贸易便利化对中国丝绸出口的影响——来自中国与“一带一路”贸易伙伴间的经验证据
|
摘要
在构建贸易便利化指数的基础上,利用"一带一路"倡议58个伙伴与中国2006—2017年的面板数据,定量研究了前者贸易便利化对后者丝绸出口贸易的影响机制。结果显示,在样本机制中,贸易便利化指数的影响效应不仅为最正显著并呈正相关,而且经一系列稳健性检验还稳定可靠。此外,对于该机制的正"外部经济性"特征表现,"一带一路"伙伴的GDP亦非常显著,人口量一定显著;中国与"一带一路"伙伴的接壤、签订FTA,相对于双方的相应非接壤、未签订FTA,对该机制的效应亦分别正显著;而双方间地理距离的影响效应仍远未显示既有文献中"距离在消亡"现象。基于研究结论,提出了推动该机制发展的相关借鉴。
Quantitative research was made on the influencing mechanism of trade facilitation of 58 partners along the "Belt and Road" route on Chinese silk exports using their panel data from 2006 to 2017 on the basis of constructing the trade facilitation index. The results show that in the sample mechanism, the impact effect of the trade facilitation index is not only most significant and in positive correlation, but also turns to be robust and reliable via a series of robustness tests. In addition, for the positive "external economic" characteristics of the mechanism, the GDP of partners of the "Belt and Road" is also very significant, and their population is significant as well; that China borders have singed FTA with the partners is also significant to the effect of the mechanism. However, the effect of geographical distance between the two parties does not show the phenomenon of "distance in extinction" stated in the existing literatures. Based on the research conclusions, relevant references for promoting the development of this mechanism are proposed.
Quantitative research was made on the influencing mechanism of trade facilitation of 58 partners along the "Belt and Road" route on Chinese silk exports using their panel data from 2006 to 2017 on the basis of constructing the trade facilitation index. The results show that in the sample mechanism, the impact effect of the trade facilitation index is not only most significant and in positive correlation, but also turns to be robust and reliable via a series of robustness tests. In addition, for the positive "external economic" characteristics of the mechanism, the GDP of partners of the "Belt and Road" is also very significant, and their population is significant as well; that China borders have singed FTA with the partners is also significant to the effect of the mechanism. However, the effect of geographical distance between the two parties does not show the phenomenon of "distance in extinction" stated in the existing literatures. Based on the research conclusions, relevant references for promoting the development of this mechanism are proposed.
引文
[1]WALKENHORST P,YASUI T.Quantitative assessment of the benefits of trade facilitation [J].International Trade,2009,2(3):191-220.
[2]WILSON,JOHN S,MANN.Trade facilitation and economic development:measuring the impact [J].Social Science Electronic Publishing,2003.
[3]孙林,徐旭霏.东盟贸易便利化对中国制造业产品出口影响的实证分析[J].国际贸易问题,2011(8):101-109.SUN Lin,XU Xufei.Empirical analysis on impact of ASEAN trade facilitation on Chinese manufactured goods export growth [J].Journal of International Trade,2011(8):101-109.
[4]方晓丽,朱明侠.中国及东盟各国贸易便利化程度测算及对出口影响的实证研究[J].国际贸易问题,2013(9):68-73.FANG Xiaoli,ZHU Mingxia.Empirical study on degree of trade facilitation of CAFTA and its effect on export [J].Journal of International Trade,2013(9):68-73.
[5]WILSON J S,MANN C L,OTSUKI T.Assessing the benefits of trade facilitation:a global perspective [J].World Economy,2005,28(6):841-871.
[6]JOHN Arnold.The role of trade facilitation in export growth [J].South Asia's Growth and Regional Integration,2007,1(1):191-235.
[7]SHEPHERD B,WILSON J S.Trade facilitation in ASEAN member countries:measuring progress and assessing priorities [J].Journal of Asian Economics,2009,20(4):367-383.
[8]任祎卓,顾国达.美国经济波动对中国丝绸出口贸易的影响[J].蚕业科学,2016,42(3):525-531.REN Yizhuo,GU Guoda.Influence of the united states economic fluctuation on China's silk export trade [J].Science of Sericulture,2016,42(3):525-531.
[9]霍尚一,林坚.中国丝绸出口贸易影响因素的实证分析[J].蚕业科学,2008,34(3):556-561.HUO Shangyi,LIN Jian.An empirical analysis of influential factors on silk export trade in China [J].Science of Sericulture,2008,34(3):556-561.
[10]林高榜,吴豪翔,闵思佳.加入WTO以后影响中国生丝出口因素的实证研究[J].蚕业科学,2006,32(4):568-572.LIN Gaobang,WU Haoxiang,MIN Sijia.Empirical studies on the influencing elements of raw silk export of China after entering WTO[J].Science of Sericulture,2006,32(4):568-572.
[11]WILSON J S,MANN C L,OTSUKI T.Trade facilitation and economic development:a new approach to quantifying the impact [J].World Bank Economic Review,2003,17(3):367-389.
[12]谭晶荣,潘华曦.贸易便利化对中国农产品出口的影响研究:基于丝绸之路沿线国家的实证分析[J].国际贸易问题,2016(5):39-49.TAN Jingrong,PAN Huaxi.A study of the influence trade facilitation had on the export of Chinese agricultural products [J].Journal of International Trade,2016(5):39-49.
[13]宋伟良,贾秀录.贸易便利化对中国产品出口的影响研究:基于 G20 国家的计算[J].宏观经济研究,2018(11):102-115.SONG Weiliang,JIA Xiulu.A study on the impact of trade facilitation on Chinese product exports:based on calculations in G20 countries [J].Macroeconomics,2018(11):102-115.
[14]李辉,付华.“一带一路”背景下贸易便利化对我国出口贸易的影响研究:基于行业的实证分析[J].价格月刊,2017(6):49-55.LI Hui,FU Hua.Research on the impact of trade facilitation on China's export trade under the background of “One Belt and One Road”:based on industrial empirical analysis [J].Price Monthly,2017(6):49-55.
[15]TINBERGEN J.Shaping the world economy:an analysis of world trade flows [J].New York Twentieth Century Fund,1962(1):27-30.
[16]P?YH?NEN P.A tentative model for the volume of trade between countries [J].Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv,1963(90):93-100.
[17]林琦,欧思歆.“一带一路”沿线国家贸易便利化水平对中国出口影响的实证分析[J].数学的实践与认识,2018,48(23):59-68.LIN Qi,OU Sixin.Empirical analysis of the effects on the trade facilitation levels of countries along the “Belt and Road” on Chinese exports[J].Mathematics in Practice and Theory,2018,48(23):59-68.
[18]史本叶,张永亮.中国对外贸易成本分解与出口增长的二元边际[J].财经研究,2014,40(1):73-82.SHI Benye,ZHANG Yongliang.Decomposition of foreign trade costs and dual margins of export growth in China [J].Journal of Finance and Economics,2014,40(1):73-82.
[2]WILSON,JOHN S,MANN.Trade facilitation and economic development:measuring the impact [J].Social Science Electronic Publishing,2003.
[3]孙林,徐旭霏.东盟贸易便利化对中国制造业产品出口影响的实证分析[J].国际贸易问题,2011(8):101-109.SUN Lin,XU Xufei.Empirical analysis on impact of ASEAN trade facilitation on Chinese manufactured goods export growth [J].Journal of International Trade,2011(8):101-109.
[4]方晓丽,朱明侠.中国及东盟各国贸易便利化程度测算及对出口影响的实证研究[J].国际贸易问题,2013(9):68-73.FANG Xiaoli,ZHU Mingxia.Empirical study on degree of trade facilitation of CAFTA and its effect on export [J].Journal of International Trade,2013(9):68-73.
[5]WILSON J S,MANN C L,OTSUKI T.Assessing the benefits of trade facilitation:a global perspective [J].World Economy,2005,28(6):841-871.
[6]JOHN Arnold.The role of trade facilitation in export growth [J].South Asia's Growth and Regional Integration,2007,1(1):191-235.
[7]SHEPHERD B,WILSON J S.Trade facilitation in ASEAN member countries:measuring progress and assessing priorities [J].Journal of Asian Economics,2009,20(4):367-383.
[8]任祎卓,顾国达.美国经济波动对中国丝绸出口贸易的影响[J].蚕业科学,2016,42(3):525-531.REN Yizhuo,GU Guoda.Influence of the united states economic fluctuation on China's silk export trade [J].Science of Sericulture,2016,42(3):525-531.
[9]霍尚一,林坚.中国丝绸出口贸易影响因素的实证分析[J].蚕业科学,2008,34(3):556-561.HUO Shangyi,LIN Jian.An empirical analysis of influential factors on silk export trade in China [J].Science of Sericulture,2008,34(3):556-561.
[10]林高榜,吴豪翔,闵思佳.加入WTO以后影响中国生丝出口因素的实证研究[J].蚕业科学,2006,32(4):568-572.LIN Gaobang,WU Haoxiang,MIN Sijia.Empirical studies on the influencing elements of raw silk export of China after entering WTO[J].Science of Sericulture,2006,32(4):568-572.
[11]WILSON J S,MANN C L,OTSUKI T.Trade facilitation and economic development:a new approach to quantifying the impact [J].World Bank Economic Review,2003,17(3):367-389.
[12]谭晶荣,潘华曦.贸易便利化对中国农产品出口的影响研究:基于丝绸之路沿线国家的实证分析[J].国际贸易问题,2016(5):39-49.TAN Jingrong,PAN Huaxi.A study of the influence trade facilitation had on the export of Chinese agricultural products [J].Journal of International Trade,2016(5):39-49.
[13]宋伟良,贾秀录.贸易便利化对中国产品出口的影响研究:基于 G20 国家的计算[J].宏观经济研究,2018(11):102-115.SONG Weiliang,JIA Xiulu.A study on the impact of trade facilitation on Chinese product exports:based on calculations in G20 countries [J].Macroeconomics,2018(11):102-115.
[14]李辉,付华.“一带一路”背景下贸易便利化对我国出口贸易的影响研究:基于行业的实证分析[J].价格月刊,2017(6):49-55.LI Hui,FU Hua.Research on the impact of trade facilitation on China's export trade under the background of “One Belt and One Road”:based on industrial empirical analysis [J].Price Monthly,2017(6):49-55.
[15]TINBERGEN J.Shaping the world economy:an analysis of world trade flows [J].New York Twentieth Century Fund,1962(1):27-30.
[16]P?YH?NEN P.A tentative model for the volume of trade between countries [J].Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv,1963(90):93-100.
[17]林琦,欧思歆.“一带一路”沿线国家贸易便利化水平对中国出口影响的实证分析[J].数学的实践与认识,2018,48(23):59-68.LIN Qi,OU Sixin.Empirical analysis of the effects on the trade facilitation levels of countries along the “Belt and Road” on Chinese exports[J].Mathematics in Practice and Theory,2018,48(23):59-68.
[18]史本叶,张永亮.中国对外贸易成本分解与出口增长的二元边际[J].财经研究,2014,40(1):73-82.SHI Benye,ZHANG Yongliang.Decomposition of foreign trade costs and dual margins of export growth in China [J].Journal of Finance and Economics,2014,40(1):73-82.