我国单体滑坡模拟和区域滑坡易发性评价研究进展
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摘要
自然环境的演化及人类工程活动对自然环境的改变,造成的滑坡灾害频发,给人民生命财产安全带来极大的威胁。因此,总结我国滑坡模拟研究发展趋势和存在问题,提出发展方向建议,无疑对滑坡模拟研究具有重要的指导意义。论文采用计量和内容分析相结合的方法,分析了我国近30年来滑坡模拟研究热点和主要进展,提出了滑坡模拟研究方法物理模拟与数值模拟相结合和模拟"数据采集新、数据分析新、可视化方式新"三新的发展趋势;基于滑坡模拟基础模型适用性选择理论不成熟、灾害空间预测方法不具有地区普适性的现状,提出了在可视化基础上开展特定区域空间连续自动预测的灾害空间预测发展方向建议。
The evolution of natural environment and the change of natural environment caused by human engineering activities have resulted in frequent landslide disasters,which poses a great threat to people's lives and property safety. Therefore,it is undoubtedly of great guiding significance to summarize the development trend and existing problems of landslide simulation research in China and put forward suggestions for its development direction. In this paper,the research hotspots and main progress of landslide simulation in China in recent 30 years are analyzed by the method of combining measurement with content analysis. Three new trends of landslide simulation are proposed,which are the combination of physical simulation and numerical simulation,and the simulation of "new data acquisition,new data analysis and new visualization methods".Based on the current situation that the applicability selection theory of landslide simulation basic model is immature and the spatial prediction method of disasters does not have regional universality,the development direction of disaster spatial prediction for spatial continuous automatic prediction in specific regions based on visualization is proposed.
The evolution of natural environment and the change of natural environment caused by human engineering activities have resulted in frequent landslide disasters,which poses a great threat to people's lives and property safety. Therefore,it is undoubtedly of great guiding significance to summarize the development trend and existing problems of landslide simulation research in China and put forward suggestions for its development direction. In this paper,the research hotspots and main progress of landslide simulation in China in recent 30 years are analyzed by the method of combining measurement with content analysis. Three new trends of landslide simulation are proposed,which are the combination of physical simulation and numerical simulation,and the simulation of "new data acquisition,new data analysis and new visualization methods".Based on the current situation that the applicability selection theory of landslide simulation basic model is immature and the spatial prediction method of disasters does not have regional universality,the development direction of disaster spatial prediction for spatial continuous automatic prediction in specific regions based on visualization is proposed.
引文
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[20]安凯强,牛瑞卿.信息量支持下SVM模型滑坡灾害易发性评价[J].长江科学院院报,2016(8):47-51+58.AN Kaiqiang,NIU Ruiqing. Landslide susceptibility assessment using support vector machine based on weighted-information model[J]. Journal of Yangtze River Scientific Research Institute,2016(8):47-51+58.
[21]刘玉洲,肖盛燮,王子健,等.滑坡稳定性的模糊综合评判[J].四川建筑,2010(1):89-91.LIU Yuzhou,XIAO Shengyan,WANG Zijian,et al.Fuzzy comprehensive evaluation of landslide stability[J]. Sichuan Architecture,2010(1):89-91.
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[2]李江,伍军红,孙秀坤.中国科技期刊的“核心区”研究—基于布拉德福定律与二八法则的统计分析[J].中国科技期刊研究,2013(6):869-873.LI Jiang,WU Junhong,SUN Xiukun. Research on the core area of Chinese scitech periodicals based on the statistical analysis of Brad Ford’s law and the 28 law[J]. Chinese Journal of Scientific and Technical Periodicals,2013(6):869-873.
[3]邓建丽.基于FVM的滑坡运动三维动态仿真及应用[D].兰州:兰州大学,2008.DENG Jianli. 3D dynamic simulation of landslide movement based on FVM and its application[D].Lanzhou:Lanzhou University,2008.
[4]杜娟,殷坤龙,王佳佳.基于有限体积法的滑坡-碎屑流三维运动过程模拟分析[J].岩石力学与工程学报,2015,34(3):480-488.DU Juan,YIN Kunlong,WANG Jiajia. Simulation of Three-dimensional movement of landslide-debris flow based on finite volume method[J]. Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering, 2015,34(3):480-488.
[5]刘忠玉,马崇武,苗天德,等.高速滑坡远程预测的块体运动模型[J].岩石力学与工程学报,2000(6):742-746.LIU Zhongyu,MA Chongwu,MIAO Tiande,et al.Kinematic block model of long run-out prediction for High-speed landslides[J]. Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering,2000(6):742-746.
[6]任光明,李树森,聂德新,等.顺层坡滑坡形成机制的物理模拟及力学分析[J].山地研究,1998(3):182-187.REN Guangming,LI Shusen,NIE Dexin,et al. The physical simulation and mechanical analysis on lanslide’s formation mechanism on consequent slope[J]. Journal of Mountain Research,1998(3):182-187.
[7]范宣梅,许强,张倬元,等.平推式滑坡成因机制研究[J].岩石力学与工程报,2008,(增刊2):3753-3759.FAN Xuanmei,XU Qiang,ZHANG Zhuoyuan,et al.Study on genetic mechanism of translational landslide[J]. Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering,2008,(S2):3753-3759.
[8]张健,王小群,王兰生,等.大光包滑坡启动机制的物理模拟试验[J].水文地质工程地质,2013,40(3):58-62.ZHANG Jian,WANG Xiaoqun,WANG Lansheng,et al. Physical simulation on the formation mechanism of the Daguangbao landslide[J]. Hydrogeology and Engineering Geology,2013,40(3):58-62.
[9]曹从伍,许强,彭大雷,等.基于物理模拟实验的黑方台黄土滑坡破坏机理研究[J].水文地质工程地质,2016,43(4):72-77.CAO Congwu,XU Qiang,PENG Dalei,et al. Research on the failure mechanism of the Heifangtai loess landslides based on the physical simulation experiments[J]. Hydrogeology and Engineering Geology,2016,43(4):72-77.
[10]易志坚,黄润秋,吴海燕,等.唐古栋滑坡成因机制研究[J].工程地质学报,2016,24(6):1072-1079.YI Zhijian,HUANG Runqiu,WU Haiyan, et al.Research on formation mechanism of Tanggudong landslide[J]. Journal of Engineering Geology,2016,24(6):1072-1079.
[11]张灵熹,陈筠,刘恋嘉,等.云盘头滑坡变形破坏机制物理模拟研究[J].长江科学院院报,2018.ZHANG Lingxi,CHEN Jun,LIU Lianjia,et al.Physical simulation study on deformation damage mechanism of Yun pan landslide[J]. Journal of Yangtze River Scientific Research Institute,2018.
[12]齐超,邢爱国,殷跃平,等.东河口高速远程滑坡一碎屑流全程动力特性模拟[J].工程地质学报,2012,20(3):334-339.QI Chao,XING Aiguo,YIN Yueping,et al. Dynamic characteristics simulation of rapid and long run-out landslide-debris flow in East Hekou[J]. Journal of Engineering Geology,2012,20(3):334-339.
[13]高杨,殷跃平,邢爱国,等.鸡尾山高速远程滑坡—碎屑流动力学特征分析[J].中国地质灾害与防治学报,2013,24(4):46-51.GAO Yang,YIN Yueping,XING Aiguo,et al.Jiweishan rapid and long run-out landslide-debris flow dynamic characteristics analysis[J]. The Chinese Journal of Geological Hazard and Control,2013,24(4):46-51.
[14]柴贺军,王士天,许强,等.西藏易贡滑坡物质运动全过程数值模拟研究[J].地质灾害与环境保护,2001(2):1-3,82.CHAI Hejun,WANG Shitian,XU Qiang,et al.Numerical simulation on overall process of Yigong study at Bomi,Tibet[J]. Journal of Geological Hazards and Environment Preservation,2001(2):1-3,82.
[15]蒋树,王义锋,刘科,等.滑坡灾害空间预测方法研究综述[J].人民长江,2017,48(27):67-73.JIANG Shu,WANG Yifeng,LIU Ke,et al. Review on landslide hazard spatial prediction methods[J].Yangtze River,2017,48(27):67-73.
[16]陈悦丽,陈德辉,李泽椿,等.基于Monte CarloSHALSTAB模型的滑坡危险性评价——以福建省德化县为例[J].灾害学,2015(4):101-106.CHEN Yueli,CHEN Dehui, LI Zechun,et al.Assessment of landslide hazard based on Monte CarloSHALSTAB Model[J]. Journal of Catastrophology,2015(4):101-106.
[17]武利.基于SINMAP模型的区域滑坡危险性定量评估及模型验证[J].地理与地理信息科学,2012(2):35-39.WU Li. A SINMAP-based quantitative assessment and model verification of regional landslide hazard[J].Geography and Geo-Information Science,2012(2):35-39.
[18]夏蒙,王家鼎,谷天峰,等.基于TRIGRS模型的浅层黄土滑坡破坏概率评价[J].兰州大学学报(自然科学版),2013(4):453-458.XIA Meng,WANG Jiading,GU Tianfeng,et al.Evaluation of shallow loess landslide destruction probability based on TRIGRS model[J]. Journal of Lanzhou University(Natural Sciences),2013(4):453-458.
[19]王志旺,李端有,王湘桂.证据权法在滑坡危险度区划研究中的应用[J].岩土工程学报,2007(8):1268-1273.WANG Zhiwang,LI Duanyou,WANG Xianggui.Zonation of landslide hazards based on weights of evidence model[J]. Chinese Journal of Geotechnical Engineering,2007(8):1268-1273.
[20]安凯强,牛瑞卿.信息量支持下SVM模型滑坡灾害易发性评价[J].长江科学院院报,2016(8):47-51+58.AN Kaiqiang,NIU Ruiqing. Landslide susceptibility assessment using support vector machine based on weighted-information model[J]. Journal of Yangtze River Scientific Research Institute,2016(8):47-51+58.
[21]刘玉洲,肖盛燮,王子健,等.滑坡稳定性的模糊综合评判[J].四川建筑,2010(1):89-91.LIU Yuzhou,XIAO Shengyan,WANG Zijian,et al.Fuzzy comprehensive evaluation of landslide stability[J]. Sichuan Architecture,2010(1):89-91.
[22]申杰,刘浩吾,郑小玉.一种新的滑坡可视化方法[J].岩石力学与工程学报,2002,21(9):1364-1367.SHEN Jie,LIU Haowu,ZHENG Xiaoyu. New method for landslide visualization[J]. Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering,2002,21(9):1364-1367.
[23]王旭春,蒋宇静,赵月,等.滑坡GIS可视化研究与应用[J].岩石力学与工程学报,2002,21(2):2511-2514.WANG Xuchun,JIANG Yujing,ZHAO Yue,et al.Study and application on the visualization of geological information system in landslide[J]. Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering,2002,21(2):2511-2514.
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