长江上游流域暴雨洪水相似性判别指标研究
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摘要
暴雨洪水发生演化的各个阶段之间存在一定的关联性和规律性。以长江上游流域为研究对象,将暴雨洪水指标分为降雨、洪水、时间、雨洪关系、水库、形状和初始指标7大类,共67个指标。通过整理暴雨历史洪水资料,摘录暴雨洪水过程和计算暴雨洪水特征值,结合洪量相似度、洪峰相似度、形状相似度和灰色关联度4种相似性评价方法,优选出降水量、降水历时、起涨流量和洪水涨率4个指标作为相似洪水判别指标。以113场三峡入库洪水为样本进行相似性检验,基于几场典型洪水特征值寻找的历史相似洪水之间的相似度较高,确定性系数都达到了0.9以上。结果表明,降水量、降水历时、起涨流量和洪水涨率4个指标作为相似洪水判别指标,对指导实时洪水预报具有较高的参考价值。研究成果在三峡水库以上长江上游流域进行了试验应用,在寻找历史相似洪水方面具有较好的效果。
The correlations and regularity of storm floods exist in various stages of their development. Taking the upper reach of the Yangtze River as an example,we classified 67 storm flood indexes as seven categories,including precipitation,flood,initial state indexes,time,the relationship between storm and flood,reservoir shape and process. Four indicators including total rainfall,rainfall duration,initial rising flow and flood rising rate were optimized as the similar flood discrimination indicators by collating storm flood historical data,extracting storm-flood processes and calculating their characteristic values,and combining with runoff similarity,flood peak similarity,flood process similarity and grey correlation degree. Taking 113 floods of the Three Gorges Reservoir inflow for similarity test samples,several typical floods were chosen to search the similar history floods. The results showed that there were high similarity between them and the deterministic coefficients were all above 0.9,indicating that the four indicators had highly reference value to guide the real-time flood forecasting. The results have been applied to the upper reach of the Yangtze River above the Three Gorges Reservoir,and it has a good effect in finding historical similar floods.
The correlations and regularity of storm floods exist in various stages of their development. Taking the upper reach of the Yangtze River as an example,we classified 67 storm flood indexes as seven categories,including precipitation,flood,initial state indexes,time,the relationship between storm and flood,reservoir shape and process. Four indicators including total rainfall,rainfall duration,initial rising flow and flood rising rate were optimized as the similar flood discrimination indicators by collating storm flood historical data,extracting storm-flood processes and calculating their characteristic values,and combining with runoff similarity,flood peak similarity,flood process similarity and grey correlation degree. Taking 113 floods of the Three Gorges Reservoir inflow for similarity test samples,several typical floods were chosen to search the similar history floods. The results showed that there were high similarity between them and the deterministic coefficients were all above 0.9,indicating that the four indicators had highly reference value to guide the real-time flood forecasting. The results have been applied to the upper reach of the Yangtze River above the Three Gorges Reservoir,and it has a good effect in finding historical similar floods.
引文
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[2]程海云,葛守西.长江洪水分类指标体系研究[J].人民长江,2008,39(8):1-2,118.
[3]张雅琦,李妍清,戴明龙,等.基于投影寻踪法的三峡入库洪水与坝址洪水分类[J].人民长江,2016,47(9):25-28.
[4]肖天国.金沙江、岷江洪水遭遇分析[J].人民长江,2001,32(1):30-32,48.
[5]熊莹.长江上游干支流洪水组成与遭遇研究[J].人民长江,2012,43(10):42-45.
[6]任继周,彭德才,乔伟,等.基于DTW算法的云南昭通地区场次洪水相似性研究[J].水利水电快报,2017,38(8):35-38.
[7]吴碧琼,周理,黎小东,等.基于BTOPMC的无资料区水文模拟及相似性分析[J].人民长江,2015,46(4):21-25.
[8]潘杰.辽宁西部沿海地区无观测流域水文相似性分析[J].吉林水利,2013(8):46-48.
[9]姚成,章玉霞,李致家,等.无资料地区水文模拟及相似性分析[J].河海大学学报:自然科学版,2013,41(2):108-113.
[10]万新宇,包为民,荆艳东,等.基于主成分分析的洪水相似性研究[J].水电能源科学,2007(5):36-39.
[11]孙杰,龚翰.洪水相似性分析方法研究[J].东北水利水电,2008,26(12):9-10.
[12]刘卫林,董增川,梁忠民,等.暴雨洪水相似性分析及其应用研究[J].中国农村水利水电,2007(2):132-135,148.
[13]牛俊,董增川,梁忠民.流域暴雨洪水天气成因相似性分析[J].东北水利水电,2006(5):20-22,72.
[14]孔凡哲,芮孝芳.基于地形特征的流域水文相似性[J].地理研究,2003(6):709-715.
[15]王继民,朱跃龙,李薇,等.多度量水文时间序列相似性分析[J].水文,2014,34(4):15-20,73.
[16]张艳平,周惠成.基于暴雨洪水相似性分析的洪水分类研究[J].水电能源科学,2012,30(9):50-54.
[17]沈强,万定生,王亚明.基于嵌入式索引的水文时间序列相似性搜索模型[J].水文,2016,36(6):64-69.
[18]汪丽娜,陈晓宏,李粤安.投影寻踪和人工鱼群算法的洪水分类[J].人民长江,2008,39(24):34-37.
[19]王海潮,董增川,梁忠民,等.暴雨洪水相似性分析指标体系研究[J].水文,2006(2):13-17.
[20]刘思峰,蔡华,杨英杰,等.灰色关联分析模型研究进展[J].系统工程理论与实践,2013,33(8):2041-2046.
[21]杨艳林,叶枫,吕鑫,等.一种基于DTW聚类的水文时间序列相似性挖掘方法[J].计算机科学,2016,43(2):245-249.