基于多元线性回归对气候变化影响国家脆弱性的研究
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摘要
针对气候变化对国家脆弱性的影响以及影响的方式和影响结果等,运用K-means聚类和多元线性回归等方法,构建基于FSI指标的一国脆弱性评价模型和气候变化对FSI指标的影响的线性回归模型,综合运用SPSS及EVIEWS等编程求解,研究得出:在全球范围内,气温变化对国家脆弱性的影响大于降水变化带来的影响;不同地区气候变化会带来不同的结果,且气温和降水变化会通过影响经济、政治等指标间接地影响该地区国家的脆弱性.最后结合案例,运用模型分析气候变化对一国脆弱性的具体影响方式.
In response to the impact of climate change on the country's vulnerability and the impact of the way and the impact of results,the use of K-means clustering and multiple linear regression methods,the construction of a national vulnerability assessment model based on FSI indicators and climate change impact on FSI indicators The linear regression model,using a comprehensive SPSS and EVIEWS programming solution,found that: globally,the impact of temperature changes on the country 's vulnerability is greater than the impact of precipitation changes;climate change in different regions will bring different results,changes in temperature and precipitation will indirectly affect the vulnerability of countries in the region by affecting economic and political indicators. Finally,in combination with the case,the model was used to analyze the specific impact of climate change on a country's vulnerability.
In response to the impact of climate change on the country's vulnerability and the impact of the way and the impact of results,the use of K-means clustering and multiple linear regression methods,the construction of a national vulnerability assessment model based on FSI indicators and climate change impact on FSI indicators The linear regression model,using a comprehensive SPSS and EVIEWS programming solution,found that: globally,the impact of temperature changes on the country 's vulnerability is greater than the impact of precipitation changes;climate change in different regions will bring different results,changes in temperature and precipitation will indirectly affect the vulnerability of countries in the region by affecting economic and political indicators. Finally,in combination with the case,the model was used to analyze the specific impact of climate change on a country's vulnerability.
引文
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[5]The World Bank:http://www. worldbank. org/en/topic/fragilityconflictviolence/brief/harmonized-list-of-fragile-situations[EB/OL].
[6]张海滨.美国关于气候变化对国家安全影响的研究述评[J].气候变化研究进展,2009,503:145-150.
[7]冯朝军.基于多元回归分析的我国CPI影响因素识别[J].统计与决策,2017(24):125-127.
[8]罗文海,万巧云,高永.主成分回归分析与多元线性回归的对比研究[J].数理医药学杂志,2003(02):140-143.
[9]吴夙慧,成颖,郑彦宁,等. K-means算法研究综述[J].现代图书情报技术,2011,20505:28-35.
[10]张海东,罗勇,王邦中,等.气象灾害和气候变化对国家安全的影响[J].气候变化研究进展,2006(02):85-88.
[11]杨笛,熊伟,许吟隆.气候变化对非洲水资源和农业的影响[J].中国农业气象,2016,3703:259-269.
[12]史文娇,陶福禄.非洲农业产量对气候变化响应与适应研究进展[J].中国农业科学,2014,4716:3157-3166.
[2]Krakowka A R,Heimel N,and Galgano F. Modeling Environmenal Security in Sub-Sharan Africa-Pro Quest[J]. The Geographical Bulletin,2012,53(1):21-38.
[3]Schwartz P,Randall D. An Abrupt Climate Change Scenario and Its Implications for United States National Security[M]. October,2003.
[4]Theisen O M,Gleditsch N P,and Buhaug H. Is climate change a driver of armed conflict?[J]. Climate Change,April 2013,V117(3):613-625.
[5]The World Bank:http://www. worldbank. org/en/topic/fragilityconflictviolence/brief/harmonized-list-of-fragile-situations[EB/OL].
[6]张海滨.美国关于气候变化对国家安全影响的研究述评[J].气候变化研究进展,2009,503:145-150.
[7]冯朝军.基于多元回归分析的我国CPI影响因素识别[J].统计与决策,2017(24):125-127.
[8]罗文海,万巧云,高永.主成分回归分析与多元线性回归的对比研究[J].数理医药学杂志,2003(02):140-143.
[9]吴夙慧,成颖,郑彦宁,等. K-means算法研究综述[J].现代图书情报技术,2011,20505:28-35.
[10]张海东,罗勇,王邦中,等.气象灾害和气候变化对国家安全的影响[J].气候变化研究进展,2006(02):85-88.
[11]杨笛,熊伟,许吟隆.气候变化对非洲水资源和农业的影响[J].中国农业气象,2016,3703:259-269.
[12]史文娇,陶福禄.非洲农业产量对气候变化响应与适应研究进展[J].中国农业科学,2014,4716:3157-3166.