营口市水稻时空分布特征及驱动因素分析
|
摘要
随着人类工业化进程,近百年来全球变暖情况日益严峻,水稻产量受到严重冲击。水稻作为我国主要粮食作物与人民饮食直接相关,因此研究影响水稻产量的驱动因子并寻找有效措施具有重要意义。本文选取1990年与2017年Landsat影像,通过面向对象的分类方法提取营口市的土地利用类型,分析水稻种植区的时空变化,并探究气候因子与经济因子对水稻产量的影响。主要结论如下:(1)营口市水稻种植区主要分布在北部平原。近三十年,水稻种植面积缩减,转变为人工鱼塘;(2)水稻总产量与化肥折纯投入、水稻播种面积呈极显著正相关,适度增加化肥用量和增加水稻种植面积对增加水稻产量有积极作用;(3)水稻总产量与气候因子呈现不显著相关,但其作用依旧不可忽视;(4)高温热害会导致水稻产量下降,但适度的增温有助于产量提高。
With the progress of human industrialization, global warming has become increasingly severe in the past 100 years,and rice production has been severely impacted. As the staple crops in China, rice is directly related to people's diet. Therefore,it's significant to study the driving factors affecting rice yield and find solutions. This paper selects the Landsat images from 1990 and 2017 to extract the land use types in Yingkou City through object-oriented classification method and analyzes the spatial and temporal changes of rice planting areas, then explores the effects of climatic factors and economic factors on rice yield. The main conclusions are as follows:(1) The rice growing areas in Yingkou City are mainly distributed in the northern plain. In the past three decades, rice planting area has been reduced and converted into artificial fish ponds.(2) The total rice yield was significantly positively correlated with the chemical fertilizer input and rice planting area; moderately increasing the chemical fertilizer amount and increasing the rice planting area had a positive effect on increasing rice yield.(3) The total rice yield is not significantly related to the climatic factors, but its role can't be ignored.(4)High temperature weather will cause rice yield to decline, but moderate warming will help increase yield.
With the progress of human industrialization, global warming has become increasingly severe in the past 100 years,and rice production has been severely impacted. As the staple crops in China, rice is directly related to people's diet. Therefore,it's significant to study the driving factors affecting rice yield and find solutions. This paper selects the Landsat images from 1990 and 2017 to extract the land use types in Yingkou City through object-oriented classification method and analyzes the spatial and temporal changes of rice planting areas, then explores the effects of climatic factors and economic factors on rice yield. The main conclusions are as follows:(1) The rice growing areas in Yingkou City are mainly distributed in the northern plain. In the past three decades, rice planting area has been reduced and converted into artificial fish ponds.(2) The total rice yield was significantly positively correlated with the chemical fertilizer input and rice planting area; moderately increasing the chemical fertilizer amount and increasing the rice planting area had a positive effect on increasing rice yield.(3) The total rice yield is not significantly related to the climatic factors, but its role can't be ignored.(4)High temperature weather will cause rice yield to decline, but moderate warming will help increase yield.
引文
[1]郭建平.气候变化对中国农业生产的影响研究进展[J].应用气象学报，2015,26(01):1-11.
[2]宁晓菊，秦耀辰，等.60年来中国农业水热气候条件的时空变化[J].地理学报，2015,70(03):364-379.
[3]韩芳玉，张俊飚，等.气候变化对中国水稻产量及其区域差异性的影响[J].生态与农村环境学报，2019,(03):283-289.
[4]周斌.2017年辽宁省玉米生长发育气候条件评价[A].中国气象学会.第35届中国气象学会年会S5气候变暖背景下干旱灾害形成机制变化与监测预测及其影响评估[C].中国气象学会：中国气象学会，2018:3.
[5]李欣伦，屈晓泽，李伟彤，等.有机肥与化肥配施对黑土理化性质及玉米产量的影响[J].国土与自然资源研究，2017,(04):45-48.
[6]韩明亮.基于GIS和土地质量地球化学数据的水稻种植适宜性评价---以安徽省青阳县为例[J].中国生态农业学报（中英文），2019,27(04):591-600.
[7]王连喜，任景全，李琪.未来气候变化情景下江苏水稻高温热害模拟研究Ⅱ：孕穗-抽穗期水稻对高温热害的适应性分析[J].中国农业气象，2014,35(02):206-213.
[8]Tubiello F N,Donatelli M,Rosenzweig C,et al.Effects of climate change and elevated CO2on cropping systems:model predictions at two Italian locations.Eur J Agron,2000,(13):179-189.
[9]Mo X G,Liu S X,Lin Z H,et al.Regional crop yield,water consumption and water use efficiency and their responses to climate change in the North China Plain.Agric Ecosyst Environ,2009,134(1/2):67-78.
[10]孙擎，杨再强，等.水稻格点作物模型在中国区域的不确定性评估[J].中国农业气象，2019,40(03):135-148.
[11]左慧婷，娄运生，等.不同气候带典型区域水稻产量主控气候因子分析及预测[J].自然灾害学报，2018,27(05):114-125.
[12]周曙东，朱红根.气候变化对中国南方水稻产量的经济影响及其适应策略[J].中国人口·资源与环境，2010,20(10):152-157.
[13]张春华，李修楠，吴孟泉，等.基于Landsat 8 OLI数据与面向对象分类的昆嵛山地区土地覆盖信息提取[J].地理科学，2018,38(11):1904-1913.
[14]Cui Jin,Xiangming Xiao,Jinwei Dong,et al.Mapping paddy rice distribution using multi-temporal Landsat imagery in the Sanjiang Plain,northeast China[J].Frontiers of Earth Science,2016,10(1).
[15]胡砚霞，黄进良，等.2000~2015年丹江口库区植被覆盖时空变化趋势及其成因分析[J].长江流域资源与环境，2018,27(04):862-872.
[2]宁晓菊，秦耀辰，等.60年来中国农业水热气候条件的时空变化[J].地理学报，2015,70(03):364-379.
[3]韩芳玉，张俊飚，等.气候变化对中国水稻产量及其区域差异性的影响[J].生态与农村环境学报，2019,(03):283-289.
[4]周斌.2017年辽宁省玉米生长发育气候条件评价[A].中国气象学会.第35届中国气象学会年会S5气候变暖背景下干旱灾害形成机制变化与监测预测及其影响评估[C].中国气象学会：中国气象学会，2018:3.
[5]李欣伦，屈晓泽，李伟彤，等.有机肥与化肥配施对黑土理化性质及玉米产量的影响[J].国土与自然资源研究，2017,(04):45-48.
[6]韩明亮.基于GIS和土地质量地球化学数据的水稻种植适宜性评价---以安徽省青阳县为例[J].中国生态农业学报（中英文），2019,27(04):591-600.
[7]王连喜，任景全，李琪.未来气候变化情景下江苏水稻高温热害模拟研究Ⅱ：孕穗-抽穗期水稻对高温热害的适应性分析[J].中国农业气象，2014,35(02):206-213.
[8]Tubiello F N,Donatelli M,Rosenzweig C,et al.Effects of climate change and elevated CO2on cropping systems:model predictions at two Italian locations.Eur J Agron,2000,(13):179-189.
[9]Mo X G,Liu S X,Lin Z H,et al.Regional crop yield,water consumption and water use efficiency and their responses to climate change in the North China Plain.Agric Ecosyst Environ,2009,134(1/2):67-78.
[10]孙擎，杨再强，等.水稻格点作物模型在中国区域的不确定性评估[J].中国农业气象，2019,40(03):135-148.
[11]左慧婷，娄运生，等.不同气候带典型区域水稻产量主控气候因子分析及预测[J].自然灾害学报，2018,27(05):114-125.
[12]周曙东，朱红根.气候变化对中国南方水稻产量的经济影响及其适应策略[J].中国人口·资源与环境，2010,20(10):152-157.
[13]张春华，李修楠，吴孟泉，等.基于Landsat 8 OLI数据与面向对象分类的昆嵛山地区土地覆盖信息提取[J].地理科学，2018,38(11):1904-1913.
[14]Cui Jin,Xiangming Xiao,Jinwei Dong,et al.Mapping paddy rice distribution using multi-temporal Landsat imagery in the Sanjiang Plain,northeast China[J].Frontiers of Earth Science,2016,10(1).
[15]胡砚霞，黄进良，等.2000~2015年丹江口库区植被覆盖时空变化趋势及其成因分析[J].长江流域资源与环境，2018,27(04):862-872.