基于通用计算的涪江中段径流模拟研究
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摘要
为了提高传统径流汇流模拟的时效性,提出了一种基于通用计算的径流汇流模型。模型采用纳维-斯托克斯作为基础方程。首先,文章探讨了利用通用计算进行径流汇流模拟的实现方法并设计了模拟计算流程。然后,以涪江流域中段为研究区域,将流域内25个常规站和区域站的实况降水数据为数据源,分别利用本文径流汇流模型和FloodArea模型对流域进行径流模拟,并将两种模型模拟结果与水文站实测数据进行对比分析。结果发现,基于通用计算的径流汇流模型不仅在模拟效率上相对于FloodArea模型有很大程度的提高,而且模拟结果具有更小的水位变化误差,与水文站实测水文数据具有更好拟合效果。模拟时效性和结果准确性的同时提升表明本文的径流汇流模型对暴雨洪涝预警预报具有重要的意义。
In order to improve the timeliness of traditional runoff confluence simulation, a general-purpose computation of runoff-confluence simulation model has proposed based on general calculation in this paper. The model uses Navier-Stokes Formula as the theoretical basis. Firstly, the method of runoff confluence simulation was discussed using general calculation and then a simulation calculation flow was designed. Then, taking the middle Fujiang River as a study area, the long-term precipitation data from 25 meteorological observational stations within the study area were taken as the input data. The runoff simulation had carried out by using both runoff confluence calculation model and FloodArea model, and the results simulated by the two models were compared with the measured data. It was found that the runoff confluence model based on general calculation not only improves the simulation efficiency as compared with FloodArea model, but also has smaller water level variation error and better fitting effect with measured data. Simulating timeliness and accuracy of the results show that the model has greatly improved the early warning and forecasting skill of rainstorms and floods.
In order to improve the timeliness of traditional runoff confluence simulation, a general-purpose computation of runoff-confluence simulation model has proposed based on general calculation in this paper. The model uses Navier-Stokes Formula as the theoretical basis. Firstly, the method of runoff confluence simulation was discussed using general calculation and then a simulation calculation flow was designed. Then, taking the middle Fujiang River as a study area, the long-term precipitation data from 25 meteorological observational stations within the study area were taken as the input data. The runoff simulation had carried out by using both runoff confluence calculation model and FloodArea model, and the results simulated by the two models were compared with the measured data. It was found that the runoff confluence model based on general calculation not only improves the simulation efficiency as compared with FloodArea model, but also has smaller water level variation error and better fitting effect with measured data. Simulating timeliness and accuracy of the results show that the model has greatly improved the early warning and forecasting skill of rainstorms and floods.
引文
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[8] Thompson J R, Srenson H R, Gavin H, et al. Application of the coupled MIKE SHE/MIKE 11 modelling system to a lowland wet grassland in southeast England[J]. Journal of Hydrology, 2004, 293(1): 151-179.
[9] Mcmichael C E, Hope A S, Loaiciga H A. Distributed hydrological modelling in California semi-arid shrublands: MIKE SHE model calibration and uncertainty estimation[J]. Journal of Hydrology, 2006, 317(3): 307-324.
[10] Xue Fengchang, Huang Minmin, Wang Wei, et al. Numerical simulation of urban waterlogging based on FloodArea Model[J]. Advances in Meteorology. 2016(1): 1-9.
[1[1] Zhang Lei, Wang Wen, Wen Mingzhang, et al. Research on refined early-warning method of mountain flood disaster based on FloodArea[J]. Journal of Fudan University, 2015, 54(3): 282-287. [张磊,王文,文明章,等. 基于FloodArea模型的山洪灾害精细化预警方法研究[J]. 复旦学报(自然科学版), 2015, 54(3): 282-287.]
[12] Wang Miaolin, Guo Lijuan, ZhuHui. The trend of climate and runoff of the Fujiang River basin[J] . Yangtze River, 37(12): 44-46. [王渺林,郭丽娟,朱辉. 涪江流域气候及径流变化趋势[J]. 人民长江, 2006, 37(12): 42-43.]
[13] Cai Yuangang. Trend of precipitation jump and drought and waterlogging in Fujiang River basin[J]. Sichuan Meteorology, 2007(4): 12-14.[蔡元刚. 涪江流域降水跃变及旱涝演变趋势[J]. 四川气象, 2007(4): 12-14.]
[14] Wang Guoqing, Li Mi, Jin Junliang, et al. Variation trend of runoff in fujiang river catchment and its responses to climate change[J]. Journal of China Hydrology, 2012, 32(1): 22-28. [王国庆,李迷,金君良,等. 涪江流域径流变化趋势及其对气候变化的响应[J]. 水文, 2012, 32(1): 22-28.]
[15] Hu Yi, Chen Guogang, Du Chenghua. Study of water resource in fujiang river valley[J]. Journal of Chengdu Institute of Meteorology, 1998(4): 28-35. [胡毅,陈国刚,杜成华,等. 涪江流域水资源变化研究[J]. 成都气象学院学报, 1998(4): 28-35.]
[16] Dong Hu, Li Hujie. Analysis of geological hazard development characteristics and inducing factors in Beichuan County of Mianyang[J]. Science and Technology Innovation Herald, 2008(8): 189-190. [董孟,李虎杰. 绵阳市北川县地质灾害发育特征及诱发因素分析[J]. 科技创新导报, 2008(8): 189-190.]
[17] Li Shaowu, Yin Zhenjun. Review on the research of the numerical solvers to N-S Equation and their applications in water wave hydrodynamics[J]. Marine Science Bulletin, 2004, 23(4): 79-85. [李绍武,尹振军. N-S方程的数值解法及其在水波动力学中应用的综述[J]. 海洋通报, 2004, 23(4): 79-85.]
[18] Smiles D E, Knight J H, Smiles D E, et al. A note on the use of the Philip infiltration equation[J]. Soil Research, 1976, 14(1): 103-108.
[19] Chen Hua, Yang Yang, Wang Wei. The eco-hydrology in China analyzed based on bibliometric: domestic research status and hot spots[J]. Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology, 2016, 38(3): 769-775. [陈华, 杨阳, 王伟. 基于文献计量分析我国生态水文学研究现状及热点[J]. 冰川冻土, 2016, 38(3): 769-775.]
[20] Rui Xiaofang. More discussion of watershed hydrological model[J]. Advances in Science and Techinology of Water Resource, 2018, 38(2): 1-7. [芮孝芳. 对流域水文模型的再认识[J]. 水利水电科技进展, 2018, 38(2): 1-7.]
[2] Deng, Peng, Zhijia. Application of TOPMODEL in Buliu River basin and comparison with Xin′anjiang Model[J]. Water Science and Engineering. 2008, 1(2): 25-32.
[3] Wei Xin. Analysis of the occurrence and distribution of floods and their impact on agricultural production in Sichuan during the flood season in 2017[J]. Agriculture and Agricultural Machinery in Sichuan, 2018, 49(1): 38-49. [魏昕. 四川2017年汛期洪涝发生分布及对农业生产的影响分析[J]. 四川农业与农机, 2018, 48(1): 38-49.]
[4] Deng Guowei, Sun Jun, Ruan Guibin, et al. Rainstorm and flood disaster characteristics and analysis of circulation background in main flood season in Sichuan[J]. Plateau Meteorology, 2017, 36(6): 1521-1532. [邓国卫,孙俊,阮贵宾,等. 四川省暴雨洪涝灾情特征及主汛期环流背景分析[J]. 高原气象, 2017, 36(6): 1521-1532.]
[5] Xu Zhongxue. Hydrological Models: past, present and future[J]. Journal of Beijing Normal University, 2010, 46(3): 278-289. [徐宗学. 水文模型: 回顾与展望[J]. 北京师范大学学报(自然科学版), 2010, 46(3): 278-289.]
[6] Devia G K, Ganasri B P, Dwarakish G S. A review on hydrological models[J]. Aquatic Procedia, 2015, 4: 1001-1007.
[7] Xiang Yanyun, Wang Zhicheng, Zhang Hui, et al. Study of snow melt runoff simulation in arid regions: progress and prospect[J]. Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology, 2017, 39(4): 892-901. [向燕芸,王志成,张辉,等. 干旱区融雪径流模拟的研究进展与展望[J]. 冰川冻土. 2017, 39(4): 892-901.]
[8] Thompson J R, Srenson H R, Gavin H, et al. Application of the coupled MIKE SHE/MIKE 11 modelling system to a lowland wet grassland in southeast England[J]. Journal of Hydrology, 2004, 293(1): 151-179.
[9] Mcmichael C E, Hope A S, Loaiciga H A. Distributed hydrological modelling in California semi-arid shrublands: MIKE SHE model calibration and uncertainty estimation[J]. Journal of Hydrology, 2006, 317(3): 307-324.
[10] Xue Fengchang, Huang Minmin, Wang Wei, et al. Numerical simulation of urban waterlogging based on FloodArea Model[J]. Advances in Meteorology. 2016(1): 1-9.
[1[1] Zhang Lei, Wang Wen, Wen Mingzhang, et al. Research on refined early-warning method of mountain flood disaster based on FloodArea[J]. Journal of Fudan University, 2015, 54(3): 282-287. [张磊,王文,文明章,等. 基于FloodArea模型的山洪灾害精细化预警方法研究[J]. 复旦学报(自然科学版), 2015, 54(3): 282-287.]
[12] Wang Miaolin, Guo Lijuan, ZhuHui. The trend of climate and runoff of the Fujiang River basin[J] . Yangtze River, 37(12): 44-46. [王渺林,郭丽娟,朱辉. 涪江流域气候及径流变化趋势[J]. 人民长江, 2006, 37(12): 42-43.]
[13] Cai Yuangang. Trend of precipitation jump and drought and waterlogging in Fujiang River basin[J]. Sichuan Meteorology, 2007(4): 12-14.[蔡元刚. 涪江流域降水跃变及旱涝演变趋势[J]. 四川气象, 2007(4): 12-14.]
[14] Wang Guoqing, Li Mi, Jin Junliang, et al. Variation trend of runoff in fujiang river catchment and its responses to climate change[J]. Journal of China Hydrology, 2012, 32(1): 22-28. [王国庆,李迷,金君良,等. 涪江流域径流变化趋势及其对气候变化的响应[J]. 水文, 2012, 32(1): 22-28.]
[15] Hu Yi, Chen Guogang, Du Chenghua. Study of water resource in fujiang river valley[J]. Journal of Chengdu Institute of Meteorology, 1998(4): 28-35. [胡毅,陈国刚,杜成华,等. 涪江流域水资源变化研究[J]. 成都气象学院学报, 1998(4): 28-35.]
[16] Dong Hu, Li Hujie. Analysis of geological hazard development characteristics and inducing factors in Beichuan County of Mianyang[J]. Science and Technology Innovation Herald, 2008(8): 189-190. [董孟,李虎杰. 绵阳市北川县地质灾害发育特征及诱发因素分析[J]. 科技创新导报, 2008(8): 189-190.]
[17] Li Shaowu, Yin Zhenjun. Review on the research of the numerical solvers to N-S Equation and their applications in water wave hydrodynamics[J]. Marine Science Bulletin, 2004, 23(4): 79-85. [李绍武,尹振军. N-S方程的数值解法及其在水波动力学中应用的综述[J]. 海洋通报, 2004, 23(4): 79-85.]
[18] Smiles D E, Knight J H, Smiles D E, et al. A note on the use of the Philip infiltration equation[J]. Soil Research, 1976, 14(1): 103-108.
[19] Chen Hua, Yang Yang, Wang Wei. The eco-hydrology in China analyzed based on bibliometric: domestic research status and hot spots[J]. Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology, 2016, 38(3): 769-775. [陈华, 杨阳, 王伟. 基于文献计量分析我国生态水文学研究现状及热点[J]. 冰川冻土, 2016, 38(3): 769-775.]
[20] Rui Xiaofang. More discussion of watershed hydrological model[J]. Advances in Science and Techinology of Water Resource, 2018, 38(2): 1-7. [芮孝芳. 对流域水文模型的再认识[J]. 水利水电科技进展, 2018, 38(2): 1-7.]