中国人口老龄化格局演变与形成机制
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摘要
人口老龄化的度量包括数量(老年人口数量和占比)和质量(人口预期寿命)两个方面。基于第六次人口普查和历年统计年鉴数据,综合运用空间自相关、Sullivan健康预期寿命测度模型、地理加权回归等方法,刻画了1990-2016年中国人口老龄化"数量"与"质量"的空间格局及其变化特征,并对其作用机制进行深入探讨。结果表明:①总体上,人口老龄化"数量"与"质量"的发展并不协调,存在空间差异性。②从"数量"上,"胡焕庸线"东南半壁老龄化程度高于西北半壁,但增速变化存在阶段性特征。老龄化水平存在高值和低值集聚区。高值集聚区由沿海向内陆扩展,位于西北地区的老龄化低值集聚区则逐渐萎缩。③从"质量"上看,"胡焕庸线"东南半壁人口预期寿命优于西北半壁,东部沿海省市远高于其他地区。④老年人口预期寿命与健康预期寿命发展并不同步,存在性别差异与区域功能缺损扩张效应。相比中西部,东部地区预期寿命与健康预期寿命均占优势。⑤从形成机制来看,"数量"格局的形成受人口自然变动与机械变动共同作用,其中,出生率为主导因素;对于"质量"而言,自然环境差异、社会环境发展不协调等是影响预期寿命的重要因素,其中经济发展与卫生医疗事业进步是寿命延长的主要推动力。
Based on the Sixth National Census and annual China Statistical Yearbook, the paper characterizes the spatial patterns and variation features of the "quantity" and "quality" of China's aging and its mechanism over the past 30 years or more by using spatial autocorrelation, Sullivan healthy life expectancy measurement model, and geographical weighted regression. The results are shown as follows:(1) Overall, the development of "quantity" of aging is not coordinated with that of "quality", and there are spatial differences between them.(2) In terms of "quantity", the figure of aging in the southeast half of "Hu Huanyong Line" is higher than that in the northwest half, but the change of growth rate has a phased feature. There are high and low value agglomeration areas at the aging level. The highvalue agglomeration area expands from the coastal area to the inland area, while the low-value agglomeration area located in the northwest of China is gradually shrinking.(3) In terms of "quality", the figure of the southeast half of "Hu Huanyong Line" is better than that of the northwest half, and the eastern coastal provinces enjoy far higher figures than other regions.(4)In terms of "quality" characteristics represented by life expectancy, the figure of the life expectancy and the healthy life expectancy are not synchronized, and there are gender differences and morbidity expansion effect. Compared with the central and western regions, the eastern region has higher life expectancy and healthy life expectancy.(5) From the perspective of formation mechanism, the formation of the "quantity" pattern of aging is affected by the interaction between natural and migrating population variations, with the birth rate being the major element. As for "quality", differences in natural environment and uncoordinated development of social environment are significant factors affecting life expectancy, and economic development and the health and medical services progress are the main driving forces for greater longevity.
Based on the Sixth National Census and annual China Statistical Yearbook, the paper characterizes the spatial patterns and variation features of the "quantity" and "quality" of China's aging and its mechanism over the past 30 years or more by using spatial autocorrelation, Sullivan healthy life expectancy measurement model, and geographical weighted regression. The results are shown as follows:(1) Overall, the development of "quantity" of aging is not coordinated with that of "quality", and there are spatial differences between them.(2) In terms of "quantity", the figure of aging in the southeast half of "Hu Huanyong Line" is higher than that in the northwest half, but the change of growth rate has a phased feature. There are high and low value agglomeration areas at the aging level. The highvalue agglomeration area expands from the coastal area to the inland area, while the low-value agglomeration area located in the northwest of China is gradually shrinking.(3) In terms of "quality", the figure of the southeast half of "Hu Huanyong Line" is better than that of the northwest half, and the eastern coastal provinces enjoy far higher figures than other regions.(4)In terms of "quality" characteristics represented by life expectancy, the figure of the life expectancy and the healthy life expectancy are not synchronized, and there are gender differences and morbidity expansion effect. Compared with the central and western regions, the eastern region has higher life expectancy and healthy life expectancy.(5) From the perspective of formation mechanism, the formation of the "quantity" pattern of aging is affected by the interaction between natural and migrating population variations, with the birth rate being the major element. As for "quality", differences in natural environment and uncoordinated development of social environment are significant factors affecting life expectancy, and economic development and the health and medical services progress are the main driving forces for greater longevity.
引文
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[2]Goodman A C.Using Lorenz curves to characterizes urban elderly populations.Urban Studies,1987,24(1):77-80.
[3]Flynn C B.General versus aged interstate immigration,1965-1970.Research on Aging,1980,2(2):141-154.
[4]Pan Z T,Fukuda H.Research on the countermeasure of housing for the elderly in the aging background of Japan:A case study on typical welfare facilities of Kitakyushu City in Japan.Procedia-Social and Behavioral Sciences,2016,216(6):119-128.
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[12]Yang Jijun,Zhang Erzhen.The effects of the age structure of population and the old-age insurance system transition on resident's savings rates.Social Sciences in China,2013(8):47-66,205.[杨继军,张二震.人口年龄结构、养老保险制度转轨对居民储蓄率的影响.中国社会科学,2013(8):47-66,205.]
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[14]Gu Danan,Zeng Yi,Liu Yuzhi.A review on methods in calculating the healthy life expectancy.Market and Demographic Analysis,2001,7(4):9-17.[顾大男,曾毅,柳玉芝.健康预期寿命计算方法述评.市场与人口分析,2001,7(4):9-17.]
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[16]Crimmins E M,Saito Y,Ingegneri D.Changes in life expectancy and disability-free life expectancy in the United States.Population&Development Review,1989,15(2):235-267.
[17]Wilkins R,Adams O B.Health expectancy in Canada,late 1970s:Demographic,regional,and social dimensions.American Journal of Public Health,1983,73(9):1073.
[18]Hou Fang,Liao Chuyun.Empirical research on human capital effects of education,health and old-age care.Statistics&Decision,2017(5):119-122.[侯芳,廖楚晖.教育、健康和养老的人力资本效应实证研究.统计与决策,2017(5):119-122.]
[19]Wang Wei,Liu Yufei,Peng Dongdong.Research on effects of population aging on industrial upgrading.China Industrial Economics,2015(11):47-61.[汪伟,刘玉飞,彭冬冬.人口老龄化的产业结构升级效应研究.中国工业经济,2015(11):47-61.]
[20]Wang Zengwen.Studying on population aging problem of migration and fertility rate in the state of steady population.China Population,Resources and Environment,2014,24(10):114-120.[王增文.人口迁移、生育率及人口稳定状态的老龄化问题研究.中国人口·资源与环境,2014,24(10):114-120.]
[21]Song Quancheng,Cui Ruining.Theoretical response to rapid population aging:From healthy aging to active aging.Shandong Social Sciences,2013(4):36-41.[宋全成,崔瑞宁.人口高速老龄化的理论应对:从健康老龄化到积极老龄化.山东社会科学,2013(4):36-41.]
[22]Du Peng.An analysis on the health status of the older persons in China.Population&Economics,2013(6):3-9.[杜鹏.中国老年人口健康状况分析.人口与经济,2013(6):3-9.]
[23]Li Chengfu,Wang Haitao,Wang Yong,et al.Study on the impact of education on healthy life expectancy of the elderly in China:Based on multi-state model.Population and Development,2017,23(3):101-105.[李成福,王海涛,王勇,等.教育对中国老年人健康预期寿命影响的多状态研究.人口与发展,2017,23(3):101-105.]
[24]Qiao Xiaochun.Introduction and comments on study of health expectancy.Population and Development,2009,15(2):53-66.[乔晓春.健康寿命研究的介绍与评述.人口与发展,2009,15(2):53-66.]
[25]Qiao Xiaochun,Hu Ying.Health expectancy of Chinese elderly and provincial variabilities.Population&Development,2016,38(3):18-28.[乔晓春,胡英.中国老年人健康寿命及其省际差异.人口与发展,2017,23(5):2-18.]
[26]Zhang Wenjuan,Wei Meng.The evaluation of the mortality and life expectancy of Chinese population.Population Journal,2016,38(3):18-28.[张文娟,魏蒙.中国人口的死亡水平及预期寿命评估:基于第六次人口普查数据的分析.人口学刊,2016,38(3):18-28.]
[27]Hu Huanyong,Zhang Shanyu.Chinese Population Geography.Beijing:Science Press,2007.[胡焕庸,张善余.中国人口地理.北京:科学出版社,2007.]
[28]Grossman M.On the concept of health capital and the demand for health.Journal of Political Economy,1972,80(2):223-255.
[29]Wang Lucang,Wu Rongwei.A study on spatial-temporal pattern of population ageing and its factors in China:Based on County-scale Examination.Chinese Journal of Population Science,2016(4):74-84.[王录仓,武荣伟.中国人口老龄化时空变化及成因探析:基于县域尺度的考察.中国人口科学,2016(4):74-84.]
[30]Ma Limei,Zhangxiao.Spatial effects of regional air pollution and the impact of industrial structure.China Population,Resources and Environment,2014,24(7):157-164.[马丽梅,张晓.区域大气污染空间效应及产业结构影响.中国人口·资源与环境,2014,24(7):157-164.]
[31]Zhai Zhenwu,Liu Shuang,Chen Weiduan,et al.Stabilizing China's low fertility:Concepts,theories and strategies.Population Research,2000,24(3):1-17.[翟振武,刘爽,陈卫段,等.稳定低生育水平:概念、理论与战略.人口研究,2000,24(3):1-17.]
[32]Yang Juhua,Wang Yijie,Wang Lifei,et al.Social integration of floating population:How to deal with the situation of"Double Hukou Policy Registration"?Population and Development,2014,20(3):2-17,64.[杨菊华,王毅杰,王刘飞,等.流动人口社会融合:“双重户籍墙”情景下何以可为?人口与发展,2014,20(3):2-17,64.]
[33]Yu Taofang.China's aging population and its spatial features in city areas(2000-2010).Urban Planning Forum,2013(6):58-66.[于涛方.中国城市老龄化空间特征及相关因素分析:基于“五普”和“六普”人口数据的分析.城市规划学刊,2013(6):58-66.]
[2]Goodman A C.Using Lorenz curves to characterizes urban elderly populations.Urban Studies,1987,24(1):77-80.
[3]Flynn C B.General versus aged interstate immigration,1965-1970.Research on Aging,1980,2(2):141-154.
[4]Pan Z T,Fukuda H.Research on the countermeasure of housing for the elderly in the aging background of Japan:A case study on typical welfare facilities of Kitakyushu City in Japan.Procedia-Social and Behavioral Sciences,2016,216(6):119-128.
[5]Chomik R,McDonald P,Piggott J.Population ageing in Asia and the Pacific:Dependency metrics for policy.The Journal of the Economics of Ageing,2016,8(Suppl.1):5-18.
[6]Golant S M.A Place to Grow Old:The Meaning of Environment on Old Age.New York:Columbia University Press,1984:117-118.
[7]Rogers A,Watkins J F,Woodward J A.Interregional elderly migration and population redistribution in four industrialized countries:A comparative analysis.Research on Aging,1990,12(3):251-293.
[8]Wang Lucang,Wu Rongwei,Li Wei.Spatial-temporal patterns of population aging on China's urban agglomerations.Acta Geographica Sinica,2017,72(6):1001-1016.[王录仓,武荣伟,李巍.中国城市群人口老龄化时空格局.地理学报,2017,72(6):1001-1016.]
[9]Liu Huajun,He Liwei,Yang Jian.Spatial inequality and distributional dynamics of population ageing in China,1989-2011.Population Research,2014,38(2):71-82.[刘华军,何礼伟,杨骞.中国人口老龄化的空间非均衡及分布动态演进:1989-2011.人口研究,2014,38(2):71-82.]
[10]Zhao Dongxia,Han Zenglin,Wang Li.The spatial pattern of aging population distribution and its generating mechanism in China.Acta Geographica Sinica,2017,72(10):1762-1775.[赵东霞,韩增林,王利.中国老年人口分布的集疏格局及其形成机制.地理学报,2017,72(10):1762-1775.]
[11]Zhai Zhenwu,Zheng Ruizhen.On the relationship between aging and macroeconomy.Population Research,2016,40(2):75-87.[翟振武,郑睿臻.人口老龄化与宏观经济关系的探讨.人口研究,2016,40(2):75-87.]
[12]Yang Jijun,Zhang Erzhen.The effects of the age structure of population and the old-age insurance system transition on resident's savings rates.Social Sciences in China,2013(8):47-66,205.[杨继军,张二震.人口年龄结构、养老保险制度转轨对居民储蓄率的影响.中国社会科学,2013(8):47-66,205.]
[13]Huang Kuangshi,Lu Jiehua.Study on time expectancy of care for daily living of Chinese elderly:Applying methods of sullivan and multi-state life table.Social Sciences in China,2014(4):92-101.[黄匡时,陆杰华.中国老年人平均预期照料时间研究:基于生命表的考察.中国人口科学,2014(4):92-101.]
[14]Gu Danan,Zeng Yi,Liu Yuzhi.A review on methods in calculating the healthy life expectancy.Market and Demographic Analysis,2001,7(4):9-17.[顾大男,曾毅,柳玉芝.健康预期寿命计算方法述评.市场与人口分析,2001,7(4):9-17.]
[15]Sullivan D F.Disability components for an index of health.Vital&Health Statistics,1971,42:1.
[16]Crimmins E M,Saito Y,Ingegneri D.Changes in life expectancy and disability-free life expectancy in the United States.Population&Development Review,1989,15(2):235-267.
[17]Wilkins R,Adams O B.Health expectancy in Canada,late 1970s:Demographic,regional,and social dimensions.American Journal of Public Health,1983,73(9):1073.
[18]Hou Fang,Liao Chuyun.Empirical research on human capital effects of education,health and old-age care.Statistics&Decision,2017(5):119-122.[侯芳,廖楚晖.教育、健康和养老的人力资本效应实证研究.统计与决策,2017(5):119-122.]
[19]Wang Wei,Liu Yufei,Peng Dongdong.Research on effects of population aging on industrial upgrading.China Industrial Economics,2015(11):47-61.[汪伟,刘玉飞,彭冬冬.人口老龄化的产业结构升级效应研究.中国工业经济,2015(11):47-61.]
[20]Wang Zengwen.Studying on population aging problem of migration and fertility rate in the state of steady population.China Population,Resources and Environment,2014,24(10):114-120.[王增文.人口迁移、生育率及人口稳定状态的老龄化问题研究.中国人口·资源与环境,2014,24(10):114-120.]
[21]Song Quancheng,Cui Ruining.Theoretical response to rapid population aging:From healthy aging to active aging.Shandong Social Sciences,2013(4):36-41.[宋全成,崔瑞宁.人口高速老龄化的理论应对:从健康老龄化到积极老龄化.山东社会科学,2013(4):36-41.]
[22]Du Peng.An analysis on the health status of the older persons in China.Population&Economics,2013(6):3-9.[杜鹏.中国老年人口健康状况分析.人口与经济,2013(6):3-9.]
[23]Li Chengfu,Wang Haitao,Wang Yong,et al.Study on the impact of education on healthy life expectancy of the elderly in China:Based on multi-state model.Population and Development,2017,23(3):101-105.[李成福,王海涛,王勇,等.教育对中国老年人健康预期寿命影响的多状态研究.人口与发展,2017,23(3):101-105.]
[24]Qiao Xiaochun.Introduction and comments on study of health expectancy.Population and Development,2009,15(2):53-66.[乔晓春.健康寿命研究的介绍与评述.人口与发展,2009,15(2):53-66.]
[25]Qiao Xiaochun,Hu Ying.Health expectancy of Chinese elderly and provincial variabilities.Population&Development,2016,38(3):18-28.[乔晓春,胡英.中国老年人健康寿命及其省际差异.人口与发展,2017,23(5):2-18.]
[26]Zhang Wenjuan,Wei Meng.The evaluation of the mortality and life expectancy of Chinese population.Population Journal,2016,38(3):18-28.[张文娟,魏蒙.中国人口的死亡水平及预期寿命评估:基于第六次人口普查数据的分析.人口学刊,2016,38(3):18-28.]
[27]Hu Huanyong,Zhang Shanyu.Chinese Population Geography.Beijing:Science Press,2007.[胡焕庸,张善余.中国人口地理.北京:科学出版社,2007.]
[28]Grossman M.On the concept of health capital and the demand for health.Journal of Political Economy,1972,80(2):223-255.
[29]Wang Lucang,Wu Rongwei.A study on spatial-temporal pattern of population ageing and its factors in China:Based on County-scale Examination.Chinese Journal of Population Science,2016(4):74-84.[王录仓,武荣伟.中国人口老龄化时空变化及成因探析:基于县域尺度的考察.中国人口科学,2016(4):74-84.]
[30]Ma Limei,Zhangxiao.Spatial effects of regional air pollution and the impact of industrial structure.China Population,Resources and Environment,2014,24(7):157-164.[马丽梅,张晓.区域大气污染空间效应及产业结构影响.中国人口·资源与环境,2014,24(7):157-164.]
[31]Zhai Zhenwu,Liu Shuang,Chen Weiduan,et al.Stabilizing China's low fertility:Concepts,theories and strategies.Population Research,2000,24(3):1-17.[翟振武,刘爽,陈卫段,等.稳定低生育水平:概念、理论与战略.人口研究,2000,24(3):1-17.]
[32]Yang Juhua,Wang Yijie,Wang Lifei,et al.Social integration of floating population:How to deal with the situation of"Double Hukou Policy Registration"?Population and Development,2014,20(3):2-17,64.[杨菊华,王毅杰,王刘飞,等.流动人口社会融合:“双重户籍墙”情景下何以可为?人口与发展,2014,20(3):2-17,64.]
[33]Yu Taofang.China's aging population and its spatial features in city areas(2000-2010).Urban Planning Forum,2013(6):58-66.[于涛方.中国城市老龄化空间特征及相关因素分析:基于“五普”和“六普”人口数据的分析.城市规划学刊,2013(6):58-66.]