区域生态敏感性评估的理论框架与模型设计——以陕西省为例
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摘要
生态敏感性评估可以为管控生态风险与保障区域生态安全提供决策依据。在生态敏感性定义的基础之上运用经济学理论构建生态敏感性评估的理论模型,以土地利用转移几率比替代矩阵作为敏感性评价因子,并且利用生态系统服务价值的实际值与预测值之比的绝对值作为区域生态敏感性指数。结果表明:①设计的生态敏感性评估方法可以弥补现有生态敏感性评估方法的不足,不仅可以观测到区域敏感性因子还能有效地进行敏感性分区,并且在不同尺度下得到了可靠的结果。②在各县(区)最主要敏感性因子的列示中,陕西省1990—2000年以生态破坏因子为主导;而2000年以后,退耕还林工程导致耕地→林地、耕地→草地成为陕北地区最重要的敏感因子,陕南秦巴山区与关中地区由于众多水利工程建设导致生态系统服务价值对草地→水域因子的响应程度比较高。③陕西省总体敏感性由南向北呈现"低敏感-高敏感"间隔有序的基本格局,并且呈现空间上集聚、时间上稳定的状态;高敏感区主要分布沿秦岭、"子午岭-黄陵山"分布,低敏感区主要分布在关中平原以及榆林中部地区。
As human activities continue to occupy ecological space in breadth and depth,ecosystems are facing potential risks from structural damage to functional disorder on the whole. Moreover, the continuous decline of sustainable supply capacity of ecosystem services has a profound impact on human well-being and ecological security. Ecological sensitivity assessment(ESA) can provide decision-making basis for controlling ecological risk and ensuring regional ecological security. However, the current methods of ESA have suffered a lot of criticisms, especially in the framework of ES-LUCC. Hence, we develop the theoretical framework and design the model of ESA to overcome the defects of existing methods based on the definition of ecological sensitivity and economic theory. In this paper, the substitution matrix of odds ratio about land use transition is considered as the sensitive factors instead of that of land area.And then ecological sensitivity index is designed by the absolute value of actual value divided by predicted value of ESV. The results show that the method of ecological sensitivity assessment designed in this paper can not only observe the regional sensitivity factors, but also identify sensitive zones effectively and it still has strong applicability and robustness in small scale. In the list of the most sensitive factors, the negatively ecological factors dominate the ecosystem services such as grassland→cultivated land due to the internal economic driving and the lack of external ecological regulation from 1990 to 2000 in Shaanxi province. However, the Grain for Green Project contributes positively ecological factors to the most sensitive factor such as cultivated land→forestland and cultivated land→grassland in the northern part of the province.Due to the implementation of many water conservancy projects in southern Qinling-Daba Mountains and Guanzhong area, the sensitivity factor coefficient of grassland→water factor is relatively high. The overall sensitivity of the study area presents the basic pattern of orderly interval "Low-High" from south to north, and shows a state of spatial agglomeration and temporal stability. The high-sensitivity areas are mainly distributed along the Qinling Mountains and Ziwuling-Huangling Mountains, and the low-sensitivity areas are mainly in the Guanzhong Plain and the central zone of Yulin city. It is urgent to adjust unreasonable land use distribution and construct an ecological screen according to ecological sensitivity for realizing harmonious coexistence between human and nature.
As human activities continue to occupy ecological space in breadth and depth,ecosystems are facing potential risks from structural damage to functional disorder on the whole. Moreover, the continuous decline of sustainable supply capacity of ecosystem services has a profound impact on human well-being and ecological security. Ecological sensitivity assessment(ESA) can provide decision-making basis for controlling ecological risk and ensuring regional ecological security. However, the current methods of ESA have suffered a lot of criticisms, especially in the framework of ES-LUCC. Hence, we develop the theoretical framework and design the model of ESA to overcome the defects of existing methods based on the definition of ecological sensitivity and economic theory. In this paper, the substitution matrix of odds ratio about land use transition is considered as the sensitive factors instead of that of land area.And then ecological sensitivity index is designed by the absolute value of actual value divided by predicted value of ESV. The results show that the method of ecological sensitivity assessment designed in this paper can not only observe the regional sensitivity factors, but also identify sensitive zones effectively and it still has strong applicability and robustness in small scale. In the list of the most sensitive factors, the negatively ecological factors dominate the ecosystem services such as grassland→cultivated land due to the internal economic driving and the lack of external ecological regulation from 1990 to 2000 in Shaanxi province. However, the Grain for Green Project contributes positively ecological factors to the most sensitive factor such as cultivated land→forestland and cultivated land→grassland in the northern part of the province.Due to the implementation of many water conservancy projects in southern Qinling-Daba Mountains and Guanzhong area, the sensitivity factor coefficient of grassland→water factor is relatively high. The overall sensitivity of the study area presents the basic pattern of orderly interval "Low-High" from south to north, and shows a state of spatial agglomeration and temporal stability. The high-sensitivity areas are mainly distributed along the Qinling Mountains and Ziwuling-Huangling Mountains, and the low-sensitivity areas are mainly in the Guanzhong Plain and the central zone of Yulin city. It is urgent to adjust unreasonable land use distribution and construct an ecological screen according to ecological sensitivity for realizing harmonious coexistence between human and nature.
引文
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[9]马琪,刘康,刘文宗,等.干旱半干旱区生态保护红线划分研究:以“多规合一”试点榆林市为例.地理研究,2018,37(1):158-170.[Ma Qi,Liu Kang,Liu Wenzong,et al.Zoning the ecological redline in arid and semiarid regions:Taking Yulin city as an example in the context of an integrated multi-planning.Geographical Research,2018,37(1):158-170.]
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[12]彭文甫,周介铭,杨存建,等.基于土地利用变化的四川省生态系统服务价值研究.长江流域资源与环境,2014,23(7):1053-1062.[Peng Wenfu,Zhou Jieming,Yang Cunjian,et al.Research on ecosystem service values based on land use change in Sichuan province.Resources and Environment in the Yangtze River Basin,2014,23(7):1053-1062.]
[13]樊敏,李富程,郭亚琳,等.退耕还林对岷江上游高山聚落区生态服务价值变化的影响.山地学报,2016,34(3):356-365.[Fan Min,Li Fucheng,Guo Yalin,et al.Effects of Grain for Green Project on changes in ecosystems service values of alpine settlement area in the upper reaches of the Minjiang river.Journal of Mountain Science,2016(3):356-365.]
[14]喻建华,高中贵,张露,等.昆山市生态系统服务价值变化研究.长江流域资源与环境,2005,(2):213-217.[Yu Jianhua,Gao Zhonggui,Zhang Lu,et al.Change in ecosystem services value in Kunshan city.Resources and Environment in the Yangtze River Basin,2005,(2):213-217.]
[15]普拉提·莫合塔尔,海米提·依米提.土地利用变化下的生态系统服务敏感性研究:以克里雅绿洲为例.自然资源学报,2014,29(11):1849-1858.[Polat Muhtar,Hamid Yimit.Ecosystem services sensitivity to land use change:A case study of the Keriya Oasis.Journal of Natural Resources,2014,29(11):1849-1858.]
[16]刘永强,龙花楼,李加林.长江中游经济带土地利用转型及其生态服务功能交叉敏感性研究.地理研究,2018,37(5):1009-1022.[Liu Yongqiang,Long Hualou,Li Jialin.Study on the land use transition and its cross-sensitivity of ecological service function in the Middle of Yangtze River Economic Belt.Geographical Research,2018,37(5):1009-1022.]
[17]黄静,崔胜辉,李方一,等.厦门市土地利用变化下的生态敏感性.生态学报,2011,31(24):7441-7449.[Huang Jing,Cui Shenghui,Li Fangyi,et al.Ecological sensitivity of Xiamen city to land use changes.Acta Ecologica Sinica,2011,31(24):7441-7449.]
[18]刘超琼,彭开丽,陈红蕾.安徽省土地利用变化下的生态敏感性时空规律.长江流域资源与环境,2015,24(9):1584-1590.[Liu Chaoqiong,Peng Kaili,Chen Honglei.Spatio-tempora characteristics of ecological sensitivity to land use change in Anhui province.Resources and Environment in the Yangtze River Basin,2015,24(9):1584-1590.]
[19]Aschonitis V,Gaglio M,Castaldelli G,et al.Criticism on elasticity-sensitivity coefficient for assessing the robustness and sensitivity of ecosystem services values.Ecosystem Services,2016,20:66-68.
[20]陈强.高级计量经济学及Stata运用:第二版.北京:高等教育出版社,2014.[Chen Qiang.Advanced Econometrics and Stata Application:The 2nd edition.Beijing:Higher Education Press,2014.]
[21]Schmidt C,Kohlmann T.When to use the odds ratio or the relative risk?.International Journal of Public Health,2008,53:165-167.
[22]Viera A.Odds ratios and risk ratios:What's the difference and why does it matter?.Southern Medical Journal,2008,101:730-734.
[23]Beh E,Tran D,Hudson I.A reformulation of the aggregate association index using the odds ratio.Computational Statistics&Data Analysis,2013,68:52-65.
[24]Miettinen O.Estimability and estimation in case-referent studies.American Journal of Epidemiology,1977,105(5):496.
[25]Cheung M,Roger C,Lim Y,et al.Conducting a meta-analysis:Basics and good practices.International Journal of Rheumatic Diseases,2012,(15):129-135.
[26]Hudson,Irene L,Keatley,et al.Phenological Research:Methods For Environmental And Climate Change Analysis.Springer Ebooks,2010.
[27]刘金雅,汪东川,张利辉,等.基于多边界改进的京津冀城市群生态系统服务价值估算.生态学报,2018,38(12):4192-4204.[Liu Jinya,Wang Dongchuan,Zhang Lihui,et al.Estimation of the ecosystem service value of the BeijingTianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration based on multi-boundary improvement.Acta Ecologica Sinica,2018,38(12):4192-4204.]
[28]Costanza R,D'Arge R,De Groot R,et al.The value of the world's ecosystem services and natural capital.World Environment,1997,387:253-26.
[29]谢高地,张彩霞,张雷明,等.基于单位面积价值当量因子的生态系统服务价值化方法改进.自然资源学报,2015,30(8):1243-1254.[Xie Gaodi,Zhang Caixia,Zhang Leiming,et al.Improvement of the evaluation method for ecosystem service value based on per unit area.Journal of Natural Resources,2015,30(8):1243-1254.
[30]姚小薇,曾杰,李旺君.武汉城市圈城镇化与土地生态系统服务价值空间相关特征.农业工程学报,2015,31(9):249-256.[Yao Xiaowei,Zeng Jie,Li Wangjun.Spatial correlation characteristics of urbanization and land ecosystem service value in Wuhan Urban Agglomeration.Transactions of the CSAE,2015,31(9):249-256.]
[31]刘纪远,匡文慧,张增祥,等.20世纪80年代末以来中国土地利用变化的基本特征与空间格局.地理学报,2014,69(1):3-14.[Liu Jiyuan,Kuang Wenhui,Zhang Zengxiang,et al.Spatiotemporal characteristics,patterns and causes of land use changes in China since the late 1980s.Acta Geographica Sinica,2014,69(1):3-14.]
[32]宋富强,邢开雄,刘阳,等.基于MODIS/NDVI的陕北地区植被动态监测与评价.生态学报,2011,31(2):354-363.[Song Fuqiang,Xing Kaixiong,Liu Yang,et al.Monitoring and assessment of vegetation variation in Northern Shaanxi based on MODIS/NDVI.Acta Ecologica Sinica,2011,31(2):354-363.]
[33]李文龙,石育中,鲁大铭,等.北方农牧交错带干旱脆弱性时空格局演变.自然资源学报,2018,33(9):1599-1612.[Li Wenlong,Shi Yuzhong,Lu Daming,et al.The spatio-temporal evolution of drought vulnerability in the farming-pastoral ecotone in the north of China.Journal of Natural Resources,2018,33(9):1599-1612.]
[2]Wang X C,Dong X B,Liu H M,et al.Linking land use change,ecosystem services and human well-being:A case study of the Manas River Basin of Xinjiang,China.Ecosystem Services,2017,27:113-123.
[3]Quintas S,Castro A,Castro H,et al.Impacts of land use change on ecosystem services and implications for human wellbeing in Spanish drylands.Land Use Policy,2016,54:534-548.
[4]Pennington D,Dalzell B,Nelson E,et al.Cost-effective land use planning:Optimizing land use and land management patterns to maximize social benefits.Ecological Economics,2017,139:75-90.
[5]Tolessa T,Senbeta F,Kidane M.The impact of land use/land cover change on ecosystem services in the central highlands of Ethiopia.Ecosystem Services,2017,23:47-54.
[6]欧阳志云.中国生态环境敏感性及区域差异规律研究.生态学报,2000,20(1):9-12.[Ouyang Zhiyun.China's eco-environmental sensitivity and its spatial heterogeneity.Acta Ecologica Sinica,2000,20(1):9-12.]
[7]陈昕,彭建,刘焱序,等.基于“重要性-敏感性-连通性”框架的云浮市生态安全格局构建.地理研究,2017,36(3):471-484.[Chen Xin,Peng Jian,Liu Yanxu,et al.Constructing ecological security patterns in Yunfu city based on the framework of importance-sensitivity-connectivity.Geographical Research,2017,36(3):471-484.]
[8]刘军会,高吉喜,马苏,等.中国生态环境敏感区评价.自然资源学报,2015,30(10):1607-1616.[Liu Junhui,Gao Jixi,Ma Su,et al.Evaluation of ecological sensitivity in China.Journal of Natural Resources,2015,30(10):1607-1616.]
[9]马琪,刘康,刘文宗,等.干旱半干旱区生态保护红线划分研究:以“多规合一”试点榆林市为例.地理研究,2018,37(1):158-170.[Ma Qi,Liu Kang,Liu Wenzong,et al.Zoning the ecological redline in arid and semiarid regions:Taking Yulin city as an example in the context of an integrated multi-planning.Geographical Research,2018,37(1):158-170.]
[10]Kreuter P,Harris G,Matlock D,et al.Change in ecosystem service values in the San Antonio area,Texas.Ecological Economics,2001,39(3):333-346.
[11]Li Y F,Zhan J Y,Liu Y,et al.Response of ecosystem services to land use and cover change:A case study in Chengdu city.Resources Conservation&Recycling,2018,132:291-300.
[12]彭文甫,周介铭,杨存建,等.基于土地利用变化的四川省生态系统服务价值研究.长江流域资源与环境,2014,23(7):1053-1062.[Peng Wenfu,Zhou Jieming,Yang Cunjian,et al.Research on ecosystem service values based on land use change in Sichuan province.Resources and Environment in the Yangtze River Basin,2014,23(7):1053-1062.]
[13]樊敏,李富程,郭亚琳,等.退耕还林对岷江上游高山聚落区生态服务价值变化的影响.山地学报,2016,34(3):356-365.[Fan Min,Li Fucheng,Guo Yalin,et al.Effects of Grain for Green Project on changes in ecosystems service values of alpine settlement area in the upper reaches of the Minjiang river.Journal of Mountain Science,2016(3):356-365.]
[14]喻建华,高中贵,张露,等.昆山市生态系统服务价值变化研究.长江流域资源与环境,2005,(2):213-217.[Yu Jianhua,Gao Zhonggui,Zhang Lu,et al.Change in ecosystem services value in Kunshan city.Resources and Environment in the Yangtze River Basin,2005,(2):213-217.]
[15]普拉提·莫合塔尔,海米提·依米提.土地利用变化下的生态系统服务敏感性研究:以克里雅绿洲为例.自然资源学报,2014,29(11):1849-1858.[Polat Muhtar,Hamid Yimit.Ecosystem services sensitivity to land use change:A case study of the Keriya Oasis.Journal of Natural Resources,2014,29(11):1849-1858.]
[16]刘永强,龙花楼,李加林.长江中游经济带土地利用转型及其生态服务功能交叉敏感性研究.地理研究,2018,37(5):1009-1022.[Liu Yongqiang,Long Hualou,Li Jialin.Study on the land use transition and its cross-sensitivity of ecological service function in the Middle of Yangtze River Economic Belt.Geographical Research,2018,37(5):1009-1022.]
[17]黄静,崔胜辉,李方一,等.厦门市土地利用变化下的生态敏感性.生态学报,2011,31(24):7441-7449.[Huang Jing,Cui Shenghui,Li Fangyi,et al.Ecological sensitivity of Xiamen city to land use changes.Acta Ecologica Sinica,2011,31(24):7441-7449.]
[18]刘超琼,彭开丽,陈红蕾.安徽省土地利用变化下的生态敏感性时空规律.长江流域资源与环境,2015,24(9):1584-1590.[Liu Chaoqiong,Peng Kaili,Chen Honglei.Spatio-tempora characteristics of ecological sensitivity to land use change in Anhui province.Resources and Environment in the Yangtze River Basin,2015,24(9):1584-1590.]
[19]Aschonitis V,Gaglio M,Castaldelli G,et al.Criticism on elasticity-sensitivity coefficient for assessing the robustness and sensitivity of ecosystem services values.Ecosystem Services,2016,20:66-68.
[20]陈强.高级计量经济学及Stata运用:第二版.北京:高等教育出版社,2014.[Chen Qiang.Advanced Econometrics and Stata Application:The 2nd edition.Beijing:Higher Education Press,2014.]
[21]Schmidt C,Kohlmann T.When to use the odds ratio or the relative risk?.International Journal of Public Health,2008,53:165-167.
[22]Viera A.Odds ratios and risk ratios:What's the difference and why does it matter?.Southern Medical Journal,2008,101:730-734.
[23]Beh E,Tran D,Hudson I.A reformulation of the aggregate association index using the odds ratio.Computational Statistics&Data Analysis,2013,68:52-65.
[24]Miettinen O.Estimability and estimation in case-referent studies.American Journal of Epidemiology,1977,105(5):496.
[25]Cheung M,Roger C,Lim Y,et al.Conducting a meta-analysis:Basics and good practices.International Journal of Rheumatic Diseases,2012,(15):129-135.
[26]Hudson,Irene L,Keatley,et al.Phenological Research:Methods For Environmental And Climate Change Analysis.Springer Ebooks,2010.
[27]刘金雅,汪东川,张利辉,等.基于多边界改进的京津冀城市群生态系统服务价值估算.生态学报,2018,38(12):4192-4204.[Liu Jinya,Wang Dongchuan,Zhang Lihui,et al.Estimation of the ecosystem service value of the BeijingTianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration based on multi-boundary improvement.Acta Ecologica Sinica,2018,38(12):4192-4204.]
[28]Costanza R,D'Arge R,De Groot R,et al.The value of the world's ecosystem services and natural capital.World Environment,1997,387:253-26.
[29]谢高地,张彩霞,张雷明,等.基于单位面积价值当量因子的生态系统服务价值化方法改进.自然资源学报,2015,30(8):1243-1254.[Xie Gaodi,Zhang Caixia,Zhang Leiming,et al.Improvement of the evaluation method for ecosystem service value based on per unit area.Journal of Natural Resources,2015,30(8):1243-1254.
[30]姚小薇,曾杰,李旺君.武汉城市圈城镇化与土地生态系统服务价值空间相关特征.农业工程学报,2015,31(9):249-256.[Yao Xiaowei,Zeng Jie,Li Wangjun.Spatial correlation characteristics of urbanization and land ecosystem service value in Wuhan Urban Agglomeration.Transactions of the CSAE,2015,31(9):249-256.]
[31]刘纪远,匡文慧,张增祥,等.20世纪80年代末以来中国土地利用变化的基本特征与空间格局.地理学报,2014,69(1):3-14.[Liu Jiyuan,Kuang Wenhui,Zhang Zengxiang,et al.Spatiotemporal characteristics,patterns and causes of land use changes in China since the late 1980s.Acta Geographica Sinica,2014,69(1):3-14.]
[32]宋富强,邢开雄,刘阳,等.基于MODIS/NDVI的陕北地区植被动态监测与评价.生态学报,2011,31(2):354-363.[Song Fuqiang,Xing Kaixiong,Liu Yang,et al.Monitoring and assessment of vegetation variation in Northern Shaanxi based on MODIS/NDVI.Acta Ecologica Sinica,2011,31(2):354-363.]
[33]李文龙,石育中,鲁大铭,等.北方农牧交错带干旱脆弱性时空格局演变.自然资源学报,2018,33(9):1599-1612.[Li Wenlong,Shi Yuzhong,Lu Daming,et al.The spatio-temporal evolution of drought vulnerability in the farming-pastoral ecotone in the north of China.Journal of Natural Resources,2018,33(9):1599-1612.]
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