区域经济弹性视角下辽宁老工业基地经济振兴过程分析
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摘要
区域经济弹性概念对分析老工业基地演变过程有独特的理论价值。依据经济增速划分1990～2015年辽宁老工业基地经济周期,通过构建反事实函数测度不同阶段城市和分产业经济抵抗力和恢复力,揭示了区域经济弹性的演化特征,反映了辽宁老工业基地经济振兴过程,结果发现:同一经济周期中抵抗力和恢复力之间存在负相关关系,抵抗力低受冲击影响严重的城市在随后的经济振兴过程中经济恢复发展好,存在"创造性破坏"过程;区域经济弹性是一个不断演化的过程,区域对冲击的抵抗力水平受前一经济周期恢复力的影响,区域经济弹性在引起区域应对冲击能力的变化同时其自身也因此而发生改变;辽宁老工业基地的经济振兴经历了衰退-恢复-下滑的波动历程,呈现倒"N"型,其面对冲击扰动的抵抗力较低,第二产业更易受到冲击影响,第三产业抵抗力相对较高,老工业基地长期存在路径依赖、制度锁定现象,结构性体制性问题严重,突破能力弱,过度依赖传统重化工业,新兴产业发展缓慢,现代服务业发展严重滞后。针对老工业基地演变过程的规律特征,提出了辽宁老工业基地经济振兴的对策建议。
The concept of regional economic resilience has unique theoretical value for analyzing the evolution of old industrial bases. The article divided the economic cycle of Liaoning old industrial base in 1990-2015 according to the economic growth rate, and constructed a counterfactual function to measure the economic resistance and recoverability of the urban and sub-industry in different stages, revealed the evolution characteristics of regional economic resilience, and reflected the economic revitalization process of Liaoning old industrial base. There were three main findings. First, there was a negative correlation between resistance and recoverability in the same economic cycle, the cities with low resistance were recovering well in the course of subsequent economic revitalization, and there was a 'creative destruction' process. Second, the regional economic resilience was an evolving process, the level of regional resistance to shock was influenced by the recoverability of the previous economic cycle, the shock and the process of recovery itself may lead to change in the region's economic structure and functions, and these in turn will influence the region's resistance to subsequent shocks,in other words, resilience both influenced the evolution of regional economies and itself evolved. Third, the economic revitalization process of the Liaoning old industrial base experienced a recession-recovery-decline process, and the process presents an inverted 'N' type, the level of resistance to disturbance was low in Liaoning old industrial base, the secondary industry was more vulnerable to shocks and the tertiary industry had relatively high resistance. Liaoning old industrial base had path dependence and institution locking phenomenon,and the structural-system problem was serious. Liaoning's economic development relied excessively on traditional heavy-chemical industry, and the development of new strategic industries and modern service industry was slow. Aiming at the regular characteristics of the evolution process of the old industrial base, the paper put forward some suggestions for the economic revitalization of Liaoning old industrial base.
The concept of regional economic resilience has unique theoretical value for analyzing the evolution of old industrial bases. The article divided the economic cycle of Liaoning old industrial base in 1990-2015 according to the economic growth rate, and constructed a counterfactual function to measure the economic resistance and recoverability of the urban and sub-industry in different stages, revealed the evolution characteristics of regional economic resilience, and reflected the economic revitalization process of Liaoning old industrial base. There were three main findings. First, there was a negative correlation between resistance and recoverability in the same economic cycle, the cities with low resistance were recovering well in the course of subsequent economic revitalization, and there was a 'creative destruction' process. Second, the regional economic resilience was an evolving process, the level of regional resistance to shock was influenced by the recoverability of the previous economic cycle, the shock and the process of recovery itself may lead to change in the region's economic structure and functions, and these in turn will influence the region's resistance to subsequent shocks,in other words, resilience both influenced the evolution of regional economies and itself evolved. Third, the economic revitalization process of the Liaoning old industrial base experienced a recession-recovery-decline process, and the process presents an inverted 'N' type, the level of resistance to disturbance was low in Liaoning old industrial base, the secondary industry was more vulnerable to shocks and the tertiary industry had relatively high resistance. Liaoning old industrial base had path dependence and institution locking phenomenon,and the structural-system problem was serious. Liaoning's economic development relied excessively on traditional heavy-chemical industry, and the development of new strategic industries and modern service industry was slow. Aiming at the regular characteristics of the evolution process of the old industrial base, the paper put forward some suggestions for the economic revitalization of Liaoning old industrial base.
引文
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[18] Chapple K, Lester T W. The resilient regional labour market?The US Case[J]. Cambridge Journal of Regions, Economy and Society, 2010, 3(1):85-104.
[19] Cellini R, Torrisi G. Regional resilience in Italy:A very longrun analysis[J]. Regional Studies, 2014, 48(1):1779-1796.
[20] Davies S. Regional resilience in the 2008-2010 downturn:Comparative evidence from European countries[J]. Cambridge Journal of Regions, Economy and Society, 2011, 4(3):369-382.
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[22] Hu X., Hassink R. Exploring adaptation and adaptability in uneven economic resilience:A tale of two Chinese mining regions[J]. Cambridge Journal of Regions, Economy and Society,2017, 10(3):527-541.
[23] Di Caro P. Recessions, recoveries and regional resilience:Evidence on Italy[J]. Cambridge Journal of Regions, Economy and Society, 2015, 8(2):273-291.
[24] Tan Juntao, Zhang Pingyu, Lo Kevin et al. Conceptualizing and measuring economic resilience of resource-based cities:Case study of Northeast China[J]. Chinese Geographical Science,2017, 27(3):471-481.
[25] Guan Haoming, Liu Wenxin, Zhang Pingyu et al. Analyzing industrial structure evolution of old industrial cities using evolutionary resilience theory:A case study in Shenyang of China[J].Chinese Geographical Science, 2018, 28(3):516-528.
[26] Brakman S, Garretsen H, van Marrewijk C. Regional resilience across Europe:On urbanisation and the initial impact of the Great Recession[J]. Cambridge Journal of Regions, Economy and Society, 2015, 8(2):225-240.
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[29]张平宇.东北区域发展报告2008[M].北京:科学出版社,2008.[Zhang Pingyu. Annual report of Northeast China development. Beijing:Science Press, 2008.]
[30]赵秋成.辽宁老工业基地的工业化、城市化及其路径选择[J].经济地理,2005,25(3):329-332.[Zhao Qiucheng. Industrialization and urbanization and its paths’selection of Liaoning traditional industrial base. Economic Geography, 2005, 25(3):329-332.]
[31]陈琳琳,金凤君,洪辉.东北地区工业基地演化路径研究[J].地理科学, 2016, 36(9):1378-1387.[Chen Linlin, Jin Fengjun,Hong Hui. The evolution path of the industrial base in Northeast China. Scientia Geographica Sinica, 2016, 36(9):1378-1387.]
[32]冯贵盛.辽宁区域经济发展论[M].沈阳:辽宁人民出版社,2012.[Feng Guisheng. Regional economic development in Liaoning. Shenyang:Liaoning People Press, 2012.]
[33]张沈立.辽宁经济社会发展重大问题研究报告[M].沈阳:辽宁大学出版社,2009.[Zhang Shenli. Research Report on major issues of economic and social development in Liaoning.Shenyang:Liaoning University Press, 2009.]
[34]姜健力.辽宁经济发展与发展方式的转变[J].沈阳工业大学学报(社会科学版),2008,1(1):7-12+105.[Jiang Jianli. On economic development and transformation of development ways in Liaoning province. Journal of Shenyang University of Technology(Social Science Edition), 2008, 1(1):7-12+105.]
[35]常丽.辽宁产业结构与就业结构协同性实证研究[J].中国科技论坛,2010,(1):49-55.[Chang Li. Poaitive study on the coordination between industrial structure and employment structure development in Liaoning. Forum on Science and Technology in China, 2010,(1):49-55.]
[36]金凤君,王姣娥,杨宇,等.东北地区创新发展的突破路径与对策研究[J].地理科学,2016,36(9):1285-1292.[Jin Fengjun,Wang Jiaoe, Yang Yu et al. The paths and solutions of innovation development in Northeast Chian. Scientia Geographica Sinica, 2016, 36(9):1285-1292.]
[37]黄群慧,石颖.东北三省工业经济下行的原因分析及对策建议[J].学习与探索, 2016(7):100-112+176.[Huang Qunhui, Shi Ying. Cause analysis and Countermeasures of industrial economy descending in Northeast China. Study and Exploration, 2016(7):100-112+176.]
[38]纪国涛,吕富彪.辽宁省装备制造业产业创新能力提升对策研究[J].科学管理研究,2017,35(2):66-69.[Ji Guotao, Lv Fubiao.Study on the countermeasures of innovation capability upgrading for Liaoning EMI. Scientific Management Research, 2017,35(2):66-69.]
[39] Eriksson R H, Hane-Weijman E. How do regional economies respond to crises? The geography of job creation and destruction in Sweden(1990-2010)[J]. European Urban and Regional Studies, 2017, 24(1):87-103.
[2] Eraydin A. Attributes and characteristics of regional resilience:Defining and measuring the resilience of Turkish regions[J]. Regional Studies, 2016, 50(4):600-614.
[3] Martin R. Regional economic resilience, hysteresis and recessionary shocks[J]. Journal of Economic Geography, 2012, 12(1):1-32.
[4] Cerra V, Panizza U, Saxena S C. International evidence on recovery from recessions[J]. Contemporary Economic Policy,2013, 31(2):424-439.
[5] Fingleton B, Garretsen H, Martin R. Recessionary shocks and regional employment:Evidence on the resilience of UK regions[J]. Journal of Regional Science, 2012, 52(1):109-133.
[6] Doran J, Fingleton B. Employment resilience in Europe and the2008 economic crisis:Insights from micro-level data[J]. Regional Studies, 2016, 50(4):644-656.
[7] Reggiani A, De Graaff T, Nijkamp P. Resilience:An evolutionary approach to spatial economic systems[J]. Networks and Spatial Economics, 2002, 2(2):211-229.
[8] Martin R, Sunley P, Gardiner B et al. How regions react to reCessions:Resilience and the role of economic structure[J]. Regional Studies, 2016, 50(4):561-585.
[9] Martin R, Sunley P. On the notion of regional economic resilience:Conceptualization and explanation[J]. Journal of Economic Geography, 2015, 15(1):1-42.
[10] Rose A, Krausmann E. An economic framework for the development of a resilience index for business recovery[J]. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 2013, 5:73-83.
[11] Boschma R. Towards an evolutionary perspective on regional resilience[J]. Regional Studies,2015, 49(5):733-751.
[12] Holling, C. Resilience and stability of ecological systems[J].Annual Review of Ecology and Systematics, 1973, 4(1):1-23.
[13] Davoudi S, Shaw K, Haider L J et al. Resilience:A bridging concept or a dead end?[J]. Planning Theory&Practice, 2012,13(2):299-333.
[14] Modica M, Reggiani A. Spatial economic resilience:Overview and perspectives[J]. Networks and Spatial Economics, 2015, 15(2):211-233.
[15] Bristow G. Resilient regions:re-‘placeing’regional competitiveness[J]. Cambridge Journal of Regions, Economy and Society, 2010, 3(1):153-167.
[16]蔡建明,郭华,汪德根.国外弹性城市研究述评[J].地理科学进展,2012,31(10):1245-1255.[Cai Jianming, Guo Hua, Wang Degen. Review on the resilient city research overseas. Progress in Geography, 2012,31(10):1245-1255.]
[17]彭翀,袁敏航,顾朝林,等.区域弹性的理论与实践研究进展[J].城市规划学刊,2015(1):84-92.[Peng Chong, Yuan Minhang, Gu Chaolin et al. Research progress on the theory and practice of regional resilience. Urban Planning Forum, 2015(1):84-92.]
[18] Chapple K, Lester T W. The resilient regional labour market?The US Case[J]. Cambridge Journal of Regions, Economy and Society, 2010, 3(1):85-104.
[19] Cellini R, Torrisi G. Regional resilience in Italy:A very longrun analysis[J]. Regional Studies, 2014, 48(1):1779-1796.
[20] Davies S. Regional resilience in the 2008-2010 downturn:Comparative evidence from European countries[J]. Cambridge Journal of Regions, Economy and Society, 2011, 4(3):369-382.
[21] Tan J, Lo K, Qiu F et al. Regional economic resilience:Resistance and recoverability of resource-based cities during economic crises in Northeast China[J]. Sustainability, 2017, 9(12):1-15.
[22] Hu X., Hassink R. Exploring adaptation and adaptability in uneven economic resilience:A tale of two Chinese mining regions[J]. Cambridge Journal of Regions, Economy and Society,2017, 10(3):527-541.
[23] Di Caro P. Recessions, recoveries and regional resilience:Evidence on Italy[J]. Cambridge Journal of Regions, Economy and Society, 2015, 8(2):273-291.
[24] Tan Juntao, Zhang Pingyu, Lo Kevin et al. Conceptualizing and measuring economic resilience of resource-based cities:Case study of Northeast China[J]. Chinese Geographical Science,2017, 27(3):471-481.
[25] Guan Haoming, Liu Wenxin, Zhang Pingyu et al. Analyzing industrial structure evolution of old industrial cities using evolutionary resilience theory:A case study in Shenyang of China[J].Chinese Geographical Science, 2018, 28(3):516-528.
[26] Brakman S, Garretsen H, van Marrewijk C. Regional resilience across Europe:On urbanisation and the initial impact of the Great Recession[J]. Cambridge Journal of Regions, Economy and Society, 2015, 8(2):225-240.
[27]国家统计局.中国统计年鉴[M].北京:中国统计出版社,1991-2016.[National Bureau of Statistics. China statistical yearbook.Beijing:China Statistics Press, 1991-2016.]
[28]辽宁省统计局.辽宁统计年鉴[M].北京:中国统计出版社,1991-2016.[Liaoning Statistical Bureau. Dalian statistical yearbook. Beijing:China Statistics Press, 1991-2016.]
[29]张平宇.东北区域发展报告2008[M].北京:科学出版社,2008.[Zhang Pingyu. Annual report of Northeast China development. Beijing:Science Press, 2008.]
[30]赵秋成.辽宁老工业基地的工业化、城市化及其路径选择[J].经济地理,2005,25(3):329-332.[Zhao Qiucheng. Industrialization and urbanization and its paths’selection of Liaoning traditional industrial base. Economic Geography, 2005, 25(3):329-332.]
[31]陈琳琳,金凤君,洪辉.东北地区工业基地演化路径研究[J].地理科学, 2016, 36(9):1378-1387.[Chen Linlin, Jin Fengjun,Hong Hui. The evolution path of the industrial base in Northeast China. Scientia Geographica Sinica, 2016, 36(9):1378-1387.]
[32]冯贵盛.辽宁区域经济发展论[M].沈阳:辽宁人民出版社,2012.[Feng Guisheng. Regional economic development in Liaoning. Shenyang:Liaoning People Press, 2012.]
[33]张沈立.辽宁经济社会发展重大问题研究报告[M].沈阳:辽宁大学出版社,2009.[Zhang Shenli. Research Report on major issues of economic and social development in Liaoning.Shenyang:Liaoning University Press, 2009.]
[34]姜健力.辽宁经济发展与发展方式的转变[J].沈阳工业大学学报(社会科学版),2008,1(1):7-12+105.[Jiang Jianli. On economic development and transformation of development ways in Liaoning province. Journal of Shenyang University of Technology(Social Science Edition), 2008, 1(1):7-12+105.]
[35]常丽.辽宁产业结构与就业结构协同性实证研究[J].中国科技论坛,2010,(1):49-55.[Chang Li. Poaitive study on the coordination between industrial structure and employment structure development in Liaoning. Forum on Science and Technology in China, 2010,(1):49-55.]
[36]金凤君,王姣娥,杨宇,等.东北地区创新发展的突破路径与对策研究[J].地理科学,2016,36(9):1285-1292.[Jin Fengjun,Wang Jiaoe, Yang Yu et al. The paths and solutions of innovation development in Northeast Chian. Scientia Geographica Sinica, 2016, 36(9):1285-1292.]
[37]黄群慧,石颖.东北三省工业经济下行的原因分析及对策建议[J].学习与探索, 2016(7):100-112+176.[Huang Qunhui, Shi Ying. Cause analysis and Countermeasures of industrial economy descending in Northeast China. Study and Exploration, 2016(7):100-112+176.]
[38]纪国涛,吕富彪.辽宁省装备制造业产业创新能力提升对策研究[J].科学管理研究,2017,35(2):66-69.[Ji Guotao, Lv Fubiao.Study on the countermeasures of innovation capability upgrading for Liaoning EMI. Scientific Management Research, 2017,35(2):66-69.]
[39] Eriksson R H, Hane-Weijman E. How do regional economies respond to crises? The geography of job creation and destruction in Sweden(1990-2010)[J]. European Urban and Regional Studies, 2017, 24(1):87-103.