四川邛崃山脉雪豹与散放牦牛潜在分布重叠与捕食风险评估
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摘要
由雪豹(Panthera uncia)捕食散放家畜引起的人兽冲突是目前中国雪豹保护面临的主要挑战之一。四川邛崃山脉地处雪豹分布范围的东南缘,本研究以邛崃山中部的自然保护区群为研究区,收集了2014–2018年红外相机调查和动物粪便DNA分析中采集到的雪豹与散放牦牛的分布位点,使用MaxEnt物种分布模型预测两物种在研究区内的潜在分布范围,以两物种分布重叠的程度作为评估雪豹捕食家畜潜在风险的指标,从而识别雪豹–家畜冲突的高危区域。结果表明,在邛崃山中部的保护区群中,模型预测的雪豹适宜栖息地面积为871.14 km~2,牦牛适宜栖息地面积为988.41km~2,二者重叠面积达534.47km~2,主要分布在研究区西部的高山草甸地区,占域内雪豹适宜栖息地总面积的61.35%。研究区域内总体上可能存在较高的雪豹–家畜冲突风险。在这些自然保护区以及新建的大熊猫国家公园的管理规划中,应把高山放牧作为对区内野生雪豹种群的关键威胁之一,重点关注模型预测的人兽冲突高危区域,通过改变社区牧业管理方式、发展社区替代生计等方式,降低潜在冲突的风险。
Human–wildlife conflict(HWC) related to livestock predation is one of the main challenges for snow leopard conservation in China. The Qionglai Mountains are located on the southeastern edge of the snow leopard's range, and we used the nature reserve network which transects the central Qionglai Mountains as our study area. We collected occurrence data for snow leopards and free-range yaks from camera-trapping surveys and animal fecal DNA analysis from 2014 to 2018 and then predicted the distribution of each species using species distribution models(MaxEnt). We mapped the overlapping patches of suitable habitats between snow leopards and yaks and used the extent of habitat overlapping as the indicator of potential predation risk. The results showed that, across the seven nature reserves, the predicted suitable habitat for snow leopards and yaks is 871.14 km~2 and 988.41 km~2, respectively. The overlapping habitat between the two species is 534.47 km~2, primarily distributed in the alpine meadow area in the western part of the study area, accounting for 61.35% of snow leopard's suitable habitat. We suggest that, when developing the management plans of these nature reserves and the newly established Giant Panda National Park, managers should consider alpine grazing a key threat to wild snow leopards and give high priority to the management of high-risk areas identified in this study. Immediate actions are needed to reduce the risk of potential HWC through interdisciplinary approaches such as grazing control and alternative livelihoods in local communities.
Human–wildlife conflict(HWC) related to livestock predation is one of the main challenges for snow leopard conservation in China. The Qionglai Mountains are located on the southeastern edge of the snow leopard's range, and we used the nature reserve network which transects the central Qionglai Mountains as our study area. We collected occurrence data for snow leopards and free-range yaks from camera-trapping surveys and animal fecal DNA analysis from 2014 to 2018 and then predicted the distribution of each species using species distribution models(MaxEnt). We mapped the overlapping patches of suitable habitats between snow leopards and yaks and used the extent of habitat overlapping as the indicator of potential predation risk. The results showed that, across the seven nature reserves, the predicted suitable habitat for snow leopards and yaks is 871.14 km~2 and 988.41 km~2, respectively. The overlapping habitat between the two species is 534.47 km~2, primarily distributed in the alpine meadow area in the western part of the study area, accounting for 61.35% of snow leopard's suitable habitat. We suggest that, when developing the management plans of these nature reserves and the newly established Giant Panda National Park, managers should consider alpine grazing a key threat to wild snow leopards and give high priority to the management of high-risk areas identified in this study. Immediate actions are needed to reduce the risk of potential HWC through interdisciplinary approaches such as grazing control and alternative livelihoods in local communities.
引文
Aryal A,Brunton D,Ji WH,Barraclough KR,Raubenheimer D(2014)Human-carnivore conflict:Ecological and economical sustainability of predation on livestock by snow leopard and other carnivores in the Himalaya.Sustainability Science,9,321-329.
Athreya V,Morten O,Linnell DCJ,Krishnaswamy J,Karanth U(2013)Big cats in our backyards:Persistence of large carnivores in a human dominated landscape in India.PLoSONE,8,e57872.
Bagchi S,Mishra C(2006)Living with large carnivores:Predation on livestock by the snow leopard(Uncia uncia).Journal of Zoology,268,217-224.
Barua M,Bhagwat SA,Jadhav S(2013)The hidden dimensions of human-wildlife conflict:Health impacts,opportunity and transaction costs.Biological Conservation,157,309-316.
Boria RA,Olson LE,Goodman SM,Anderson RP(2014)Spatial filtering to reduce sampling bias can improve the performance of ecological niche models.Ecological Modelling,275,73-77.
Elith J,Leathwick JR(2009)Species distribution models:Ecological explanation and prediction across space and time.Annual Review of Ecology,Evolution,and Systematics,40,677-697.
Forestry Department of Sichuan Province(2015)The Panda of Sichuan-The 4th Survey Report on Giant Panda in Sichuan Province.Sichuan Science and Technology Press,Chengdu.(in Chinese)[四川省林业厅(2015)四川的大熊猫--四川省第四次大熊猫调查报告.四川科学技术出版社,成都.]
Guisan A,Thuiller W(2005)Predicting species distribution:Offering more than simple habitat models.Ecology Letters,8,993-1009.
He MX,Chen LX,Luo G,Gu XD,Wang G,Ran JH(2018)Suitable habitat prediction and overlap analysis of two sympatric species,giant panda(Ailuropoda melanoleuca)and Asiatic black bear(Ursus thibetanus)in Liangshan Mountains.Biodiversity Science,26,1180-1189.(in Chinese with English abstract)[和梅香,陈俪心,罗概,古晓东,王戈,冉江洪(2018)凉山山系大熊猫和黑熊适宜生境预测及重叠分析.生物多样性,26,1180-1189.]
Hu JC,Schaller BG(1985)Wolong’s Giant Panda.Sichuan Science and Technology Press,Chengdu.(in Chinese)[胡锦矗,夏勒(1985)卧龙的大熊猫.四川科学技术出版社,成都.]
Hu JC(2004)Population and conservation of giant pandas in Wolong and Caopo nature reserves.Acta Theriologica Sinica,24,48-52.(in Chinese with English abstract)[胡锦矗(2004)卧龙及草坡自然保护区大熊猫的种群与保护.兽类学报,24,48-52.]
Hu XX,Zheng WC,Li JQ,Li S,Yang H,Chen X,Guan TP(2018)Preliminary survey on mammal and bird diversity at Siguniang Mountains National Nature Reserve,Sichuan,China.Biodiversity Science,26,1325-1331.(in Chinese with English abstract)[胡茜茜,郑维超,李佳琦,李晟,杨晗,陈星,官天培(2018)四姑娘山国家级自然保护区鸟兽多样性初步调查.生物多样性,26,1325-1331.]
Hull V,Zhang J,Zhou S,Huang J,Vi?a A,Liu W,Tuanmu M-N,Li RG,Liu D,Xu WH,Huang Y,Ouyang ZY,Zhang HM,Liu JG(2014)Impact of livestock on giant pandas and their habitat.Journal for Nature Conservation,22,256-264.
Inskip C,Zimmermann A(2009)Human-felid conflict:A review of patterns and priorities worldwide.Oryx,43,18-34.
Khorozyan I,Ghoddousi A,Soofi M,Waltert M(2015)Big cats kill more livestock when wild prey reaches a minimum threshold.Biological Conservation,192,268-275.
Li J(2012)Ecology and Conservation Strategy of Snow Leopard(Panthera uncia)in Sanjiangyuan Area on the Tibetan Plateau.PhD dissertation,Peking University,Beijing.(in Chinese with English abstract)[李娟(2012)青藏高原三江源地区雪豹(Panthera uncia)的生态学研究及保护.博士学位论文,北京大学,北京.]
Li J,Lu Z(2014)Snow leopard poaching and trade in China2000-2013.Biological Conservation,176,207-211.
Li J,Wang DJ,Yin H,Jiagong ZL,Lu Z(2013)Human-snow leopard conflicts in the Sanjiangyuan Region of the Tibetan Plateau.Biological Conservation,166,118-123.
Li J,Wang DJ,Yin H,Zhaxi DJ,Jiagong ZL,Schaller BG,Mishra C,McCarthy MT,Wang H,Wu L,Xiao LY,Basang LM,Zhang YG,Zhou YY,Lu Z(2014)Role of Tibetan Buddhist monasteries in snow leopard conservation.Conservation Biology,28,87-94.
Li J,Xiao LY,Lu Z(2016)Challenges of snow leopard conservation in China.Science China:Life Sciences,59,637-639.
Li S,Wang DJ,Lu Z,Mc Shea WJ(2010)Cats living with pandas:The status of wild felids within giant panda range,China.Cat News,52,20-23.
Mc Garigal K,Marks BJ(1995)Fragstats:Spatial Pattern Analysis Program for Quantifying Landscape Structure.General Technical Report,Portland.
Messmer TA(2000)The emergence of human-wildlife conflict management:Turning challenges into opportunities.International Biodeterioration and Biodegradation,45,97-102.
Mishra C,Wieren SV,Ketner P,Heitkonig IM,Prins HH(2004)Competition between domestic livestock and wild bharal Pseudois nayaur in the Indian Trans-Himalaya.Journal of Applied Ecology,41,344-354.
Pettigrew M,Xie Y,Kang AL,Rao M,Goodrich J,Liu T,Berger J(2012)Human-carnivore conflict in China:Areview of current approaches with recommendations for improved management.Integrative Zoology,7,210-226.
Phillips SJ,Anderson RP,Schapire RE(2006)Maximum entropy modeling of species geographic distributions.Ecological Modelling,190,231-259.
Sangay T,Vernes K(2008)Human-wildlife conflict in the Kingdom of Bhutan:Patterns of livestock predation by large mammalian carnivores.Biological Conservation,141,1272-1282.
Sharma RK,Bhatnagar YV,Mishra C(2015)Does livestock benefit or harm snow leopards?Biological Conservation,190,8-13.
Shi XG,Hu Q,Li JQ,Tang Z,Yang J,Li WJ,Shen XL,Li S(2017)Camera-trapping surveys of the mammal and bird diversity in Wolong National Nature Reserve,Sichuan Province.Biodiversity Science,25,1131-1136.(in Chinese with English abstract)[施小刚,胡强,李佳琦,唐卓,杨建,李文静,申小莉,李晟(2017)利用红外相机调查四川卧龙国家级自然保护区鸟兽多样性.生物多样性,25,1131-1136.]
Stockwell DRB,Peterson AT(2002)Effects of sample size on accuracy of species distribution model.Ecological Modelling,148,1-13.
Tang Z,Yang J,Liu XH,Wang PY,Li ZY(2017)Research on snow leopards(Panthera uncia)using camera-trapping in Wolong National Nature Reserve,China.Biodiversity Science,25,62-70.(in Chinese with English abstract)[唐卓,杨建,刘雪华,王鹏彦,李周园(2017)基于红外相机技术对四川卧龙国家级自然保护区雪豹(Panthera uncia)的研究.生物多样性,25,62-70.]
Valeix M,Hemson G,Loveridge JA,Mills G,MacDonald WD(2012)Behavioural adjustments of a large carnivore to access secondary prey in a human-dominated landscape.Journal of Applied Ecology,49,73-81.
Wang F,McShea WJ,Wang DJ,Li S(2015)Shared resources between giant panda and sympatric wild and domestic mammals.Biological Conservation,186,319-325.
Wang RL,Li Q,Feng CH,Shi ZP(2017)Predicting potential ecological distribution of Locusta migratoria tibetensis in China using MaxEnt ecological niche modeling.Acta Ecologica Sinica,37,8556-8566.(in Chinese with English abstract)[王茹琳,李庆,封传红,石朝鹏(2017)基于MaxEnt的西藏飞蝗在中国的适生区预测.生态学报,37,8556-8566.]
Wang X,Li YJ,Li C,Zhang JD(2018)The impact of livestock on giant pandas in Wolong Nature Reserve.Journal of China West Normal University(Natural Sciences),39,11-15.(in Chinese with English abstract)[王晓,李玉杰,李程,张晋东(2018)卧龙自然保护区放牧对大熊猫的影响.西华师范大学学报(自然科学版),39,11-15.]
Wang XM,Liu ZX,Xu HF,Li M,Li YG(1998)The blue sheep population ecology and its conservation in Helan Mountain,China.Chinese Biodiversity,6,1-5.(in Chinese with English abstract)[王小明,刘志霄,徐宏发,李明,李元广(1998)贺兰山岩羊种群生态及保护.生物多样性,6,1-5.]
Zhang J,Hull V,Ouyang ZY,Li R,Connor T,Yang H,Zhang ZJ,Silet B,Zhang HM,Liu JG(2017)Divergent responses of sympatric species to livestock encroachment at fine spatiotemporal scales.Biological Conservation,209,119-129.
Athreya V,Morten O,Linnell DCJ,Krishnaswamy J,Karanth U(2013)Big cats in our backyards:Persistence of large carnivores in a human dominated landscape in India.PLoSONE,8,e57872.
Bagchi S,Mishra C(2006)Living with large carnivores:Predation on livestock by the snow leopard(Uncia uncia).Journal of Zoology,268,217-224.
Barua M,Bhagwat SA,Jadhav S(2013)The hidden dimensions of human-wildlife conflict:Health impacts,opportunity and transaction costs.Biological Conservation,157,309-316.
Boria RA,Olson LE,Goodman SM,Anderson RP(2014)Spatial filtering to reduce sampling bias can improve the performance of ecological niche models.Ecological Modelling,275,73-77.
Elith J,Leathwick JR(2009)Species distribution models:Ecological explanation and prediction across space and time.Annual Review of Ecology,Evolution,and Systematics,40,677-697.
Forestry Department of Sichuan Province(2015)The Panda of Sichuan-The 4th Survey Report on Giant Panda in Sichuan Province.Sichuan Science and Technology Press,Chengdu.(in Chinese)[四川省林业厅(2015)四川的大熊猫--四川省第四次大熊猫调查报告.四川科学技术出版社,成都.]
Guisan A,Thuiller W(2005)Predicting species distribution:Offering more than simple habitat models.Ecology Letters,8,993-1009.
He MX,Chen LX,Luo G,Gu XD,Wang G,Ran JH(2018)Suitable habitat prediction and overlap analysis of two sympatric species,giant panda(Ailuropoda melanoleuca)and Asiatic black bear(Ursus thibetanus)in Liangshan Mountains.Biodiversity Science,26,1180-1189.(in Chinese with English abstract)[和梅香,陈俪心,罗概,古晓东,王戈,冉江洪(2018)凉山山系大熊猫和黑熊适宜生境预测及重叠分析.生物多样性,26,1180-1189.]
Hu JC,Schaller BG(1985)Wolong’s Giant Panda.Sichuan Science and Technology Press,Chengdu.(in Chinese)[胡锦矗,夏勒(1985)卧龙的大熊猫.四川科学技术出版社,成都.]
Hu JC(2004)Population and conservation of giant pandas in Wolong and Caopo nature reserves.Acta Theriologica Sinica,24,48-52.(in Chinese with English abstract)[胡锦矗(2004)卧龙及草坡自然保护区大熊猫的种群与保护.兽类学报,24,48-52.]
Hu XX,Zheng WC,Li JQ,Li S,Yang H,Chen X,Guan TP(2018)Preliminary survey on mammal and bird diversity at Siguniang Mountains National Nature Reserve,Sichuan,China.Biodiversity Science,26,1325-1331.(in Chinese with English abstract)[胡茜茜,郑维超,李佳琦,李晟,杨晗,陈星,官天培(2018)四姑娘山国家级自然保护区鸟兽多样性初步调查.生物多样性,26,1325-1331.]
Hull V,Zhang J,Zhou S,Huang J,Vi?a A,Liu W,Tuanmu M-N,Li RG,Liu D,Xu WH,Huang Y,Ouyang ZY,Zhang HM,Liu JG(2014)Impact of livestock on giant pandas and their habitat.Journal for Nature Conservation,22,256-264.
Inskip C,Zimmermann A(2009)Human-felid conflict:A review of patterns and priorities worldwide.Oryx,43,18-34.
Khorozyan I,Ghoddousi A,Soofi M,Waltert M(2015)Big cats kill more livestock when wild prey reaches a minimum threshold.Biological Conservation,192,268-275.
Li J(2012)Ecology and Conservation Strategy of Snow Leopard(Panthera uncia)in Sanjiangyuan Area on the Tibetan Plateau.PhD dissertation,Peking University,Beijing.(in Chinese with English abstract)[李娟(2012)青藏高原三江源地区雪豹(Panthera uncia)的生态学研究及保护.博士学位论文,北京大学,北京.]
Li J,Lu Z(2014)Snow leopard poaching and trade in China2000-2013.Biological Conservation,176,207-211.
Li J,Wang DJ,Yin H,Jiagong ZL,Lu Z(2013)Human-snow leopard conflicts in the Sanjiangyuan Region of the Tibetan Plateau.Biological Conservation,166,118-123.
Li J,Wang DJ,Yin H,Zhaxi DJ,Jiagong ZL,Schaller BG,Mishra C,McCarthy MT,Wang H,Wu L,Xiao LY,Basang LM,Zhang YG,Zhou YY,Lu Z(2014)Role of Tibetan Buddhist monasteries in snow leopard conservation.Conservation Biology,28,87-94.
Li J,Xiao LY,Lu Z(2016)Challenges of snow leopard conservation in China.Science China:Life Sciences,59,637-639.
Li S,Wang DJ,Lu Z,Mc Shea WJ(2010)Cats living with pandas:The status of wild felids within giant panda range,China.Cat News,52,20-23.
Mc Garigal K,Marks BJ(1995)Fragstats:Spatial Pattern Analysis Program for Quantifying Landscape Structure.General Technical Report,Portland.
Messmer TA(2000)The emergence of human-wildlife conflict management:Turning challenges into opportunities.International Biodeterioration and Biodegradation,45,97-102.
Mishra C,Wieren SV,Ketner P,Heitkonig IM,Prins HH(2004)Competition between domestic livestock and wild bharal Pseudois nayaur in the Indian Trans-Himalaya.Journal of Applied Ecology,41,344-354.
Pettigrew M,Xie Y,Kang AL,Rao M,Goodrich J,Liu T,Berger J(2012)Human-carnivore conflict in China:Areview of current approaches with recommendations for improved management.Integrative Zoology,7,210-226.
Phillips SJ,Anderson RP,Schapire RE(2006)Maximum entropy modeling of species geographic distributions.Ecological Modelling,190,231-259.
Sangay T,Vernes K(2008)Human-wildlife conflict in the Kingdom of Bhutan:Patterns of livestock predation by large mammalian carnivores.Biological Conservation,141,1272-1282.
Sharma RK,Bhatnagar YV,Mishra C(2015)Does livestock benefit or harm snow leopards?Biological Conservation,190,8-13.
Shi XG,Hu Q,Li JQ,Tang Z,Yang J,Li WJ,Shen XL,Li S(2017)Camera-trapping surveys of the mammal and bird diversity in Wolong National Nature Reserve,Sichuan Province.Biodiversity Science,25,1131-1136.(in Chinese with English abstract)[施小刚,胡强,李佳琦,唐卓,杨建,李文静,申小莉,李晟(2017)利用红外相机调查四川卧龙国家级自然保护区鸟兽多样性.生物多样性,25,1131-1136.]
Stockwell DRB,Peterson AT(2002)Effects of sample size on accuracy of species distribution model.Ecological Modelling,148,1-13.
Tang Z,Yang J,Liu XH,Wang PY,Li ZY(2017)Research on snow leopards(Panthera uncia)using camera-trapping in Wolong National Nature Reserve,China.Biodiversity Science,25,62-70.(in Chinese with English abstract)[唐卓,杨建,刘雪华,王鹏彦,李周园(2017)基于红外相机技术对四川卧龙国家级自然保护区雪豹(Panthera uncia)的研究.生物多样性,25,62-70.]
Valeix M,Hemson G,Loveridge JA,Mills G,MacDonald WD(2012)Behavioural adjustments of a large carnivore to access secondary prey in a human-dominated landscape.Journal of Applied Ecology,49,73-81.
Wang F,McShea WJ,Wang DJ,Li S(2015)Shared resources between giant panda and sympatric wild and domestic mammals.Biological Conservation,186,319-325.
Wang RL,Li Q,Feng CH,Shi ZP(2017)Predicting potential ecological distribution of Locusta migratoria tibetensis in China using MaxEnt ecological niche modeling.Acta Ecologica Sinica,37,8556-8566.(in Chinese with English abstract)[王茹琳,李庆,封传红,石朝鹏(2017)基于MaxEnt的西藏飞蝗在中国的适生区预测.生态学报,37,8556-8566.]
Wang X,Li YJ,Li C,Zhang JD(2018)The impact of livestock on giant pandas in Wolong Nature Reserve.Journal of China West Normal University(Natural Sciences),39,11-15.(in Chinese with English abstract)[王晓,李玉杰,李程,张晋东(2018)卧龙自然保护区放牧对大熊猫的影响.西华师范大学学报(自然科学版),39,11-15.]
Wang XM,Liu ZX,Xu HF,Li M,Li YG(1998)The blue sheep population ecology and its conservation in Helan Mountain,China.Chinese Biodiversity,6,1-5.(in Chinese with English abstract)[王小明,刘志霄,徐宏发,李明,李元广(1998)贺兰山岩羊种群生态及保护.生物多样性,6,1-5.]
Zhang J,Hull V,Ouyang ZY,Li R,Connor T,Yang H,Zhang ZJ,Silet B,Zhang HM,Liu JG(2017)Divergent responses of sympatric species to livestock encroachment at fine spatiotemporal scales.Biological Conservation,209,119-129.