经济政策不确定性对企业研发投资的影响
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摘要
本文以中国上市公司2007—2017年数据为样本,采用Baker等构建的中国经济政策不确定性指数,研究经济政策不确定性对企业研发投资的影响。结果表明,经济政策不确定性提升能够促使企业增加研发投资。进一步分析发现,经济政策不确定性与研发投资的关系受到融资约束、产权性质和是否为高新技术产业等因素的调节作用而表现出异质性。本文拓展了经济政策不确定性与微观企业行为及创新等方面的相关研究,为政策的调整与优化提供了启示。
Based on the data of listed companies in China from 2007 to 2017,this paper studies the impact of economic policy uncertainty on enterprise R&D investment by using China economic policy uncertainty index constructed by Baker.The results show that the promotion of economic policy uncertainty can encourage enterprises to increase R&D investment.Further analysis shows that the relationship between economic policy uncertainty and R&D investment is heterogeneous due to the adjustment of financing constraints,property rights and whether it is a high-tech industry or not.This paper expands the relevant research on economic policy uncertainty,micro-enterprise behavior and innovation,and provides enlightenment for policy adjustment and optimization.
Based on the data of listed companies in China from 2007 to 2017,this paper studies the impact of economic policy uncertainty on enterprise R&D investment by using China economic policy uncertainty index constructed by Baker.The results show that the promotion of economic policy uncertainty can encourage enterprises to increase R&D investment.Further analysis shows that the relationship between economic policy uncertainty and R&D investment is heterogeneous due to the adjustment of financing constraints,property rights and whether it is a high-tech industry or not.This paper expands the relevant research on economic policy uncertainty,micro-enterprise behavior and innovation,and provides enlightenment for policy adjustment and optimization.
引文
[1]GULEN H,ION M.Political uncertainty and corporate investment[J].Review of financial studies,2016,29 (3):523-564.
[2]BAKER S R,BLOOM N,DAVIS S J.Measuring economic policy uncertainty[J].Quarterly journal of economics,2016,31 (4):1593-1636.
[3]BLOOM N.The impact of uncertainty shocks[J].Econometrica,2009,77 (3):623-685.
[4]蒋腾,张永冀,赵晓丽.经济政策不确定性与企业债务融资[J].管理评论,2018 (3):29-39.
[5]饶品贵,徐子慧.经济政策不确定性影响了企业高管变更吗[J].管理世界,2017 (1):145-157.
[6]陈德球,陈运森.经济政策不确定性与上市公司盈余管理[J].经济研究,2018 (6):97-111.
[7]陈德球,陈运森,董志勇.政策不确定性、税收征管强度与企业税收规避[J].管理世界,2016 (5):151-163.
[8]王红建,李青原,邢斐.经济政策不确定性、现金持有水平及其市场价值[J].金融研究,2014 (9):53-68.
[9]李凤羽,史永东.经济政策不确定性与企业现金持有策略——基于中国经济政策不确定性指数的实证研究[J].管理科学学报,2016 (6):157-170.
[10]王化成,刘欢,高升好.经济政策不确定性、产权性质与商业信用[J].经济理论与经济管理,2016 (5):34-45.
[11]JULIO B,YOOK Y.Political uncertainty and corporate investment cycles[J].Journal of finance,2012,67 (1):45-83.
[12]AN H,CHEN Y,LUO D,et al.Political uncertainty and corporate investment:Evidence from China[J].Journal of corporate finance,2016,36 (2):174-189.
[13]李凤羽,杨墨竹.经济政策不确定性会抑制企业投资吗——基于中国经济政策不确定性指数的实证研究[J].金融研究,2015 (4):115-129.
[14]吴一平,尹华.政策不确定性对企业投资的异质性影响[J].经济管理,2016 (5):10-20.
[15]谭小芬,张文婧.经济政策不确定性影响企业投资的渠道分析[J].世界经济,2017 (12):3-26.
[16]饶品贵,岳衡,姜国华.经济政策不确定性与企业投资行为研究[J].世界经济,2017 (2):27-51.
[17]郝威亚,魏玮,温军.经济政策不确定性如何影响企业创新——实物期权理论作用机制的视角[J].经济管理,2016 (10):40-54.
[18]陈德球,金雅玲,董志勇.政策不确定性、政治关联与企业创新效率[J].南开管理评论,2016 (4):27-35.
[19]孟庆斌,师倩.宏观经济政策不确定性对企业研发的影响:理论与经验研究[J].世界经济,2017 (9):75-98.
[20]ATANASSOV J,JULIO B,LENG T.The bright side of political uncertainty:The case of R&D[R].Working Paper,2015.
[21]刘志远,王存峰,彭涛,等.政策不确定性与企业风险承担:基于预期效应还是损失规避效应[J].南开管理评论,2017 (6):15-27.
[22]BERNANKE B S.Irreversibility,uncertainty and cyclical investment[J].Quarterly journal of economics,1983,98 (1):85-106.
[23]BHATTACHARYA U,HSU P H,TIAN X,et al.What affects innovation more:Policy or policy uncertainty[J].Journal of financial & quantitative analysis,2017,52 (5):1869-1901.
[24]SEGAL G,SHALIASTOVICH I,YARON A,et al.Good and bad uncertainty:Macroeconomic and financial market implications[J].Journal of financial economics,2015,117 (2):369-397.
[25]FOLTA T B,O′BRIEN J P.Entry in the presence of dueling options[J].Strategic management journal,2004,25 (2):121-138.
[26]KULATILAKA N,PEROTTI E C.Strategic growth options[J].Management science,1998,44 (8):1021-1031.
[27]WEEDS H.Strategic delay in a real options model of R&D competition[J].Review of economic studies,2010,69 (3):729-747.
[28]LIEBERMAN M B,MONTGOMERY D B.E First-mover advantages[J].Strategic management journal,1988,9 (S1):41-58.
[29]花贵如,刘志远,许骞.投资者情绪、管理者乐观主义与企业投资行为[J].金融研究,2011 (9):178-191.
[30]HALL B H.The financing of research and development[J].Oxford review of economic policy,2002,18 (1):35-51.
[31]张杰,芦哲,郑文平,等.融资约束、融资渠道与企业R&D投入[J].世界经济,2012 (10):66-90.
[32]梅丹.国有产权、公司治理与非效率投资[J].证券市场导报,2009 (4):44-50.
[33]贾倩,孔祥,孙铮.政策不确定性与企业投资行为——基于省级地方官员变更的实证检验[J].财经研究,2013 (2):81-91.
[34]崔也光,赵迎.我国高新技术行业上市公司无形资产现状研究[J].会计研究,2013 (3):59-64.
[35]翟淑萍,毕晓方.高管持股、政府资助与高新技术企业研发投资——兼议股权结构的治理效应[J].科学学研究,2016 (9):1371-1380.
[36]储德银,张同斌.自主研发、技术引进与高新技术产业成长[J].科研管理,2013 (11):53-60.
[37]LAURSEN K,SALTER A.Open for innovation:The role of openness in explaining innovation performance among U.K.manufacturing firms[J].Strategic management journal,2006,27 (2):131-150.
[38]HALL B H,MONCADA-PATERNò-CASTELLO P,MONTRESOR S,et al.Financing constraints,R&D investments and innovative performances:New empirical evidence at the firm level for Europe[J].Economics of innovation & new technology,2015,25 (3):1-14.
[39]郭平.政策不确定性与企业研发投资:“延迟效应”还是 “抢占效应”——基于世界银行中国企业调查数据的分析[J].山西财经大学学报,2016 (10):1-12.
[2]BAKER S R,BLOOM N,DAVIS S J.Measuring economic policy uncertainty[J].Quarterly journal of economics,2016,31 (4):1593-1636.
[3]BLOOM N.The impact of uncertainty shocks[J].Econometrica,2009,77 (3):623-685.
[4]蒋腾,张永冀,赵晓丽.经济政策不确定性与企业债务融资[J].管理评论,2018 (3):29-39.
[5]饶品贵,徐子慧.经济政策不确定性影响了企业高管变更吗[J].管理世界,2017 (1):145-157.
[6]陈德球,陈运森.经济政策不确定性与上市公司盈余管理[J].经济研究,2018 (6):97-111.
[7]陈德球,陈运森,董志勇.政策不确定性、税收征管强度与企业税收规避[J].管理世界,2016 (5):151-163.
[8]王红建,李青原,邢斐.经济政策不确定性、现金持有水平及其市场价值[J].金融研究,2014 (9):53-68.
[9]李凤羽,史永东.经济政策不确定性与企业现金持有策略——基于中国经济政策不确定性指数的实证研究[J].管理科学学报,2016 (6):157-170.
[10]王化成,刘欢,高升好.经济政策不确定性、产权性质与商业信用[J].经济理论与经济管理,2016 (5):34-45.
[11]JULIO B,YOOK Y.Political uncertainty and corporate investment cycles[J].Journal of finance,2012,67 (1):45-83.
[12]AN H,CHEN Y,LUO D,et al.Political uncertainty and corporate investment:Evidence from China[J].Journal of corporate finance,2016,36 (2):174-189.
[13]李凤羽,杨墨竹.经济政策不确定性会抑制企业投资吗——基于中国经济政策不确定性指数的实证研究[J].金融研究,2015 (4):115-129.
[14]吴一平,尹华.政策不确定性对企业投资的异质性影响[J].经济管理,2016 (5):10-20.
[15]谭小芬,张文婧.经济政策不确定性影响企业投资的渠道分析[J].世界经济,2017 (12):3-26.
[16]饶品贵,岳衡,姜国华.经济政策不确定性与企业投资行为研究[J].世界经济,2017 (2):27-51.
[17]郝威亚,魏玮,温军.经济政策不确定性如何影响企业创新——实物期权理论作用机制的视角[J].经济管理,2016 (10):40-54.
[18]陈德球,金雅玲,董志勇.政策不确定性、政治关联与企业创新效率[J].南开管理评论,2016 (4):27-35.
[19]孟庆斌,师倩.宏观经济政策不确定性对企业研发的影响:理论与经验研究[J].世界经济,2017 (9):75-98.
[20]ATANASSOV J,JULIO B,LENG T.The bright side of political uncertainty:The case of R&D[R].Working Paper,2015.
[21]刘志远,王存峰,彭涛,等.政策不确定性与企业风险承担:基于预期效应还是损失规避效应[J].南开管理评论,2017 (6):15-27.
[22]BERNANKE B S.Irreversibility,uncertainty and cyclical investment[J].Quarterly journal of economics,1983,98 (1):85-106.
[23]BHATTACHARYA U,HSU P H,TIAN X,et al.What affects innovation more:Policy or policy uncertainty[J].Journal of financial & quantitative analysis,2017,52 (5):1869-1901.
[24]SEGAL G,SHALIASTOVICH I,YARON A,et al.Good and bad uncertainty:Macroeconomic and financial market implications[J].Journal of financial economics,2015,117 (2):369-397.
[25]FOLTA T B,O′BRIEN J P.Entry in the presence of dueling options[J].Strategic management journal,2004,25 (2):121-138.
[26]KULATILAKA N,PEROTTI E C.Strategic growth options[J].Management science,1998,44 (8):1021-1031.
[27]WEEDS H.Strategic delay in a real options model of R&D competition[J].Review of economic studies,2010,69 (3):729-747.
[28]LIEBERMAN M B,MONTGOMERY D B.E First-mover advantages[J].Strategic management journal,1988,9 (S1):41-58.
[29]花贵如,刘志远,许骞.投资者情绪、管理者乐观主义与企业投资行为[J].金融研究,2011 (9):178-191.
[30]HALL B H.The financing of research and development[J].Oxford review of economic policy,2002,18 (1):35-51.
[31]张杰,芦哲,郑文平,等.融资约束、融资渠道与企业R&D投入[J].世界经济,2012 (10):66-90.
[32]梅丹.国有产权、公司治理与非效率投资[J].证券市场导报,2009 (4):44-50.
[33]贾倩,孔祥,孙铮.政策不确定性与企业投资行为——基于省级地方官员变更的实证检验[J].财经研究,2013 (2):81-91.
[34]崔也光,赵迎.我国高新技术行业上市公司无形资产现状研究[J].会计研究,2013 (3):59-64.
[35]翟淑萍,毕晓方.高管持股、政府资助与高新技术企业研发投资——兼议股权结构的治理效应[J].科学学研究,2016 (9):1371-1380.
[36]储德银,张同斌.自主研发、技术引进与高新技术产业成长[J].科研管理,2013 (11):53-60.
[37]LAURSEN K,SALTER A.Open for innovation:The role of openness in explaining innovation performance among U.K.manufacturing firms[J].Strategic management journal,2006,27 (2):131-150.
[38]HALL B H,MONCADA-PATERNò-CASTELLO P,MONTRESOR S,et al.Financing constraints,R&D investments and innovative performances:New empirical evidence at the firm level for Europe[J].Economics of innovation & new technology,2015,25 (3):1-14.
[39]郭平.政策不确定性与企业研发投资:“延迟效应”还是 “抢占效应”——基于世界银行中国企业调查数据的分析[J].山西财经大学学报,2016 (10):1-12.