were increased slightly during the research period. The tendency rates of these hydrologic variables are-19.33 mm·10 a~(-1),-6.92 mm·10 a~(-1) and 0.70 mm·10 a~(-1) respectively. The prediction results propose that the change trend of blue and green water resources would be continued.
Chaobai River basin is one of the crucial water supply sources for Beijing, and it is significant to study on the variation trend of water resources in the basin to maintain the stable ecology system and economic development. This paper simulated the hydrology cycle process in the basin combined with the SWAT model, and analyzed the variation of blue and green water resources in the basin during 1960-2008, and then made prediction for the future. The results indicate that the blue and green water flow were decreased significantly while the green water storage were increased slightly during the research period. The tendency rates of these hydrologic variables are-19.33 mm·10 a~(-1),-6.92 mm·10 a~(-1) and 0.70 mm·10 a~(-1) respectively. The prediction results propose that the change trend of blue and green water resources would be continued.
引文
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[16]刘佳凯,张振明,鄢郭馨,等.潮白河流域径流对降雨的多尺度响应[J].中国水土保持科学,2016,14(4):50-59.(LIU Jiakai,ZHANGZhenming,YAN Guoxin,et al. Multi-scale analysis onprecipitation-runoff relationship in Chaobaihe basin[J]. Science ofSoil and Water Conservation,2016,14(4):50-59.(in Chinese))
[17] Schuol J, Abbaspour K C, Yang H, et al. Modeling blue andgreen water availability in Africa[J]. Water Resources Research,2008, 44(7):212-221.
[18] Moriasi D N,Arnold J G,Van Liew M W,et al. Model evaluationguidelines for systematic quantification of accuracy in watershedsimulations[J]. Transactions of the Asabe,2007,50(3):885-900.
[2] ZANG C,LIU J. Trend analysis for the flows of green and bluewater in the Heihe River basin,northwestern China[J]. Journal ofHydrology,2013,502(8):27-36.
[3] Alley R B,Marotzke J,Nordhaus W D,et al. Abrupt climatechange[J]. Science,2003,299(5615):2005.
[4] Karpouzos D K, Kavalieratou S, Babajimopoulos C. Trend analysisof precipitation data in Pieria region(Greece)[J]. Journal of SouthAmerican Earth Sciences, 2010, 29(2):464-482.
[5] Falkenmark M. 1995 Land-water linkages:A synopsis:land andwater integration and river basin management[R]. Land andWater Bulletin No. 1,FAO,Rome,pp. 15-17.
[6] Falkenmark M.&Rockstro o m J. 2006 The new blue and greenwater paradigm:breaking new ground for water resources planningand management[J]. Journal of Water Resources Planning andManagement-ASCE,132(3),129-132.
[7] Liu J G,Yang H,Hoff H,et al. Spatially explicit assessment ofglobal consumptive water uses in cropland:green and blue water[J]. Journal of Hydrology,2010,384(3):187-197.
[8]程国栋,赵文智.绿水及其研究进展[J].地球科学进展,2006,21(3):221-227.(CHENG Guodong,ZHAO Wenzhi. Geen water andits research progresses[J]. Advances in Earth Science,2006,21(3):221-227.(in Chinese))
[9] Rockstrom J,Falkenmark M,Karlberg L,et al. Future water availabilityfor global food production:the potential of green water forincreasing resilience to global change[J]. Water ResourcesResearch,2009,45(7):142-143.
[10] Rost S,Gerten D,Bondeau A,et al. Agricultural green and bluewater consumption and its influence on the global water system[J]. Water Resources Research,2008,44(9):137-148.
[11] Schuol J,Abbaspour K C,Yang H,et al. Modeling blue and greenwater availability in Africa[J]. Water Resources Research,2008,44(7):212-221.
[12] Faramarzi M, Abbaspour K C, Schulin R, et al. Modelling blueand green water resources availability in Iran[J]. HydrologicalProcesses, 2009, 23(3):486-501.
[13] ZHAO A,ZHU X,LIU X,et al. Impacts of land use change andclimate variability on green and blue water resources in theWeihe River Basin of northwest China[J]. Catena,2016,137:318-327.
[14]赵阳,余新晓,郑江坤,等.气候和土地利用变化对潮白河流域径流变化的定量影响[J].农业工程学报,2012,28(22):252-260.(ZHAO Yang,YU Xinxiao,ZHENG Jiangkun,et al. Quantitativeeffects of climate variations and land-use changes annualstreamflow in Chaobai river basin[J]. Transactions of the ChineseSociety of Agricultural Engineering, 2012, 28(22):252-260.(inChinese))
[15]周小珍,潘兴瑶,朱永华,等.潮白河流域1980—2013年平均水平衡特征研究[J].自然资源学报,2016(4):649-657.(ZHOUXiaozhen,PAN Xingyao,ZHU Yonghua,et al. Research of themean annual water balance during 1980-2013 in Chaobai Riverbasin[J]. Journal of Natural Resources,2016(4):649-657.(inChinese))
[16]刘佳凯,张振明,鄢郭馨,等.潮白河流域径流对降雨的多尺度响应[J].中国水土保持科学,2016,14(4):50-59.(LIU Jiakai,ZHANGZhenming,YAN Guoxin,et al. Multi-scale analysis onprecipitation-runoff relationship in Chaobaihe basin[J]. Science ofSoil and Water Conservation,2016,14(4):50-59.(in Chinese))
[17] Schuol J, Abbaspour K C, Yang H, et al. Modeling blue andgreen water availability in Africa[J]. Water Resources Research,2008, 44(7):212-221.
[18] Moriasi D N,Arnold J G,Van Liew M W,et al. Model evaluationguidelines for systematic quantification of accuracy in watershedsimulations[J]. Transactions of the Asabe,2007,50(3):885-900.