西藏土地资源承载力的现实与未来——基于膳食营养当量分析
|
摘要
土地承载力是人地关系的基础表征,开展土地承载力评价可以为实施农业空间治理、制定农业发展政策等提供参考。以西藏自治区为例,基于人体每日所需热量、蛋白质和脂肪评价土地的现实承载力及其变化。评价结果表明:(1)西藏自治区土地承载指数从2004-2016年一直维持在80.66%～89.84%之间,处于平衡有余状态。(2)未来西藏自治区土地承载指数将会持续保持在87.5%之上,呈现先升后降的变化态势,在2032年达到峰值,届时土地承载指数将会超过92.56%;此后将会持续下降,在2050年将低于90%。以土地承载力评价为基础,根据未来食物消费需求变化和西藏自治区的自然条件,提出不增加农牧业开发强度,保持农牧业生产空间规模稳定,并逐步优化调整农牧业发展结构,适度降低粮食种植面积,在适宜地区扩大蔬菜、瓜果种植,以及发展草牧业经济等建议。
Land carrying capacity is a fundamental representation of relationship between human and land. Forecasting and evaluating land carrying capacity will bring benefits to agricultural spatial governance, population strategies and agriculture policy-making. Taking the Tibet Autonomous Region as an example, this study evaluates and predicts the actual land carrying capacity and its changes based on the daily calorie, protein and fat of regular human needs. Through analysis, it is found that:(1) The land carrying index of Tibet remained between 80.66% and 89.84% from 2004 to 2016 in a tight balance level.(2) In the future, the land carrying index of Tibet will continue to remain above 87.5%, with a trend of rising first and then falling, and then reaching a peak around 2032, with the proportion of more than92.56%; it will continue to decline thereafter, with the proportion of less than 90% in 2050.Therefore, based on the evaluation of land carrying capacity and according to the changes in future food consumption and the natural conditions of this region, there is no need to increase the intensity of agricultural and livestock development, but it is matter to reduce the occupation of cultivated land and grassland, such as urban and rural construction, and maintain the current total production space of both agriculture and animal husbandry. Some suggestions are also proposed, including gradually increasing investment in science and technology of agricultural and livestock products to improve the production efficiency, implementing ecological restoration and land remediation. It is necessary to optimize agricultural production structure of Tibet in accordance with these changes in residents' food consumption structure, which includes moderately reducing the area planted with grain, expanding the cultivation of vegetables, fruits and fruits in suitable areas, and developing the economy of grassland and animal husbandry.
Land carrying capacity is a fundamental representation of relationship between human and land. Forecasting and evaluating land carrying capacity will bring benefits to agricultural spatial governance, population strategies and agriculture policy-making. Taking the Tibet Autonomous Region as an example, this study evaluates and predicts the actual land carrying capacity and its changes based on the daily calorie, protein and fat of regular human needs. Through analysis, it is found that:(1) The land carrying index of Tibet remained between 80.66% and 89.84% from 2004 to 2016 in a tight balance level.(2) In the future, the land carrying index of Tibet will continue to remain above 87.5%, with a trend of rising first and then falling, and then reaching a peak around 2032, with the proportion of more than92.56%; it will continue to decline thereafter, with the proportion of less than 90% in 2050.Therefore, based on the evaluation of land carrying capacity and according to the changes in future food consumption and the natural conditions of this region, there is no need to increase the intensity of agricultural and livestock development, but it is matter to reduce the occupation of cultivated land and grassland, such as urban and rural construction, and maintain the current total production space of both agriculture and animal husbandry. Some suggestions are also proposed, including gradually increasing investment in science and technology of agricultural and livestock products to improve the production efficiency, implementing ecological restoration and land remediation. It is necessary to optimize agricultural production structure of Tibet in accordance with these changes in residents' food consumption structure, which includes moderately reducing the area planted with grain, expanding the cultivation of vegetables, fruits and fruits in suitable areas, and developing the economy of grassland and animal husbandry.
引文
[1] RASK K J, RASK N. Economic development and food production-consumption balance:A growing global challenge.Food Policy, 2010, 36(2):186-196.
[2] MALTHUS T R. An Essay on the Principle of Population(1sted. of 1798). London:Pickering, 1986.
[3] SEIDL I, TISDELL C A. Carrying capacity reconsidered:From Malthus'population theory to cultural carrying capacity.Ecological Economics, 1999, 31(3):395-408.
[4]封志明,杨艳昭,闫慧敏,等.百年来的资源环境承载力研究:从理论到实践.资源科学, 2017, 39(3):379-395.[FENG Z M, YANG Y Z, YAN H M, et al. A review of resources and environment carrying capacity research since the 20thcentury:From theory to practice. Resources Science, 2017, 39(3):379-395.]
[5]封志明.土地承载力研究的起源与发展.资源科学, 1993, 15(6):74-79.[FENG Z M. The origin and development of land carrying capacity. Resources Science, 1993, 15(6):74-79.]
[6]封志明.土地承载力研究的过去、现在与未来.中国土地科学, 1994, 8(3):1-9.[FENG Z M. Research history, present situation and future prospects of land carrying capacity. China Land Science, 1994, 8(3):1-9.]
[7] CARLSON C E. Are we on the road to survival?. Journal of the American Planning Association, 1950, 16(2):58.
[8] ALLAN W. The African Husbandman. Münster:Lit Verlag, 1965.
[9]陈百明.中国土地资源生产能力及人口承载量研究.北京:中国人民大学出版社, 1991.[CHEN B M. Study on the Productive Capacity and Population Carrying Capacity of Land Resources in China. Beijing:China Renmin University Press, 1991.]
[10] SMIL V. Who will feed China?. China Quarterly, 1995, 143(143):801-813.
[11]成升魁,白军飞,金钟浩,等.笔谈:食物浪费.自然资源学报, 2017, 32(4):529-538.[CHENG S K, BAI J F, JIN Z H,et al. Reducing food loss and food waste:Some personal reflections. Journal of Natural Resources, 2017, 32(4):529-538.]
[12] HUI C. Carrying capacity of the environment. International Encyclopedia of the Social&Behavioral Sciences, 2015, 3:155-160.
[13]尚佳莉.西藏土地资源承载能力研究.西藏研究, 1989, 9(2):5-15.[SHANG J L. The land carrying capacity research of the Tibet. Tibetan Studies, 1989, 9(2):5-15.]
[14]刘燕华.西藏雅鲁藏布江中游地区土地系统.北京:科学出版社, 1992.[LIU Y H. Land System in Mid-reach Area of Yarlung Zangbo River in Tibet. Beijing:Science Press, 1992.]
[15]曾加芹. 1985-2005年西藏资源人口承载力探析.西南农业学报, 2007, 20(4):843-849.[ZENG J Q. Prospect on the population carrying capacity of resource in Tibet from 1985 to 2005. Southwest China Journal of Agricultural Sciences,2007, 20(4):843-849.]
[16]樊杰,钟林生,李建平,等.建设第三极国家公园群是西藏落实主体功能区大战略、走绿色发展之路的科学抉择.中国科学院院刊, 2017, 32(9):932-944.[FAN J, ZHONG L S, LI J P, et al. Third pole national park group construction is scientific choice for implementing strategy of major function zoning and green development in Tibet, China. Bulletin of Chinese Academy of Sciences, 2017, 32(9):932-944.]
[17]姚檀栋,余武生,杨威,等.第三极冰川变化与地球系统过程.科学观察, 2016, 11(6):55-57.[YAO T D, YU W S,YANG W, et al. Third-pole glacial change and earth system processes. Science Focus, 2016, 11(6):55-57.]
[18]姚檀栋,陈发虎,崔鹏,等.从青藏高原到第三极和泛第三极.中国科学院院刊, 2017, 32(9):924-931.[YAO T D,CHEN F H, CUI P, et al. From the Tibetan Plateau to the third and third poles. Bulletin of Chinese Academy of Sciences, 2017, 32(9):924-931.]
[19]习近平.习近平致中国科学院青藏高原综合科学考察研究队的贺信.中国科学院院刊, 2017, 32(9):914.[XI J P.Congratulatory letter from Xi Jinping to the Research Group of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau Comprehensive Scientific Research Institute of the Chinese Academy of Sciences. Bulletin of Chinese Academy of Sciences, 2017, 32(9):914.]
[20]许世卫.中国食物发展与区域比较研究.北京:中国农业科学院, 2001.[XU S W. The study on the food development and regional comparison in China. Beijing:Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, 2001.]
[21]张效忠.我国西藏自治区油菜籽的调查.中国油脂, 2003, 28(3):5-6.[ZHANG X Z. Investigation of rapeseed of the Tibet. China Oils and Fats, 2003, 28(3):5-6.]
[22]高利伟,徐增让,成升魁,等.西藏粮食安全状况及主要粮食供需关系研究.自然资源学报, 2017, 32(6):951-960.[GAO L W, XU Z R, CHENG S K, et al. Food security situation and major grain supply and demand in Tibetan region.Journal of Natural Resources, 2017, 32(6):951-960.]
[23]高利伟,徐增让,成升魁,等.农村居民食物消费结构对耕地需求的影响:以西藏“一江两河”流域为例.自然资源学报, 2017, 32(1):12-25.[GAO L W, XU Z R, CHENG S K, et al. Arable land requirements related food consumption pattern:A case study in Lhasa, Xigaze and Shannan region of rural Tibet. Journal of Natural Resources, 2017, 32(1):12-25.]
[24]赵贯锋,余成群,苗彦军,等.西藏高原特色的草业科学技术体系构建与实践.西藏科技, 2015, 22(3):17-21.[ZHAO G F, YU C Q, MIAO Y J, et al. Construction and practice of grassland science and technology system with characteristics of Tibetan Plateau. Tibet Science and Technology, 2015, 22(3):17-21.]
[2] MALTHUS T R. An Essay on the Principle of Population(1sted. of 1798). London:Pickering, 1986.
[3] SEIDL I, TISDELL C A. Carrying capacity reconsidered:From Malthus'population theory to cultural carrying capacity.Ecological Economics, 1999, 31(3):395-408.
[4]封志明,杨艳昭,闫慧敏,等.百年来的资源环境承载力研究:从理论到实践.资源科学, 2017, 39(3):379-395.[FENG Z M, YANG Y Z, YAN H M, et al. A review of resources and environment carrying capacity research since the 20thcentury:From theory to practice. Resources Science, 2017, 39(3):379-395.]
[5]封志明.土地承载力研究的起源与发展.资源科学, 1993, 15(6):74-79.[FENG Z M. The origin and development of land carrying capacity. Resources Science, 1993, 15(6):74-79.]
[6]封志明.土地承载力研究的过去、现在与未来.中国土地科学, 1994, 8(3):1-9.[FENG Z M. Research history, present situation and future prospects of land carrying capacity. China Land Science, 1994, 8(3):1-9.]
[7] CARLSON C E. Are we on the road to survival?. Journal of the American Planning Association, 1950, 16(2):58.
[8] ALLAN W. The African Husbandman. Münster:Lit Verlag, 1965.
[9]陈百明.中国土地资源生产能力及人口承载量研究.北京:中国人民大学出版社, 1991.[CHEN B M. Study on the Productive Capacity and Population Carrying Capacity of Land Resources in China. Beijing:China Renmin University Press, 1991.]
[10] SMIL V. Who will feed China?. China Quarterly, 1995, 143(143):801-813.
[11]成升魁,白军飞,金钟浩,等.笔谈:食物浪费.自然资源学报, 2017, 32(4):529-538.[CHENG S K, BAI J F, JIN Z H,et al. Reducing food loss and food waste:Some personal reflections. Journal of Natural Resources, 2017, 32(4):529-538.]
[12] HUI C. Carrying capacity of the environment. International Encyclopedia of the Social&Behavioral Sciences, 2015, 3:155-160.
[13]尚佳莉.西藏土地资源承载能力研究.西藏研究, 1989, 9(2):5-15.[SHANG J L. The land carrying capacity research of the Tibet. Tibetan Studies, 1989, 9(2):5-15.]
[14]刘燕华.西藏雅鲁藏布江中游地区土地系统.北京:科学出版社, 1992.[LIU Y H. Land System in Mid-reach Area of Yarlung Zangbo River in Tibet. Beijing:Science Press, 1992.]
[15]曾加芹. 1985-2005年西藏资源人口承载力探析.西南农业学报, 2007, 20(4):843-849.[ZENG J Q. Prospect on the population carrying capacity of resource in Tibet from 1985 to 2005. Southwest China Journal of Agricultural Sciences,2007, 20(4):843-849.]
[16]樊杰,钟林生,李建平,等.建设第三极国家公园群是西藏落实主体功能区大战略、走绿色发展之路的科学抉择.中国科学院院刊, 2017, 32(9):932-944.[FAN J, ZHONG L S, LI J P, et al. Third pole national park group construction is scientific choice for implementing strategy of major function zoning and green development in Tibet, China. Bulletin of Chinese Academy of Sciences, 2017, 32(9):932-944.]
[17]姚檀栋,余武生,杨威,等.第三极冰川变化与地球系统过程.科学观察, 2016, 11(6):55-57.[YAO T D, YU W S,YANG W, et al. Third-pole glacial change and earth system processes. Science Focus, 2016, 11(6):55-57.]
[18]姚檀栋,陈发虎,崔鹏,等.从青藏高原到第三极和泛第三极.中国科学院院刊, 2017, 32(9):924-931.[YAO T D,CHEN F H, CUI P, et al. From the Tibetan Plateau to the third and third poles. Bulletin of Chinese Academy of Sciences, 2017, 32(9):924-931.]
[19]习近平.习近平致中国科学院青藏高原综合科学考察研究队的贺信.中国科学院院刊, 2017, 32(9):914.[XI J P.Congratulatory letter from Xi Jinping to the Research Group of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau Comprehensive Scientific Research Institute of the Chinese Academy of Sciences. Bulletin of Chinese Academy of Sciences, 2017, 32(9):914.]
[20]许世卫.中国食物发展与区域比较研究.北京:中国农业科学院, 2001.[XU S W. The study on the food development and regional comparison in China. Beijing:Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, 2001.]
[21]张效忠.我国西藏自治区油菜籽的调查.中国油脂, 2003, 28(3):5-6.[ZHANG X Z. Investigation of rapeseed of the Tibet. China Oils and Fats, 2003, 28(3):5-6.]
[22]高利伟,徐增让,成升魁,等.西藏粮食安全状况及主要粮食供需关系研究.自然资源学报, 2017, 32(6):951-960.[GAO L W, XU Z R, CHENG S K, et al. Food security situation and major grain supply and demand in Tibetan region.Journal of Natural Resources, 2017, 32(6):951-960.]
[23]高利伟,徐增让,成升魁,等.农村居民食物消费结构对耕地需求的影响:以西藏“一江两河”流域为例.自然资源学报, 2017, 32(1):12-25.[GAO L W, XU Z R, CHENG S K, et al. Arable land requirements related food consumption pattern:A case study in Lhasa, Xigaze and Shannan region of rural Tibet. Journal of Natural Resources, 2017, 32(1):12-25.]
[24]赵贯锋,余成群,苗彦军,等.西藏高原特色的草业科学技术体系构建与实践.西藏科技, 2015, 22(3):17-21.[ZHAO G F, YU C Q, MIAO Y J, et al. Construction and practice of grassland science and technology system with characteristics of Tibetan Plateau. Tibet Science and Technology, 2015, 22(3):17-21.]