考虑大孔隙下渗的HBV模型及其在山洪预报中的应用
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摘要
小流域山洪预报一直是水文学研究的热点和难点问题之一。考虑到土壤大孔隙在径流形成过程中的重要作用,采用变动面积法为HBV模型增添大孔隙模块,并以黄泥庄小流域为研究区,使用改进后的HBV模型模拟分析了2010-2015年间6次洪水事件。结果表明:改进后的HBV模型在黄泥庄流域洪水模拟中模拟效果较好,预报精度均在乙级以上,可用于模拟类似小流域短历时高强度的洪水,从而为淮河流域上游山区的防汛决策提供重要参考。
The flash flood forecasting in small basin is one of the hot and difficult topics in hydrology research. Given the important effect of the soil macropore in runoff formation process,a macropore flow module was added in the HBV model via variable area approach. A case study containing six flood events was operated within Huangnizhuang Basin using the improved HBV model during 2010 and 2015. The results showed that the improved HBV model performs well in Huangnizhuang Basin with the forecast accuracy of the six flood events is grade B or higher,which indicates that the improved HBV model is suitable for the similar basin characterized by short-lived high intensity flash flood. This study can also provide important reference for mountainous basins flood control decision over the upper Huaihe River.
The flash flood forecasting in small basin is one of the hot and difficult topics in hydrology research. Given the important effect of the soil macropore in runoff formation process,a macropore flow module was added in the HBV model via variable area approach. A case study containing six flood events was operated within Huangnizhuang Basin using the improved HBV model during 2010 and 2015. The results showed that the improved HBV model performs well in Huangnizhuang Basin with the forecast accuracy of the six flood events is grade B or higher,which indicates that the improved HBV model is suitable for the similar basin characterized by short-lived high intensity flash flood. This study can also provide important reference for mountainous basins flood control decision over the upper Huaihe River.
引文
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[13]谷一,郝振纯,王国庆,等. HBV模型在逊毕拉河流域的适用性研究[J].水资源与水工程学报,2017,28(1):20-25.
[14]张坤,包为民,赵丽平,等.基于参数线性化率定法的HBV模型的优化算法及应用[J].水电能源科学,2013,31(9):8-11.
[15]LHaishen,HOU Ting,HORTON R,et al. The streamflow estimation using the Xinanjiang rainfall runoff model and dual state-parameter estimation method[J]. Journal of Hydrology,2013,480:102-114.
[2]郭克伦.耦合降雨集合预报的山洪预警技术研究[D].大连:大连理工大学,2016.
[3]BERGSTRM S,SINGH V P. The HBV model[J]. CAB Direct,1995.
[4]赵彦增,张建新,章树安,等. HBV模型在淮河官寨流域的应用研究[J].水文,2007,27(2):57-59+6.
[5]王有恒,谭丹,景元书. HBV水文预报模型在白龙江流域的应用研究[J].水土保持通报,2015,35(3):218-221.
[6] DEHN M,BRGER G,BUMA J,et al. Impact of climate change on slope stability using expanded downscaling[J].Engineering Geology,2000,55(3):193-204.
[7]张小娜,冯杰.大孔隙分布对坡地产汇流及溶质运移的影响[J].水土保持通报,2014,34(6):22-26.
[8]王维国,章建成,李想. 2007年淮河流域大洪水的雨情、水情分析[J].气象,2008,34(7):68-74.
[9]肖庆元,王建群,贾洋洋.淮北平原概念性流域水文模型研究[J].中国农村水利水电,2014(12):20-23.
[10]李相虎,任立良,刘晓帆. BTOPMC模型在小流域的适宜性及参数敏感性研究[J].水电能源科学,2008,26(1):5-8+36.
[11]许吟隆,RICHARD J.利用ECMWF再分析数据验证PRECIS对中国区域气候的模拟能力[J].中国农业气象,2004,25(1):5-9.
[12]李川,张廷军,陈静.近40年青藏高原地区的气候变化———NCEP和ECMWF地面气温及降水再分析和实测资料对比分析[J].高原气象,2004,V23(S1):97-103.
[13]谷一,郝振纯,王国庆,等. HBV模型在逊毕拉河流域的适用性研究[J].水资源与水工程学报,2017,28(1):20-25.
[14]张坤,包为民,赵丽平,等.基于参数线性化率定法的HBV模型的优化算法及应用[J].水电能源科学,2013,31(9):8-11.
[15]LHaishen,HOU Ting,HORTON R,et al. The streamflow estimation using the Xinanjiang rainfall runoff model and dual state-parameter estimation method[J]. Journal of Hydrology,2013,480:102-114.