中国省域森林生态安全与林业产业结构时空耦合测度
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摘要
在探讨森林生态安全与林业产业结构耦合特征的基础上,分别构建森林生态安全与林业产业结构评价指标体系,并运用耦合协调度模型对2007,2010,2013,2016年中国大陆各省域森林生态安全与林业产业结构的耦合协调发展关系进行分析。结果表明:从耦合协调发展阶段来看,大部分省域在4个年份分别处于磨合、磨合、磨合、协调阶段,部分省域发展过程出现了跃进或倒退现象;从相对发展状态来看,大部分省域在4个年份分别处于超前、超前、超前、滞后状态,当前森林生态安全较林业产业结构仍存在一定差距;从耦合协调发展类型来看,大部分省域在4个年份分别为类型Ⅵ、Ⅵ、Ⅵ、Ⅶ,当前森林生态安全滞后于林业产业结构,二者处于低度协调阶段。
Based on the discussion on the coupling characteristics of forest ecological security and forestry industrial structure, the evaluation index systems for forest ecological security and forestry industrial structure are constructed respectively, and the coupled coordination degree model is used to analyze the coupling and coordinated development relationship between forest ecological security and forestry industrial structure in the provinces of China in 2007, 2010, 2013 and 2016. The results show that from perspective of the stage of coupling and coordination development, most provinces are at the stage of running-in, running-in, running-in and coordination respectively in the four years, and some provinces have experienced leaping forward or backward in the development process. From the state of relative development, most provinces are at the state of advancing, advancing, advancing, and lagging respectively in the four years, and the current forest ecological security still has a certain gap compared with the forestry industry structure. From the perspective of the type of coupling coordinated development, most provinces are of type VI, VI, VI, and VII respectively in the four years, and the current forest ecological security lags behind the forestry industry structure, and the both are at a low coordination stage.
Based on the discussion on the coupling characteristics of forest ecological security and forestry industrial structure, the evaluation index systems for forest ecological security and forestry industrial structure are constructed respectively, and the coupled coordination degree model is used to analyze the coupling and coordinated development relationship between forest ecological security and forestry industrial structure in the provinces of China in 2007, 2010, 2013 and 2016. The results show that from perspective of the stage of coupling and coordination development, most provinces are at the stage of running-in, running-in, running-in and coordination respectively in the four years, and some provinces have experienced leaping forward or backward in the development process. From the state of relative development, most provinces are at the state of advancing, advancing, advancing, and lagging respectively in the four years, and the current forest ecological security still has a certain gap compared with the forestry industry structure. From the perspective of the type of coupling coordinated development, most provinces are of type VI, VI, VI, and VII respectively in the four years, and the current forest ecological security lags behind the forestry industry structure, and the both are at a low coordination stage.
引文
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[3]白江迪,刘俊昌,陈文汇.基于结构方程模型分析森林生态安全的影响因素[J].生态学报,2019,39(8):2842-2850.
[4]曹玉昆,黄显乔,朱震锋.基于偏离-份额法的国有林区产业结构分析[J].林业经济问题,2018,38(2):1-6,98.
[5]李秋娟,陈绍志,赵荣.中国林业产业关联分析及未来发展预测[J].林业经济,2018,40(3):11-15.
[6]吕洁华,张洪瑞,张滨.基于马尔科夫二次规划模型的黑龙江省林业产业结构的有序度测算与优化[J].林业科学,2014,50(9):138-144.
[7]王兵,聂欣.产业集聚与环境治理:助力还是阻力:来自开发区设立准自然实验的证据[J].中国工业经济,2016(12):75-89.
[8]王莎,童磊,贺玉德.京津冀产业结构与生态环境交互耦合关系的定量测度[J].软科学,2019,33(3):75-79.
[9]蒋敏元,包玉华.试论社会主义生态建设主体下的林业可持续发展[J].林业经济问题,2006(5):421-424.
[10]董沛武,张雪舟.林业产业与森林生态系统耦合度测度研究[J].中国软科学,2013(11):178-184.
[11]廖冰,张智光,刘春香,等.引入森林资源中介变量的林业产业与生态作用机理研究[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2017,27(11):159-168.
[12]冯彦,郑洁,祝凌云,等.基于PSR模型的湖北省县域森林生态安全评价及时空演变[J].经济地理,2017,37(2):171-178.
[13]范洪敏,穆怀中.中国人口结构与产业结构耦合分析[J].经济地理,2015,35(12):11-17.
[14]毕国华,杨庆媛,刘苏.中国省域生态文明建设与城市化的耦合协调发展[J].经济地理,2017,37(1):50-58.