生长季川陕不同地带植被覆盖对气候变化的时空响应
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摘要
川陕地区处于中国800mm等降水量线过渡带的南北两侧,区内分山、川、原3种地形,是退耕还林(草)最早实施区域。基于2001—2014年的MODIS、气温和降水量数据,选取10种植被地带数据,采用Sen+MK检验和时滞偏相关等方法,结合重分类后的4种地貌类型和6类土地利用/覆盖数据,分年内生长季、年际生长季和非生长季的对比、以及植被生长最好的8月与5月、6月、7月、8月、5—6月、6—7月、7—8月、5—8月共8个时间段的相关性3种时间尺度,对川陕地区植被NDVI与气候因子的关系进行了深入探讨。结果表明:1)川陕、陕西和四川年均气温分别以0.02℃/10a、0.01℃/10a和0.03℃/10a(通过0.01显著性水平)的线性速度增加,低于近50年来(1951—2001年)全国的气温增速(0.22℃/10a);2)川陕、陕西、四川尺度上,植被NDVI与同季气温、降水量的相关性一致,与上季的相关性不具一致性。植被NDVI与上季气温、降水量的相关性均高于同季,相较于降水量,与气温呈现出更多的负相关性,其中陕西地区最为显著;3)川陕地区气温变化趋势与全球变暖不同步,植被生长受气温的影响较小或无影响;降水量相较于气温对陕西地区植被生长的影响更大;气温是四川植被生长的主要限制因素。植被覆盖与气温、降水量的相关性在草地、林地和农耕区最为显著。
Sichuan-Shaanxi area is located in the north and south sides of the transition zone of 800 mm isohyet in China. The area is divided into three terrains including mountain, river, and grassland, which is the earliest implementation area of returning farmland to forest(grass). Based on the data of MODIS, temperature, and precipitation in 10 vegetation zones from the year 2001 to 2014, the methods of Sen+MK test and time-delay partial correlation are adopted. Combined with 4 geomorphologic types and 6 types of re-classified land use/cover data, the relationship between the NDVI of the vegetation in Sichuan-Shaanxi zone and climatic factors was discussed at three time scales: the comparison within annual growing season, interannual growing season, and non-growing season, the August with the best vegetation growth, and the correlation of eight periods, including May, June, July, August, May—June, June—July, July—August. The results are as follows: 1) The annually average temperature in Sichuan-Shaanxi, Shaanxi, and Sichuan increased linearly at 0.02℃/10 a, 0.01℃/10 a, and 0.03℃/10 a(at 0.01 significant level),which was lower than the national growth rate of temperature(0.22℃/10 a) in last 50 years(1951—2001); 2)In the areas of Sichuan-Shaanxi, Shaanxi, and Sichuan, the correlation between vegetation NDVI and temperature, precipitation in the same season was consistent, but the correlation with that last season was inconsistent. The correlation between vegetation NDVI and the temperature, precipitation in last season was higher than that in the same season. Compared with the precipitation, the vegetation NDVI showed more negative correlation with temperature, and it was the most significant in Shaanxi; 3) The change of temperature in Sichuan-Shaanxi region showed no same trends with global warming, and the vegetation growth was less or not affected by temperature. The influence of precipitation on vegetation growth in Shaanxi was greater than that of temperature. Temperature is a main limited factor in determining vegetation growth in Sichuan. The correlation between vegetation cover and temperature, precipitation was the most significant in grassland, woodland. and farming area.
Sichuan-Shaanxi area is located in the north and south sides of the transition zone of 800 mm isohyet in China. The area is divided into three terrains including mountain, river, and grassland, which is the earliest implementation area of returning farmland to forest(grass). Based on the data of MODIS, temperature, and precipitation in 10 vegetation zones from the year 2001 to 2014, the methods of Sen+MK test and time-delay partial correlation are adopted. Combined with 4 geomorphologic types and 6 types of re-classified land use/cover data, the relationship between the NDVI of the vegetation in Sichuan-Shaanxi zone and climatic factors was discussed at three time scales: the comparison within annual growing season, interannual growing season, and non-growing season, the August with the best vegetation growth, and the correlation of eight periods, including May, June, July, August, May—June, June—July, July—August. The results are as follows: 1) The annually average temperature in Sichuan-Shaanxi, Shaanxi, and Sichuan increased linearly at 0.02℃/10 a, 0.01℃/10 a, and 0.03℃/10 a(at 0.01 significant level),which was lower than the national growth rate of temperature(0.22℃/10 a) in last 50 years(1951—2001); 2)In the areas of Sichuan-Shaanxi, Shaanxi, and Sichuan, the correlation between vegetation NDVI and temperature, precipitation in the same season was consistent, but the correlation with that last season was inconsistent. The correlation between vegetation NDVI and the temperature, precipitation in last season was higher than that in the same season. Compared with the precipitation, the vegetation NDVI showed more negative correlation with temperature, and it was the most significant in Shaanxi; 3) The change of temperature in Sichuan-Shaanxi region showed no same trends with global warming, and the vegetation growth was less or not affected by temperature. The influence of precipitation on vegetation growth in Shaanxi was greater than that of temperature. Temperature is a main limited factor in determining vegetation growth in Sichuan. The correlation between vegetation cover and temperature, precipitation was the most significant in grassland, woodland. and farming area.
引文
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[10] 谢建群,欧阳禹杰,陈秀芸,赵美霞,陈特固.18802015年汕头降水量变化趋势与全球气候变暖的关系.热带地理,2016,36(6):895- 900.
[11] Tucker C J.Red and photographic infrared linear combinations for monitoring vegetation.Remote Sensing of Environment,1979,8(2):127- 150.
[12] 成方妍,刘世梁,尹艺洁,吕一河,安南南,刘昕明.基于MODIS NDVI的广西沿海植被动态及其主要驱动因素.生态学报,2017,37(3):788- 797.
[13] 何艳芳,张喨.陕西省1980- 2006年气候变化时空特征研究.干旱区资源与环境,2011,25(11):59- 63.
[14] 杜华明,延军平.四川省气候变化特征与旱涝区域响应.资源科学,2013,35(12):2491- 2500.
[15] 张善红,白红英,高翔,贺映娜,任园园.太白山植被指数时空变化及其对区域温度的响应.自然资源学报,2011,26(8):1377- 1386.
[16] 徐振锋.川西亚高山林线交错带典型优势物种物候与生长对模拟增温的初期响应[D].雅安:四川农业大学,2008.
[17] 周靖靖.刺槐林叶面积指数特征及其遥感影像反演[D].杨凌:西北农林科技大学,2014.
[18] 张君,延军平.1982- 2013年陕西不同植被类型NDVI变化特征分析.干旱区资源与环境,2017,31(4):86- 92.
[19] 李登科,范建忠,王娟.陕西省植被覆盖度变化特征及其成因.应用生态学报,2010,21(11):2896- 2903.
[20] Theil H.A rankinvariant method of linear and polynomial regression analysis I.Proceedings of the Koninklijke Nederlandse Akademie Wetenschappen,Series A Mathematical Sciences,1950,53:386- 392.
[21] Sen P K.Estimates of the regression coefficient based on Kendall′s tau.Journal of the American Statistical Association,1968,63(324):1379- 1389.
[22] Kendall M G.Rank Correlation Methods.London:Griffin,1970.
[23] 张翀,任志远,韦振锋.近12年来黄土高原植被覆盖对年内水热条件的响应.资源科学,2013,35(10):2017- 2023.
[24] 任国玉,郭军,徐铭志,初子莹,张莉,邹旭凯,李庆祥,刘小宁.近50年中国地面气候变化基本特征.气象学报,2005,63(6):942- 956.
[25] 《气候变化国家评估报告》编写委员会.气候变化国家评估报告.北京:科学出版社,2007.
[26] 陈媛,王文圣,王国庆,王顺久.金沙江流域气温降水变化特性分析.高原山地气象研究,2010,30(4):51- 56.
[27] Myneni R B,Keeling C D,Tucker C J,Asrar G,Nemani R R.Increased plant growth in the northern high latitudes from 1981 to 1991.Nature,1997,386(6626):698- 702.
[28] 崔林丽,史军,杨引明,范文文.中国东部植被NDVI对气温和降水的旬响应特征.地理学报,2009,64(7):850- 860.
[29] 王茜,陈莹,阮玺睿,李小冬,王小利,史健宗,王志伟.1982- 2012年中国NDVI变化及其与气候因子的关系.草地学报,2017,25(4):691- 700.
[30] 蒲蕾,任志远.陕西省不同地区NDVI变化与气候因子的关系及响应研究.水土保持通报,2013,33(2):265- 269,275- 275.
[31] 赵海迪,刘世梁,董世魁,苏旭坤,张翔.基于植被覆盖度的藏羚羊栖息地时空变化研究.生态学报,2014,34(12):3285- 3292.
[32] Zhang D J,Jia Q Q,Xu X,Yao S B,Chen H B,Hou X H.Contribution of ecological policies to vegetation restoration:a case study from Wuqi county in Shaanxi province,China.Land Use Policy,2018,73:400- 411.
[2] 万红莲,王静.多尺度下宝鸡地区干旱动态格局演变及其与植被覆盖的关系.生态学报,2018,38(19):6941- 6952.
[3] Mao D H,Wang Z M,Luo L,Ren C Y.Integrating AVHRR and MODIS data to monitor NDVI changes and their relationships with climatic parameters in Northeast China.International Journal of Applied Earth Observation and Geoinformation,2012,18:528- 536.
[4] Potter C S,Brooks V.Global analysis of empirical relations between annual climate and seasonality of NDVI.International Journal of Remote Sensing,1998,19(15):2921- 2948.
[5] 张惜伟,汪季,高永,吴领弟,丁延龙,宝成,阿如汗.近15年呼伦贝尔沙质草原植被覆盖变化对气候因子的响应.草地学报,2018,26(1):62- 69.
[6] Wang T,Lu Y.Spatial and temporal changes in inter-annual and seasonal NDVI in the Qinling mountains of China.IOP Conference Series:Earth and Environmental Science,2017,94:012-034.
[7] 王静,万红莲,张翀.2001- 2013年宝鸡地区植被NDVI对气温和降水量的季节响应特征.水土保持通报,2017,37(5):235- 240.
[8] 武正丽,贾文雄,赵珍,张禹舜,刘亚荣,陈京华.2000- 2012年祁连山植被覆盖变化及其与气候因子的相关性.干旱区地理,2015,38(6):1241- 1252.
[9] 宋富强,康慕谊,杨朋,陈雅如,刘阳,邢开雄.陕北地区GIMMS、SPOT-VGT和MODIS归一化植被指数的差异分析.北京林业大学学报,2010,32(4):72- 80.
[10] 谢建群,欧阳禹杰,陈秀芸,赵美霞,陈特固.18802015年汕头降水量变化趋势与全球气候变暖的关系.热带地理,2016,36(6):895- 900.
[11] Tucker C J.Red and photographic infrared linear combinations for monitoring vegetation.Remote Sensing of Environment,1979,8(2):127- 150.
[12] 成方妍,刘世梁,尹艺洁,吕一河,安南南,刘昕明.基于MODIS NDVI的广西沿海植被动态及其主要驱动因素.生态学报,2017,37(3):788- 797.
[13] 何艳芳,张喨.陕西省1980- 2006年气候变化时空特征研究.干旱区资源与环境,2011,25(11):59- 63.
[14] 杜华明,延军平.四川省气候变化特征与旱涝区域响应.资源科学,2013,35(12):2491- 2500.
[15] 张善红,白红英,高翔,贺映娜,任园园.太白山植被指数时空变化及其对区域温度的响应.自然资源学报,2011,26(8):1377- 1386.
[16] 徐振锋.川西亚高山林线交错带典型优势物种物候与生长对模拟增温的初期响应[D].雅安:四川农业大学,2008.
[17] 周靖靖.刺槐林叶面积指数特征及其遥感影像反演[D].杨凌:西北农林科技大学,2014.
[18] 张君,延军平.1982- 2013年陕西不同植被类型NDVI变化特征分析.干旱区资源与环境,2017,31(4):86- 92.
[19] 李登科,范建忠,王娟.陕西省植被覆盖度变化特征及其成因.应用生态学报,2010,21(11):2896- 2903.
[20] Theil H.A rankinvariant method of linear and polynomial regression analysis I.Proceedings of the Koninklijke Nederlandse Akademie Wetenschappen,Series A Mathematical Sciences,1950,53:386- 392.
[21] Sen P K.Estimates of the regression coefficient based on Kendall′s tau.Journal of the American Statistical Association,1968,63(324):1379- 1389.
[22] Kendall M G.Rank Correlation Methods.London:Griffin,1970.
[23] 张翀,任志远,韦振锋.近12年来黄土高原植被覆盖对年内水热条件的响应.资源科学,2013,35(10):2017- 2023.
[24] 任国玉,郭军,徐铭志,初子莹,张莉,邹旭凯,李庆祥,刘小宁.近50年中国地面气候变化基本特征.气象学报,2005,63(6):942- 956.
[25] 《气候变化国家评估报告》编写委员会.气候变化国家评估报告.北京:科学出版社,2007.
[26] 陈媛,王文圣,王国庆,王顺久.金沙江流域气温降水变化特性分析.高原山地气象研究,2010,30(4):51- 56.
[27] Myneni R B,Keeling C D,Tucker C J,Asrar G,Nemani R R.Increased plant growth in the northern high latitudes from 1981 to 1991.Nature,1997,386(6626):698- 702.
[28] 崔林丽,史军,杨引明,范文文.中国东部植被NDVI对气温和降水的旬响应特征.地理学报,2009,64(7):850- 860.
[29] 王茜,陈莹,阮玺睿,李小冬,王小利,史健宗,王志伟.1982- 2012年中国NDVI变化及其与气候因子的关系.草地学报,2017,25(4):691- 700.
[30] 蒲蕾,任志远.陕西省不同地区NDVI变化与气候因子的关系及响应研究.水土保持通报,2013,33(2):265- 269,275- 275.
[31] 赵海迪,刘世梁,董世魁,苏旭坤,张翔.基于植被覆盖度的藏羚羊栖息地时空变化研究.生态学报,2014,34(12):3285- 3292.
[32] Zhang D J,Jia Q Q,Xu X,Yao S B,Chen H B,Hou X H.Contribution of ecological policies to vegetation restoration:a case study from Wuqi county in Shaanxi province,China.Land Use Policy,2018,73:400- 411.