基于海岛生态脆弱性模拟的朱家尖岛空间管控对策
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摘要
近10年来,桥隧连陆型海岛数量快速增长,这类工程的建设改善了海岛的交通可达性,使得海岛旅游人口快速增长,实现了海岛经济的快速发展.而旅游人口的快速增加和海岛土地利用结构的变化,使得海岛生态脆弱性增加.为实现海岛生态系统的科学管理,科学评价和预测海岛生态系统脆弱性变化趋势及敏感区域,制定不同区域的生态系统管理方式显得尤为迫切.本研究构建了海岛生态脆弱性评价模型,评估了朱家尖岛生态脆弱性现状,以2015年作为基期模拟未来20年旅游人口和土地利用变化,以及未来20年的海岛生态脆弱性变化,在此基础上分析脆弱性变化的敏感区域,并提出相应的管理措施.结果表明:朱家尖岛目前的生态系统处于良好状态,中度和重度脆弱性面积相对较小.随着朱家尖岛旅游人口增加和岛陆开发强度的增强,海岛生态系统趋于脆弱,其中,高脆弱性面积增加,低脆弱性面积减少.针对脆弱性评估的结果结合敏感性分析,将朱家尖岛划分为禁止开发区、限制开发区和有条件开发区,以实现精细化管理.
In the past decade, the number of islands fixed link with mainland has been increasing rapidly. The construction of such projects improves the accessibility of islands, which results in a rapid increase of tourists and economic income. However, the rapid change of land use and increases of tourists will make the islands more vulnerable. It is urgent to formulate ecosystem management strategy for island ecosystems based on the scientifical prediction of the island ecological vulnerability and accurate identification of sensitive areas. Island ecological vulnerability assessment model was used to evaluate the ecological vulnerability of Zhujiajian Island. Taking 2015 as the starting date, we simulated the changes of tourists and land use, as well as the changes of island ecological vulnerability in the next 20 years. Then, the management strategy was formulated based on the vulnerability assessment and sensitive analysis. The results showed that the ecosystem of Zhujiajian Island was in good condition now, with limited area at moderate and severe vulnerable status. With the rapid increases of tourists and island development intensity, the ecological vulnerability of the island tended to more vulnerability with the increases of severe vulnerability and shrink of low vulnerability. According to the vulnerability assessment and sensitivity analysis, the Zhujiajian Island could be divided into prohibited development zones, restricted development zones and conditional development zones with different ecosystem management strategies.
In the past decade, the number of islands fixed link with mainland has been increasing rapidly. The construction of such projects improves the accessibility of islands, which results in a rapid increase of tourists and economic income. However, the rapid change of land use and increases of tourists will make the islands more vulnerable. It is urgent to formulate ecosystem management strategy for island ecosystems based on the scientifical prediction of the island ecological vulnerability and accurate identification of sensitive areas. Island ecological vulnerability assessment model was used to evaluate the ecological vulnerability of Zhujiajian Island. Taking 2015 as the starting date, we simulated the changes of tourists and land use, as well as the changes of island ecological vulnerability in the next 20 years. Then, the management strategy was formulated based on the vulnerability assessment and sensitive analysis. The results showed that the ecosystem of Zhujiajian Island was in good condition now, with limited area at moderate and severe vulnerable status. With the rapid increases of tourists and island development intensity, the ecological vulnerability of the island tended to more vulnerability with the increases of severe vulnerability and shrink of low vulnerability. According to the vulnerability assessment and sensitivity analysis, the Zhujiajian Island could be divided into prohibited development zones, restricted development zones and conditional development zones with different ecosystem management strategies.
引文
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[37] Chen Y-G (陈彦光).On the urbanization curves:Types,stages,and research methods.Scientia Geographica Sinica (地理科学),2012,32(1):12-17 (in Chinese)
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[40] Bonati S.Resilientscapes:Perception and resilience to reduce vulnerability in the Island of Madeira.Procedia Economics and Finance,2014,18:513-520
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[45] Kessler WB,Salwasser H,Cartwright CW,et al.New perspectives for sustainable natural resources management.Ecological Applications,1992,2:221-225
[46] Saenz-Arroyo A,Roberts CM.Consilience in fisheries science.Fish and Fisheries,2008,9:316-327
[47] Holling CS,Meffe GK.Command and control and the pathology of natural resource management.Conservation Biology,1996,10:328-337
[48] DeFries R,Nagendra H.Ecosystem management as a wicked problem.Science,2017,356:265-270
[49] Levin S,Xepapadeas T,Crépin AS,et al.Social-ecological systems as complex adaptive systems:Modeling and policy implications.Environment and Development Economics,2013,18:111-132
[50] Heesterbeek H,Anderson RM,Andreasen V,et al.Modeling infectious disease dynamics in the complex landscape of global health.Science,2015,347:1-10
[2] Tzanopoulos J,Vogiatzakis IN.Processes and patterns of landscape change on a small Aegean island:The case of Sifnos,Greece.Landscape and Urban Planning,2011,99:58-64
[3] Madany IM,Ali SM,Akhter MS.Assessment of lead in roadside vegetation in Bahrain.Environment Internatio-nal,1990,16:123-126
[4] Mcelroy JL.A world of islands:An island studies rea-der.Geographical Review,2007,97:304-306
[5] Xie ZL,Li XZ,Zhang YQ,et al.Accelerated expansion of built-up area after bridge connection with mainland:A case study of Zhujiajian Island.Ocean & Coastal Management,2018,152:62-69
[6] Chi Y (池源),Shi H-H (石洪华),Guo Z (郭振),et al.Connotation,features and causes of island ecological vulnerability.Acta Oceanologica Sinica (海洋学报),2015,37(12):93-105 (in Chinese)
[7] Chi Y,Shi HH,Wang YY,et al.Evaluation on island ecological vulnerability and its spatial heterogeneity.Marine Pollution Bulletin,2017,125:216-241
[8] Cao WT,Li R,Chi XL,et al.Island urbanization and its ecological consequences:A case study in the Zhou-shan Island,East China.Ecological Indicators,2017,76:1-14
[9] Porta DD,Piazza G.Local contention,global framing:The protest campaigns against the TAV in Val di Susa and the bridge on the Messina Straits.Environmental Politics,2007,16:864-882
[10] Patarasuk R,Binford MW.Longitudinal analysis of the road network development and land-cover change in Lop Buri Province,Thailand,1989-2006.Applied Geography,2012,32:228-239
[11] Pan JH,Liu WS.Quantitative delimitation of urban influential hinterland in China.Journal of Urban Planning and Development,2014,141:04014033
[12] Zhang Y-Q (张运清),Xie Z-L (谢作轮),Li X-Z (李秀珍),et al.Influence of connection with mainland via bridge on land use of islands:A case study of Zhujiajian.Journal of Ecology and Rural Environment (生态与农村环境学报),2017,33(7):607-614 (in Chinese)
[13] Aljarad SN,Black WR.Modeling Saudi Arabia-Bahrain corridor mode choice.Journal of Transport Geography,1995,3:257-268
[14] Li D,Maes MA,Dilger WH.Thermal design criteria for deep prestressed concrete girders based on data from Confederation Bridge.Canadian Journal of Civil Engineering,2004,31:813-825
[15] Gazder U,Hussain SA.Traffic forecasting for King Fahd Causeway using artificial neural networks.Computer Modelling and Simulation (UKSim),2013 UKSim 15th International Conference of IEEE,Cambridge,2013:1-5
[16] Jassim MS,Coskuner G.Assessment of spatial variations of particulate matter (PM10 and PM2.5) in Bahrain identified by air quality index (AQI).Arabian Journal of Geosciences,2017,10:1-14
[17] Saint-Béat B,Baird D,Asmus H,et al.Trophic networks:How do theories link ecosystem structure and functioning to stability properties?A review.Ecological Indicators,2015,52:458-471
[18] Li XH,Lin T,Zhang GQ,et al.Dynamic analysis of urban spatial expansion and its determinants in Xiamen Island.Journal of Geographical Sciences,2011,21:503-520
[19] Racault MF,Sathyendranath S,Platt T.Impact of mis-sing data on the estimation of ecological indicators from satellite ocean-colour time-series.Remote Sensing of Environment,2014,152:15-28
[20] Tessler Z,V?r?smarty C,Grossberg M,et al.Profiling risk and sustainability in coastal deltas of the world.Science,2015,349:638-643
[21] Morgan LK,Werner AD.Seawater intrusion vulnerability indicators for freshwater lenses in strip islands.Journal of Hydrology,2014,508:322-327
[22] Taramelli A,Valentini E,Sterlacchini S.A GIS-based approach for hurricane hazard and vulnerability assessment in the Cayman Islands.Ocean & Coastal Management,2015,108:116-130
[23] Pelling M,Uitto JI.Small island developing states:Na-tural disaster vulnerability and global change.Global Environmental Change Part B:Environmental Hazards,2001,3:49-62
[24] Mandal S,Satpati L,Choudhury B,et al.Climate change vulnerability to agrarian ecosystem of small island:Evidence from Sagar Island,India.Theoretical and Applied Climatology,2017,132:1-14
[25] Qiu PH,Xu SJ,Xie GZ,et al.Analysis of the ecological vulnerability of the western Hainan Island based on its landscape pattern and ecosystem sensitivity.Acta Ecologica Sinica,2007,27:1257-1264
[26] Farhan AR,Lim S.Vulnerability assessment of ecological conditions in Seribu Islands,Indonesia.Ocean & Coastal Management,2012,65:1-14
[27] Fazey I,Kesby M,Evely A,et al.A three-tiered approach to participatory vulnerability assessment in the Solomon Islands.Global Environmental Change,2010,20:713-728
[28] Lin Y (林勇),Fan J-F (樊景凤),Wen Q (温泉),et al.Primary exploration of ecological theories and technologies for delineation of ecological redline zones.Acta Ecologica Sinica (生态学报),2016,36(5):1244-1252 (in Chinese)
[29] Huang W (黄伟),Zeng J-N (曾江宁),Chen Q-Z (陈全震),et al.Preliminary research on the zoning method of the marine ecological red line:A case study of Hainan Province.Acta Ecologica Sinica (生态学报),2016,36(1):268-276 (in Chinese)
[30] Lasanta T,Vicente-Serrano SM.Complex land cover change processes in semiarid Mediterranean regions:An approach using Landsat images in northeast Spain.Remote Sensing of Environment,2012,124:1-14
[31] Zhoushan Statistics Bureau (舟山市统计局),Zhou-shan Investigation Team,National Bureau of Statistics (国家统计局舟山调查队).Zhoushan Statistical Yearbook 2015.Beijing:China Statistics Press,2015 (in Chinese)
[32] Beroya-Eitner MA.Ecological vulnerability indicators.Ecological Indicators,2016,60:329-334
[33] Shah KU,Dulal HB,Johnson C,et al.Understanding livelihood vulnerability to climate change:Applying the livelihood vulnerability index in Trinidad and Tobago.Geoforum,2013,47:125-137
[34] Xie ZL,Li XZ,Jiang DG,et al.Threshold of island anthropogenic disturbance based on ecological vulnerability assessment:A case study of Zhujiajian Island.Ocean & Coastal Management,2019,167:127-136
[35] Yuan F,Bauer ME.Comparison of impervious surface area and normalized difference vegetation index as indicators of surface urban heat island effects in Landsat imagery.Remote Sensing of Environment,2007,106:375-386
[36] Zhang J-X (张金茜),Li H-Y (李红瑛),Cao E-J (曹二佳),et al.Assessment of ecological vulnerability in multi-scale and its spatial correlation:A case study of Bailongjiang Watershed in Gansu Province,China.Chinese Journal of Applied Ecology (应用生态学报),2018,29(9):2897-2906 (in Chinese)
[37] Chen Y-G (陈彦光).On the urbanization curves:Types,stages,and research methods.Scientia Geographica Sinica (地理科学),2012,32(1):12-17 (in Chinese)
[38] Sun Y-G (孙永光),Li X-Z (李秀珍),Guo W-Y (郭文永),et al.Contribution rates of landscape driving factors in coastal reclamation zone based on CLUE-S model validation.Chinese Journal of Applied Ecology (应用生态学报),2011,22(9):2391-2398 (in Chinese)
[39] Li Z (李桢),Liu M (刘淼),Xue Z-S (薛振山),et al.Landscape pattern change and simulation in the Sanjiang Plain based on the CLUE-S model.Chinese Journal of Applied Ecology (应用生态学报),2018,29(6):1805-1812 (in Chinese)
[40] Bonati S.Resilientscapes:Perception and resilience to reduce vulnerability in the Island of Madeira.Procedia Economics and Finance,2014,18:513-520
[41] Kurniawan F,Adrianto L,Bengen DG,et al.Vulnerability assessment of small islands to tourism:The case of the Marine Tourism Park of the Gili Matra Islands,Indonesia.Global Ecology and Conservation,2016,6:308-326
[42] Kaufmann MR,Graham RT,Boyce D,et al.An ecologi-cal basis for ecosystem management.General Technical Report RM 246.Fort Collins,CO:US Department of Agriculture,Forest Service,Rocky Mountain Forest and Range Experiment Station,1994
[43] Berkes F,Colding J,Folke C.Rediscovery of traditional ecological knowledge as adaptive management.Ecological Applications,2000,10:1251-1262
[44] Teng? M,Brondizio ES,Elmqvist T,et al.Connecting diverse knowledge systems for enhanced ecosystem governance:The multiple evidence base approach.Ambio,2014,43:579-591
[45] Kessler WB,Salwasser H,Cartwright CW,et al.New perspectives for sustainable natural resources management.Ecological Applications,1992,2:221-225
[46] Saenz-Arroyo A,Roberts CM.Consilience in fisheries science.Fish and Fisheries,2008,9:316-327
[47] Holling CS,Meffe GK.Command and control and the pathology of natural resource management.Conservation Biology,1996,10:328-337
[48] DeFries R,Nagendra H.Ecosystem management as a wicked problem.Science,2017,356:265-270
[49] Levin S,Xepapadeas T,Crépin AS,et al.Social-ecological systems as complex adaptive systems:Modeling and policy implications.Environment and Development Economics,2013,18:111-132
[50] Heesterbeek H,Anderson RM,Andreasen V,et al.Modeling infectious disease dynamics in the complex landscape of global health.Science,2015,347:1-10