常州市大气细颗粒物对老年人死亡影响的时间序列研究
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摘要
目的分析常州市大气细颗粒物(PM_(2.5))暴露对老年人死亡的影响。方法收集常州市2015年1月1日至2017年12月31日的居民全死因个案资料和同期常州市大气污染物浓度及气象监测资料,采用广义线性模型(GLM)在控制长期趋势、星期几效应及气象因素等混杂因素的基础上,分析PM_(2.5)对老年人(≥65岁)死亡的影响。结果 2015-2017年常州市大气PM_(2.5)浓度均值为50.0μg/m~3,超标天数共178天,老年人每日非意外总死亡54.6例,其中呼吸系统疾病日死亡7.7例,循环系统疾病日死亡22.1例。在单污染物模型中,大气PM_(2.5)浓度(lag04)每增加10μg/m~3时,老年人日非意外总死亡、呼吸系统疾病和循环系统疾病日死亡数分别增加0.92%(95%CI:0.29%～1.56%)、1.66%(95%CI:0.10%～3.31%)和1.22%(95%CI:0.24%～2.22%)。多污染物模型中,单独调整SO_2、NO_2或同时调整SO_2和NO_2后,PM_(2.5)对老年人非意外总死亡、呼吸系统疾病和循环系统疾病死亡的影响效应消失(P>0.05)。结论常州市大气PM_(2.5)污染对老年人死亡影响有一定的时间滞后性,显著增加老年人日非意外总死亡、呼吸系统疾病和循环系统疾病死亡数。
Objective To analysis the effects of fine particulate matter(PM_(2.5))on daily mortality in the aged people in Changzhou City.Methods The data of daily major air pollutants concentrations,meteorological monitoring factors and the death cases of residents from January 1,2015 to December 31,2017 were collected in Changzhou city.Poisson regression generalized linear model(GLM)was developed to analyse the effects of PM_(2.5) on the death of the aged people on the basis of controlling the confounding factors such as long-term trend,"days of the week" effect and meteorological factors.Results From 2015 to 2017,the average annual concentration of atmospheric PM_(2.5) in Changzhou was 50.0 μg/m~3.The days of exceeding the standard were 178 days.The daily average values of the total non-accidental mortality,respiratory disease mortality and circulatory disease mortality were 54.6 persons,7.7 persons and 22.1 persons in the aged people,respectively.In the single pollutant model,when the atmospheric PM_(2.5) concentration(lag04)increased 10 μg/m~3,the daily number of the total non-accidental mortality,respiratory disease mortality and circulatory disease mortality increased by 0.92%(95%CI:0.29% to 1.56%),1.66%(95%CI:0.10% to 3.31%)and 1.22%(95%CI:0.24% to 2.22%).As for the multi-pollutant model,the effect of PM_(2.5) on daily mortality disappeared(P>0.05)after individually or simultaneously introducing SO_2 and NO_2.Conclusion The atmospheric PM_(2.5) concentration has a certain lag adverse effect on the daily mortality of the aged people and significantly increases the daily number of the total non-accidental mortality,respiratory disease mortality and circulatory disease mortality in Changzhou City.
Objective To analysis the effects of fine particulate matter(PM_(2.5))on daily mortality in the aged people in Changzhou City.Methods The data of daily major air pollutants concentrations,meteorological monitoring factors and the death cases of residents from January 1,2015 to December 31,2017 were collected in Changzhou city.Poisson regression generalized linear model(GLM)was developed to analyse the effects of PM_(2.5) on the death of the aged people on the basis of controlling the confounding factors such as long-term trend,"days of the week" effect and meteorological factors.Results From 2015 to 2017,the average annual concentration of atmospheric PM_(2.5) in Changzhou was 50.0 μg/m~3.The days of exceeding the standard were 178 days.The daily average values of the total non-accidental mortality,respiratory disease mortality and circulatory disease mortality were 54.6 persons,7.7 persons and 22.1 persons in the aged people,respectively.In the single pollutant model,when the atmospheric PM_(2.5) concentration(lag04)increased 10 μg/m~3,the daily number of the total non-accidental mortality,respiratory disease mortality and circulatory disease mortality increased by 0.92%(95%CI:0.29% to 1.56%),1.66%(95%CI:0.10% to 3.31%)and 1.22%(95%CI:0.24% to 2.22%).As for the multi-pollutant model,the effect of PM_(2.5) on daily mortality disappeared(P>0.05)after individually or simultaneously introducing SO_2 and NO_2.Conclusion The atmospheric PM_(2.5) concentration has a certain lag adverse effect on the daily mortality of the aged people and significantly increases the daily number of the total non-accidental mortality,respiratory disease mortality and circulatory disease mortality in Changzhou City.
引文
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[7] Li G,Xue M,Zeng Q,et al.Association between fine ambient particulate matter and daily total mortality:an analysis from 160 communities of China[J].The Science of the Total Environment,2017,599/600:108-113.
[8] 张永利,莫哲,易井萍,等.舟山市大气PM2.5对居民循环系统疾病日死亡人数的影响[J].环境与职业医学,2017,34(3):224-229.
[9] 董凤鸣,莫运政,李国星,等.大气颗粒物(PM10/PM2.5)与人群循环系统疾病死亡关系的病例交叉研究[J].北京大学学报(医学版),2013,45(3):398-404.
[10] Di Q,Wang Y,Zanobetti A,et al.Air pollution and mortality in the Medicare population[J].New England Journal of Medicine,2017,376(26):2513-2522.
[11] 王跃,毛开云,王恒哲,等.面向老龄化和慢病推进我国大健康产业发展[J].生命科学,2018,30(8):884-890.
[2] 李湉湉,崔亮亮,陈晨,等.北京市2013年1月雾霾天气事件中PM2.5相关人群超额死亡风险评估[J].疾病监测,2015,30(8):668-671.
[3] Pope CA,Bhatnagar A,McCracken JP,et al.Exposure to fine particulate air pollution is associated with endothelial injury and systemic inflammation[J].Circulation Research,2016,119(11):1204-1214.
[4] Gharibvand L,Shavlik D,Ghamsary M,et al.The association between ambient fine particulate air pollution and lung cancer incidence:results from the AHSMOG-2 study[J].Environmental Health Perspectives,2017,125(3):378-384.
[5] Dockery DW,Pope CA,Xu X,et al.An association between air pollution and mortality in six U.S.cities[J].The New England Journal of Medicine,1993,329(24):1753-1759.
[6] Yang C,Peng X,Huang W,et al.A time-stratified case-crossover study of fine particulate matter air pollution and mortality in Guangzhou,China[J].International Archives of Occupational and Environmental Health,2012,85(5):579-585.
[7] Li G,Xue M,Zeng Q,et al.Association between fine ambient particulate matter and daily total mortality:an analysis from 160 communities of China[J].The Science of the Total Environment,2017,599/600:108-113.
[8] 张永利,莫哲,易井萍,等.舟山市大气PM2.5对居民循环系统疾病日死亡人数的影响[J].环境与职业医学,2017,34(3):224-229.
[9] 董凤鸣,莫运政,李国星,等.大气颗粒物(PM10/PM2.5)与人群循环系统疾病死亡关系的病例交叉研究[J].北京大学学报(医学版),2013,45(3):398-404.
[10] Di Q,Wang Y,Zanobetti A,et al.Air pollution and mortality in the Medicare population[J].New England Journal of Medicine,2017,376(26):2513-2522.
[11] 王跃,毛开云,王恒哲,等.面向老龄化和慢病推进我国大健康产业发展[J].生命科学,2018,30(8):884-890.