基于结构突变的农牧交错带草地生态足迹演变阶段分析
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摘要
为准确判定草原生态与经济发展之间的互动关系,科学划分草地生态足迹演变的时间节点,本文以内蒙古典型农牧交错带四子王旗为研究对象,采用1987-2016年草地生态足迹和人均GDP的时间序列,基于BP结构突变协整检验对该区域的草地消耗与经济增长展开分析。结果表明:不考虑结构突变的协整检验,对草原生态保护政策下的四子王旗并不适合;而结构突变的协整检验能良好地反映长时期农牧交错带资源与经济的结构性变化,体现资源消耗与经济增长的动态均衡,并呈现出资源消耗到经济增长的单向因果关系。研究区草地生态足迹的演变可划分为3个阶段:低度协同阶段(1987-2002年)、政策驱动阶段(2002-2009年)和快速发展阶段(2009-2016年)。不同阶段,草地生态足迹的短期波动(-2.289、-1.082和0.495)趋于平缓,长期均衡系数(0.292%、0.728%和1.355%)逐步提升,表明生态保护政策有助于草地资源利用效率的提升。该结果不仅有益于协调区域经济发展与草地资源利用,也为农牧交错带科学编制草地生态保护规划提供一定的参考。
Siziwang Banner is a typical agri-pastoral ecotone of Inner Mongolia, where animal husbandry is the foundation supporting economic development. The grassland resources have a profound influence on the livestock industry. The time scale studied in this paper spans nearly 30 years, and during this period, the grassland resources of Siziwang Banner were degraded by human economic activities on a large scale. With the increasing awareness of environmental protection, the national and local governments have adopted a series of ecological measures, through projects such as returning farmland to grasslands, and the comprehensive management of grasslands to help improve their ecology. The transformation from grassland degradation to improving ecological, to a certain extent, reflects that regional economic construction is no longer purely at the expense of the environment but is gradually adopting a sustainable development approach. Coordination between economic construction and ecological protection should be emphasized. In order to study grassland ecology and economic development, a feasible ecological evaluation model is needed. The ecological footprint model has been widely used in China, but grassland ecological footprints are rarely found in agro-pastoral interlaced areas. The ecological footprint of the grassland and the time series of GDP per capita from 1987 to 2016 were used to analyze the grassland consumption and economic growth in Siziwang Banner, by using the Bai-Perron structural mutation co-integration test. The results of this co-integration test, which did not consider structural mutation, showed that it was not suitable for Siziwang Banner under a variety of grassland ecological protection policies. Besides, a co-integration test of structural mutation could reflect the economy of the agricultural and pastoral ecotone over a long period. The structural changes reflected the dynamic equilibrium between grassland consumption and economic growth and presented a one-way causality from grassland consumption to economic growth. The evolution of the grassland ecological footprint could be divided into three stages: a low-degree coordination stage(1987-2002), a policy-driven stage(2002-2009), and a rapid development stage(2009-2016). In the different stages, the absolute value of short-term fluctuations of the grasslands ecological footprint tended to be flat, but the long-term equilibrium coefficients gradually increased. The results showed that the ecological protection policy was helpful for improving the utilization efficiency of grassland resources. We found that the dependence of economic growth on grassland consumption gradually decreased, and the mode of economic growth at the expense of resources changed under the policies of ecological protection over the past 20 years. Sustainable methods for both economic development and ecological protection were advancing. Our results were not only beneficial to coordinate the development of regional economies and the utilization of grassland resources, but could also be used as reference for the future scientific planning of grassland ecological protection in the ecotones of agriculture and animal husbandry.
Siziwang Banner is a typical agri-pastoral ecotone of Inner Mongolia, where animal husbandry is the foundation supporting economic development. The grassland resources have a profound influence on the livestock industry. The time scale studied in this paper spans nearly 30 years, and during this period, the grassland resources of Siziwang Banner were degraded by human economic activities on a large scale. With the increasing awareness of environmental protection, the national and local governments have adopted a series of ecological measures, through projects such as returning farmland to grasslands, and the comprehensive management of grasslands to help improve their ecology. The transformation from grassland degradation to improving ecological, to a certain extent, reflects that regional economic construction is no longer purely at the expense of the environment but is gradually adopting a sustainable development approach. Coordination between economic construction and ecological protection should be emphasized. In order to study grassland ecology and economic development, a feasible ecological evaluation model is needed. The ecological footprint model has been widely used in China, but grassland ecological footprints are rarely found in agro-pastoral interlaced areas. The ecological footprint of the grassland and the time series of GDP per capita from 1987 to 2016 were used to analyze the grassland consumption and economic growth in Siziwang Banner, by using the Bai-Perron structural mutation co-integration test. The results of this co-integration test, which did not consider structural mutation, showed that it was not suitable for Siziwang Banner under a variety of grassland ecological protection policies. Besides, a co-integration test of structural mutation could reflect the economy of the agricultural and pastoral ecotone over a long period. The structural changes reflected the dynamic equilibrium between grassland consumption and economic growth and presented a one-way causality from grassland consumption to economic growth. The evolution of the grassland ecological footprint could be divided into three stages: a low-degree coordination stage(1987-2002), a policy-driven stage(2002-2009), and a rapid development stage(2009-2016). In the different stages, the absolute value of short-term fluctuations of the grasslands ecological footprint tended to be flat, but the long-term equilibrium coefficients gradually increased. The results showed that the ecological protection policy was helpful for improving the utilization efficiency of grassland resources. We found that the dependence of economic growth on grassland consumption gradually decreased, and the mode of economic growth at the expense of resources changed under the policies of ecological protection over the past 20 years. Sustainable methods for both economic development and ecological protection were advancing. Our results were not only beneficial to coordinate the development of regional economies and the utilization of grassland resources, but could also be used as reference for the future scientific planning of grassland ecological protection in the ecotones of agriculture and animal husbandry.
引文
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[9]姬超,颜玮.广义系统下中国草地资源的退化成因与可持续利用对策[J].农业现代化研究,2013,34(5):538-542JI C,YAN W.Analysis of China grassland degradation problems and sustainable use under perspective of generalized system[J].Research of Agricultural Modernization,2013,34(5):538-542
[10]陈秋红.经济发展与草地资源退化之间的一般规律[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2010,20(11):122-127CHEN Q H.The general law of the relationship between natural grassland degradation and economic development in China[J].China Population,Resources and Environment,2010,20(11):122-127
[11]沈政,李军,张也.探析经济增长与保持草原生态--基于EKC理论的实证分析[J].中国农业资源与区划,2012,33(3):51-57SHEN Z,LI J,ZHANG Y.Does economic growth benefit grassland ecosystems[J].Chinese Journal of Agricultural Resources and Regional Planning,2012,33(3):51-57
[12]姚兴成,曲恬甜,常文静,等.基于MODIS数据和植被特征估算草地生物量[J].中国生态农业学报,2017,25(4):530-541YAO X C,QU T T,CHANG W J,et al.Estimation of grassland biomass using MODIS data and plant community characteristics[J].Chinese Journal of Eco-agriculture,2017,25(4):530-541
[13]吴郁玲,冯忠垒,周勇,等.耕地集约利用影响因素的协整分析[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2011,21(11):67-72WU Y L,FENG Z L,ZHOU Y,et al.Co-integration analysis on driving factors of intensive cultivated land use based on perspective of farmers:A case study of Hubei Province[J].China Population,Resources and Environment,2011,21(11):67-72
[14]WACKERNAGEL M,REES W.Our Ecological Footprint:Reducing Human Impact on the Earth[M].Gabriola Island:New Society Publishers,1996
[15]周涛,王云鹏,龚健周,等.生态足迹的模型修正与方法改进[J].生态学报,2015,35(14):4592-4603ZHOU T,WANG Y P,GONG J Z,et al.Ecological footprint model modification and method improvement[J].Acta Ecologica Sinica,2015,35(14):4592-4603
[16]刘玉杰,李向林,何峰.基于饲养标准的家畜单位折算方法[J].草地学报,2009,17(4):500-504LIU Y J,LI X L,HE F.Animal unit conversion method based on feeding standard[J].Acta Agrestia Sinica,2009,17(4):500-504
[17]WACKERNAGEL M,MONFREDA C,ERB K H,et al.Ecological footprint time series of Austria,the Philippines,and South Korea for 1961-1999:Comparing the conventional approach to an‘actual land area’approach[J].Land Use Policy,2004,21(3):261-269
[18]BAI J,PERRON P.Estimating and testing linear models with multiple structural changes[J].Econometrica,1998,66(1):47-78
[19]BAI J.Likelihood ratio tests for multiple structural changes[J].Journal of Econometrics,1999,91(2):299-323
[20]BAI J,PERRON P.Critical values for multiple structural change tests[J].Econometrics journal,2003,6(1):72-78
[21]王劲屹.农村金融发展、资本存量提升与农村经济增长[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2018,35(2):64-81WANG J Y.Rural financial development,capital stock increase,and rural economy growth[J].The Journal of Quantitative&Technical Economics,2018,35(2):64-81
[2]赵英伟,刘黎明,白晓飞.西部大开发草地资源可持续利用评价与发展对策[J].中国生态农业学报,2004,12(2):15-18ZHAO Y W,LIU L M,BAI X F.Evaluation and countermeasures of the sustainable utilization of grassland resources in development of western China[J].Chinese Journal of Eco-agriculture,2004,12(2):15-18
[3]高艺宁,赵萌莉,熊梅,等.农牧交错带草地景观格局特征及其影响因素分析[J].中国农业大学学报,2018,23(10):103-111GAO Y N,ZHAO M L,XIONG M,et al.Analysis of characteristics and influencing factors of grassland landscape pattern in the farming-pasturing interlocked areas[J].Journal of China Agricultural University,2018,23(10):103-111
[4]侯向阳.中国草原保护建设技术进展及推广应用效果[J].中国草地学报,2009,31(1):4-12HOU X Y.Research progress and extension effects of grassland protection and construction techniques in China[J].Chinese Journal of Grassland,2009,31(1):4-12
[5]陈操操,张妍,刘春兰,等.北京市能源消费与经济增长关系的协整检验分析[J].环境科学,2012,33(6):2139-2144CHEN C C,ZHANG Y,LIU C L,et al.Energy consumption and GDP growth in Beijing:Cointegration and causality analysis[J].Environmental Science,2012,33(6):2139-2144
[6]韩智勇,魏一鸣,焦建玲,等.中国能源消费与经济增长的协整性与因果关系分析[J].系统工程,2004,22(12):17-21HAN Z Y,WEI Y M,JIAO J L,et al.On the cointegration and causality between Chinese GDP and energy consumption[J].Systems Engineering,2004,22(12):17-21
[7]马宏伟,刘思峰,袁潮清,等.基于生产函数的中国能源消费与经济增长的多变量协整关系的分析[J].资源科学,2012,34(12):2374-2381MA H W,LIU S F,YUAN C Q,et al.Cointegration analysis of economic growth and energy consumption in China using a multivariate framework based on Neo-classical production[J].Resources Science,2012,34(12):2374-2381
[8]汪旭晖,刘勇.中国能源消费与经济增长:基于协整分析和Granger因果检验[J].资源科学,2007,29(5):57-62WANG X H,LIU Y.China’s energy consumption and economic growth:A study based on the cointegration analysis and Granger causality test[J].Resources Science,2007,29(5):57-62
[9]姬超,颜玮.广义系统下中国草地资源的退化成因与可持续利用对策[J].农业现代化研究,2013,34(5):538-542JI C,YAN W.Analysis of China grassland degradation problems and sustainable use under perspective of generalized system[J].Research of Agricultural Modernization,2013,34(5):538-542
[10]陈秋红.经济发展与草地资源退化之间的一般规律[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2010,20(11):122-127CHEN Q H.The general law of the relationship between natural grassland degradation and economic development in China[J].China Population,Resources and Environment,2010,20(11):122-127
[11]沈政,李军,张也.探析经济增长与保持草原生态--基于EKC理论的实证分析[J].中国农业资源与区划,2012,33(3):51-57SHEN Z,LI J,ZHANG Y.Does economic growth benefit grassland ecosystems[J].Chinese Journal of Agricultural Resources and Regional Planning,2012,33(3):51-57
[12]姚兴成,曲恬甜,常文静,等.基于MODIS数据和植被特征估算草地生物量[J].中国生态农业学报,2017,25(4):530-541YAO X C,QU T T,CHANG W J,et al.Estimation of grassland biomass using MODIS data and plant community characteristics[J].Chinese Journal of Eco-agriculture,2017,25(4):530-541
[13]吴郁玲,冯忠垒,周勇,等.耕地集约利用影响因素的协整分析[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2011,21(11):67-72WU Y L,FENG Z L,ZHOU Y,et al.Co-integration analysis on driving factors of intensive cultivated land use based on perspective of farmers:A case study of Hubei Province[J].China Population,Resources and Environment,2011,21(11):67-72
[14]WACKERNAGEL M,REES W.Our Ecological Footprint:Reducing Human Impact on the Earth[M].Gabriola Island:New Society Publishers,1996
[15]周涛,王云鹏,龚健周,等.生态足迹的模型修正与方法改进[J].生态学报,2015,35(14):4592-4603ZHOU T,WANG Y P,GONG J Z,et al.Ecological footprint model modification and method improvement[J].Acta Ecologica Sinica,2015,35(14):4592-4603
[16]刘玉杰,李向林,何峰.基于饲养标准的家畜单位折算方法[J].草地学报,2009,17(4):500-504LIU Y J,LI X L,HE F.Animal unit conversion method based on feeding standard[J].Acta Agrestia Sinica,2009,17(4):500-504
[17]WACKERNAGEL M,MONFREDA C,ERB K H,et al.Ecological footprint time series of Austria,the Philippines,and South Korea for 1961-1999:Comparing the conventional approach to an‘actual land area’approach[J].Land Use Policy,2004,21(3):261-269
[18]BAI J,PERRON P.Estimating and testing linear models with multiple structural changes[J].Econometrica,1998,66(1):47-78
[19]BAI J.Likelihood ratio tests for multiple structural changes[J].Journal of Econometrics,1999,91(2):299-323
[20]BAI J,PERRON P.Critical values for multiple structural change tests[J].Econometrics journal,2003,6(1):72-78
[21]王劲屹.农村金融发展、资本存量提升与农村经济增长[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2018,35(2):64-81WANG J Y.Rural financial development,capital stock increase,and rural economy growth[J].The Journal of Quantitative&Technical Economics,2018,35(2):64-81
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