基于动态空间面板模型的填方路基边坡坡面位移预测
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摘要
传统的边坡位移预测由于监测周期长、主要解释变量难以独立监测,存在建模困难、模型冗余、不具备空间预测能力等问题。以某半填半挖的高填方路堤边坡为研究对象,基于坡面位移实测数据,引入空间计量经济学基本理论和动态面板数据分析方法,检验和量化了不同测点间的空间关系,建立了坡面位移的动态空间面板数据模型,并进一步地检验了模型的预测结果。研究结果表明,相较于传统的时间序列模型,该模型参数更加简洁,并可同时对空间所有测点进行预测。模型不仅在时间维度有良好的预测效果,还具有一定的空间预测能力。。
There are some problems in traditional predictions of slope displacement when we take a relatively long monitoring cycle and the difficulty in monitoring dependent variables into consideration. Three kinds of problems may be caused. Firstly,models are often difficult to be built. Besides,the number of models is too large. Last but not least,spatial prediction can not be carried out. A semi-filled and semi-excavated subgrade slope is taken as the research object. The spatial correlation between different measuring points is taken into account. Based on the monitoring data of slope displacement,the basic theory of spatial econometrics and dynamic panel data are introduced. After testing and quantifying the spatial relationship between different measuring points,a dynamic spatial panel data model of slope displacement is established. The prediction results of the model is tested. Results show that the proposed model is more concise in terms of parameters,compared with traditional time series models.In addition,all monitoring points in the slope can be predicted in one model at the same time. Finally,the prediction of this model can be effective not only in time scale but also in space scale.
There are some problems in traditional predictions of slope displacement when we take a relatively long monitoring cycle and the difficulty in monitoring dependent variables into consideration. Three kinds of problems may be caused. Firstly,models are often difficult to be built. Besides,the number of models is too large. Last but not least,spatial prediction can not be carried out. A semi-filled and semi-excavated subgrade slope is taken as the research object. The spatial correlation between different measuring points is taken into account. Based on the monitoring data of slope displacement,the basic theory of spatial econometrics and dynamic panel data are introduced. After testing and quantifying the spatial relationship between different measuring points,a dynamic spatial panel data model of slope displacement is established. The prediction results of the model is tested. Results show that the proposed model is more concise in terms of parameters,compared with traditional time series models.In addition,all monitoring points in the slope can be predicted in one model at the same time. Finally,the prediction of this model can be effective not only in time scale but also in space scale.
引文
Belle P,Aunay B,Bernardie S,et al.2014.The application of an innovative inverse model for understanding and predicting landslide movements[J].Landslides,11(3):343-355.
Chen Q.2014.Advanced econometrics and stata applications:Second edition[M].Beijing:Higher Education Press.
Cressie N,Majure J.1997.Spatio-temporal statistical modeling o livestock wastes in streams[J].Journal of Agricultural Biologica and Environmental Statistics,2(1):24-47.
Du J,Yin K L,Lacasse S.2013.Displacement prediction in colluvial landslides,Three Gorge Reservoir,China[J].Landslides,10(2):203-218.
Elhorst J P.2012.Dynamic spatial panels:models,methods,and inference[J].Journal of Geographical Systems,14(1):5-28.
He K Q,Guo L,Chen W G.2015.Research on displacement dynamic evaluation and forecast model of colluvial landslides induced by rainfall[J].Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering,34(S2):4205-4215.
He M C,Cui Z Q,Jiang Y J,et al.1999.Study on 3S engineering analysis system of slope stability in the Three-Gorges area[J].Journal of Engineering Geology,7(2):112-117.
Huang C Z.2011.Prediction of landsliding time under action of groundwater[J].Journal of Engineering Geology,19(6):816-822.
Ji M H,Wu Z Y,Jiang L.2011.Issues in spatial panel data model specification[J].Statistics&Information Forum,6(26):3-8.
Jiang B,Xing X D,Li J.2015.Trade effects of China's upstream investment to EU under“going global”strategy:a study based on FGLS and PCSE panel data regression estimation methods[J].Journal of International Trade,4(9):73-75.
Li H J,Xu Q,He Y S,et al.2016.Predictive modeling of landslide displacement by wavelet analysis and multiple extreme learning machines[J].Journal of Engineering Geology,24(5):721-731.
Paelinck J H P,Klaassen L H,Ancot J P,et al.1979.Spatial econometrics[M].Farnborough:Saxon House.
Partridge M D,Boarnet M G,Brakman S,et al.2012.Introduction:Whither spatial econometrics?[J].Journal of Regional Science,52(2):167-171.
Su Y H,Xie Z Y,Xu N X,et al.2010.Mechanism analysis of stability of cut-and-fill roadbed interface[J].Rock and Soil Mechanics,31(2):497-502.
Wang Z L,Sun H Y,Shang Y Q.2011.Time series analysis of landslide prediction based on groundwater level variation[J].Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering,30(11):2276-2284.
Xu X T,Jian W B.2015.Dynamic response of Pengkeng landslide to rainfall and its monitoring and early warning[J].Journal of Engineering Geology,23(2):203-210.
Zhang J,Yin K L,Wang J J,et al.2015.Displacement prediction of Baishuihe landslide based on time series and PSO-SVR model[J].Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering,34(2):382-391.
陈强.2014.高级计量经济学及stata应用:第2版[M].北京:高等教育出版社.
何满潮,崔政权,蒋宇静,等.1999.三峡库区边坡稳态3S实时工程分析系统研究[J].工程地质学报,7(2):112-117.
贺可强,郭璐,陈为公.2015.降雨诱发堆积层滑坡失稳的位移动力评价预测模型研究[J].岩石力学与工程学报,34(增2):4204-4215.
黄承忠.2011.考虑地下水作用的滑坡时间预测研究[J].工程地质学报,19(6):816-822.
季民河,武占云,姜磊.2011.空间面板数据模型设定问题分析[J].统计与信息论坛,6(26):3-8.
姜宝,邢晓丹,李剑.2015.“走出去”战略下中国对欧盟逆向投资的贸易效应研究-基于FGLS和PCSE修正的面板数据模型[J]国际贸易问题,4(9):73-75.
李骅锦,许强,何雨森,等.2016.WA联合ELM与OS-ELM的滑坡位移预测模型[J].工程地质学报,24(5):721-731.
苏永华,谢志勇,徐能雄,等.2010.半填半挖路基交接面稳定性分析[J].岩土力学,31(2):497-502.
王智磊,孙红月,尚岳全.2011.基于地下水位变化的滑坡预测时序分析[J].岩石力学与工程学报,30(11):2276-2284.
许旭堂,简文彬.2015.滑坡对降雨的动态响应及其监测预警研究[J].工程地质学报,23(2):203-210.
张俊,殷坤龙,王佳佳,等.2015.基于时间序列与PSO-SVR耦合模型的白水河滑坡位移预测研究[J].岩石力学与工程学报,34(2):382-391.
Chen Q.2014.Advanced econometrics and stata applications:Second edition[M].Beijing:Higher Education Press.
Cressie N,Majure J.1997.Spatio-temporal statistical modeling o livestock wastes in streams[J].Journal of Agricultural Biologica and Environmental Statistics,2(1):24-47.
Du J,Yin K L,Lacasse S.2013.Displacement prediction in colluvial landslides,Three Gorge Reservoir,China[J].Landslides,10(2):203-218.
Elhorst J P.2012.Dynamic spatial panels:models,methods,and inference[J].Journal of Geographical Systems,14(1):5-28.
He K Q,Guo L,Chen W G.2015.Research on displacement dynamic evaluation and forecast model of colluvial landslides induced by rainfall[J].Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering,34(S2):4205-4215.
He M C,Cui Z Q,Jiang Y J,et al.1999.Study on 3S engineering analysis system of slope stability in the Three-Gorges area[J].Journal of Engineering Geology,7(2):112-117.
Huang C Z.2011.Prediction of landsliding time under action of groundwater[J].Journal of Engineering Geology,19(6):816-822.
Ji M H,Wu Z Y,Jiang L.2011.Issues in spatial panel data model specification[J].Statistics&Information Forum,6(26):3-8.
Jiang B,Xing X D,Li J.2015.Trade effects of China's upstream investment to EU under“going global”strategy:a study based on FGLS and PCSE panel data regression estimation methods[J].Journal of International Trade,4(9):73-75.
Li H J,Xu Q,He Y S,et al.2016.Predictive modeling of landslide displacement by wavelet analysis and multiple extreme learning machines[J].Journal of Engineering Geology,24(5):721-731.
Paelinck J H P,Klaassen L H,Ancot J P,et al.1979.Spatial econometrics[M].Farnborough:Saxon House.
Partridge M D,Boarnet M G,Brakman S,et al.2012.Introduction:Whither spatial econometrics?[J].Journal of Regional Science,52(2):167-171.
Su Y H,Xie Z Y,Xu N X,et al.2010.Mechanism analysis of stability of cut-and-fill roadbed interface[J].Rock and Soil Mechanics,31(2):497-502.
Wang Z L,Sun H Y,Shang Y Q.2011.Time series analysis of landslide prediction based on groundwater level variation[J].Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering,30(11):2276-2284.
Xu X T,Jian W B.2015.Dynamic response of Pengkeng landslide to rainfall and its monitoring and early warning[J].Journal of Engineering Geology,23(2):203-210.
Zhang J,Yin K L,Wang J J,et al.2015.Displacement prediction of Baishuihe landslide based on time series and PSO-SVR model[J].Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering,34(2):382-391.
陈强.2014.高级计量经济学及stata应用:第2版[M].北京:高等教育出版社.
何满潮,崔政权,蒋宇静,等.1999.三峡库区边坡稳态3S实时工程分析系统研究[J].工程地质学报,7(2):112-117.
贺可强,郭璐,陈为公.2015.降雨诱发堆积层滑坡失稳的位移动力评价预测模型研究[J].岩石力学与工程学报,34(增2):4204-4215.
黄承忠.2011.考虑地下水作用的滑坡时间预测研究[J].工程地质学报,19(6):816-822.
季民河,武占云,姜磊.2011.空间面板数据模型设定问题分析[J].统计与信息论坛,6(26):3-8.
姜宝,邢晓丹,李剑.2015.“走出去”战略下中国对欧盟逆向投资的贸易效应研究-基于FGLS和PCSE修正的面板数据模型[J]国际贸易问题,4(9):73-75.
李骅锦,许强,何雨森,等.2016.WA联合ELM与OS-ELM的滑坡位移预测模型[J].工程地质学报,24(5):721-731.
苏永华,谢志勇,徐能雄,等.2010.半填半挖路基交接面稳定性分析[J].岩土力学,31(2):497-502.
王智磊,孙红月,尚岳全.2011.基于地下水位变化的滑坡预测时序分析[J].岩石力学与工程学报,30(11):2276-2284.
许旭堂,简文彬.2015.滑坡对降雨的动态响应及其监测预警研究[J].工程地质学报,23(2):203-210.
张俊,殷坤龙,王佳佳,等.2015.基于时间序列与PSO-SVR耦合模型的白水河滑坡位移预测研究[J].岩石力学与工程学报,34(2):382-391.