三峡水库蓄水长江荆南三口地区水资源利用效率及驱动因素
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摘要
三峡水库蓄水必然会对大坝下游、地区江、湖的水资源开发利用及生态经济效应产生较大影响。本文选用数据包络分析(DEA)和Malmquist指数,根据长江荆南三口地区5个市州2000—2016年的面板数据,对荆南三口地区的水资源利用效率进行评估,并在此基础上运用Tobit模型剖析水资源利用效率的影响机制。结果表明:(1)总体而言,三口地区水资源利用效率呈上升趋势,但岳阳、益阳、荆州3市受三峡水库蓄水运行影响,水资源利用效率多年平均值较蓄水前分别下降了13.04%,20.37%和12.45%。(2)三口地区内部水资源利用效率呈现出一定的空间分异。水资源利用水平从高到低依次为宜昌、常德、岳阳、益阳和荆州,超效率DEA多年平均值分别为2.239,1.212,1.046,0.808和0.604;良好的社会经济水平有利于该地区应对三峡水库蓄水产生的负面效应。(3)自然资源禀赋、社会经济水平和产业结构是优化水资源利用效率的主要驱动因素,调整生产要素投入规模是在既定技术水平下提升水资源利用效率的最直接手段。人均GDP和第一产业在地区生产总值中所占比例与水资源利用效率呈负相关关系,而水资源总量的增加有利于水资源的合理利用。
The operation of the Three Gorges reservoir has significant influence on water resources and the environment of cities around Yangtze River. Based on hydrology and economy data during 2000—2017, this paper made use of the date employment analysis and Malmquist total factor productivity index to evaluate the water utilization efficiency and its spatial and temporal changes of 5 cities in three outlets along Jingnan district, and to assess the inner influencing mechanism with the approach of Tobit regression model. Our results show that:(1) Taken together, the average Malmquist total factor productivity index of the entire Jingnan district was above 1, indicating that the water utilization efficiency in this district ascended in general. However, the construction of the Three Gorges reservoir demonstrated negative impacts on Yueyang, Yiyang and Jingzhou, resulting in the decrease of 13.04%, 20.37% and 12.45%, respectively, in the index value.(2) Among 5 states of the Jingnan district, the city water utilization efficiency in the descending sequence was Yichang, Changde, Yueyang, Yiyang, Jingzhou with the annual super-DEA value of 2.239, 1.212, 1.046, 0.808, 0.604, respectively, with cities with more prosperous economy and harmonious society showing better resilience to stresses due to the operation of the Three Gorges reservoir.(3) The natural resource endowment, social economy level and industry structure were the governing factors of water utilization. Per capita GDP and the proportion of first industry in gross domestic product were negatively correlated with the water utilization efficiency while the improvement of total water resource was found to enhance the rational utilization of water resource in these cities.
The operation of the Three Gorges reservoir has significant influence on water resources and the environment of cities around Yangtze River. Based on hydrology and economy data during 2000—2017, this paper made use of the date employment analysis and Malmquist total factor productivity index to evaluate the water utilization efficiency and its spatial and temporal changes of 5 cities in three outlets along Jingnan district, and to assess the inner influencing mechanism with the approach of Tobit regression model. Our results show that:(1) Taken together, the average Malmquist total factor productivity index of the entire Jingnan district was above 1, indicating that the water utilization efficiency in this district ascended in general. However, the construction of the Three Gorges reservoir demonstrated negative impacts on Yueyang, Yiyang and Jingzhou, resulting in the decrease of 13.04%, 20.37% and 12.45%, respectively, in the index value.(2) Among 5 states of the Jingnan district, the city water utilization efficiency in the descending sequence was Yichang, Changde, Yueyang, Yiyang, Jingzhou with the annual super-DEA value of 2.239, 1.212, 1.046, 0.808, 0.604, respectively, with cities with more prosperous economy and harmonious society showing better resilience to stresses due to the operation of the Three Gorges reservoir.(3) The natural resource endowment, social economy level and industry structure were the governing factors of water utilization. Per capita GDP and the proportion of first industry in gross domestic product were negatively correlated with the water utilization efficiency while the improvement of total water resource was found to enhance the rational utilization of water resource in these cities.
引文
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[14] 唐国民,袁晓玲,张磊.三峡蓄水后宜昌水位流量关系变化分析[J].中国水运.航道科技,2016(6):20-23.
[15] 李忠武,赵新娜,谢更新,等.三峡工程蓄水对洞庭湖水环境质量特征的影响[J].地理研究,2013,32(11):2021-2030.
[16] 李景保,何霞,杨波,等.长江中游荆南三口断流时间演变特征及其影响机制[J].自然资源学报,2016,31(10):1713-1725.
[17] 方春明,胡春宏,陈绪坚.三峡水库运用对荆江三口分流及洞庭湖的影响[J].水利学报,2014,45(1):36-41.
[18] 王婷,王坤,王丽婧,等.三峡工程运行对洞庭湖水环境及富营养化风险影响评述[J].环境科学研究,2018,31(1):15-24.
[19] GROSSMAN G M,KRUEGER A B.Economic growth and the environment[J].Quart J Econ,1994,110(2):353-377.
[20] 丁绪辉,贺菊花,王柳元.考虑非合意产出的省际水资源利用效率及驱动因素研究——基于SE-SBM与Tobit模型的考察[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2018,28(1):157-164.
[2] KANEKO S,TANAKA K,TOYOTA T,et al.Water efficiency of agricultural production in China:regional comparison from 1999 to 2002 [J].Int J Agr Res Govern Ecol,2004,3(3-4):231-251.
[3] 钱文婧,贺灿飞.中国水资源利用效率区域差异及影响因素研究[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2011,21(2):54-60.
[4] BIAN Y,YAN S,XU H.Efficiency evaluation for regional urban water use and wastewater decontamination systems in China:A DEA approach[J].Res Conser Recyc,2014,83(1):15-23.
[5] ANDERSEN P,PETERSEN N C.A procedure for ranking efficient units in data envelopment analysis[J].Mang Sci,1993,39(10):1261-1264.
[6] 李景保,罗中海,叶亚亚,等.三峡水库运行对长江荆南三口水文和生态的影响[J].应用生态学报,2016,27(4):1285-1293.
[7] 胡光伟,毛德华,李正最,等.三峡工程建设对洞庭湖的影响研究综述[J].自然灾害学报,2013,22(5):44-52.
[8] 帅红,李景保,何霞,等.环境变化下长江荆南三口径流变化特征检测与归因分析[J].水土保持学报,2016,30(1):83-88.
[9] COOPER W W,ZHU J,SEIFORD L M.Handbook on Data Envelopment Analysis[M].Boston:Kluwer Academic,2004.
[10] F?RE R,GROSSKOPF S,LINDGREN B,et al.Productivity changes in Swedish pharamacies 1980—1989:A non-parametric Malmquist approach[J].J Prod Anal,1992,3(1-2):85-101.
[11] 廖虎昌,董毅明.基于DEA和Malmquist指数的西部12省水资源利用效率研究[J].资源科学.2011(2):273-279.
[12] MCDONALD J F,MOFFITT R A.The uses of Tobit analysis[J].Rev Econ Stat,1980,62(2):318-321.
[13] 李景保,钟一苇,周永强,等.三峡水库运行对洞庭湖北部地区水资源开发利用的影响[J].自然资源学报,2013,28(9):1583-1593.
[14] 唐国民,袁晓玲,张磊.三峡蓄水后宜昌水位流量关系变化分析[J].中国水运.航道科技,2016(6):20-23.
[15] 李忠武,赵新娜,谢更新,等.三峡工程蓄水对洞庭湖水环境质量特征的影响[J].地理研究,2013,32(11):2021-2030.
[16] 李景保,何霞,杨波,等.长江中游荆南三口断流时间演变特征及其影响机制[J].自然资源学报,2016,31(10):1713-1725.
[17] 方春明,胡春宏,陈绪坚.三峡水库运用对荆江三口分流及洞庭湖的影响[J].水利学报,2014,45(1):36-41.
[18] 王婷,王坤,王丽婧,等.三峡工程运行对洞庭湖水环境及富营养化风险影响评述[J].环境科学研究,2018,31(1):15-24.
[19] GROSSMAN G M,KRUEGER A B.Economic growth and the environment[J].Quart J Econ,1994,110(2):353-377.
[20] 丁绪辉,贺菊花,王柳元.考虑非合意产出的省际水资源利用效率及驱动因素研究——基于SE-SBM与Tobit模型的考察[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2018,28(1):157-164.
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