北京清洁取暖政策实施效果及成本收益量化分析
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摘要
我国北方农村地区居民普遍采用的散煤分户取暖是当地污染物排放和温室气体排放的重要来源。为加大散煤治理、推进清洁取暖,北京率先推行了清洁取暖政策。本研究基于北京市约4000户农村家庭的入户调查数据,对清洁取暖政策的实施效果进行系统性分析,并对"煤改电""煤改气"和"清洁燃煤替代"三种主要清洁取暖措施的成本和收益进行量化与对比分析。结果显示,"煤改电""煤改气"和"清洁燃煤替代"均增加了居民的取暖成本,但也普遍改善了居民取暖的主观感受;政策实施减少污染物排放所带来的环境和人体健康方面的收益均大于实施成本,增进了社会福利。其中,"煤改气"户均收益最高,而"清洁燃煤替代"户均成本最低。最后,本文在研究结果的基础上,对取暖政策的推行提出相应的政策建议。
The widely use of scattered coal for heating in northern rural areas in China has led to severe air pollution and greenhouse gases emissions. To solve these problems, Beijing started a clean heating program. Based on a comprehensive household survey covering 4000 households in rural Beijing, this paper conducted a systematic analysis on the effectiveness of clean heating program, and a comparative analysis on the cost-benefit of 3 clean heating measures including coal to electricity, coal to gas, clean coal replacement. The results showed that this program improved heating experience of enrolled households at the cost of increasing household heating cost, even after the subsidies; and it generated a positive net benefit from reducing the emissions of air pollution and greenhouse gases, in which coal to gas got the highest average benefit per household and clean coal replacement got the lowest cost per household. Based on the findings, short-term, middleterm and long-term policy recommendations were proposed.
The widely use of scattered coal for heating in northern rural areas in China has led to severe air pollution and greenhouse gases emissions. To solve these problems, Beijing started a clean heating program. Based on a comprehensive household survey covering 4000 households in rural Beijing, this paper conducted a systematic analysis on the effectiveness of clean heating program, and a comparative analysis on the cost-benefit of 3 clean heating measures including coal to electricity, coal to gas, clean coal replacement. The results showed that this program improved heating experience of enrolled households at the cost of increasing household heating cost, even after the subsidies; and it generated a positive net benefit from reducing the emissions of air pollution and greenhouse gases, in which coal to gas got the highest average benefit per household and clean coal replacement got the lowest cost per household. Based on the findings, short-term, middleterm and long-term policy recommendations were proposed.
引文
[1]国务院.国务院关于印发大气污染防治行动计划的通知[Z].国发[2013]37号,2013-09-10.
[2]国家发展改革委等六部委.重点地区煤炭消费减量替代管理暂行办法[Z].国办发[2014]23号,2014-12-29.
[3]新华社.《中央财经领导小组第十四次会议》[N].2016-12-21.http://www.gov.cn/xinwen/2016-12/21/content_5151201.htm
[4]BUDYA H,AROFAT M Y.Providing cleaner energy access in Indonesia through the megaproject of kerosene conversion to LPG[J].Energy policy,2011,39(12):7575-7586.
[5]ESMAP.Access of the Poor to Clean Household Fuels in India[R].New York:UNDP,2003.
[6]RAO N D.Kerosene subsidies in India:when energy policy fails as social policy[J].Energy for sustainable development,2012,16(1):35-43.
[7]MICHELSEN C C,MADLENER R.Switching from fossil fuel to renewables in residential heating systems:an empirical study of homeowners’decisions in Germany[J].Energy policy,2016,89:95-105.
[8]MENSAH J T,ADU G.An empirical analysis of household energy choice in Ghana[J].Renewable and sustainable energy reviews,2015,51:1402-1411.
[9]VAN DER KROON B,BROUWER R,VAN BEUKERING P J H.The energy ladder:theoretical myth or empirical truth?Results from a meta-analysis[J].Renewable and sustainable energy reviews,2013,20:504-513.
[10]RAJMOHAN K,WEERAHEWA J.Household energy consumption patterns in Sri Lanka[J].Sri Lankan journal of agricultural economics,2010,9:55-77.
[11]HOSIER R H,DOWD J.Household fuel choice in Zimbabwe:an empirical test of the energy ladder hypothesis[J].Resources and energy,1987,9(4):347-361.
[12]HELTBERG R.Fuel switching:evidence from eight developing countries[J].Energy economics,2004,26(5):869-87.
[13]LEACH G.The energy transition[J].Energy policy,1992,20(2):116-23.
[14]SATHAYE J,TYLER S.Transitions in household energy use in urban China,India,the Philippines,Thailand,and Hong Kong[J].Annual review of energy and the environment,1991,16:295-335.
[15]SMITH K R,APTE M G,MA Y Q,et al.Air pollution and the energy ladder in Asian cities[J].Energy,1994,19(5):587-600.
[16]REDDY A K N,REDDY B S.Substitution of energy carriers for cooking in Bangalore[J].Energy,1994,19(5):561-571.
[17]MEHTA S,SHAHPAR C.The health benefits of interventions to reduce indoor air pollution from solid fuel use:a cost-effectiveness analysis[J].Energy for sustainable development,2004,8(3):53-59.
[18]HUTTON G,REHFUESS E,TEDIOSI F.Evaluation of the costs and benefits of interventions to reduce indoor air pollution[J].Energy for sustainable development,2007,11(4):34-43.
[19]DAVIS L W,FUCHS A,GERTLER P.Cash for Coolers:evaluating a large-scale appliance replacement program in Mexico[J].American economic journal:economic policy,2014,6(4):207-238.
[20]柴发合,薛志钢,支国瑞,等.农村居民散煤燃烧污染综合治理对策[J].环境保护,2016,44(6):14-19.
[21]陈莉,李文硕,谭振刚,等.天然气供热对二氧化碳排放量的影响[J].煤气与热力,2013,33(3):26-28.
[22]陈颖军,姜晓华,支国瑞,等.我国民用燃煤的黑碳排放及控制减排[J].中国科学D辑:地球科学,2009,39(11):1554-1559.
[23]丁淑英,张清宇,徐卫国,等.电力生产环境成本计算方法的研究[J].热力发电,2007,36(2):1-4,27-27.
[24]杜祥琬.能源革命--为了可持续发展的未来[J].北京理工大学学报(社会科学版),2014,16(5):1-8.
[25]宫昊,罗佐县,何铮,等.推进冬季清洁取暖加速农村能源革命[J].石油石化绿色低碳,2017,2(4):6-10.
[26]贺洪燕.供热锅炉“煤改气”环境效益分析--以某一个供热站为例[J].科技资讯,2015,13(18):131-132.
[27]侯萍,王洪涛,张浩,等.用于组织和产品碳足迹的中国电力温室气体排放因子[J].中国环境科学,2012,32(6):961-967.
[28]环境保护部,北京市人民政府,天津市人民政府,等.关于印发《京津冀大气污染防治强化措施(2016-2017年)》的通知[Z].环大气[2016]80号,2016-06-17.
[29]孔少飞,白志鹏,陆炳.民用燃料燃烧排放PM2.5和PM10中碳组分排放因子对比[J].中国环境科学,2014,34(11):2749-2756.
[30]李俊峰,柴麒敏.论我国能源转型的关键问题及政策建议[J].环境保护,2016,44(9):15-21.
[31]梁云平,张大伟,林安国,等.北京市民用燃煤烟气中气态污染物排放特征[J].环境科学,2017,38(5):1775-1782.
[32]刘源,张元勋,魏永杰,等.民用燃煤含碳颗粒物的排放因子测量[J].环境科学学报,2007,27(9):1409-1416.
[33]刘长松.国际能源转型进展及其对中国的启示和借鉴[J].鄱阳湖学刊,2016(3):113-119,128-128.
[34]马丽萍,曹国良,郝国朝.陕西省民用散煤燃烧颗粒物排放因子测定及分析[J].环境工程,2018,36(10):161-164.
[35]庞军,吴健,马中,等.我国城市天然气替代燃煤集中供暖的大气污染减排效果[J].中国环境科学,2015,35(1):55-61.
[36]彭瑞玲,刘君卓,潘小川,等.3种民用燃料的燃烧颗粒物的含量及其粒径组成[J].环境与健康杂志,2005,22(1):13-15.
[37]孙家晨.北京市生物质能供热发展概况[J].区域供热,2014(5):74-77,82-82.
[38]孙爽.能源互联网背景下中国电力行业节能减排路径研究[D].北京:华北电力大学,2016.
[39]国家发展改革委.国家发展改革委关于印发《省级电网输配电价定价办法(试行)》的通知[Z].发改价格[2016]2711号,2016-12-22.
[40]财政部.企业会计准则--应用指南[M].北京:中国财政经济出版社,2006.
(1)基础设施建设的数据来自北京市范各庄村(煤改气代表村)和北年丰村(煤改电代表村)的实地调研,两村整体前期投入为3000万元左右,是村委会实际投入的总成本(包括财政投入和村委会开支)。按照中等规模村庄(600户)计算,每户约5万元。对比环境规划院报告中估算的施工建设方面基础设施投入分别为煤改气4000元/户以及煤改电1.5万元/户,本文中的数值是整村所有的投入,包含建设施工以及其他改造成本。
(2)2016年、2017年的工作报告中提到“对尚未改用清洁能源的地区,实现全市农村地区居民使用优质煤全覆盖”。假设2016年底实现了优质燃煤全覆盖,因此用北京市农村总户数(2016年统计年鉴为103.8万农业户)-“煤改气”与“煤改电”的户数=在2017年底仍旧实施清洁燃煤替代政策的户数44.49万户。
[2]国家发展改革委等六部委.重点地区煤炭消费减量替代管理暂行办法[Z].国办发[2014]23号,2014-12-29.
[3]新华社.《中央财经领导小组第十四次会议》[N].2016-12-21.http://www.gov.cn/xinwen/2016-12/21/content_5151201.htm
[4]BUDYA H,AROFAT M Y.Providing cleaner energy access in Indonesia through the megaproject of kerosene conversion to LPG[J].Energy policy,2011,39(12):7575-7586.
[5]ESMAP.Access of the Poor to Clean Household Fuels in India[R].New York:UNDP,2003.
[6]RAO N D.Kerosene subsidies in India:when energy policy fails as social policy[J].Energy for sustainable development,2012,16(1):35-43.
[7]MICHELSEN C C,MADLENER R.Switching from fossil fuel to renewables in residential heating systems:an empirical study of homeowners’decisions in Germany[J].Energy policy,2016,89:95-105.
[8]MENSAH J T,ADU G.An empirical analysis of household energy choice in Ghana[J].Renewable and sustainable energy reviews,2015,51:1402-1411.
[9]VAN DER KROON B,BROUWER R,VAN BEUKERING P J H.The energy ladder:theoretical myth or empirical truth?Results from a meta-analysis[J].Renewable and sustainable energy reviews,2013,20:504-513.
[10]RAJMOHAN K,WEERAHEWA J.Household energy consumption patterns in Sri Lanka[J].Sri Lankan journal of agricultural economics,2010,9:55-77.
[11]HOSIER R H,DOWD J.Household fuel choice in Zimbabwe:an empirical test of the energy ladder hypothesis[J].Resources and energy,1987,9(4):347-361.
[12]HELTBERG R.Fuel switching:evidence from eight developing countries[J].Energy economics,2004,26(5):869-87.
[13]LEACH G.The energy transition[J].Energy policy,1992,20(2):116-23.
[14]SATHAYE J,TYLER S.Transitions in household energy use in urban China,India,the Philippines,Thailand,and Hong Kong[J].Annual review of energy and the environment,1991,16:295-335.
[15]SMITH K R,APTE M G,MA Y Q,et al.Air pollution and the energy ladder in Asian cities[J].Energy,1994,19(5):587-600.
[16]REDDY A K N,REDDY B S.Substitution of energy carriers for cooking in Bangalore[J].Energy,1994,19(5):561-571.
[17]MEHTA S,SHAHPAR C.The health benefits of interventions to reduce indoor air pollution from solid fuel use:a cost-effectiveness analysis[J].Energy for sustainable development,2004,8(3):53-59.
[18]HUTTON G,REHFUESS E,TEDIOSI F.Evaluation of the costs and benefits of interventions to reduce indoor air pollution[J].Energy for sustainable development,2007,11(4):34-43.
[19]DAVIS L W,FUCHS A,GERTLER P.Cash for Coolers:evaluating a large-scale appliance replacement program in Mexico[J].American economic journal:economic policy,2014,6(4):207-238.
[20]柴发合,薛志钢,支国瑞,等.农村居民散煤燃烧污染综合治理对策[J].环境保护,2016,44(6):14-19.
[21]陈莉,李文硕,谭振刚,等.天然气供热对二氧化碳排放量的影响[J].煤气与热力,2013,33(3):26-28.
[22]陈颖军,姜晓华,支国瑞,等.我国民用燃煤的黑碳排放及控制减排[J].中国科学D辑:地球科学,2009,39(11):1554-1559.
[23]丁淑英,张清宇,徐卫国,等.电力生产环境成本计算方法的研究[J].热力发电,2007,36(2):1-4,27-27.
[24]杜祥琬.能源革命--为了可持续发展的未来[J].北京理工大学学报(社会科学版),2014,16(5):1-8.
[25]宫昊,罗佐县,何铮,等.推进冬季清洁取暖加速农村能源革命[J].石油石化绿色低碳,2017,2(4):6-10.
[26]贺洪燕.供热锅炉“煤改气”环境效益分析--以某一个供热站为例[J].科技资讯,2015,13(18):131-132.
[27]侯萍,王洪涛,张浩,等.用于组织和产品碳足迹的中国电力温室气体排放因子[J].中国环境科学,2012,32(6):961-967.
[28]环境保护部,北京市人民政府,天津市人民政府,等.关于印发《京津冀大气污染防治强化措施(2016-2017年)》的通知[Z].环大气[2016]80号,2016-06-17.
[29]孔少飞,白志鹏,陆炳.民用燃料燃烧排放PM2.5和PM10中碳组分排放因子对比[J].中国环境科学,2014,34(11):2749-2756.
[30]李俊峰,柴麒敏.论我国能源转型的关键问题及政策建议[J].环境保护,2016,44(9):15-21.
[31]梁云平,张大伟,林安国,等.北京市民用燃煤烟气中气态污染物排放特征[J].环境科学,2017,38(5):1775-1782.
[32]刘源,张元勋,魏永杰,等.民用燃煤含碳颗粒物的排放因子测量[J].环境科学学报,2007,27(9):1409-1416.
[33]刘长松.国际能源转型进展及其对中国的启示和借鉴[J].鄱阳湖学刊,2016(3):113-119,128-128.
[34]马丽萍,曹国良,郝国朝.陕西省民用散煤燃烧颗粒物排放因子测定及分析[J].环境工程,2018,36(10):161-164.
[35]庞军,吴健,马中,等.我国城市天然气替代燃煤集中供暖的大气污染减排效果[J].中国环境科学,2015,35(1):55-61.
[36]彭瑞玲,刘君卓,潘小川,等.3种民用燃料的燃烧颗粒物的含量及其粒径组成[J].环境与健康杂志,2005,22(1):13-15.
[37]孙家晨.北京市生物质能供热发展概况[J].区域供热,2014(5):74-77,82-82.
[38]孙爽.能源互联网背景下中国电力行业节能减排路径研究[D].北京:华北电力大学,2016.
[39]国家发展改革委.国家发展改革委关于印发《省级电网输配电价定价办法(试行)》的通知[Z].发改价格[2016]2711号,2016-12-22.
[40]财政部.企业会计准则--应用指南[M].北京:中国财政经济出版社,2006.
(1)基础设施建设的数据来自北京市范各庄村(煤改气代表村)和北年丰村(煤改电代表村)的实地调研,两村整体前期投入为3000万元左右,是村委会实际投入的总成本(包括财政投入和村委会开支)。按照中等规模村庄(600户)计算,每户约5万元。对比环境规划院报告中估算的施工建设方面基础设施投入分别为煤改气4000元/户以及煤改电1.5万元/户,本文中的数值是整村所有的投入,包含建设施工以及其他改造成本。
(2)2016年、2017年的工作报告中提到“对尚未改用清洁能源的地区,实现全市农村地区居民使用优质煤全覆盖”。假设2016年底实现了优质燃煤全覆盖,因此用北京市农村总户数(2016年统计年鉴为103.8万农业户)-“煤改气”与“煤改电”的户数=在2017年底仍旧实施清洁燃煤替代政策的户数44.49万户。