石家庄市气象要素对成人哮喘住院人数的影响
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摘要
为研究气象要素对成人哮喘住院人数的影响,利用2013年1月1日至2016年12月31日石家庄市成人哮喘医保住院资料及气象、环境观测站数据,采用广义相加模型(GAM),在控制了时间趋势、节假日效应、空气污染等混杂因素后,分析气象要素与成人哮喘住院人数的暴露—反应关系。结果表明:各气象要素对成人哮喘住院人数的影响差异明显,日均气温(T)、日最高气温(Tmax)、日最低气温(Tmin)每上升1℃,成人哮喘住院风险分别减少0. 7%、0. 6%、0. 7%;日均气压(P)每上升1 h Pa,成人哮喘住院风险增加0. 6%;日均风速(Ws)每增大1 m·s-1,成人哮喘住院风险减少5. 2%;当相对湿度RH <24%时,相对湿度每增加1%,成人哮喘住院风险减少3. 4%;当RH≥92%时,相对湿度每增加1%,成人哮喘住院风险增加12. 5%;气温、气压、风速对成人哮喘住院人数的的影响均在当天或滞后1天(lag0—1)效应最大;根据各气象要素影响特点,可为健康气象预报服务及公众防御提供依据。
To investigate the impact of meteorological elements on adult asthma hospitalization,based on the adult asthma hospitalization records of Shijiazhuang Medical Insurance Center from January 1,2013 to December 31,2016,and the meteorological and environmental observations during the same periods,the generalized additive model( GAM) was used to analyze the exposure-response relationship between the meteorological elements and the number of adult asthma hospitalization after controlling the factors such as long-term trend,holiday effects,and air pollution.The results show that different elements have different impacts on the number of adult asthma hospitalization. With 1℃ increasing in daily mean air temperature( T),daily maximum temperature( Tmax),and daily minimum temperature( Tmin),the risk of adult asthma hospitalization decreased by 0. 7%,0. 6%,and 0. 7%,respectively. The risk of adult asthma hospitalization increased by 0. 6% with the increase of daily mean air pressure( P) by 1 hPa. The risk of adult asthma hospitalization decreased by 5. 2% with 1 m·s-1 increasing in daily mean wind speed( Ws). When relative humidity( RH) was less than 24%,the risk of adult asthma hospitalization reduced by 3. 4 % with RH increasing 1%. The risk of adult asthma hospitalization increased by 12. 5% with RH increasing 1% when RH was greater than or equal to 92%. The effect of T,P,and Wson the number of adult asthma hospitalization was strongest on the same day or on the followed day. Impacting characteristics of meteorological elements can provide a basis for healthy weather forecasting services and public defenses.
To investigate the impact of meteorological elements on adult asthma hospitalization,based on the adult asthma hospitalization records of Shijiazhuang Medical Insurance Center from January 1,2013 to December 31,2016,and the meteorological and environmental observations during the same periods,the generalized additive model( GAM) was used to analyze the exposure-response relationship between the meteorological elements and the number of adult asthma hospitalization after controlling the factors such as long-term trend,holiday effects,and air pollution.The results show that different elements have different impacts on the number of adult asthma hospitalization. With 1℃ increasing in daily mean air temperature( T),daily maximum temperature( Tmax),and daily minimum temperature( Tmin),the risk of adult asthma hospitalization decreased by 0. 7%,0. 6%,and 0. 7%,respectively. The risk of adult asthma hospitalization increased by 0. 6% with the increase of daily mean air pressure( P) by 1 hPa. The risk of adult asthma hospitalization decreased by 5. 2% with 1 m·s-1 increasing in daily mean wind speed( Ws). When relative humidity( RH) was less than 24%,the risk of adult asthma hospitalization reduced by 3. 4 % with RH increasing 1%. The risk of adult asthma hospitalization increased by 12. 5% with RH increasing 1% when RH was greater than or equal to 92%. The effect of T,P,and Wson the number of adult asthma hospitalization was strongest on the same day or on the followed day. Impacting characteristics of meteorological elements can provide a basis for healthy weather forecasting services and public defenses.
引文
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[17]张青，李颖，骆月珍，等．杭州地区人体舒适度对自然死亡人数的影响[J]．气象与环境学报，2017,33(3):101-106
[18]蒋艳峰，王丽萍，尹岭，等．北京市气温对腹痛急诊日就诊人数的影响[J]．兰州大学学报:自然科学版，2015,51(1):103-108.
[19]付桂琴，刘华悦，贾俊妹．石家庄地区气温对慢性阻塞性肺病住院人数的影响[J]．气象与环境学报，2017,33(2):101-106.
[20]党冰．北京夏季三种天气敏感性疾病的气象诱因及预测研究[D]．兰州:兰州大学，2014.
[21]李雪源，景元书，吴凡，等．南京市呼吸系统疾病死亡率与气象要素的关系及预测[J]．气象与环境学报，2012,28(5):46-48.
[22]李英，李月丛，吕素青，等．石家庄市空气花粉散布规律及与气候因子的关系[J]．生态学报，2014,34(6):1575-1586.
[23]张书余．医疗气象预报[M]．北京:气象出版社，2010,176.
[24]王敏珍，郑山，王式功，等．气温与湿度的交互作用对呼吸系统疾病的影响[J]．中国环境科学，2016,36(2):581-588.
[25] Barreca A I. Climate change,humidity,and mortality in the United States[J]. Journal of Environmental Economics and Management,2012,63(1):19-34.
[26] Lin S,Luo M,Walker R J,et al. Extreme high temperatures and hospital admissions for respiratory and cardiovascular diseases[J]. Epidemiology,2009,20(5):738-746.
[27] Anderson G B,Dominici F,Wang Y,et al. Heat-related emergency hospitalizations for respiratory diseases in the Medicare population[J]. American Journal of Respiratory and Critical Care Medicine,2013,187(10):1098-1103.
[2] Song W J,Kang MG,Chang Y S,et al. Epidemiology of adult asthma in Asia:toward a better understanding[J]. Asia Pacific Allergy,2014,4(2):75-85.
[3] Nastos P T,Paliatsos A G,Papadopoulos M,et al. The effect of weather variability on pediatric asthma admissions in Athens,Greece[J]. Journal of Asthma,2008,45(1):59-65.
[4] Makra L,Puskás J,Matyasovszky I,et al. Weather elements,chemical air pollutants and airborne pollen influencing asthma emergency room visits in Szeged,Hungary:Performance of two objective weather classifications[J]. International Journal of Biometeorology,2015,59(9):1269-1289.
[5]岳海燕，申双和．呼吸道和心脑血管疾病与气象条件关系的研究进展[J]．气象与环境学报，2009,25(2):57-61.
[6]牟喆，彭丽，杨丹丹，等．上海市天气和污染对儿童哮喘就诊人次的影响[J]．中国卫生统计，2014,31(5):827-829.
[7] Buckley J P,Richardson D B. Seasonal modification of the association between temperature and adult emergency department visits for asthma:a case-crossover study[J]. Environmental Health,2012,11:55.
[8] Abe T,Tokuda Y,Ohde S,et al. The relationship of short-term air pollution and weather to ED visits for asthma in Japan[J]. The American Journal of Emergency Medicine,2009,27(2):153-159.
[9] Kljakovic M,Salmond C. A model of the relationship between consultation behaviour for asthma in a general practice and the weather[J]. Climate Research,1998,10(2):109-113.
[10]屈芳．环境气象因素对呼吸系统疾病影响的研究进展[J]．气象科技进展，2013,3(6):35-44.
[11] D'Amato G,Liccardi G,D'Amato M,et al. Outdoor air pollution,climatic changes and allergic bronchial asthma[J]. European Respiratory Journal,2002,20(3):763-776.
[12] Makra L,Tombácz S,Bálint B,et al. Influences of meteorological parameters and biological and chemical air pollutants on the incidence of asthma and rhinitis[J].Climate Research,2008,37(1):99-119.
[13] Cai J,Zhao A,Zhao J Z,et al. Acute effects of air pollution on asthma hospitalization in Shanghai,China[J].Environmental Pollution,2014,191:139-144.
[14]张文增，甄国新，陈东妮，等．北京市顺义区大气污染物对呼吸系统疾病门诊量的影响[J]．中国卫生统计，2017,34(2):275-279.
[15]陈常中，陈星霖，魏晟．流行病学数据分析与易侕统计软件实现[M]．上海:上海科学技术出版社，2016.
[16]王敏珍，郑山，王式功，等．兰州市大气气态污染物与呼吸系统疾病日入院人数的时间序列分析[J]．卫生研究，2012,41(5):771-775.
[17]张青，李颖，骆月珍，等．杭州地区人体舒适度对自然死亡人数的影响[J]．气象与环境学报，2017,33(3):101-106
[18]蒋艳峰，王丽萍，尹岭，等．北京市气温对腹痛急诊日就诊人数的影响[J]．兰州大学学报:自然科学版，2015,51(1):103-108.
[19]付桂琴，刘华悦，贾俊妹．石家庄地区气温对慢性阻塞性肺病住院人数的影响[J]．气象与环境学报，2017,33(2):101-106.
[20]党冰．北京夏季三种天气敏感性疾病的气象诱因及预测研究[D]．兰州:兰州大学，2014.
[21]李雪源，景元书，吴凡，等．南京市呼吸系统疾病死亡率与气象要素的关系及预测[J]．气象与环境学报，2012,28(5):46-48.
[22]李英，李月丛，吕素青，等．石家庄市空气花粉散布规律及与气候因子的关系[J]．生态学报，2014,34(6):1575-1586.
[23]张书余．医疗气象预报[M]．北京:气象出版社，2010,176.
[24]王敏珍，郑山，王式功，等．气温与湿度的交互作用对呼吸系统疾病的影响[J]．中国环境科学，2016,36(2):581-588.
[25] Barreca A I. Climate change,humidity,and mortality in the United States[J]. Journal of Environmental Economics and Management,2012,63(1):19-34.
[26] Lin S,Luo M,Walker R J,et al. Extreme high temperatures and hospital admissions for respiratory and cardiovascular diseases[J]. Epidemiology,2009,20(5):738-746.
[27] Anderson G B,Dominici F,Wang Y,et al. Heat-related emergency hospitalizations for respiratory diseases in the Medicare population[J]. American Journal of Respiratory and Critical Care Medicine,2013,187(10):1098-1103.
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