基于WASP模型的河流水质模拟及模糊风险评价
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摘要
为了对河流流域内水质风险进行高效且直观地评价,本文首先建立某河流流域的WASP水质模型,以碳化生化需氧量(CBOD)和氨氮(NH3-N)为水质指标,对比分析数值计算结果与河流监测断面的实测结果,验证所建立的WASP水质模型的准确性,并依据所建立的水质模型的计算结果,运用模糊数学理论,对该河流流域内水质风险进行模糊评价。结果表明,所建立的WASP水质模型的数值计算结果与实测值吻合较好,能够较准确地模拟河流中污染物输移扩散规律,通过对该河流流域进行水质模糊风险评价,可对河流水质受不确定性因素影响的安全风险程度进行定量化分析。因此,WASP水质模型结合模糊风险评价模型可实现对河流水质所存在的风险程度进行高效地预测和评价,为该河流流域的进一步污染治理奠定理论基础。
To evaluate the water quality risk of river regions effectively and intuitively,this paper firstly develops a water quality model using WASP model for a specified river region. Moreover,the numerical results,including the water quality indexes of both carbonized biochemical oxygen demand( CBOD) and ammonia nitrogen( NH3-N),are compared with the corresponding measured ones to validate the accuracy of the WASP model. Then,based on the calculation results of the water quality model,fuzzy mathematics theory is employed to estimate the fuzzy risk of water quality of the river. The results show that the numerical results are in good agreement with the corresponding measured ones. The WASP model is able to simulate transport and diffusion of the pollutants in the rivers accurately. Through evaluating the fuzzy risk of water quality,it could analyze the water quality safety risk level of the river affected by various uncertain factors numerically. Therefore,WASP water quality model combined with fuzzy risk assessment model can effectively predict and evaluate the risk degree of river water quality. It would be the theoretical foundation to the further pollutant treatments of the river regions.
To evaluate the water quality risk of river regions effectively and intuitively,this paper firstly develops a water quality model using WASP model for a specified river region. Moreover,the numerical results,including the water quality indexes of both carbonized biochemical oxygen demand( CBOD) and ammonia nitrogen( NH3-N),are compared with the corresponding measured ones to validate the accuracy of the WASP model. Then,based on the calculation results of the water quality model,fuzzy mathematics theory is employed to estimate the fuzzy risk of water quality of the river. The results show that the numerical results are in good agreement with the corresponding measured ones. The WASP model is able to simulate transport and diffusion of the pollutants in the rivers accurately. Through evaluating the fuzzy risk of water quality,it could analyze the water quality safety risk level of the river affected by various uncertain factors numerically. Therefore,WASP water quality model combined with fuzzy risk assessment model can effectively predict and evaluate the risk degree of river water quality. It would be the theoretical foundation to the further pollutant treatments of the river regions.
引文
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[14]周传林,杨赞华,苏梁,等.基于SPA的低等级公路路线方案评价[J].公路工程,2014,39(4):157-160.ZHOU C L,YANG Z H,SU L,et al.Low-grade highway schemes evaluation and optimization method[J].Highway Engineering,2014,39(4):157-160.
[15]胡珺.基于QUAL2K模型的水质模拟与水质风险评价[J].南水北调与水利科技,2015,13(6):1093-1096.HU J.Water quality simulation and water quality risk assessment based on QUAL2K model[J].South-to-North Water Transfers and Water Science&Technology,2015,13(6):1093-1096.
[16]张春荣,纪淑娟,朱红梅.基于层次分析和灰色分析的水质风险评价方法[J].水资源保护,2011,27(1):11-14.ZHANG C R,JI S J,ZHU H M.Water quality risk assessment based on analytic hierarchy process and gray analysis method[J].Water Resources Protection,2011,27(1):11-14.
[17]陈雪,王岩,赵眉芳,等.基于层次分析法的森林生态环境评价体系的研究[J].林业科技,2014,39(6):57-59.CHEN X,WANG Y,ZHAO M F,et al.Study on forest ecological environment assessment system based on analytic hierarchy process[J].Forestry Science&Technology,2014,39(6):57-59.
[18]FANG Y H,ZHENG X L,PENG H,et al.A new method of the relative membership degree calculation in variable fuzzy sets for water quality assessment[J].Ecological Indicators,2019,98:515-522.
[19]李如忠,洪天求,金菊良.河流水质模糊风险评价模型研究[J].武汉理工大学学报,2007,29(2):43-46.LI R Z,HONG T Q,JIN J L.Research on fuzzy risk assessment model for river water quality[J].Journal of Wuhan University of Technology,2007,29(2):43-46.
[20]康静,邹志红.再生水补给河流的水质模糊风险评价[J].数学的实践与认识,2014,44(18):109-113.KANG J,ZOU Z H.Fuzzy assessment of water quality risk for rivers supplemented by reused water[J].Mathematics in Practice and Theory,2014,44(18):109-113.
[2]王思文.基于WASP模型的松花江哈尔滨段水环境容量模拟及总量控制研究[D].哈尔滨:哈尔滨师范大学,2015.WANG S W.Study on water environmental capacity and total quantity control based on WASP model in Harbin section of the Songhua river[D].Harbin:Harbin Normal University,2015.
[3]张佩芳,朱文杰,任妍冰,等.基于WASP7模型的水质模拟应用---以淮沭新河东海段为例[J].环境监控与预警,2018,10(2):11-14.ZHANG P F,ZHU W J,REN Y B,et al.Application for on water quality simulation based on WASP 7 model-A case study on Donghai section of Huaishuxin river[J].Environmental Monitoring and Forewarning,2018,10(2):11-14.
[4]MBUH M J,MBIH R,WENDI C.Water quality modeling and sensitivity analysis using Water Quality Analysis Simulation Program(WASP)in the Shenandoah River watershed[J].Physical Geography,2019,40(2):127-148.
[5]任宗仲,陈艳艳,曹俊秀.基于WASP模型的水质模拟研究---以潘阳湖南矶山断面为例[J].广东化工,2017,44(19):67-68.REN Z Z,CHEN Y Y,CAO J X.Research on the water quality simulation based on WASP-A case study on Nanjishan in Poyang Lake[J].Guangdong Chemical Industry,2017,44(19):67-68.
[6]陈文君,段伟利,贺斌,等.基于WASP模型的太湖流域上游茅山地区典型乡村流域水质模拟[J].湖泊科学,2017,29(4):836-847.CHEN W J,DUAN W L,HE B,et al.Water quality modeling for typical rural watershed based on the WASP model in mountain Mao region,under Taihu basin[J].Journal of Lake Sciences,2017,29(4):836-847.
[7]徐盼盼,杨咪,钱会,等.基于WASP对渝河NH3-N排放方案的研究[J].环境工程,2017,35(8):168-172.XU P P,YANG M,QIAN H,et al.Study on NH3-N emission scheme of Yu river based on WASP model[J].Environmental Engineering,2017,35(8):168-172.
[8]徐晶.基于WASP模型灞河流域水质目标管理方案研究[D].西安:陕西科技大学,2018.XU J.Study on the water quality standard management plan of the Bahe river basin based on WASP model[D].Xi’an:Shanxi University of Science and Technology,2018.
[9]孟祥仪.基于WASP模型的宁夏清水河水质预警研究[D].西安:长安大学,2017.MENG X Y.Water quality early warning of Qingshui river Ningxia based on WASP model[D].Xi’an:Chang’an University,2017.
[10]王雅格.基于EFDC和WASP模型的入河排污口污染物影响预测[J].山西科技,2018,33(6):128-130.WANG Y G.Prediction of pollutant impact at the sewage outfall of river based on EFDC and WASP models[J].Shanxi Science and Technology,2018,33(6):128-130.
[11]刘引鸽,史鹏英,张妍.渭河干流陕西段河流水质污染风险评价[J].水资源与水工程学报,2015,26(3):51-54.LIU Y G,SHI P Y,ZHANG Y.Risk assessment on pollution of river water quality in Shaanxi section of Weihe river[J].Journal of Water Resources&Water Engineering,2015,26(3):51-54.
[12]韩晓刚.城市水源水质风险评价及应急处理方法研究[D].西安:西安建筑科技大学,2011.HAN X G.Assessment of water quality risk and study on emergent treatment method[D].Xi’an:Xi’an University of Architecture and Technology,2011.
[13]徐晨光,艾尼瓦尔·艾买提,杜青辉.基于SPA和信息熵的可变模糊集水质评价方法[J].人民黄河,2013,35(6):56-58.XU C G,AINIWAER A,DU Q H.Set pair analysis method and information entropy based variable fuzzy set assessment for groundwater quality[J].Yellow River,2013,35(6):56-58.
[14]周传林,杨赞华,苏梁,等.基于SPA的低等级公路路线方案评价[J].公路工程,2014,39(4):157-160.ZHOU C L,YANG Z H,SU L,et al.Low-grade highway schemes evaluation and optimization method[J].Highway Engineering,2014,39(4):157-160.
[15]胡珺.基于QUAL2K模型的水质模拟与水质风险评价[J].南水北调与水利科技,2015,13(6):1093-1096.HU J.Water quality simulation and water quality risk assessment based on QUAL2K model[J].South-to-North Water Transfers and Water Science&Technology,2015,13(6):1093-1096.
[16]张春荣,纪淑娟,朱红梅.基于层次分析和灰色分析的水质风险评价方法[J].水资源保护,2011,27(1):11-14.ZHANG C R,JI S J,ZHU H M.Water quality risk assessment based on analytic hierarchy process and gray analysis method[J].Water Resources Protection,2011,27(1):11-14.
[17]陈雪,王岩,赵眉芳,等.基于层次分析法的森林生态环境评价体系的研究[J].林业科技,2014,39(6):57-59.CHEN X,WANG Y,ZHAO M F,et al.Study on forest ecological environment assessment system based on analytic hierarchy process[J].Forestry Science&Technology,2014,39(6):57-59.
[18]FANG Y H,ZHENG X L,PENG H,et al.A new method of the relative membership degree calculation in variable fuzzy sets for water quality assessment[J].Ecological Indicators,2019,98:515-522.
[19]李如忠,洪天求,金菊良.河流水质模糊风险评价模型研究[J].武汉理工大学学报,2007,29(2):43-46.LI R Z,HONG T Q,JIN J L.Research on fuzzy risk assessment model for river water quality[J].Journal of Wuhan University of Technology,2007,29(2):43-46.
[20]康静,邹志红.再生水补给河流的水质模糊风险评价[J].数学的实践与认识,2014,44(18):109-113.KANG J,ZOU Z H.Fuzzy assessment of water quality risk for rivers supplemented by reused water[J].Mathematics in Practice and Theory,2014,44(18):109-113.