基于Hubbert峰值模型的中国有色金属产量峰值研究
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摘要
随着矿产资源大量开采,中国矿产资源耗竭问题愈发突出。本文利用查明资源储量数据,应用Hubbert峰值模型分析了中国十种有色金属矿产的产量峰值年限。结果表明:中国锑矿在2014年就已经到达Hubbert产量峰值,其他9种有色金属矿产将在2050年前后顺次达峰,其中,锡矿、铅矿和锌矿将于2030年前达峰,钴矿、铜矿和铝土矿将于2040年前达峰,钨矿、镍矿和钼矿将在2040年后达峰;除锑矿、钼矿和镍矿外,其他有色金属矿产耗竭程度要高于全球水平。为了有效缓解中国矿产资源耗竭程度,提出几条建议:增强二次资源循环利用强度;加大找矿勘查力度,对不同矿种设置优先勘查次序;增大进口量、拓宽进口来源;加快海外投资布局的步伐。
With the massive exploitation of mineral resources,the problem of depletion of mineral resources in China has become increasingly prominent.In this paper,we use the Hubbert's peak model to analyze the maximum production peak of ten non-ferrous metal minerals in China by using the resource reserves data.The results show that:China's antimony ore has reached the peak of Hubbert's peak production in 2014,and the others will reach the peak one by one before 2050.Tin,lead and zinc will reach their Hubbert's peak production by 2030.Correspondingly,cobalt,copper and bauxite will reach the Hubbert's peak production by2040.Tungsten,nickel and molybdenum will reach the Hubbert's peak production after 2040.The degree of depletion of other non-ferrous metal minerals is higher than the global level except for antimony,molybdenum and nickel.In order to effectively alleviate the depletion of mineral resources in China,this paper proposes four proposals:to enhance the recycling intensity of secondary resources;to increase the intensity of prospecting and exploration,set priority exploration order for different minerals;to increase import volume,broaden import sources;to accelerate the pace of overseas layout and investment.
With the massive exploitation of mineral resources,the problem of depletion of mineral resources in China has become increasingly prominent.In this paper,we use the Hubbert's peak model to analyze the maximum production peak of ten non-ferrous metal minerals in China by using the resource reserves data.The results show that:China's antimony ore has reached the peak of Hubbert's peak production in 2014,and the others will reach the peak one by one before 2050.Tin,lead and zinc will reach their Hubbert's peak production by 2030.Correspondingly,cobalt,copper and bauxite will reach the Hubbert's peak production by2040.Tungsten,nickel and molybdenum will reach the Hubbert's peak production after 2040.The degree of depletion of other non-ferrous metal minerals is higher than the global level except for antimony,molybdenum and nickel.In order to effectively alleviate the depletion of mineral resources in China,this paper proposes four proposals:to enhance the recycling intensity of secondary resources;to increase the intensity of prospecting and exploration,set priority exploration order for different minerals;to increase import volume,broaden import sources;to accelerate the pace of overseas layout and investment.
引文
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[18]CORDELL D,DRANGERT J O,WHITE S.The story of phosphorus:global food security and food for thought[J].Global Environmental Change,2009,19(2):292-305.
[19]CALVO G,VALERO A.Assessing maximum production peak and resource availability of non-fuel mineral resources:analyzing the influence of extractable global resources[J].Resources,Conservation&Recycling,2017,125:208-217.
[20]陆家亮,赵素平,孙玉平,等.中国天然气产量峰值研究及建议[J].天然气工业,2018,38(1):1-9.LU Jialiang,ZHAO Suping,SUN Yuping,et al.Natural gas production peaks in China:research and strategic proposals[J].Natural Gas Industry,2018,38(1):1-9.
[21]李冰心.2016年国内外锡产业发展概况[J].新材料产业,2016(12):32-34.LI Bingxin.Development of Tin industry at home and abroad in 2016[J].Advanced Materials Industry,2016(12):32-34.
[2]王安建,代涛,刘固望.GDP增速的“S”形演变轨迹-增速放缓背景下的中国矿产资源需求趋势[J].地球学报,2016,37(5):563-568.WANG Anjian,DAI Tao,LIU Guwang“S”-curve model of GDP growth rates:China's demand trend for mineral resources in the background of slowdown GDP growth rates[J].Acta Geoscientica Sinica,2016,37(5):563-568.
[3]吴滨.中国有色金属工业节能现状及未来趋势[J].资源科学,2011,33(4):647-652.WU Bin.Current states and development trends of energy conservation in the nonferrous metals industry[J].Resources Science,2011,33(4):647-652.
[4]黄伯云.我国有色金属材料现状及发展战略[J].中国有色金属学报,2004,14(1):122-127.HUANG Boyun.Status and development strategy for China's nonferrous metal materials industry[J].The Chinese Journal of Nonferrous Metals,2004,14(1):122-127.
[5]ILANKOON I M S K,YUAN T,GHORBANI Y,et al.The current state and future directions of percolation leaching in the Chinese mining industry:challenges and opportunities[J].Minerals Engineering,2018,125:206-222.
[6]HUBBERT M K.Energy resources:a report to the Committee on Natural Resources of the National Academy of SciencesNational Research Council[R].National Academy of SciencesNational Research Council,Washington,DC(USA),1962.
[7]BRANDT A R.Testing hubbert[J].Energy Policy,2007,35(5):3074-3088.
[8]黎斌林.全球石油峰值预测及中国应对策略研究[D].北京:中国地质大学(北京),2014.
[9]李莹,李德贵.我国石油产量峰值预测[J].中国能源,2007,29(4):10-12.LI Ying,LI Degui.China's peak oil forecast[J].Energy of China,2007,29(4):10-12.
[10]张凤莲,李朝霞,陈焕杰.全球油气产量趋势分析与预测[J].石油科技论坛,2009,28(6):19-22.ZHANG Fenglian,LI Zhaoxia,CHEN Huanjie.Global oil and natural gas production trend analysis and forecast[J].Oil Forum,2009,28(6):19-22.
[11]王婷婷,黄诚,张琪琛.中国石油峰值预测及其应对策略研究[J].中国矿业,2015,24(12):38-44.WANG Tingting,HUANG Cheng,ZHANG Qichen.The peak of China's oil production forecasting and strategies research[J].China Mining Magazine,2015,24(12):38-44.
[12]王熙博.中国稀土资源产量预测方法研究与应用[D].北京:中国地质大学(北京),2015.
[13]李鹏远.中国黄金供需预测及对策研究[D].北京:中国地质大学(北京),2015.
[14]ROBERTS F,TORRENS I.Analysis of the life cycle of nonferrous minerals[J].Resources Policy,1974,1(1):14-28.
[15]ARNDT R A,ROPER L D.The metals and mineral fuels crisis.Facts and Predictions[EB/OL].[2019-04-06].http:∥www.roperld.com/science/minerals/MetalMinCrisis.pdf,1977.
[16]BARDI U,PAGANI M.Peak Minerals.The Oil Drum,Europe[EB/OL].[2019-04-06].http:∥www.theoildrum.com/node/3086,2008.
[17]GLAISTER B J,MUDD G M.The environmental costs of platinum-PGM mining and sustainability:is the glass half-full or half-empty?[J].Minerals Engineering,2010,23(5):438-450.
[18]CORDELL D,DRANGERT J O,WHITE S.The story of phosphorus:global food security and food for thought[J].Global Environmental Change,2009,19(2):292-305.
[19]CALVO G,VALERO A.Assessing maximum production peak and resource availability of non-fuel mineral resources:analyzing the influence of extractable global resources[J].Resources,Conservation&Recycling,2017,125:208-217.
[20]陆家亮,赵素平,孙玉平,等.中国天然气产量峰值研究及建议[J].天然气工业,2018,38(1):1-9.LU Jialiang,ZHAO Suping,SUN Yuping,et al.Natural gas production peaks in China:research and strategic proposals[J].Natural Gas Industry,2018,38(1):1-9.
[21]李冰心.2016年国内外锡产业发展概况[J].新材料产业,2016(12):32-34.LI Bingxin.Development of Tin industry at home and abroad in 2016[J].Advanced Materials Industry,2016(12):32-34.