艾比湖绿洲参考作物蒸散量的敏感性分析
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摘要
【目的】研究艾比湖绿洲参考作物蒸散量对不同气象因子的敏感性。【方法】利用Penman-Monteith公式,基于艾比湖绿洲1962—2016年4个气象站的逐月气象资料计算ET0。通过敏感性分析,计算最高温度、最低温度、相对湿度、日照时间和风速的敏感系数,并运用MK趋势检验分析其变化趋势,最后分析了敏感系数在各个站点的变化特征。【结果】通过MK趋势检验,发现参考作物蒸散量、日照时间和风速呈下降趋势;最高温度、最低温度和相对湿度呈上升趋势。通过敏感性分析,发现最高温度、风速在研究区呈下降趋势,最低温度、相对湿度、日照时间为上升趋势。艾比湖绿洲中,各气象因子对ET0的敏感程度为相对湿度>最高温度>风速>最低温度>日照时间。ET0对不同气象因子的敏感系数在空间上存在差异,最高温度、最低温度、风速、相对湿度在艾比湖北部的阿拉山口较高,在温泉站较低;日照时间则在温泉较高,在阿拉山口较低。【结论】相对湿度对艾比湖绿洲ET0的敏感性最高,日照时间的敏感性最低。
【Objective】The evapotranspiration of crop depends on many factors and this paper analyzed its sensitivity to various meteorological factors in Ebinur lake oasis.【Method】Monthly ET0 in Ebinur lake oasis was calculated using the Penman-Monteith formula based on meteorological data measured from 1962 to 2016 at four meteorological stations in the region. The sensitivity of ET0 to the highest and lowest temperature, relative humidity, sunshine duration and wind speed was calculated using sensitivity analysis; and the possible existence of any trends in the ET0 was analyzed using the MK trend test. We also calculated the variation of the sensitivity coefficient for each site.【Result】The MK trend test revealed that the evapotranspiration, sunshine duration and wind speed in the region have been in decline, while the highest and lowest temperature and the relative humidity have been in rise. Analysis found that the ET0 was sensitive to meteorological factor in an order of relative humidity >the highest temperature > wind speed > the lowest temperature > sunshine duration. The sensitivity coefficient of ET0 to different meteorological factors varies spatially, with the coefficients for the highest and lowest temperature, wind speed and relative humidity being high at Alashan pass-way in northern Ebinur lake, and low at Wenquan station. Wenquan station had longer sunshine duration than Alashan pass-way.【Conclusion】ET0 is most sensitive to relative humidity in Ebinur lake oasis, and least sensitive to sunshine duration.
【Objective】The evapotranspiration of crop depends on many factors and this paper analyzed its sensitivity to various meteorological factors in Ebinur lake oasis.【Method】Monthly ET0 in Ebinur lake oasis was calculated using the Penman-Monteith formula based on meteorological data measured from 1962 to 2016 at four meteorological stations in the region. The sensitivity of ET0 to the highest and lowest temperature, relative humidity, sunshine duration and wind speed was calculated using sensitivity analysis; and the possible existence of any trends in the ET0 was analyzed using the MK trend test. We also calculated the variation of the sensitivity coefficient for each site.【Result】The MK trend test revealed that the evapotranspiration, sunshine duration and wind speed in the region have been in decline, while the highest and lowest temperature and the relative humidity have been in rise. Analysis found that the ET0 was sensitive to meteorological factor in an order of relative humidity >the highest temperature > wind speed > the lowest temperature > sunshine duration. The sensitivity coefficient of ET0 to different meteorological factors varies spatially, with the coefficients for the highest and lowest temperature, wind speed and relative humidity being high at Alashan pass-way in northern Ebinur lake, and low at Wenquan station. Wenquan station had longer sunshine duration than Alashan pass-way.【Conclusion】ET0 is most sensitive to relative humidity in Ebinur lake oasis, and least sensitive to sunshine duration.
引文
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[15]张飞,王娟,塔西甫拉提·特依拜,等.1998—2013年新疆艾比湖湖面时空动态变化及其驱动机制[J].生态学报, 2015, 35(9):2 848-2 859.
[16]格丽玛,何清,冷中笑,等.新疆艾比湖流域近40年来气候变化特征分析[J].干旱区资源与环境, 2007(1):54-58.
[17]杨林山,李常斌,王帅兵,等.洮河流域潜在蒸散发的气候敏感性分析[J].农业工程学报, 2014, 30(11):102-109.
[18]董煜,海米提·依米提.艾比湖流域径流水文特征及其对降水变化响应：以博尔塔拉河为例[J].水土保持研究, 2014, 21(2):94-99.
[19]曹永强,高璐,袁立婷,等辽宁省潜在蒸散发量及其敏感性规律分析[J].地理科学, 2017, 37(9):1 422-1 429.
[20]赵亚迪,刘永和,李建林,等.1960—2013年中国地表潜在蒸散发时空变化及其对气象因子的敏感性[J].沙漠与绿洲气象, 2018, 12(3):1-9.
[2]郭金路,谷健,扬筑筑.辽西地区潜在蒸散发敏感性分析及变化成因研究[J].灌溉排水学报, 2018, 37(1):121-128.
[3]梁丽乔,李丽娟,张丽,等.松嫩平原西部生长季参考作物蒸散发的敏感性分析[J].农业工程学报, 2008,24(5):1-5.
[4]孙洁,王强民,刘基.鄂尔多斯高原西部潜在蒸散发量变化规律研究：以鄂托克旗为例[J].灌溉排水学报, 2018, 37(11):84-90.
[5]张特,刘冀,董晓华,等.基于MOD16的澴河流域蒸散发时空分布特征[J].灌溉排水学报, 2018, 37(8):121-128.
[6]吴文玉,孔芹芹,王晓东,等.安徽省近40年参考作物蒸散量的敏感性分析[J].生态环境学报, 2013, 22(7):1 160-1 166.
[7]刘艳,刘帆,刘新生,等.咸阳地区参考蒸散量变化特征及敏感性分析[J].中国农学通报, 2017, 33(2):125-131.
[8]李思思,张飞云,白磊,等.北疆地区生长季参考作物蒸散量的时空变化特征及其敏感性分析[J].中国农业气象, 2015, 36(6):683-691.
[9]李海军,刘海军,张智郡.汾河灌区参考作物蒸散发量变化趋势及影响要素分析[J].灌溉排水学报, 2017, 36(11):86-93.
[10]汪军能,张落成.艾比湖流域水资源变化与区域响应[J].干旱区资源与环境，2006(4):157-161
[11]热孜宛古丽·麦麦提依明,杨建军,刘巍.艾比湖流域1957—2013年潜在蒸散、气温、降水变化特征分析[J].冰川冻土, 2016, 38(1):69-76.
[12]刘文军,张鹏,李丽华,等.新疆艾比湖湖面面积变化分析[J].干旱区研究, 2010, 27(1):64-68.
[13]谭娇,丁建丽,董煜,等.新疆艾比湖绿洲潜在蒸散量年代际变化特征[J].农业工程学报, 2017, 33(5):143-148.
[14]郭家新,高敏华,朱小强,等.基于空间三角形法的艾比湖蒸散发时空变化及其驱动力研究[J].安徽农学通报, 2017, 23(18):57-63.
[15]张飞,王娟,塔西甫拉提·特依拜,等.1998—2013年新疆艾比湖湖面时空动态变化及其驱动机制[J].生态学报, 2015, 35(9):2 848-2 859.
[16]格丽玛,何清,冷中笑,等.新疆艾比湖流域近40年来气候变化特征分析[J].干旱区资源与环境, 2007(1):54-58.
[17]杨林山,李常斌,王帅兵,等.洮河流域潜在蒸散发的气候敏感性分析[J].农业工程学报, 2014, 30(11):102-109.
[18]董煜,海米提·依米提.艾比湖流域径流水文特征及其对降水变化响应：以博尔塔拉河为例[J].水土保持研究, 2014, 21(2):94-99.
[19]曹永强,高璐,袁立婷,等辽宁省潜在蒸散发量及其敏感性规律分析[J].地理科学, 2017, 37(9):1 422-1 429.
[20]赵亚迪,刘永和,李建林,等.1960—2013年中国地表潜在蒸散发时空变化及其对气象因子的敏感性[J].沙漠与绿洲气象, 2018, 12(3):1-9.
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