近55 a内蒙古极端降水指数时空变化特征
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摘要
基于内蒙古100个气象站点1960—2014年日降水数据,选取气候变化监测与指数专家组(ETCCDI)推荐的9个极端降水指数,采用Sen’s斜率法和Mann-Kendall非参数统计检验方法以及空间地统计方法,研究了极端降水指数时空演变特征。结果表明:研究区区域平均的全部极端降水指数均呈不同程度的下降趋势,且年际波动显著;分区的年际趋势有所差异,即东部地区潮湿日数(NW)呈增加趋势,其余极端降水指数均呈减少趋势,其中持续干燥指数(CDD)呈显著下降趋势(P <0. 05);中部地区所有极端降水指数均呈减少趋势,其中年总降水量(PRCPTOT)减少趋势较明显;西部地区持续湿润指数(CWD)、强降水量(R95)、单日最大降水量(Rx1day)、5日最大降水量(Rx5day)呈减少趋势,其余指数均呈增加趋势。从极端降水指数变化趋势的空间分布特征来看,区域差异显著,总体上呈下降趋势的站点主要分布于内蒙古东部和中部地区,而呈上升趋势的站点主要分布于内蒙古东北部和西部地区。
Nine extreme precipitation indices recommended by the Climate Change Monitoring and Index Expert Group (ETCCDI) were selected. The Sen's slope,the Mann-Kendall nonparametric statistical test and Geostatistical Analyst methods were used to study the spatiotemporal variation of these indices based on the daily precipitation data from 100 meteorological stations in Inner Mongolia from 1960 to 2014. The results showed that the average extreme precipitation indices of the study area were in a decrease trend in varying degrees,and their interannual fluctuations were significant. Their interannual trends in the subareas were different,that is,in the eastern area,the wet days (NW) was in an increase trend,and other indices were in a decrease trend,among which the continuous drying index (CDD) was in a significant decrease trend (P < 0. 05); in the central area,all the extreme precipitation indices were in a decrease trend,and the reduction of total annual precipitation was more obvious; in the western area,the continuous wetness index (CWD),heavy precipitation (R95),monthly maximum 1-day precipitation (Rx1 day),and monthly maximum consecutive 5-day precipitation (Rx5 day) were in a decrease trend,and other indices were in an increase trend. Viewing from the spatial distribution of the change trend of extreme precipitation indices,the regional difference was significant. The stations with a general decrease trend of these indices were mainly distributed in the eastern and central areas of Inner Mongolia,and those with an increase trend were mainly distributed in the northeastern and western parts of Inner Mongolia.
Nine extreme precipitation indices recommended by the Climate Change Monitoring and Index Expert Group (ETCCDI) were selected. The Sen's slope,the Mann-Kendall nonparametric statistical test and Geostatistical Analyst methods were used to study the spatiotemporal variation of these indices based on the daily precipitation data from 100 meteorological stations in Inner Mongolia from 1960 to 2014. The results showed that the average extreme precipitation indices of the study area were in a decrease trend in varying degrees,and their interannual fluctuations were significant. Their interannual trends in the subareas were different,that is,in the eastern area,the wet days (NW) was in an increase trend,and other indices were in a decrease trend,among which the continuous drying index (CDD) was in a significant decrease trend (P < 0. 05); in the central area,all the extreme precipitation indices were in a decrease trend,and the reduction of total annual precipitation was more obvious; in the western area,the continuous wetness index (CWD),heavy precipitation (R95),monthly maximum 1-day precipitation (Rx1 day),and monthly maximum consecutive 5-day precipitation (Rx5 day) were in a decrease trend,and other indices were in an increase trend. Viewing from the spatial distribution of the change trend of extreme precipitation indices,the regional difference was significant. The stations with a general decrease trend of these indices were mainly distributed in the eastern and central areas of Inner Mongolia,and those with an increase trend were mainly distributed in the northeastern and western parts of Inner Mongolia.
引文
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[18]宋桂英,李孝泽,孙永刚,等.内蒙古干旱-半干旱带2012年“7·20”极端暴雨事件的特征及成因[J].冰川冻土,2013,35(4):883-891.[Song Guiying,Li Xiaoze,Sun Yonggang,et al.Characteristics and causes of the extreme rainstorm July 20,2012in the arid and semiarid zone in Inner Mongolia[J].Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology,2013,35(4):883-891.]
[19]白美兰,郝润全,高建峰,等.内蒙古地区极端气候事件分布特征及对农业影响评估[J].干旱地区农业研究,2009,27(2):21-27.[Bai Meilan,Hao Runquan,Gao Jianfeng,et al.Distribution character of extreme climatic events and evaluation of its influence on agriculture in Inner Mongolia[J].Agricultural Research in the Arid Areas,2009,27(2):21-27.]
[20]康晓明,崔丽娟,郝彦宾,等.极端干旱对内蒙古羊草草原水分平衡的影响[J].应用与环境生物学报,2015,21(4):700-709.[Kang Xiaoming,Cui Lijuan,Hao Yanbin,et al.Effects of extreme drought on the water balance of a Leymus chinensis steppe in Inner Mongolia,China[J].Chinese Journal of Applied&Environmental Biology,2015,21(4):700-709.]
[21]杨丽萍,冯旭宇,闫伟兄,等.极端气温变化对内蒙古地区榆树物候期的影响[J].气象与环境学报,2017,33(5):97-102.[Yang Liping,Feng Xuyu,Yan Weixiong,et al.Influence of extreme temperatures change on Ulmus pumila phenophase in Inner Mongolia area[J].Journal of Meteorology And Environment,2017,33(5):97-102.]
[22]杨方兴.内蒙古地区极端气候事件时空变化及其与NDVI的相关性[D].西安:长安大学,2012.[Yang Fangxing.Trends of Extreme Daily Precipitation and Temperature and the Correlation with NDVI in Inner Mongolia[D].Xi’an:Chang’an University,2012.]
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[24]Zhang J S,Shen X J,Wang B L.Changes in precipitation extremes in Southeastern Tibet,China[J].Quaternary International,2015,380(2):49-59.
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[28]Huang J,Sun S L,Xue Y,et al.Changing characteristics of precipitation during 1960-2012 in Inner Mongolia,Northern China[J].Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics,2015,127(3):257-271.
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[2]梁丰,刘丹丹,王婉昭,等.1961-2013年东北地区夏季极端降水事件变化特征[J].干旱区地理,2016,39(3):565-572.[Liang Feng,Liu Dandan,Wang Wanzhao,et al.Temporal and spatial variability of summer extreme precipitation events in Northeast China during 1961-2013[J].Arid Land Geography,2016,39(3):565-572.]
[3]顾西辉,张强,孔冬冬.中国极端降水事件时空特征及其对夏季温度响应[J].地理学报,2016,71(5):718-730.[Gu Xihui,Zhang Qiang,Kong Dongdong.Spatiotemporal patterns of extreme precipitation with their responses to summer temperature[J].Acta Geographica Sinica,2016,71(5):718-730.]
[4]王炳钦,江源,董满宇,等.1961-2010年北方半干旱区极端降水时空变化[J].干旱区研究,2016,33(5):913-920.[Wang Bingqin,Jiang Yuan,Dong Manyu,et al.Spatiotemporal variations of extreme precipitation in the semiarid region in North China during the period of 1961-2010[J].Arid Zone Research,2016,33(5):913-920.]
[5]秦福莹,贾根锁,杨劼,等.基于TRMM卫星数据的蒙古高原降水精度评估与季节分布特征[J].干旱区研究,2018,35(2):395-403.[Qin Fuying,Jia Gensuo,Yang Jie,et al.Accuracy evaluation and seasonal distribution of precipitation over the Mongolian Plateau based on TRMM data[J].Arid Zone Research,2018,35(2):395-403.]
[6]陈建宇,赵景波.1960-2014年内蒙古极端天气事件趋势分析[J].干旱区研究,2017,34(5):997-1 009.[Chen Jianyu,Zhao Jingbo.Trends of extreme weather events in Inner Mongolia during the period of 1960-2014[J].Arid Zone Research,2017,34(5):997-1 009.]
[7]李玮,段利民,刘廷玺,等.1961-2015年内蒙古高原内陆河东部流域极端降水时空变化特征分析[J].资源科学,2017,39(11):2 153-2 165.[Li Wei,Duan Limin,Liu Tingxi,et al.Spatio-temporal variations of extreme precipitation from 1961 to 2015in the eastern inland river basin of Inner Mongolian Plateau[J].Resources Science,2017,39(11):2 153-2 165.]
[8]李喜仓,王冀,杨晶.内蒙古东部牧区极端降雪变化特征及其成因[J].地理科学,2013,33(7):884-889.[Li Xicang,Wang Ji,Yang Jing.Characteristics and mechanism analysis of extreme snow change in eastern Inner Mongolia pasturing area[J].Scientia Geographica Sinica,2013,33(7):884-889.]
[9]白美兰,郝润全,邸瑞琦,等.内蒙古东部近54年气候变化对生态环境演变的影响[J].气象,2006,32(6):31-36.[Bai Meilan,Hao Runquan,Di Ruiqi,et al.Effects of climatic changes in eastern Inner Mongoliaon eco-environmental evolution in last 54years[J].Meteorological Monthly,2006,32(6):31-36.]
[10]刘俊英,刘华民,王炜,等.内蒙古地区近四十年极端天气气候事件变化研究[J].内蒙古大学学报(自然科学版),2015,46(4):400-408.[Liu Junying,Liu Huamin,Wang Wei,et al.Study of extreme daily temperature and precipitation in recent forty years of Inner Mongolia[J].Journal of Inner Mongolia University(Natural Science Edition),2015,46(4):400-408.]
[11]白美兰,郝润全,李喜仓,等.1961-2010年内蒙古地区极端气候事件变化特征[J].干旱气象,2014,32(2):189-193.[Bai Meilan,Hao Runquan,Li Xicang,et al.Variable characteristics of extreme climate events during 1961-2010 in Inner Mongolia[J].Journal of Arid Meteorology,2014,32(2):189-193.]
[12]闫慧敏,陈伟娜,杨方兴,等.过去50年内蒙古极端气候事件时空格局特征[J].地理研究,2014,33(1):13-22.[Yan Huimin,Chen Weina,Yang Fangxing,et al.The spatial and temporal analysis of extreme climatic events in Inner Mongolia during the past 50 years[J].Geographical Research,2014,33(1):13-22.]
[13]刘宏伟,刘秀荣,陈凌云.内蒙古地区极端降水事件分布特征[J].内蒙古气象,2009(6):7-9.[Liu Hongwei,Liu Xiurong,Chen Lingyun.The distribution characteristics of extreme precipitation events in Inner Mongolia[J].Meteorology Journal of Inner Mongolia,2009(6):7-9.]
[14]刘俊英.内蒙古地区近43年极端天气气候事件变化研究[D].呼和浩特:内蒙古大学,2014.[Liu Junying.The Study on the Changes of Extreme Climate Events in Recent Forty-Three Years in Inner Mongolia[D].Hohhot:Inner Mongolia University,2014.]
[15]尤莉,戴新刚,张宇.1961-2008年内蒙古降水极端事件分析[J].气候变化研究进展,2010,6(6):411-416.[You Li,Dai Xingang,Zhang Yu.Extreme precipitation events in Inner Mongolia in 1961-2008[J].Advances in Climate Change Research,2010,6(6):411-416.]
[16]郭明霞,杨晶,孟玉婧,等.1961-2013年内蒙古地区极端降水时空变化分析[J].内蒙古气象,2015(1):18-20.[Guo Mingxia,Yang Jing,Meng Yujing,et al.Analysis on the temporal and spatial change of extreme precipitation in Inner Mongolia from1961 to 2013[J].Meteorology Journal of Inner Mongolia,2015(1):18-20.]
[17]宋桂英,李孝泽,江靖,等.2013年夏季内蒙古干旱-半干旱区两次极端降水事件对比[J].干旱区研究,2016,33(4):747-757.[Song Guiying,Li Xiaoze,Jiang Jing,et al.Two extreme rainstorms in the arid-semiarid zone of Inner Mongolia in summer 2013[J].Arid Zone Research,2016,33(4):747-757.]
[18]宋桂英,李孝泽,孙永刚,等.内蒙古干旱-半干旱带2012年“7·20”极端暴雨事件的特征及成因[J].冰川冻土,2013,35(4):883-891.[Song Guiying,Li Xiaoze,Sun Yonggang,et al.Characteristics and causes of the extreme rainstorm July 20,2012in the arid and semiarid zone in Inner Mongolia[J].Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology,2013,35(4):883-891.]
[19]白美兰,郝润全,高建峰,等.内蒙古地区极端气候事件分布特征及对农业影响评估[J].干旱地区农业研究,2009,27(2):21-27.[Bai Meilan,Hao Runquan,Gao Jianfeng,et al.Distribution character of extreme climatic events and evaluation of its influence on agriculture in Inner Mongolia[J].Agricultural Research in the Arid Areas,2009,27(2):21-27.]
[20]康晓明,崔丽娟,郝彦宾,等.极端干旱对内蒙古羊草草原水分平衡的影响[J].应用与环境生物学报,2015,21(4):700-709.[Kang Xiaoming,Cui Lijuan,Hao Yanbin,et al.Effects of extreme drought on the water balance of a Leymus chinensis steppe in Inner Mongolia,China[J].Chinese Journal of Applied&Environmental Biology,2015,21(4):700-709.]
[21]杨丽萍,冯旭宇,闫伟兄,等.极端气温变化对内蒙古地区榆树物候期的影响[J].气象与环境学报,2017,33(5):97-102.[Yang Liping,Feng Xuyu,Yan Weixiong,et al.Influence of extreme temperatures change on Ulmus pumila phenophase in Inner Mongolia area[J].Journal of Meteorology And Environment,2017,33(5):97-102.]
[22]杨方兴.内蒙古地区极端气候事件时空变化及其与NDVI的相关性[D].西安:长安大学,2012.[Yang Fangxing.Trends of Extreme Daily Precipitation and Temperature and the Correlation with NDVI in Inner Mongolia[D].Xi’an:Chang’an University,2012.]
[23]中国气象局预测减灾司,中国气象局国家气象中心.中国气象地理区划手册[M].北京:气象出版社,2006:14-15.[China Meteorological Administration Forecast Disaster Reduction Division,National Meteorological Center of China Meteorological Administration.China Meteorological Geography Division Manual[M].Beijing:Meteorological Press,2006:14-15.]
[24]Zhang J S,Shen X J,Wang B L.Changes in precipitation extremes in Southeastern Tibet,China[J].Quaternary International,2015,380(2):49-59.
[25]Yue S,Pilon P,Cavadias G.Power of the Mann-Kendall and Spearman’s rho tests for detecting monotonic trends in hydrological series[J].Journal of Hydrology,2002,259(1/4):254-271.
[26]康淑媛,张勃,柳景峰,等.基于Mann-Kendall法的张掖市降水量时空分布规律分析[J].资源科学,2009,31(3):501-508.[Kang Shuyuan,Zhang Bo,Liu Jingfeng,et al.Analysis of the spatiotemporal distribution of precipitation in Zhangye City using Mann-Kendall method[J].Resources Science,2009,31(3):501-508.]
[27]Liu S L,Kang W P,Wang T.Drought variability in Inner Mongolia of Northern China during 1960-2013 based on standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index[J].Environmental Earth Sciences,2016,75(2):1-14.
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