2000—2016年中亚天山植被变化及气候分异研究
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摘要
利用MODIS-NDVI产品生成中亚天山2000—2016年植被覆盖度,利用线性回归法和偏相关法分析了中亚天山植被时空变化特征及驱动因子。结果表明:中亚天山植被生长及变化趋势具有显著的区域分异性,纬度分区上,中天山和北天山西部植被覆盖度较高的草原、农田和森林在2000—2016年呈现退化趋势;南天山和北天山东部植被覆盖度较低的荒漠、草原和灌丛在同期表现出改善趋势,而中国境内的东天山与境外的西天山相比具有较低的植被覆盖度以及总体改善的变化趋势。中亚天山气候在2000—2016年显示出"暖湿化"特征,温度升高幅度(5. 9%)远大于降水增加幅度(1. 3%),温度、降水与植被覆盖度的显著相关比例为18. 0%和42. 6%,降水是中亚天山植被变化的主要气候驱动因素。以巴音布鲁克草原为代表的东天山部分草原受到过度放牧的影响而退化严重,建议加强植被退化区的生态修复与保护力度。
The Tianshan Mountains plays a key role in the sustainable development of ecological environment in arid and semi-arid regions along the Silk Road Economic Belt as an important ecological shield connecting the Central Asia and Xinjiang,China. Previous studies indicated that the global warming led to a series of ecological problems in Tianshan,such as a decrease in snowfall rate,severe glacier melting,and significant grassland degradation.It has become an important and urgent task to monitor the dynamic changes of vegetation in the region and analyze its driving factors. Based on MODIS NDVI data,we calculated the Fractional Vegetation Coverage( FVC) of the Tianshan from 2000 to 2016 using the harmonic analysis of time series( HANTS) algorithm and the dimidiate pixel model. The linear regression and partial correlation analysis were used to map the tempo-spatial variations of FVC and to analyze the correlation results with the precipitation and temperature. The major conclusions were drawn as follows:( 1) The vegetation growth in Tianshan had significant regional differentiation,the mean FVC in the northern,central and southern part of Tianshan was 0. 37,0. 49 and 0. 26,respectively. In addition,the FVC value was0. 29 in the eastern Tianshan,which is inside China,and 0. 43 in the western Tianshan,which is outside China. The FVC was higher on northern slope and western part.( 2) There were 66. 8% of the vegetation pixels displayed in an improving trend. The farmland and forest with the highest FVC showed degradation trend with the area proportions of 66% and 53%,respectively. However,the shrub-desert and shrubland with the lowest FVC showed improving trend with the area proportions of 88% and 74%,respectively. Moreover,the most widely distributed grassland has an improvement ratio of 64%.( 3) The temperature and precipitation of Tianshan were increased by 0. 85 ℃and 1. 87 mm respectively during the time period from 2000 to 2016,which indicated equivalently an increment of6. 2% of the average temperature and an increment of 1. 4% of the precipitation,respectively.( 4) The correlation ratios of temperature and precipitation with the FVC were 18. 0% and 42. 6% respectively. The precipitation was the dominant factor affecting the change of vegetation in Tianshan.( 5) The vegetation in the typical regions like Bayinbuluke Grassland was greatly disturbed by overgrazing. We suggested that the ecological restoration in the vegetation degeneration area should be strengthened and the regional governments should make the reasonable plan for the sustainable tourism development.
The Tianshan Mountains plays a key role in the sustainable development of ecological environment in arid and semi-arid regions along the Silk Road Economic Belt as an important ecological shield connecting the Central Asia and Xinjiang,China. Previous studies indicated that the global warming led to a series of ecological problems in Tianshan,such as a decrease in snowfall rate,severe glacier melting,and significant grassland degradation.It has become an important and urgent task to monitor the dynamic changes of vegetation in the region and analyze its driving factors. Based on MODIS NDVI data,we calculated the Fractional Vegetation Coverage( FVC) of the Tianshan from 2000 to 2016 using the harmonic analysis of time series( HANTS) algorithm and the dimidiate pixel model. The linear regression and partial correlation analysis were used to map the tempo-spatial variations of FVC and to analyze the correlation results with the precipitation and temperature. The major conclusions were drawn as follows:( 1) The vegetation growth in Tianshan had significant regional differentiation,the mean FVC in the northern,central and southern part of Tianshan was 0. 37,0. 49 and 0. 26,respectively. In addition,the FVC value was0. 29 in the eastern Tianshan,which is inside China,and 0. 43 in the western Tianshan,which is outside China. The FVC was higher on northern slope and western part.( 2) There were 66. 8% of the vegetation pixels displayed in an improving trend. The farmland and forest with the highest FVC showed degradation trend with the area proportions of 66% and 53%,respectively. However,the shrub-desert and shrubland with the lowest FVC showed improving trend with the area proportions of 88% and 74%,respectively. Moreover,the most widely distributed grassland has an improvement ratio of 64%.( 3) The temperature and precipitation of Tianshan were increased by 0. 85 ℃and 1. 87 mm respectively during the time period from 2000 to 2016,which indicated equivalently an increment of6. 2% of the average temperature and an increment of 1. 4% of the precipitation,respectively.( 4) The correlation ratios of temperature and precipitation with the FVC were 18. 0% and 42. 6% respectively. The precipitation was the dominant factor affecting the change of vegetation in Tianshan.( 5) The vegetation in the typical regions like Bayinbuluke Grassland was greatly disturbed by overgrazing. We suggested that the ecological restoration in the vegetation degeneration area should be strengthened and the regional governments should make the reasonable plan for the sustainable tourism development.
引文
[1] SORG Annina,BOLCH Tobias,STOFFEL Markus,et al. Climate change impacts on glaciers and runoff in Tien Shan(Central Asia)[J]. Nature Climate Change,2012,2(10):725-731.
[2] LI Guoqiang,RAO Zhiguo,DUAN Yanwu,et al. Paleoenvironmental changes recorded in a luminescence dated loess/paleosol sequence from the Tianshan Mountains,arid central Asia,since the Penultimate Glaciation[J]. Earth and Planetary Science Letters,2016,448:1-12.
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[5] ZHANG Chi,LU Dengsheng,CHEN Xi,et al. The spatiotemporal patterns of vegetation coverage and biomass of the temperate deserts in Central Asia and their relationships with climate controls[J]. Remote Sensing of Environment,2016,175:271-281.
[6]李杨,刘艳,马丽云,等.天山北坡气候因子对植被影响的空间分异性研究[J].干旱区资源与环境,2011,25(7):91-95.[LI Yang,LIU Yan,MA Liyun,et al. Spatial variation of the vegetation effected by climatic factors in the north slope of Tianshan Mountains[J]. Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment,2011,25(7):91-95.]
[7]冯志敏,赵玲,安沙舟,等.基于MODIS的天山山区草地类型植被指数变化特征及其与气候因子的关系[J].沙漠与绿洲气象,2015,9(2):57-62.[FENG Zhimin,ZHAO Ling,AN Shazhou,et al. Change characteristics of MODIS NDVI and its relations to climate factors in the Tianshan Mountains[J]. Desert and Oasis Meteorology,2015,9(2):57-62.]
[8] JIN Xiaomei,LIU Jintao,WANG Songtao,et al. Vegetation dynamics and their response to groundwater and climate variables in Qaidam Basin,China[J]. International Journal of Remote Sensing,2016,37(3):710-728.
[9]邓兴耀,姚俊强,刘志辉.基于GIMMS NDVI的中亚干旱区植被覆盖时空变化[J].干旱区研究,2017,34(1):10-19.[DENG Xingyao,YAO Junqiang,LIU Zhihui. Spatiotemporal dynamics change of vegetation coverage in arid regions in Central Asia based on GIMMS NDVI[J]. Arid Zone Research,2017,34(1):10-19.]
[10]刘潮海.中亚天山冰川资源及其分布特征[J].冰川冻土,1995,17(3):193-203.[LIU Chaohai. Glacier resources and distributive characteristics in the Central Asia Tianshan Mountains[J]. Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology,1995,17(3):193-203.]
[11]李相虎,张奇,邵敏.基于TRMM数据的鄱阳湖流域降雨时空分布特征及其精度评价[J].地理科学进展,2012,31(9):1164-1170.[LI Xianghu,ZHANG Qi,SHAO Min. Spatio-temporal distribution of precipitation in Poyang Lake Basin based on TRMM data and precision evaluation[J]. Progress in Geography,2012,31(9):1164-1170.]
[12] BRADLEY Bethany A,JACOB Robert W,HERMANCE John F,et al. A curve fitting procedure to derive inter-annual phenologies from time series of noisy satellite NDVI data[J]. Remote Sensing of Environment,2007,106(2):137-45.
[13]杨齐,赵万羽,李建龙,等.新疆天山北坡荒漠草地退化现状及展望[J].草原与草坪,2009,(3):86-91.[YANG Qi,ZHAO Wanyu,LI Jianlong,et al. Analysis of present situation and research progress of desert grassland degradation in northern slope of Tianshan Mountains in Xinjiang[J]. Grassland and Turf,2009,(3):86-91.]
[14]李毓堂.巴音布鲁克草原生态破坏调查和治理对策[J].草原与草坪,2006,(4):12-14.[LI Yutang. Ecological damage investigation and management countermeasures of Bayinbuluke Grassland[J]. Grassland and Turf,2006,(4):12-14.]
[15]李文利,何文革.新疆巴音布鲁克草原退化及其驱动力分析[J].青海草业,2008,17(2):44-47.[LI Wenli,HE Wenge.The analysis on driven forces of degeneration of Bayinbulake Grassland in Xinjiang[J]. Qinghai Prataculture,2008,17(2):44-47.]
[16]吴晓全,王让会,李成,等.天山植被NPP时空特征及其对气候要素的响应[J].生态环境学报,2016,25(11):1848-1855.[WU Xiaoquan,WANG Ranghui,LI Cheng,et al. Spatial-temporal characteristics of NPP and its response to climatic factors in Tianshan Mountains region[J]. Ecology and Environmental Sciences,2016,25(11):1848-1855.]
[17]郑艺,张丽,周宇,等. 1982—2012年全球干旱区植被变化及驱动因子分析[J].干旱区研究,2017,34(1):59-66.[ZHENG Yi,ZHANG Li,ZHOU Yu,et al. Vegetation change and its driving factors in global drylands during the period of 1982-2012[J].Arid Zone Research,2017,34(1):59-66.]
[2] LI Guoqiang,RAO Zhiguo,DUAN Yanwu,et al. Paleoenvironmental changes recorded in a luminescence dated loess/paleosol sequence from the Tianshan Mountains,arid central Asia,since the Penultimate Glaciation[J]. Earth and Planetary Science Letters,2016,448:1-12.
[3] COWAN P J. Geographic usage of the terms Middle Asia and Central Asia[J]. Journal of Arid Environments,2007,69(2):359-363.
[4]陈亚宁,李稚,方功焕,等.气候变化对中亚天山山区水资源影响研究[J].地理学报,2017,72(1):18-26.[CHEN Yaning,LI Zhi,FANG Gonghuan,et al. Impact of climate change on water resources in the Tianshan Mountains,Central Asia[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica,2017,72(1):18-26.]
[5] ZHANG Chi,LU Dengsheng,CHEN Xi,et al. The spatiotemporal patterns of vegetation coverage and biomass of the temperate deserts in Central Asia and their relationships with climate controls[J]. Remote Sensing of Environment,2016,175:271-281.
[6]李杨,刘艳,马丽云,等.天山北坡气候因子对植被影响的空间分异性研究[J].干旱区资源与环境,2011,25(7):91-95.[LI Yang,LIU Yan,MA Liyun,et al. Spatial variation of the vegetation effected by climatic factors in the north slope of Tianshan Mountains[J]. Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment,2011,25(7):91-95.]
[7]冯志敏,赵玲,安沙舟,等.基于MODIS的天山山区草地类型植被指数变化特征及其与气候因子的关系[J].沙漠与绿洲气象,2015,9(2):57-62.[FENG Zhimin,ZHAO Ling,AN Shazhou,et al. Change characteristics of MODIS NDVI and its relations to climate factors in the Tianshan Mountains[J]. Desert and Oasis Meteorology,2015,9(2):57-62.]
[8] JIN Xiaomei,LIU Jintao,WANG Songtao,et al. Vegetation dynamics and their response to groundwater and climate variables in Qaidam Basin,China[J]. International Journal of Remote Sensing,2016,37(3):710-728.
[9]邓兴耀,姚俊强,刘志辉.基于GIMMS NDVI的中亚干旱区植被覆盖时空变化[J].干旱区研究,2017,34(1):10-19.[DENG Xingyao,YAO Junqiang,LIU Zhihui. Spatiotemporal dynamics change of vegetation coverage in arid regions in Central Asia based on GIMMS NDVI[J]. Arid Zone Research,2017,34(1):10-19.]
[10]刘潮海.中亚天山冰川资源及其分布特征[J].冰川冻土,1995,17(3):193-203.[LIU Chaohai. Glacier resources and distributive characteristics in the Central Asia Tianshan Mountains[J]. Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology,1995,17(3):193-203.]
[11]李相虎,张奇,邵敏.基于TRMM数据的鄱阳湖流域降雨时空分布特征及其精度评价[J].地理科学进展,2012,31(9):1164-1170.[LI Xianghu,ZHANG Qi,SHAO Min. Spatio-temporal distribution of precipitation in Poyang Lake Basin based on TRMM data and precision evaluation[J]. Progress in Geography,2012,31(9):1164-1170.]
[12] BRADLEY Bethany A,JACOB Robert W,HERMANCE John F,et al. A curve fitting procedure to derive inter-annual phenologies from time series of noisy satellite NDVI data[J]. Remote Sensing of Environment,2007,106(2):137-45.
[13]杨齐,赵万羽,李建龙,等.新疆天山北坡荒漠草地退化现状及展望[J].草原与草坪,2009,(3):86-91.[YANG Qi,ZHAO Wanyu,LI Jianlong,et al. Analysis of present situation and research progress of desert grassland degradation in northern slope of Tianshan Mountains in Xinjiang[J]. Grassland and Turf,2009,(3):86-91.]
[14]李毓堂.巴音布鲁克草原生态破坏调查和治理对策[J].草原与草坪,2006,(4):12-14.[LI Yutang. Ecological damage investigation and management countermeasures of Bayinbuluke Grassland[J]. Grassland and Turf,2006,(4):12-14.]
[15]李文利,何文革.新疆巴音布鲁克草原退化及其驱动力分析[J].青海草业,2008,17(2):44-47.[LI Wenli,HE Wenge.The analysis on driven forces of degeneration of Bayinbulake Grassland in Xinjiang[J]. Qinghai Prataculture,2008,17(2):44-47.]
[16]吴晓全,王让会,李成,等.天山植被NPP时空特征及其对气候要素的响应[J].生态环境学报,2016,25(11):1848-1855.[WU Xiaoquan,WANG Ranghui,LI Cheng,et al. Spatial-temporal characteristics of NPP and its response to climatic factors in Tianshan Mountains region[J]. Ecology and Environmental Sciences,2016,25(11):1848-1855.]
[17]郑艺,张丽,周宇,等. 1982—2012年全球干旱区植被变化及驱动因子分析[J].干旱区研究,2017,34(1):59-66.[ZHENG Yi,ZHANG Li,ZHOU Yu,et al. Vegetation change and its driving factors in global drylands during the period of 1982-2012[J].Arid Zone Research,2017,34(1):59-66.]