江淮地区致灾强对流天气流型配置及层结特征分析
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摘要
利用常规高空、地面观测资料,对2000-2010年发生在江淮地区的500余次致灾强对流天气过程进行天气综合分析,结合强对流天气发生发展过程中环流形势演变及天气系统空间配置,提炼关键环流特征,建立江淮地区致灾强对流天气发生时对应的5种典型天气型:高空槽前型、冷涡(槽)后型、副高边缘型、副高控制型和热带系统型。基于上述分型,对江淮地区不同天气型下致灾强对流天气类型发生频率的统计分析表明,副高边缘型是江淮地区发生短时强降水、雷暴大风及龙卷频次最多的天气型,特别是龙卷天气在这种背景下发生频率达到66%;冰雹天气最易出现在冷涡(槽)后天气型下,55%冰雹天气发生在冷涡(槽)后天气背景下;而与热带系统相联系的天气型下,江淮地区多见短时强降水天气,发生冰雹的概率很小。通过对比分析不同天气型下各类强对流天气发生前合成探空特征讨论不同类型强对流天气发生的对流环境差异。
Using the conventional high,surface observations data,the key circulation characteristics are refined based on weather comprehensive analysis on more than 500 disaster-induced convection cases occurring in Jianghuai area,especially on the evolution of circulation situation and spatial configuration of weather system. Five typical synoptic conceptual models are summed established: before upper trough,after cold vortex or trough,subtropical high edge,subtropical high control and tropical system. Further,frequency of different types of convective weather under different synoptic background was studied. The most frequent occurrence of severe short-term precipitation,thunderstorm wind and tornado in the background of subtropical high edge type,especially the occurrence frequency of tornado weather reached 66%. Hail is most likely to occur in the weather pattern after cold vortex or trough,and 55% of hail occurs in the weather background after cold vortex or trough. Under the weather pattern associated with the tropical system,severe short-term precipitation most frequently occurrs in jianghuai areas,while the probability of hails is very small. The difference of convective environment before different types of severe convection weather occurred is discussed by comparing the synthetical sounding characteristics under different synoptic background.
Using the conventional high,surface observations data,the key circulation characteristics are refined based on weather comprehensive analysis on more than 500 disaster-induced convection cases occurring in Jianghuai area,especially on the evolution of circulation situation and spatial configuration of weather system. Five typical synoptic conceptual models are summed established: before upper trough,after cold vortex or trough,subtropical high edge,subtropical high control and tropical system. Further,frequency of different types of convective weather under different synoptic background was studied. The most frequent occurrence of severe short-term precipitation,thunderstorm wind and tornado in the background of subtropical high edge type,especially the occurrence frequency of tornado weather reached 66%. Hail is most likely to occur in the weather pattern after cold vortex or trough,and 55% of hail occurs in the weather background after cold vortex or trough. Under the weather pattern associated with the tropical system,severe short-term precipitation most frequently occurrs in jianghuai areas,while the probability of hails is very small. The difference of convective environment before different types of severe convection weather occurred is discussed by comparing the synthetical sounding characteristics under different synoptic background.
引文
[1]王秀荣,毛卫星,郭进修. 2004年主汛期我国强对流天气灾害统计特征[J].自然灾害学报,2007,16(2):27-30.
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[4]郑永光,朱文剑,姚姌,等.风速等级标准与2016年6月23日阜宁龙卷强度估计[J].气象,2016,42(1):1289-1303.
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[7]伍志芳,庞古乾,郭春迓,等.广东前汛期强对流天气分类流型及物理量阈值[J].自然灾害学报,2016,25(3):166-174.
[8]杨露华,尹红萍,王慧,等.近10年上海地区强对流天气特征统计分析[J].大气科学研究与应用,2007,2:84-91.
[9]张一平,吴蓁,苏爱芳,等.基于流型识别和物理量要素分析河南强对流天气特征[J].高原气象,2013,32(5):1492-1502.
[10]郑媛媛,姚晨,郝莹,等.不同类型大尺度环流背景下强对流天气的短时临近预报预警研究[J].气象,2011,37(7):795-801.
[11] Weisman M L and Rotunno R.“A theory for strong long-lived squall lines”revisited[J]. J. Atmos. Sci.,2004,61(4):361-382.
[12] Mc Caul E W and Weisman M L. Simulations of shallow supercell storms in landfalling hurricane environments[J]. Mon. Wea.Rev.,1996,124(3):408-429.
[13]郑媛媛,张雪晨,朱红芳,等.东北冷涡对江淮飑线生成的影响研究[J].高原气象,2014,33(1):261-269.
[14]杨程,宋金杰,王元,等.热带气旋影响下江苏强对流天气指数分析[J].热带气象学报,2014,30(3):559-566.
[15]曾明剑,张备,吴海英,等.基于接近度概念的强对流天气预报方法研究[J].高原气象,2015,34(5):1357-1368.
[2]田红.江淮地区极端气候事件的时空变化特征[J].自然灾害学报,2007,16(6):36-41.
[3]范雯杰,俞小鼎.中国龙卷的时空分布特征[J].气象,2015,41(7):793-805.
[4]郑永光,朱文剑,姚姌,等.风速等级标准与2016年6月23日阜宁龙卷强度估计[J].气象,2016,42(1):1289-1303.
[5] Maddox R A,Chappell C F,Hoxit L R. Synoptic and mesoaspects of flash flooding events[J]. Bull Amer. Meteor. Soc.,1979,60:115-123.
[6]丁一汇,李鸿洲,章名立,等.我国飑线发生条件的研究[J].大气科学,1982,6(1):18-27.
[7]伍志芳,庞古乾,郭春迓,等.广东前汛期强对流天气分类流型及物理量阈值[J].自然灾害学报,2016,25(3):166-174.
[8]杨露华,尹红萍,王慧,等.近10年上海地区强对流天气特征统计分析[J].大气科学研究与应用,2007,2:84-91.
[9]张一平,吴蓁,苏爱芳,等.基于流型识别和物理量要素分析河南强对流天气特征[J].高原气象,2013,32(5):1492-1502.
[10]郑媛媛,姚晨,郝莹,等.不同类型大尺度环流背景下强对流天气的短时临近预报预警研究[J].气象,2011,37(7):795-801.
[11] Weisman M L and Rotunno R.“A theory for strong long-lived squall lines”revisited[J]. J. Atmos. Sci.,2004,61(4):361-382.
[12] Mc Caul E W and Weisman M L. Simulations of shallow supercell storms in landfalling hurricane environments[J]. Mon. Wea.Rev.,1996,124(3):408-429.
[13]郑媛媛,张雪晨,朱红芳,等.东北冷涡对江淮飑线生成的影响研究[J].高原气象,2014,33(1):261-269.
[14]杨程,宋金杰,王元,等.热带气旋影响下江苏强对流天气指数分析[J].热带气象学报,2014,30(3):559-566.
[15]曾明剑,张备,吴海英,等.基于接近度概念的强对流天气预报方法研究[J].高原气象,2015,34(5):1357-1368.