基于MikeFlood的组合情景洪水风险分析
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摘要
针对模拟河道洪水淹没时,干、支流同频率暴雨组合情景不能合理反映洪水漫堤真实情景的缺陷,考虑到洪水汇流淹没过程中干、支流实际降水情况的差异,构建基于干、支流不同频率组合方案下洪水淹没情景的MikeFlood耦合水动力模型。以典型丘陵地貌地区修水为研究对象,模拟研究区域内干流以及主要支流分别发生20年、50年、100年不同频率暴雨时的24种组合情景,选取其中几种情景与干、支流发生同一种频率暴雨的典型暴雨情景进行对比。结果表明,选取的组合情景与典型情景相比,其淹没水深的分布、大小均有较大的变化,可多样性地反映洪水来临时洪水漫堤的情景,为丘陵地区的洪水风险预报和紧急避洪转移工作提供决策依据和技术支撑。
During the flooding of simulated rivers,the same-frequency rainstorm combination scenario of the main stream and tributary cannot reasonably reflect the real overflow situation.In view of this defect,considering the difference of actual precipitation conditions between the main stream and tributary during the flooding,we established a MikeFlood coupled hydrodynamic model based on flooding scenarios of different frequency combinations of the main stream and tributary.In this paper,the typical hilly landform area,Xiushui,was taken as the research object.We simulated the 24 combinations in which the main stream and the main tributaries respectively had 20-,50-and 100-year rainstorms.We compared several scenarios with the typical storm scenarios in which the main stream and tributaries had rainstorms of the same frequency.The comparison results showed that the selected combination scenarios presented much different distribution and size of submerged depth than the typical scenarios.They can diversely reflect the overflow situation in the flood,providing decision-making basis and technical support for flood risk forecasting and emergency evacuation to avoid flood in hilly areas.
During the flooding of simulated rivers,the same-frequency rainstorm combination scenario of the main stream and tributary cannot reasonably reflect the real overflow situation.In view of this defect,considering the difference of actual precipitation conditions between the main stream and tributary during the flooding,we established a MikeFlood coupled hydrodynamic model based on flooding scenarios of different frequency combinations of the main stream and tributary.In this paper,the typical hilly landform area,Xiushui,was taken as the research object.We simulated the 24 combinations in which the main stream and the main tributaries respectively had 20-,50-and 100-year rainstorms.We compared several scenarios with the typical storm scenarios in which the main stream and tributaries had rainstorms of the same frequency.The comparison results showed that the selected combination scenarios presented much different distribution and size of submerged depth than the typical scenarios.They can diversely reflect the overflow situation in the flood,providing decision-making basis and technical support for flood risk forecasting and emergency evacuation to avoid flood in hilly areas.
引文
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[3]周洁,董增川,朱振业.基于Mike Flood的洪泽湖周边滞洪区洪水演进模拟[J].南水北调与水利科技,2017,15(5):56-62.(ZHOU J,DONG Z C,ZHU Z Y.Flood Simulation of flood depression area around Hongze Lake based on Mike Flood[J].South-to-North Water Transfer and Water Science and Technology,2017,15(5):56-62.(in Chinese))DOI:10.13476/j.cnki.nsbdqk.2017.05.009.
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[8]藏兴科.基于GIS耦合HEC-RAS的城市洪水灾害风险评估——以重庆市主城区长江、嘉陵江段为例[J].吉林水利,2017(3):52-27.(ZANG X K.Risk Assessment of urban flood disaster based on GIS-Coupled HEC-RAS——Taking the Yangtze River and Jialing River section of Chongqing Main City as an example[J].Jilin Water Resources,2017(3):52-27.(in Chinese))DOI:10.16867/j.cnki.cfdm.2016.02.014.
[9] Danish Hydraulic Institute(DHI).Mike11:a modeling system for rivers and channels user guide[M].Copenhagen:Danish Hydraulic Institute,2013.
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[11] DanishHydraulic Institute(DHI).MikeFlood:1D-2D modeling user manual[M].Copenhagen:Danish Hydraulic Institute,2013.
[12]刘卫林,梁艳红,彭友文.基于Mike Flood的中小河流溃堤洪水演进数值模拟[J].人民长江,2017,48(7):6-10.(LIU W L,LIANG Y H,PENG Y W.Numerical simulation of flood routing evolution of small and medium-sized rivers based on Mike Flood[J].People′s Yangtze River,2017,48(7):6-10.(in Chinese))DOI:10.16232/j.cnki.1001-4179.2017.07.002.
[13]侯燕,马山玉.基于Mike与GIS的城市洪水风险分析及应用[J].水电能源科学,2016,34(11):72-76.(HOU Y,MA S Y.Analysis and application of urban flood risk based on Mike and GIS[J].Hydroelectric Energy Science,2016,34(11):72-76.(in Chinese))
[14]魏凯,梁忠民,王军.基于MIKE21的濛洼蓄滞洪区洪水演算模拟[J].南水北调与水利科技,2013,11(6):16-19.(WEI K,LIANG Z M,WANG J.Simulation of flood calculation in Mengyu flood detention area based on MIKE21[J].South-to-North Water Transfer and Water Science and Technology,2013,11(6):16-19.(in Chinese))DOI:10.3724/SP.J.1201.2013.06016.
[15]吴天蛟,杨汉波,李哲,等.基于MIKE11的三峡库区洪水演进模拟[J].水力发电学报,2014,33(2):51-57.(WU T J YANG H B,LI Z,et al.Simulation of flood evolution in the Three Gorges reservoir area based on MIKE11[J].Journal of Hydroelectric Engineering,2014,33(2):51-57.(in Chinese))
[16]金玲,许士国,于德全.中小河流洪水风险分析中的洪水演进计算研究[J].水电能源科学,2014,32(10):48-51.(JIN L,XU S G,YU D Q.Research on flood evolution calculation in flood risk analysis of medium and small rivers[J].Hydroelectric Energy Science,2014,32(10):48-51.(in Chinese))
[17]初祁,彭定志,徐宗学,等.基于Mike11和Mike21的城市暴雨洪涝灾害风险分析[J].北京师范大学学报(自然科学版),2014,50(5):446-451.(CHU W,PENG D Z,XU Z X,et al.Risk analysis of urban storm and flood disaster based on Mike11and Mike21[J].Journal of Beijing Normal University(Natural Science),2014,50(5):446-451.(in Chinese))
[18]施露,董增川,付晓花,等.Mike Flood在中小河流洪涝风险分析中的应用[J].河海大学学报(自然科学版),2017,45(4):351-357.(SHI L,DONG Z C,FU Xi H,et al.Application of Mike Flood in risk analysis of floods in medium and small rivers[J].Journal of Hohai University,2017,45(4):351-357.(in Chinese))DOI10.3876/j.issn.1000-1980.2017.04.011.
[19]叶爱民,刘曙光,韩超,等.Mike Flood耦合模型在杭嘉湖流域嘉兴地区洪水风险图编制工作中的应用[J].研究探讨,2016,26(2):56-60.(YE A M,LIU S G,HAN C,et al.Application of Mike Flood coupling model in the compilation of flood risk map in Jiaxing area of Hangzhou-Jiaxing-Huzhou Basin[J].Research,2016,26(2):56-60.(in Chinese))DOI:10.16867/j.cnki.cfdm.2016.02.014.
[20]何典灿,周建中,江炎生,等.基于MIKE的杜家台洪道行洪能力研究[J].长江科学院院报,2017,34(9):52-56.(HE D C,ZHOU J Z,JIANG Y S,et al.Research on flooding capacity of Dujiatai flood road based on MIKE[J].Journal of Yangtze River Scientific Research Institute,2017,34(9):52-56.(in Chinese))DOI:10.11988/ckyyb.20160514.
[21]郭凤清,屈寒飞,曾辉.基于Mike21的潖江蓄滞洪区洪水危险性快速预测[J].自然灾害学报,2013,22(3):144-152.(GUO F Q,QU H F,ZENG H.Rapid prediction of flood risk in the Lujiang River Flood detention area based on Mike21[J].Journal of Natural Disasters,2013,22(3):144-152.(in Chinese))DOI:10.13577/j.jnd.2013.0320.
[22]衣秀勇.DHI Mike Flood洪水模拟技术应用与研究[M].北京:中国水利水电出版社,2014.(YI X Y.Application and research of DHI Mike Flood Flood simulation technology[M].Beijing:China Water Resources and Hydropower Press,2014.(in Chinese))
[23]张念.桥墩壅水的数值模拟[D].北京:北京交通大学,2008.(ZHANG N.Numerical simulation of bridge pier drowning[D].Beijing:Beijing Jiaotong University,2008.(in Chinese))
[2] RIYAZ AHMAD MIR,SANJAY K JAIN,A K LOHANI.et al.Glacier recession and glacial lake outburst flood studies in Zanskar basin,western Himalaya[J].Journal of Hydrology,2018(564):376-396.DOI:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2018.05.031.
[3]周洁,董增川,朱振业.基于Mike Flood的洪泽湖周边滞洪区洪水演进模拟[J].南水北调与水利科技,2017,15(5):56-62.(ZHOU J,DONG Z C,ZHU Z Y.Flood Simulation of flood depression area around Hongze Lake based on Mike Flood[J].South-to-North Water Transfer and Water Science and Technology,2017,15(5):56-62.(in Chinese))DOI:10.13476/j.cnki.nsbdqk.2017.05.009.
[4]李艳红,周华君,时钟.山区河流平面二维流场的数值模拟[J].水科学进展,2003,14(4):424-429.(LI Y H,ZHOU H J,SHI Z.Numerical simulation of twodimensional flow field in mountain river[J].Advances in Water Science,2003,14(4):424-429.(in Chinese))DOI:10.14042/j.cnki.32.1309.2003.04.007.
[5]解刚.山区河流平面二维泥沙数学模型[D].成都:四川大学,2004.(XIE G.Mathematical model of two-dimensional sediment in mountain rivers[D].Chengdu:Sichuan University,2004.(in Chinese))
[6]陈一帆,程伟平,蒋建群,等.含水工建筑物的山区河流二维流场数值模拟[J].浙江大学学报(工学版),2013,47(11):1945-1950.(CHEN Y F,CHENG W P,JIANG J Q,et al.Numerical simulation of two-dimensional flow field of mountain rivers with waterbearing structures[J].Journal of Zhejiang University(Engineering Science),2013,47(11):1945-1950.(in Chinese))DOI:10.3785/j.issn.1008-973X.2013.11.009
[7]姜治兵,崔丹,程子兵.坝体溃决过程与溃坝洪水演进耦合数值模拟[J].长江科学院院报,2018,35(5):63-67.(JIANG Z B,CUI D,CHENG Z B.Coupling numerical simulation of dam body collapse process and dam failure flood evolution[J].Journal of Yangtze River Scientific Research Institute,2018,35(5):63-67.(in Chinese))DOI:10.11988/ckyyb.20171175.
[8]藏兴科.基于GIS耦合HEC-RAS的城市洪水灾害风险评估——以重庆市主城区长江、嘉陵江段为例[J].吉林水利,2017(3):52-27.(ZANG X K.Risk Assessment of urban flood disaster based on GIS-Coupled HEC-RAS——Taking the Yangtze River and Jialing River section of Chongqing Main City as an example[J].Jilin Water Resources,2017(3):52-27.(in Chinese))DOI:10.16867/j.cnki.cfdm.2016.02.014.
[9] Danish Hydraulic Institute(DHI).Mike11:a modeling system for rivers and channels user guide[M].Copenhagen:Danish Hydraulic Institute,2013.
[10] DanishInstitute(DHI)Mike21flow model FM:hydrodynamic module[M].Copenhagen:Danish Hydraulic Institute,2013.
[11] DanishHydraulic Institute(DHI).MikeFlood:1D-2D modeling user manual[M].Copenhagen:Danish Hydraulic Institute,2013.
[12]刘卫林,梁艳红,彭友文.基于Mike Flood的中小河流溃堤洪水演进数值模拟[J].人民长江,2017,48(7):6-10.(LIU W L,LIANG Y H,PENG Y W.Numerical simulation of flood routing evolution of small and medium-sized rivers based on Mike Flood[J].People′s Yangtze River,2017,48(7):6-10.(in Chinese))DOI:10.16232/j.cnki.1001-4179.2017.07.002.
[13]侯燕,马山玉.基于Mike与GIS的城市洪水风险分析及应用[J].水电能源科学,2016,34(11):72-76.(HOU Y,MA S Y.Analysis and application of urban flood risk based on Mike and GIS[J].Hydroelectric Energy Science,2016,34(11):72-76.(in Chinese))
[14]魏凯,梁忠民,王军.基于MIKE21的濛洼蓄滞洪区洪水演算模拟[J].南水北调与水利科技,2013,11(6):16-19.(WEI K,LIANG Z M,WANG J.Simulation of flood calculation in Mengyu flood detention area based on MIKE21[J].South-to-North Water Transfer and Water Science and Technology,2013,11(6):16-19.(in Chinese))DOI:10.3724/SP.J.1201.2013.06016.
[15]吴天蛟,杨汉波,李哲,等.基于MIKE11的三峡库区洪水演进模拟[J].水力发电学报,2014,33(2):51-57.(WU T J YANG H B,LI Z,et al.Simulation of flood evolution in the Three Gorges reservoir area based on MIKE11[J].Journal of Hydroelectric Engineering,2014,33(2):51-57.(in Chinese))
[16]金玲,许士国,于德全.中小河流洪水风险分析中的洪水演进计算研究[J].水电能源科学,2014,32(10):48-51.(JIN L,XU S G,YU D Q.Research on flood evolution calculation in flood risk analysis of medium and small rivers[J].Hydroelectric Energy Science,2014,32(10):48-51.(in Chinese))
[17]初祁,彭定志,徐宗学,等.基于Mike11和Mike21的城市暴雨洪涝灾害风险分析[J].北京师范大学学报(自然科学版),2014,50(5):446-451.(CHU W,PENG D Z,XU Z X,et al.Risk analysis of urban storm and flood disaster based on Mike11and Mike21[J].Journal of Beijing Normal University(Natural Science),2014,50(5):446-451.(in Chinese))
[18]施露,董增川,付晓花,等.Mike Flood在中小河流洪涝风险分析中的应用[J].河海大学学报(自然科学版),2017,45(4):351-357.(SHI L,DONG Z C,FU Xi H,et al.Application of Mike Flood in risk analysis of floods in medium and small rivers[J].Journal of Hohai University,2017,45(4):351-357.(in Chinese))DOI10.3876/j.issn.1000-1980.2017.04.011.
[19]叶爱民,刘曙光,韩超,等.Mike Flood耦合模型在杭嘉湖流域嘉兴地区洪水风险图编制工作中的应用[J].研究探讨,2016,26(2):56-60.(YE A M,LIU S G,HAN C,et al.Application of Mike Flood coupling model in the compilation of flood risk map in Jiaxing area of Hangzhou-Jiaxing-Huzhou Basin[J].Research,2016,26(2):56-60.(in Chinese))DOI:10.16867/j.cnki.cfdm.2016.02.014.
[20]何典灿,周建中,江炎生,等.基于MIKE的杜家台洪道行洪能力研究[J].长江科学院院报,2017,34(9):52-56.(HE D C,ZHOU J Z,JIANG Y S,et al.Research on flooding capacity of Dujiatai flood road based on MIKE[J].Journal of Yangtze River Scientific Research Institute,2017,34(9):52-56.(in Chinese))DOI:10.11988/ckyyb.20160514.
[21]郭凤清,屈寒飞,曾辉.基于Mike21的潖江蓄滞洪区洪水危险性快速预测[J].自然灾害学报,2013,22(3):144-152.(GUO F Q,QU H F,ZENG H.Rapid prediction of flood risk in the Lujiang River Flood detention area based on Mike21[J].Journal of Natural Disasters,2013,22(3):144-152.(in Chinese))DOI:10.13577/j.jnd.2013.0320.
[22]衣秀勇.DHI Mike Flood洪水模拟技术应用与研究[M].北京:中国水利水电出版社,2014.(YI X Y.Application and research of DHI Mike Flood Flood simulation technology[M].Beijing:China Water Resources and Hydropower Press,2014.(in Chinese))
[23]张念.桥墩壅水的数值模拟[D].北京:北京交通大学,2008.(ZHANG N.Numerical simulation of bridge pier drowning[D].Beijing:Beijing Jiaotong University,2008.(in Chinese))