LUCC及气候变化对澜沧江流域径流的影响
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摘要
运用SWAT模型,通过设置不同情景,定量分析了澜沧江流域土地利用与土地覆被变化(Land Use and Land Cover Change,LUCC)和气候变化对径流的影响,并结合RCP4.5、RCP8.5两种排放情景对流域未来径流的变化进行预估。结果表明:SWAT模型在澜沧江流域径流模拟中具有很好的适用性,率定期和验证期的模型参数R~2分别达到0.80、0.74,Ens分别达到0.80、0.73;从土地利用变化方面考虑,流域内的农业用地转化为林地或草地,均会导致径流量的减少,而林地转化为草地则会引起径流量的增加,农业用地、林地、草地三者对径流增加贡献顺序为农业用地>草地>林地,从气候变化方面考虑,流域内的径流量与降雨量成正比,与气温成反比;2006—2015年间澜沧江流域气候变化引起的月均径流减少幅度强于LUCC引起的月均径流增加幅度,径流变化由气候变化主导;在RCP4.5和RCP8.5两种排放情景下,2021—2050年间澜沧江流域的径流均呈增加趋势,这与1971—2015年间流域实测径流的变化趋势相反。
Using the SWAT(Soil and Water Assessment Tools) model, the impacts of LUCC(land use and land cover change) and climate change on runoff in Lancang River Basin were quantitatively analyzed by setting different scenarios. The future runoff changes were predicted with RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 emissions scenarios in Lancang River Basin. The results showed that the SWAT model had good applicability in runoff simulation of Lancang River Basin. The model parameters R~2 of calibration and validation periods were 0.80 and 0.74, respectively. The model parameters Ens of calibration and validation periods were 0.80 and 0.73, respectively. Considering the land use change, the conversion of farmland into woodland or grassland would reduce basin runoff, but the conversion of woodland into grassland would increase basin runoff. The contribution to basin runoff from big to small was farmland, grassland, and woodland. Regarding climate change, the basin runoff was proportional to rainfall, but inversely proportional to temperature. The reduction of monthly runoff caused by climate change was stronger than the increment caused by LUCC in Lancang River Basin from 2006 to 2015. Therefore, runoff change was dominated by climate change. The runoff in Lancang River Basin in both RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 emissions scenarios would increase from 2021 to 2050, which is contrary to the measured basin runoff from 1971 to 2015.
Using the SWAT(Soil and Water Assessment Tools) model, the impacts of LUCC(land use and land cover change) and climate change on runoff in Lancang River Basin were quantitatively analyzed by setting different scenarios. The future runoff changes were predicted with RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 emissions scenarios in Lancang River Basin. The results showed that the SWAT model had good applicability in runoff simulation of Lancang River Basin. The model parameters R~2 of calibration and validation periods were 0.80 and 0.74, respectively. The model parameters Ens of calibration and validation periods were 0.80 and 0.73, respectively. Considering the land use change, the conversion of farmland into woodland or grassland would reduce basin runoff, but the conversion of woodland into grassland would increase basin runoff. The contribution to basin runoff from big to small was farmland, grassland, and woodland. Regarding climate change, the basin runoff was proportional to rainfall, but inversely proportional to temperature. The reduction of monthly runoff caused by climate change was stronger than the increment caused by LUCC in Lancang River Basin from 2006 to 2015. Therefore, runoff change was dominated by climate change. The runoff in Lancang River Basin in both RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 emissions scenarios would increase from 2021 to 2050, which is contrary to the measured basin runoff from 1971 to 2015.
引文
[1] 祖拜代·木依布拉,师庆东,普拉提·莫合塔尔,张润.基于SWAT模型的乌鲁木齐河上游土地利用和气候变化对径流的影响.生态学报,2018,38(14):5149-5157.
[2] 李帅,魏虹,刘媛,马文超,顾艳文,彭月,李昌晓.气候与土地利用变化下宁夏清水河流域径流模拟.生态学报,2017,37(4):1252-1260.
[3] 杨满根,陈星.气候变化对淮河流域中上游汛期极端流量影响的SWAT模拟.生态学报,2017,37(23):8107-8116.
[4] Guo J,Su X L,Singh V P,Jin J M.Impacts of climate and land use/cover change on streamflow using SWAT and a separation method for the Xiying River Basin in northwestern China.Water,2016,8(5):192.
[5] Yang L S,Feng Q,Yin Z L,Wen X H,Si J H,Li C B,Deo R C.Identifying separate impacts of climate and land use/cover change on hydrological processes in upper stream of Heihe River,Northwest China.Hydrological Processes,2017,31(5):1100-1112.
[6] 郭军庭,张志强,王盛萍,Peter S,姚安坤.应用SWAT模型研究潮河流域土地利用和气候变化对径流的影响.生态学报,2014,34(6):1559-1567.
[7] 宫兴龙,付强,邢贞相,关英红,王斌,李茉.土地利用方式对平原-丘陵-湿地交融区水资源的影响.农业机械学报,2018,49(6):254-262.
[8] Zhang L,Nan Z T,Yu W J,Ge Y C,Xu Y.Comparison of baseline period choices for separating climate and land use/land cover change impactson watershed hydrology using distributed hydrological models.Science of the Total Environment,2018,622:1016-1028.
[9] Li B Q,Xiao W H,Wang Y C,Yang M Z,Huang Y.Impact of land use/cover change on the relationship between precipitation and runoff in typical area.Journal of Water and Climate Change,2018,9(2):261-274.
[10] 黄金龙,王艳君,苏布达,翟建青.RCP4.5情景下长江上游流域未来气候变化及其对径流的影响.气象,2016,42(5):614-620.
[11] Zhang Y,Zhong P A,Chen J,Bing J P,Xu D H,Wang M L.Impacts of climate change and human activities on the Three Gorges Reservoir inflow.Water,2017,9(12):957.
[12] 刘世梁,安南南,尹艺洁,成方妍,董世魁.基于SWAT模型的澜沧江中游小流域水土流失与NDVI时空动态相关性.水土保持学报,2016,30(1):62-67.
[13] 陈晓舒,赵同谦,李聪,郑华.基于不同利益相关者的水电能源基地建设经济损益研究——以澜沧江干流为例.生态学报,2017,37(13):4495-4504.
[14] Wang H,Sun F B,Xia J,Liu W B.Impact of LUCC on streamflow based on the SWAT model over the Wei River Basin on the Loess Plateau in China.Hydrology and Earth System Sciences,2017,21(4):1929-1945.
[15] 王莺,张强,王劲松,张雷.基于分布式水文模型(SWAT)的土地利用和气候变化对洮河流域水文影响特征.中国沙漠,2017,37(1):175-185.
[16] 孟现勇,王浩,雷晓辉,蔡思宇.基于CMDAS驱动SWAT模式的精博河流域水文相关分量模拟、验证及分析.生态学报,2017,37(21):7114-7127.
[17] 何云玲,李同艳,熊巧利,余岚.2000—2016年云南地区植被覆盖时空变化及其对水热因子的响应.生态学报,2018,38(24):8813-8821.
[18] 渠勇建,成向荣,虞木奎,吴初平,袁位高.基于SWAT模型的衢江流域土地利用变化径流模拟研究.水土保持研究,2019,26(1):130-134.
[19] 吕乐婷,王晓蕊,孙才志,张杰.基于SWAT模型的细河流域蓝水绿水资源量时空分布研究.长江流域资源与环境,2019,28(1):39-47.
[20] Anand J,Gosain A K,Khosa R.Prediction of land use changes based on Land Change Modeler and attribution of changes in the water balance of Ganga Basin to land use change using the SWAT model.Science of the Total Environment,2018,644:503-519.
[21] 杨凯杰,吕昌河.SWAT模型应用与不确定性综述.水土保持学报,2018,32(1):17-31.
[22] 周帅,王义民,郭爱军,周凯,李紫妍.SWAT模型参数不确定性对黄河上游径流模拟的影响.西北农林科技大学学报:自然科学版,2019,47(8),doi:10.13207/j.cnki.jnwafu.2019.08.018.
[23] 王政祥.澜沧江流域近15年水资源及其利用状况分析.人民长江,2018,49(22):40-44.
[24] 于文金,苏荣,邵明阳,于步云,谢涛,黄亦露.澜沧江流域暴雨干旱灾害与海温异常波动规律的相关性.生态学报,2016,36(4):1115-1124.
[25] 王书霞,张利平,李意,佘敦先.气候变化情景下澜沧江流域极端洪水事件研究.气候变化研究进展,2019,15(1):23-32.
[26] 于文金,黄亦露,邵明阳.澜沧江流域极端天气灾害特征及波动趋势.生态学报,2015,35(5):1378-1387.
[27] 胡胜.基于SWAT模型的北洛河流域生态水文过程模拟与预测研究[D].西安:西北大学,2015.
[28] Gao X J,Shi Y,Giorgi F.Comparison of convective parameterizations in RegCM4 experiments over China with CLM as the land surface model.Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters,2016,9(4):246-254.
[29] Moss R H,Edmonds J A,Hibbard K A,Manning MR,Rose SK,Van Vuuren DP,Carter TR,Emori S,Kainuma M,Kram T,Meehl GA,Mitchell JF,Nakicenovic N,Riahi K,Smith SJ,Stouffer RJ,Thomson AM,Weyant JP,Wilbanks TJ.The next generation of scenarios for climate change research and Assessment.Nature,2010,463(7282):747-756.
[30] 陆敏鹏,林而达.代表性浓度路径情景下的全球温室气体减排和对中国的挑战.气候变化研究进展,2010,6(6):436-442.
[31] 初征,郭建平,赵俊芳.东北地区未来气候变化对农业气候资源的影响.地理学报,2017,72(7):1248-1260.
[32] 王学.基于SWAT模型的白马河流域土地利用/覆被变化的水文效应研究[D].济南:山东师范大学,2012.
[33] 罗开盛,陶福禄.基于SWAT的西北干旱区县域水文模拟——以临泽县为例.生态学报,2018,38(23):8593-8603.
[34] 成向荣,渠勇建,虞木奎,吴初平,袁位高.植被覆盖变化对衢江流域水文效应的影响.生态环境学报,2017,26(11):1829-1835.
[35] 张新荣,刘林萍,方石,姜文超,王金臣.土地利用、覆被变化(LUCC)与环境变化关系研究进展.生态环境学报,2014,23(12):2013-2021.
[36] 王杰,黄英,段琪彩,刘新有.土地利用变化情景下牧羊河水文响应研究.长江流域资源与环境,2013,22(6):756-762.
[37] 吴淼,石朋,张行南,瞿思敏,陈昂.土地利用变化对径流影响的定量研究.人民黄河,2018,40(3):39-43.
[38] 廖文婷,邓红兵,李若男,郑华.水利工程对坝下径流的影响——以葛洲坝、三峡水利枢纽为例.生态学报,2018,38(5):1750-1757.
[39] 黄维,王为东.三峡工程运行后对洞庭湖湿地的影响.生态学报,2016,36(20):6345-6352.
[40] 贾凤.丰满水电站对径流影响评价研究.水利科技与经济,2018,24(2):66-71.
[2] 李帅,魏虹,刘媛,马文超,顾艳文,彭月,李昌晓.气候与土地利用变化下宁夏清水河流域径流模拟.生态学报,2017,37(4):1252-1260.
[3] 杨满根,陈星.气候变化对淮河流域中上游汛期极端流量影响的SWAT模拟.生态学报,2017,37(23):8107-8116.
[4] Guo J,Su X L,Singh V P,Jin J M.Impacts of climate and land use/cover change on streamflow using SWAT and a separation method for the Xiying River Basin in northwestern China.Water,2016,8(5):192.
[5] Yang L S,Feng Q,Yin Z L,Wen X H,Si J H,Li C B,Deo R C.Identifying separate impacts of climate and land use/cover change on hydrological processes in upper stream of Heihe River,Northwest China.Hydrological Processes,2017,31(5):1100-1112.
[6] 郭军庭,张志强,王盛萍,Peter S,姚安坤.应用SWAT模型研究潮河流域土地利用和气候变化对径流的影响.生态学报,2014,34(6):1559-1567.
[7] 宫兴龙,付强,邢贞相,关英红,王斌,李茉.土地利用方式对平原-丘陵-湿地交融区水资源的影响.农业机械学报,2018,49(6):254-262.
[8] Zhang L,Nan Z T,Yu W J,Ge Y C,Xu Y.Comparison of baseline period choices for separating climate and land use/land cover change impactson watershed hydrology using distributed hydrological models.Science of the Total Environment,2018,622:1016-1028.
[9] Li B Q,Xiao W H,Wang Y C,Yang M Z,Huang Y.Impact of land use/cover change on the relationship between precipitation and runoff in typical area.Journal of Water and Climate Change,2018,9(2):261-274.
[10] 黄金龙,王艳君,苏布达,翟建青.RCP4.5情景下长江上游流域未来气候变化及其对径流的影响.气象,2016,42(5):614-620.
[11] Zhang Y,Zhong P A,Chen J,Bing J P,Xu D H,Wang M L.Impacts of climate change and human activities on the Three Gorges Reservoir inflow.Water,2017,9(12):957.
[12] 刘世梁,安南南,尹艺洁,成方妍,董世魁.基于SWAT模型的澜沧江中游小流域水土流失与NDVI时空动态相关性.水土保持学报,2016,30(1):62-67.
[13] 陈晓舒,赵同谦,李聪,郑华.基于不同利益相关者的水电能源基地建设经济损益研究——以澜沧江干流为例.生态学报,2017,37(13):4495-4504.
[14] Wang H,Sun F B,Xia J,Liu W B.Impact of LUCC on streamflow based on the SWAT model over the Wei River Basin on the Loess Plateau in China.Hydrology and Earth System Sciences,2017,21(4):1929-1945.
[15] 王莺,张强,王劲松,张雷.基于分布式水文模型(SWAT)的土地利用和气候变化对洮河流域水文影响特征.中国沙漠,2017,37(1):175-185.
[16] 孟现勇,王浩,雷晓辉,蔡思宇.基于CMDAS驱动SWAT模式的精博河流域水文相关分量模拟、验证及分析.生态学报,2017,37(21):7114-7127.
[17] 何云玲,李同艳,熊巧利,余岚.2000—2016年云南地区植被覆盖时空变化及其对水热因子的响应.生态学报,2018,38(24):8813-8821.
[18] 渠勇建,成向荣,虞木奎,吴初平,袁位高.基于SWAT模型的衢江流域土地利用变化径流模拟研究.水土保持研究,2019,26(1):130-134.
[19] 吕乐婷,王晓蕊,孙才志,张杰.基于SWAT模型的细河流域蓝水绿水资源量时空分布研究.长江流域资源与环境,2019,28(1):39-47.
[20] Anand J,Gosain A K,Khosa R.Prediction of land use changes based on Land Change Modeler and attribution of changes in the water balance of Ganga Basin to land use change using the SWAT model.Science of the Total Environment,2018,644:503-519.
[21] 杨凯杰,吕昌河.SWAT模型应用与不确定性综述.水土保持学报,2018,32(1):17-31.
[22] 周帅,王义民,郭爱军,周凯,李紫妍.SWAT模型参数不确定性对黄河上游径流模拟的影响.西北农林科技大学学报:自然科学版,2019,47(8),doi:10.13207/j.cnki.jnwafu.2019.08.018.
[23] 王政祥.澜沧江流域近15年水资源及其利用状况分析.人民长江,2018,49(22):40-44.
[24] 于文金,苏荣,邵明阳,于步云,谢涛,黄亦露.澜沧江流域暴雨干旱灾害与海温异常波动规律的相关性.生态学报,2016,36(4):1115-1124.
[25] 王书霞,张利平,李意,佘敦先.气候变化情景下澜沧江流域极端洪水事件研究.气候变化研究进展,2019,15(1):23-32.
[26] 于文金,黄亦露,邵明阳.澜沧江流域极端天气灾害特征及波动趋势.生态学报,2015,35(5):1378-1387.
[27] 胡胜.基于SWAT模型的北洛河流域生态水文过程模拟与预测研究[D].西安:西北大学,2015.
[28] Gao X J,Shi Y,Giorgi F.Comparison of convective parameterizations in RegCM4 experiments over China with CLM as the land surface model.Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters,2016,9(4):246-254.
[29] Moss R H,Edmonds J A,Hibbard K A,Manning MR,Rose SK,Van Vuuren DP,Carter TR,Emori S,Kainuma M,Kram T,Meehl GA,Mitchell JF,Nakicenovic N,Riahi K,Smith SJ,Stouffer RJ,Thomson AM,Weyant JP,Wilbanks TJ.The next generation of scenarios for climate change research and Assessment.Nature,2010,463(7282):747-756.
[30] 陆敏鹏,林而达.代表性浓度路径情景下的全球温室气体减排和对中国的挑战.气候变化研究进展,2010,6(6):436-442.
[31] 初征,郭建平,赵俊芳.东北地区未来气候变化对农业气候资源的影响.地理学报,2017,72(7):1248-1260.
[32] 王学.基于SWAT模型的白马河流域土地利用/覆被变化的水文效应研究[D].济南:山东师范大学,2012.
[33] 罗开盛,陶福禄.基于SWAT的西北干旱区县域水文模拟——以临泽县为例.生态学报,2018,38(23):8593-8603.
[34] 成向荣,渠勇建,虞木奎,吴初平,袁位高.植被覆盖变化对衢江流域水文效应的影响.生态环境学报,2017,26(11):1829-1835.
[35] 张新荣,刘林萍,方石,姜文超,王金臣.土地利用、覆被变化(LUCC)与环境变化关系研究进展.生态环境学报,2014,23(12):2013-2021.
[36] 王杰,黄英,段琪彩,刘新有.土地利用变化情景下牧羊河水文响应研究.长江流域资源与环境,2013,22(6):756-762.
[37] 吴淼,石朋,张行南,瞿思敏,陈昂.土地利用变化对径流影响的定量研究.人民黄河,2018,40(3):39-43.
[38] 廖文婷,邓红兵,李若男,郑华.水利工程对坝下径流的影响——以葛洲坝、三峡水利枢纽为例.生态学报,2018,38(5):1750-1757.
[39] 黄维,王为东.三峡工程运行后对洞庭湖湿地的影响.生态学报,2016,36(20):6345-6352.
[40] 贾凤.丰满水电站对径流影响评价研究.水利科技与经济,2018,24(2):66-71.