矿井瓦斯超限实时预警技术研究
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摘要
为解决瓦斯超限的预测预报问题,根据瓦斯超限前煤体及工作面环境表现出的前兆特征,依据矿井瓦斯超限影响因素,从瓦斯、通风、地质构造、管理等方面,建立了瓦斯超限预警指标体系,利用瓦斯体积分数变化指标作为实时预警指标,其他指标作为趋势预警指标,针对瓦斯超限单指标误报率高的问题,利用模糊数学理论建立了瓦斯超限多指标模型,确定了权重值和评价值。在某矿井建立了工作面瓦斯超限实时预警系统,输出红色、黄色及绿色3级瓦斯超限预警结果,得出了瓦斯超限发生的概率,根据瓦斯超限预警结果采取相应措施可以大幅降低瓦斯超限次数;多指标模型预警与单指标模型预警对比结果表明:红色预警次数可以减少50%以上,黄色预警次数减少30%以上,说明采用多指标量化模型比单一指标模型更为合理,提高了预警准确率,为煤矿安全生产提供管理依据,也为类似预警指标研究提供参考。
In order to solve the problem of forecasting gas overrun,according to the precursory characteristics of coal body and working face environment before gas exceeds the limit,the index system of gas overrun early warning was established from the aspects of gas,ventilation,geological structure and management and other influencing factors,using the gas,the influencing factors of gas overrun in a coal mine,volume fraction change index as a real-time early warning indicator,and other indicators are used as trend early warning indicators.Based on the problem of high false alarm rate of single indicator of gas exceeding limit,a multi-index model of gas exceeding limit is established by using the theory of fuzzy mathematics,and the weights and evaluation values are determined.A real-time warning system for gas overrun in working face are established in a affiliated coal mine,and the three-level warning results of red,yellow and green gas overrun were output,and the probability of occurrence of gas overrun are obtained. According to the results of gas overrun warning,the corresponding measures can be taken and this can greatly reduce the number of gas overrun.The comparison between multi-index model warning and single-index model warning is made: the number of red warning times can be reduced by more than 50% and the number of yellow warning by more than 30%,indicating the multi-index quantitative model is more reasonable than the single-index model,which improves the accuracy of early warning,provides management basis for coal mine safety production and supply references for similar early warning index research.
In order to solve the problem of forecasting gas overrun,according to the precursory characteristics of coal body and working face environment before gas exceeds the limit,the index system of gas overrun early warning was established from the aspects of gas,ventilation,geological structure and management and other influencing factors,using the gas,the influencing factors of gas overrun in a coal mine,volume fraction change index as a real-time early warning indicator,and other indicators are used as trend early warning indicators.Based on the problem of high false alarm rate of single indicator of gas exceeding limit,a multi-index model of gas exceeding limit is established by using the theory of fuzzy mathematics,and the weights and evaluation values are determined.A real-time warning system for gas overrun in working face are established in a affiliated coal mine,and the three-level warning results of red,yellow and green gas overrun were output,and the probability of occurrence of gas overrun are obtained. According to the results of gas overrun warning,the corresponding measures can be taken and this can greatly reduce the number of gas overrun.The comparison between multi-index model warning and single-index model warning is made: the number of red warning times can be reduced by more than 50% and the number of yellow warning by more than 30%,indicating the multi-index quantitative model is more reasonable than the single-index model,which improves the accuracy of early warning,provides management basis for coal mine safety production and supply references for similar early warning index research.
引文
[1]李海臣.采煤工作面瓦斯浓度超限预警技术及装备研究[D].徐州:中国矿业大学,2011:13-18.
[2]朱庆轩,朱坤飞.防止瓦斯超限预警管理系统的构建与实施[J].价值工程,2013,32(29):144-146.ZHU Qingxuan,ZHU Kunfei. The construction and implementation of early warning management system of preventing transfinite gas[J].Value Engineering,2013,32(29):144-146.
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[4]付建华,程远平.中国煤矿煤与瓦斯突出现状及防治对策[J].采矿与安全工程学报,2007,24(3):253-259.FU Jianhua,CHENG Yuanping. Situation of coal and gas outburst in China and control countermeasures[J]. Journal of Mining&Safety Engineering,2007,24(3):253-259.
[5]胡千庭,赵旭生.中国煤与瓦斯突出事故现状及其预防的对策建议[J].矿业安全与环保,2012,39(5):1-6.HU Qianting,ZHAO Xusheng.Current situation of coal and gas outburst accidents and countermeasures and suggestions for prevention in China[J]. Mining Safety&Environmental Protection,2012,39(5):1-6.
[6]程远平,张晓磊,王亮.地应力对瓦斯压力及突出灾害的控制作用研究[J].采矿与安全工程学报,2013,30(3):408-414.CHENG Yuanping,ZHANG Xiaolei,WANG Liang. Controlling effect of ground stress on gas pressure and outburst disaster[J].Journal of Mining&Safety Engineering,2013,30(3):408-414.
[7]陈亮.掘进工作面煤与瓦斯突出实时监测预警技术研究[D].徐州:中国矿业大学,2016:36-45.
[8]李绍泉,李青松,衡献伟,等.煤与瓦斯突出预警技术现状与展望[J].煤矿安全,2013,44(5):160-163.LI Shaoquan,LI Qingsong,HENG Xianwei,et al. Status and prospects of coal and gas outburst early warning technology[J]. Safety in Coal Mines,2013,44(5):160-163.
[9]关维娟,张国枢,赵志根,等.煤与瓦斯突出多指标综合辨识与实时预警研究[J].采矿与安全工程学报,2013,30(6):922-929.GUAN Weijuan,ZHANG Guoyu,ZHAO Zhigen,et al. Multi-index comprehensive identification and real-time warning of coal and gas outburst[J]. Journal of Mining&Safety Engineering,2013,30(6):922-929.
[10]覃木广,赵旭生,张庆华,等.基于瓦斯地质特征的突出预警模型研究[J].煤炭科学技术,2018,46(12):138-144.QIN Muguang,ZHAO Xusheng,ZHANG Qinghua,et al. Study on outburst early warning model based on gas geological features[J].Coal Science and Technology,2018,46(12):138-144.
[11]尹昌旺,许学超.煤矿安全监控系统瓦斯报警的原因分析[J].煤炭技术,2007,26(6):73-75.YIN Changwang,XU Xuechao. Analysis of gas warning cause in coal mine safety supervisory control system[J].Coal Technology,2007,26(6):73-75.
[12]许瑞.煤矿瓦斯安全状况的决策预测研究[J].煤矿机械,2018,39(3):4-6.XU Rui.Study on decision-making prediction of gas safety in coal mine[J].Coal Mine Machinery,2018,39(3):4-6.
[13]杨宏伟,李海贵,徐光亮.成庄矿瓦斯超限及突出预警系统[J].煤矿安全,2016,47(9):101-103.YANG Hongwei,LI Haigui,XU Guangliang.Gas overrun and outburst early warning system in Chengzhuang Coal Mine[J]. Safety in Coal Mines,2016,47(9):101-103.
[14]胡宝清.模糊理论基础.[M].武汉:武汉大学出版社,2010:28-36.
[15]姚庆国,赵丽霞,张学睦.煤矿安全管理信息系统模糊综合评价模型[J].矿业安全与环保,2017,44(6):120-124.YAO Qingguo,ZHAO Lixia,ZHANG Xuemu.Fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model of coal mine safety management information system[J]. Mining Safety&Environmental Protection,2017,44(6):120-124.
[16]朱静.基于模糊综合评价法的煤矿安全评价[J].煤矿安全,2014,45(4):226-228.ZHU Jin. Coal mine safety evaluation based on fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method[J].Safety in Coal Mines,2014,45(4):226-228.
[17]高保彬,钱亚楠,陈立伟,等.瓦斯压力对煤样冲击倾向性影响研究[J].煤炭科学技术,2018,46(10):58-64.GAO Baobin,QIAN Yanan,CHEN Liwei,et al. Study on gas pressure affected to bump potential of coal sample[J]. Coal Science and Technology,2018,46(10):58-64.
[18]张东,聂百胜,王龙康.我国煤矿安全生产事故的致灾因素分析[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2013,9(5):136-140.ZHANG Dong,NIE Baisheng,WANG Longkang. Investigation a disaster-causing factors of coal mine accidents in China[J].Journal of Safety Science and Technology,2013,9(5):136-140.
[19]马越,米捷.基于云计算的矿井瓦斯预警研究[J].煤炭技术,2018,37(7):213-215.MA Yue,MI Jie. Research on mine gas early warning based on cloud computing[J].Coal Technology,2018,37(7):213-215.
[20]刘晋隆.预警管理机制在煤矿瓦斯治理过程中的应用[J].中国煤炭,2011,37(9):101-103.LIU Jinlong.Early warning management mechanism applied in gas control in coal mines[J].China Coal,2011,37(9):101-103.
[2]朱庆轩,朱坤飞.防止瓦斯超限预警管理系统的构建与实施[J].价值工程,2013,32(29):144-146.ZHU Qingxuan,ZHU Kunfei. The construction and implementation of early warning management system of preventing transfinite gas[J].Value Engineering,2013,32(29):144-146.
[3]张建国.中国平煤神马集团瓦斯防治体系建设[J].煤炭科学技术,2017,45(8):13-18.ZHANG Jianguo. Construction of gas prevention and control system in China Pingmei Shenma Group[J]. Coal Science and Technology,2017,45(8):13-18.
[4]付建华,程远平.中国煤矿煤与瓦斯突出现状及防治对策[J].采矿与安全工程学报,2007,24(3):253-259.FU Jianhua,CHENG Yuanping. Situation of coal and gas outburst in China and control countermeasures[J]. Journal of Mining&Safety Engineering,2007,24(3):253-259.
[5]胡千庭,赵旭生.中国煤与瓦斯突出事故现状及其预防的对策建议[J].矿业安全与环保,2012,39(5):1-6.HU Qianting,ZHAO Xusheng.Current situation of coal and gas outburst accidents and countermeasures and suggestions for prevention in China[J]. Mining Safety&Environmental Protection,2012,39(5):1-6.
[6]程远平,张晓磊,王亮.地应力对瓦斯压力及突出灾害的控制作用研究[J].采矿与安全工程学报,2013,30(3):408-414.CHENG Yuanping,ZHANG Xiaolei,WANG Liang. Controlling effect of ground stress on gas pressure and outburst disaster[J].Journal of Mining&Safety Engineering,2013,30(3):408-414.
[7]陈亮.掘进工作面煤与瓦斯突出实时监测预警技术研究[D].徐州:中国矿业大学,2016:36-45.
[8]李绍泉,李青松,衡献伟,等.煤与瓦斯突出预警技术现状与展望[J].煤矿安全,2013,44(5):160-163.LI Shaoquan,LI Qingsong,HENG Xianwei,et al. Status and prospects of coal and gas outburst early warning technology[J]. Safety in Coal Mines,2013,44(5):160-163.
[9]关维娟,张国枢,赵志根,等.煤与瓦斯突出多指标综合辨识与实时预警研究[J].采矿与安全工程学报,2013,30(6):922-929.GUAN Weijuan,ZHANG Guoyu,ZHAO Zhigen,et al. Multi-index comprehensive identification and real-time warning of coal and gas outburst[J]. Journal of Mining&Safety Engineering,2013,30(6):922-929.
[10]覃木广,赵旭生,张庆华,等.基于瓦斯地质特征的突出预警模型研究[J].煤炭科学技术,2018,46(12):138-144.QIN Muguang,ZHAO Xusheng,ZHANG Qinghua,et al. Study on outburst early warning model based on gas geological features[J].Coal Science and Technology,2018,46(12):138-144.
[11]尹昌旺,许学超.煤矿安全监控系统瓦斯报警的原因分析[J].煤炭技术,2007,26(6):73-75.YIN Changwang,XU Xuechao. Analysis of gas warning cause in coal mine safety supervisory control system[J].Coal Technology,2007,26(6):73-75.
[12]许瑞.煤矿瓦斯安全状况的决策预测研究[J].煤矿机械,2018,39(3):4-6.XU Rui.Study on decision-making prediction of gas safety in coal mine[J].Coal Mine Machinery,2018,39(3):4-6.
[13]杨宏伟,李海贵,徐光亮.成庄矿瓦斯超限及突出预警系统[J].煤矿安全,2016,47(9):101-103.YANG Hongwei,LI Haigui,XU Guangliang.Gas overrun and outburst early warning system in Chengzhuang Coal Mine[J]. Safety in Coal Mines,2016,47(9):101-103.
[14]胡宝清.模糊理论基础.[M].武汉:武汉大学出版社,2010:28-36.
[15]姚庆国,赵丽霞,张学睦.煤矿安全管理信息系统模糊综合评价模型[J].矿业安全与环保,2017,44(6):120-124.YAO Qingguo,ZHAO Lixia,ZHANG Xuemu.Fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model of coal mine safety management information system[J]. Mining Safety&Environmental Protection,2017,44(6):120-124.
[16]朱静.基于模糊综合评价法的煤矿安全评价[J].煤矿安全,2014,45(4):226-228.ZHU Jin. Coal mine safety evaluation based on fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method[J].Safety in Coal Mines,2014,45(4):226-228.
[17]高保彬,钱亚楠,陈立伟,等.瓦斯压力对煤样冲击倾向性影响研究[J].煤炭科学技术,2018,46(10):58-64.GAO Baobin,QIAN Yanan,CHEN Liwei,et al. Study on gas pressure affected to bump potential of coal sample[J]. Coal Science and Technology,2018,46(10):58-64.
[18]张东,聂百胜,王龙康.我国煤矿安全生产事故的致灾因素分析[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2013,9(5):136-140.ZHANG Dong,NIE Baisheng,WANG Longkang. Investigation a disaster-causing factors of coal mine accidents in China[J].Journal of Safety Science and Technology,2013,9(5):136-140.
[19]马越,米捷.基于云计算的矿井瓦斯预警研究[J].煤炭技术,2018,37(7):213-215.MA Yue,MI Jie. Research on mine gas early warning based on cloud computing[J].Coal Technology,2018,37(7):213-215.
[20]刘晋隆.预警管理机制在煤矿瓦斯治理过程中的应用[J].中国煤炭,2011,37(9):101-103.LIU Jinlong.Early warning management mechanism applied in gas control in coal mines[J].China Coal,2011,37(9):101-103.