基于距离协调发展度模型的乌伦古湖健康评价
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摘要
人类聚居地湖泊生态系统健康面临严重威胁。科学评估湖泊系统健康成为湖泊科学与生态学交叉学科研究热点。以乌伦古湖为评价区域,基于"压力-状态-响应"模型架构,从生态完整性角度和社会服务功能角度,构建3级体系21项指标的乌伦古湖健康评价指标体系。采用层次分析法与熵权法的主客观赋权法确定权重,建立距离协调发展度湖泊健康评价模型,提出基于"协调性最佳状态"的健康评价分级标准。对2017年乌伦古湖健康状况评价,结果表明:乌伦古湖处于"不健康"和"弱度不协调"状态,生态完整性与社会服务功能2个子系统间协调性不高,社会服务功能发展超过生态承载能力。其中,吉力湖健康状况略优于布伦托海。对乌伦古湖进行生态修复,协调生态完整性与社会服务功能是今后湖泊管理面临的重大决策方向。
The lake ecosystem health of human settlements is facing a serious threat. Scientific evaluation of lake system health has become a research hotspot in interdisciplinary fields of lake science and ecology. From the perspective of ecological integrity and social service function, this article took Ulungur Lake as assessment area and constructed the health evaluation indicator system in Ulungur Lake with 21 indicators of 3-level system that is based on the pressure-state-response(PSR)model framework. A subjective and objective comprehensive approach of analytic hierarchy process and entropy weight method was used to determine weights, and the model of lake health evaluation with distance coordinated development degree was established, and the classification standard of health evaluation based on the "optimal state of coordination" was proposed. The evaluation of the health condition of Ulungur Lake in 2017 shows that the Lake is in the state of "unhealthy" and "weak degree of incoordination", the coordination between the two subsystems of ecological integrity and social service function is not high,and the development of social service function exceeds the ecological carrying capacity. Among them, the health condition of Jili Lake is slightly better than that of Buluntuo Lake. Ecological restoration and coordination of ecological integrity and social service function are important decision-making directions for lake management in the future.
The lake ecosystem health of human settlements is facing a serious threat. Scientific evaluation of lake system health has become a research hotspot in interdisciplinary fields of lake science and ecology. From the perspective of ecological integrity and social service function, this article took Ulungur Lake as assessment area and constructed the health evaluation indicator system in Ulungur Lake with 21 indicators of 3-level system that is based on the pressure-state-response(PSR)model framework. A subjective and objective comprehensive approach of analytic hierarchy process and entropy weight method was used to determine weights, and the model of lake health evaluation with distance coordinated development degree was established, and the classification standard of health evaluation based on the "optimal state of coordination" was proposed. The evaluation of the health condition of Ulungur Lake in 2017 shows that the Lake is in the state of "unhealthy" and "weak degree of incoordination", the coordination between the two subsystems of ecological integrity and social service function is not high,and the development of social service function exceeds the ecological carrying capacity. Among them, the health condition of Jili Lake is slightly better than that of Buluntuo Lake. Ecological restoration and coordination of ecological integrity and social service function are important decision-making directions for lake management in the future.
引文
[1]王莺,闫正龙,高凡. 1957-2015年红碱淖湖水域面积时空变化监测及驱动力分析[J].农业工程学报, 2018,34(2):265-271.Wang Ying, Yan Zhenglong, Gao Fan. Monitoring spatiotemporal changes of water area in Hongjiaonao Lake from1957 to 2015 and its driving forces analysis[J]. Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering, 2018,34(2):265-271.
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[4]樊贤璐,徐国宾.基于生态-社会服务功能协调发展度的湖泊健康评价方法[J].湖泊科学, 2018,30(5):1225-1234.Fan Xianlu, Xu Guobin. Lake health assessment method based on the coordinated development degree of ecology and social service function[J]. Journal of Lake Science,2018,30(5):1225-1234.
[5] Mach M E, Martone R G, Chan K M A. Human impacts and ecosystem services:insufficient research for trade-off evaluation[J]. Ecosystem Services, 2015,16:112-120.
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[7]帅红,李景保.典型年洞庭湖系统健康综合评价[J].地理科学, 2014,34(2):170-177.Shuai Hong, Li Jingbao. Assessment and analysis of comprehensive health in typical years of Dongting Lake system[J].Scientia Geographica Sinica, 2014,34(2):170-177.
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[9]赵臻彦,徐福留,詹巍,等.湖泊生态系统健康定量评价方法[J].生态学报, 2005,25(6):1466-1474.Zhao Zhenyan, Xu Fuliu, Zhan Wei, et al. A quantitative method for assessing lake ecosystem health[J]. Acta Ecologica Sinica, 2005,25(6):1466-1474.
[10] Leopold J C. Getting a handle on ecosystem health[J]. Science, 1997,276:876-887.
[11]孙小玲,蔡庆华,李凤清,等.河流健康综合评价指数法的改进及其在昌江的应用[J].生态与农村环境学报, 2011,27(6):98-103.Sun Xiaoling, Cai Qinghua, Li Fengqing, et al. Modification of river health comprehensive assessment index and its application to the Changjiang River[J]. Journal of Ecology and Rural Environment, 2011,27(6):98-103.
[12]徐伟,董增川,付晓花,等.基于BP人工神经网络的河流生态健康预警[J].河海大学学报:自然科学版, 2015,43(1):54-59.Xu Wei, Dong Zengchuan, Fu Xiaohua, et al. Early warning of river ecosystem health based on BP artificial neural networks[J]. Journal of Hohai University:Natural Science Edition, 2015,43(1):54-59.
[13]薛联青,朱祎真,王思琪,等.基于投影寻踪的湖泊生态健康评价[J].水资源保护, 2016,32(2):67-72.Xue Lianqing, Zhu Yizhen, Wang Siqi, et al. Lake ecosystem health assessment based on projection pursuit[J]. Water Resources Protection, 2016,32(2):67-72.
[14]吴易雯,李莹杰,张列宇,等.基于主客观赋权模糊综合评价法的湖泊水生态系统健康评价[J].湖泊科学, 2017,29(5):1091-1102.Wu Yiwen, Li Yingjie, Zhang Lieyu, et al. Assessment of lakes ecosystem health based on objective and subjective weighting combined with fuzzy comprehensive evaluation[J]. Journal of Lake Science, 2017,29(5):1091-1102.
[15]何兵,高凡,唐小雨,等.基于协调发展度模型的叶尔羌河健康评价[J].干旱区研究, 2018,35(6):1262-1270.He Bing, Gao Fan, Tang Xiaoyu, et al. Health assessment of the Yarkant River based on coordinated development degree model[J]. Arid Zone Research, 2018,35(6):1262-1270.
[16]汤铃,李建平,余安乐,等.基于距离协调度模型的系统协调发展定量评价方法[J].系统工程理论与实践, 2010,30(4):594-602.Tang Ling, Li Jianping, Yu Anle, et al. Quantitative evaluation methodology for system coordination development based on distance coordination degree model[J]. Systems Engineering-Theory&Practice, 2010,30(4):594-602.
[17]吴敬禄,马龙,曾海鳌.乌伦古湖水量与水质变化特征及其环境效应[J].自然资源学报, 2013,28(5):844-853.Wu Jinglu, Ma Long, Zeng Hai'ao. Water quantity and quality change of Ulungur Lake and its environmental effects[J].Journal of Natural Resources, 2013,28(5):844-853.
[18]任建丽,金海龙,叶茂,等.基于PSR模型对艾比湖流域生态系统健康评价研究[J].干旱区资源与环境, 2012,26(2):37-41.Ren Jianli, Jin Hailong, Ye Mao, et al. Evaluation on ecosystem health of Ebinur Lake drainage based on PSR model[J].Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment, 2012,26(2):37-41.
[19]高凡,孙晓懿,蓝利,等.基于可达最佳状态标准的叶尔羌河健康评价[J].人民黄河, 2017,39(11):103-108,156.Gao Fan, Sun Xiaoyi, Lan Li, et al. River health assessment based on achievable maximum state standard in Yarkant River[J]. Yellow River, 2017,39(11):103-108,156.
[20]孙红卫,吕春燕,祁爱琴,等.综合评价中数据标准化的原理研究[J].中国卫生统计, 2015,32(2):342-344,349.Sun Hongwei, Lyu Chunyan, Qi Aiqin, et al. Study on the principle of data standardization in comprehensive evaluation[J]. Chinese Journal of Health Statistics, 2015, 32(2):342-344,349.
[21] Saaty T L. The Analytic Hierarchy Process[M]. New York:McGraw-Hill Inc, 1980:12-15.
[22]孙超,陈文,李计生,等.基于组合赋权的改进集对模型在流域生态健康评价中的应用[J].水文, 2018,38(2):53-58.Sun Chao, Chen Wen, Li Jisheng, et al. Application of based-weighting improved set pair model in assessment of river basin ecological environment health[J]. Journal of China Hydrology, 2018,38(2):53-58.
[23]翟晶,徐国宾,郭书英,等.基于协调发展度的河流健康评价方法研究[J].水利学报, 2016,47(11):1465-1471.Zhai Jing, Xu Guobin, Guo Shuying, et al. Research on river health assessment method based on coordinated development degree[J]. Journal of Hydraulic Engineering, 2016,47(11):1465-1471.
[24]陈威.基于欧式距离协调度模型的黑龙江省区域人口与经济协调发展研究[D].哈尔滨：东北林业大学, 2014.Chen Wei. Research on Population and Economic Coordinated Development of Heilongjiang Province Based on Coordination Model of Euclidean Distance[D]. Harbin:Northeast Forestry University, 2014.
[25]孟古别克·俄布拉依汗,贾尔恒·阿哈提,程艳,等.乌伦古河断流的生态影响及成因分析[J].新疆环境保护, 2016,38(2):5-11.Mengubieke Ebulayihan, Jiaerheng Ahati, Cheng Yan, et al.Influence of the Ulungur River blanking on the ecology and cause analysis[J]. Environmental Protection of Xinjiang,2016,38(2):5-11.
[26]吉芬芬,沈建忠,马徐发,等.乌伦古湖水质变化及成因分析[J].水生态学杂志, 2018,39(3):61-66.Ji Fenfen, Shen Jianzhong, Ma Xufa, et al. Changes in water quality and analysis of underlying causes in Ulungur Lake[J]. Journal of Hydroecology, 2018,39(3):61-66.
[27]梁犁丽,王芳,汪党献,等.乌伦古湖最低生态水位及生态缺水量[J].水科学进展, 2011,22(4):470-478.Liang Lili, Wang Fang, Wang Dangxian, et al. Research on the lowest ecological water level and ecological water quantity of Ulungur Lake[J]. Advances in Water Science, 2011,22(4):470-478.
[28]黄智华,周怀东,薛滨,等.人类活动对乌伦古湖环境演化的影响[J].人民黄河, 2011,33(5):60-62.Huang Zhihua, Zhou Huaidong, Xue Bin, et al. The influence of human activities on the environmental evolution of Ulungur Lake[J]. Yellow River, 2011,33(5):60-62.
[2]马荣华,杨桂山,段洪涛,等.中国湖泊的数量、面积与空间分布[J].中国科学：地球科学, 2011,41(3):394-401.Ma Ronghua, Yang Guishan, Duan Hongtao, et al. China's lakes at present:number, area and spatial distribution[J]. Sci China:Earth Science, 2011,41(3):394-401.
[3] Xu F L, Tao S, Dawson R W, et al. Lake ecosystem health assessment:indicators and methods[J]. Water Research, 2001,35(13):3157-3167.
[4]樊贤璐,徐国宾.基于生态-社会服务功能协调发展度的湖泊健康评价方法[J].湖泊科学, 2018,30(5):1225-1234.Fan Xianlu, Xu Guobin. Lake health assessment method based on the coordinated development degree of ecology and social service function[J]. Journal of Lake Science,2018,30(5):1225-1234.
[5] Mach M E, Martone R G, Chan K M A. Human impacts and ecosystem services:insufficient research for trade-off evaluation[J]. Ecosystem Services, 2015,16:112-120.
[6] McMichael A J, Bolin B, Costanza R, et al. Globalization and the sustainability of human health:an ecological perspective[J]. Bio Sciences, 1995, 49(3):205-210.
[7]帅红,李景保.典型年洞庭湖系统健康综合评价[J].地理科学, 2014,34(2):170-177.Shuai Hong, Li Jingbao. Assessment and analysis of comprehensive health in typical years of Dongting Lake system[J].Scientia Geographica Sinica, 2014,34(2):170-177.
[8]刘永,郭怀成,戴永立,等.湖泊生态系统健康评价方法研究[J].环境科学学报, 2004,24(4):723-729.Liu Yong, Guo Huaicheng, Dai Yongli, et al. An assessing approach for lake ecosystem health[J]. Acta Scientiae Circumstantiae, 2004,24(4):723-729.
[9]赵臻彦,徐福留,詹巍,等.湖泊生态系统健康定量评价方法[J].生态学报, 2005,25(6):1466-1474.Zhao Zhenyan, Xu Fuliu, Zhan Wei, et al. A quantitative method for assessing lake ecosystem health[J]. Acta Ecologica Sinica, 2005,25(6):1466-1474.
[10] Leopold J C. Getting a handle on ecosystem health[J]. Science, 1997,276:876-887.
[11]孙小玲,蔡庆华,李凤清,等.河流健康综合评价指数法的改进及其在昌江的应用[J].生态与农村环境学报, 2011,27(6):98-103.Sun Xiaoling, Cai Qinghua, Li Fengqing, et al. Modification of river health comprehensive assessment index and its application to the Changjiang River[J]. Journal of Ecology and Rural Environment, 2011,27(6):98-103.
[12]徐伟,董增川,付晓花,等.基于BP人工神经网络的河流生态健康预警[J].河海大学学报:自然科学版, 2015,43(1):54-59.Xu Wei, Dong Zengchuan, Fu Xiaohua, et al. Early warning of river ecosystem health based on BP artificial neural networks[J]. Journal of Hohai University:Natural Science Edition, 2015,43(1):54-59.
[13]薛联青,朱祎真,王思琪,等.基于投影寻踪的湖泊生态健康评价[J].水资源保护, 2016,32(2):67-72.Xue Lianqing, Zhu Yizhen, Wang Siqi, et al. Lake ecosystem health assessment based on projection pursuit[J]. Water Resources Protection, 2016,32(2):67-72.
[14]吴易雯,李莹杰,张列宇,等.基于主客观赋权模糊综合评价法的湖泊水生态系统健康评价[J].湖泊科学, 2017,29(5):1091-1102.Wu Yiwen, Li Yingjie, Zhang Lieyu, et al. Assessment of lakes ecosystem health based on objective and subjective weighting combined with fuzzy comprehensive evaluation[J]. Journal of Lake Science, 2017,29(5):1091-1102.
[15]何兵,高凡,唐小雨,等.基于协调发展度模型的叶尔羌河健康评价[J].干旱区研究, 2018,35(6):1262-1270.He Bing, Gao Fan, Tang Xiaoyu, et al. Health assessment of the Yarkant River based on coordinated development degree model[J]. Arid Zone Research, 2018,35(6):1262-1270.
[16]汤铃,李建平,余安乐,等.基于距离协调度模型的系统协调发展定量评价方法[J].系统工程理论与实践, 2010,30(4):594-602.Tang Ling, Li Jianping, Yu Anle, et al. Quantitative evaluation methodology for system coordination development based on distance coordination degree model[J]. Systems Engineering-Theory&Practice, 2010,30(4):594-602.
[17]吴敬禄,马龙,曾海鳌.乌伦古湖水量与水质变化特征及其环境效应[J].自然资源学报, 2013,28(5):844-853.Wu Jinglu, Ma Long, Zeng Hai'ao. Water quantity and quality change of Ulungur Lake and its environmental effects[J].Journal of Natural Resources, 2013,28(5):844-853.
[18]任建丽,金海龙,叶茂,等.基于PSR模型对艾比湖流域生态系统健康评价研究[J].干旱区资源与环境, 2012,26(2):37-41.Ren Jianli, Jin Hailong, Ye Mao, et al. Evaluation on ecosystem health of Ebinur Lake drainage based on PSR model[J].Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment, 2012,26(2):37-41.
[19]高凡,孙晓懿,蓝利,等.基于可达最佳状态标准的叶尔羌河健康评价[J].人民黄河, 2017,39(11):103-108,156.Gao Fan, Sun Xiaoyi, Lan Li, et al. River health assessment based on achievable maximum state standard in Yarkant River[J]. Yellow River, 2017,39(11):103-108,156.
[20]孙红卫,吕春燕,祁爱琴,等.综合评价中数据标准化的原理研究[J].中国卫生统计, 2015,32(2):342-344,349.Sun Hongwei, Lyu Chunyan, Qi Aiqin, et al. Study on the principle of data standardization in comprehensive evaluation[J]. Chinese Journal of Health Statistics, 2015, 32(2):342-344,349.
[21] Saaty T L. The Analytic Hierarchy Process[M]. New York:McGraw-Hill Inc, 1980:12-15.
[22]孙超,陈文,李计生,等.基于组合赋权的改进集对模型在流域生态健康评价中的应用[J].水文, 2018,38(2):53-58.Sun Chao, Chen Wen, Li Jisheng, et al. Application of based-weighting improved set pair model in assessment of river basin ecological environment health[J]. Journal of China Hydrology, 2018,38(2):53-58.
[23]翟晶,徐国宾,郭书英,等.基于协调发展度的河流健康评价方法研究[J].水利学报, 2016,47(11):1465-1471.Zhai Jing, Xu Guobin, Guo Shuying, et al. Research on river health assessment method based on coordinated development degree[J]. Journal of Hydraulic Engineering, 2016,47(11):1465-1471.
[24]陈威.基于欧式距离协调度模型的黑龙江省区域人口与经济协调发展研究[D].哈尔滨：东北林业大学, 2014.Chen Wei. Research on Population and Economic Coordinated Development of Heilongjiang Province Based on Coordination Model of Euclidean Distance[D]. Harbin:Northeast Forestry University, 2014.
[25]孟古别克·俄布拉依汗,贾尔恒·阿哈提,程艳,等.乌伦古河断流的生态影响及成因分析[J].新疆环境保护, 2016,38(2):5-11.Mengubieke Ebulayihan, Jiaerheng Ahati, Cheng Yan, et al.Influence of the Ulungur River blanking on the ecology and cause analysis[J]. Environmental Protection of Xinjiang,2016,38(2):5-11.
[26]吉芬芬,沈建忠,马徐发,等.乌伦古湖水质变化及成因分析[J].水生态学杂志, 2018,39(3):61-66.Ji Fenfen, Shen Jianzhong, Ma Xufa, et al. Changes in water quality and analysis of underlying causes in Ulungur Lake[J]. Journal of Hydroecology, 2018,39(3):61-66.
[27]梁犁丽,王芳,汪党献,等.乌伦古湖最低生态水位及生态缺水量[J].水科学进展, 2011,22(4):470-478.Liang Lili, Wang Fang, Wang Dangxian, et al. Research on the lowest ecological water level and ecological water quantity of Ulungur Lake[J]. Advances in Water Science, 2011,22(4):470-478.
[28]黄智华,周怀东,薛滨,等.人类活动对乌伦古湖环境演化的影响[J].人民黄河, 2011,33(5):60-62.Huang Zhihua, Zhou Huaidong, Xue Bin, et al. The influence of human activities on the environmental evolution of Ulungur Lake[J]. Yellow River, 2011,33(5):60-62.