3月北半球海冰趋势变化的区域特征及影响因子分析
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摘要
利用海冰密集度资料和海冰范围指数,分析了3月北半球海冰在1979-1995年和1996-2014年2个时间段内的变化趋势以及趋势差异的区域特征.结果表明:北半球3月总海冰范围以稳定速率减少,速率无明显加速.而各个分海域的海冰变化表现出一定的区域差异.其中,巴伦支海海冰在2个时期内以稳定的速率减少;白令海海冰不减反增;鄂霍次克海海冰缩减速度在后期减小;圣劳伦斯湾的海冰范围在90年代中期以前显著增大,后期缓慢缩减. 3月海冰趋势变化的空间特征与同期表面气温和表面风场的趋势变化相一致.
Based on the data of sea ice concentration and using the sea ice extent(SIE) index, the present study investigates the changes in the Northern Hemisphere sea ice trends in March during 1979-1995 and 1996-2014 and their regional features. The results show that although the negative slope of March SIE over the whole Northern Hemisphere did not experience obvious changes with time, pronounced regional differences were present in the sea ice trend and its change in the mid-1990 s. The Barents Sea SIE exhibited a significant downward trend in both periods with a relatively steady rate. The SIE in the Bering Sea showed a positive trend and the slope became steeper after the late 1990 s. The Sea of Okhotsk was subjected to ice loss during both periods with a notable increase in between. The SIE in the Gulf of St. Lawrence showed an upward trend during the earlier period and was dominated by inter-annual fluctuations during the later period. The trends and their changes in the mid-1990 s of the March sea ice were consistent with those in surface air temperature and atmospheric wind.
Based on the data of sea ice concentration and using the sea ice extent(SIE) index, the present study investigates the changes in the Northern Hemisphere sea ice trends in March during 1979-1995 and 1996-2014 and their regional features. The results show that although the negative slope of March SIE over the whole Northern Hemisphere did not experience obvious changes with time, pronounced regional differences were present in the sea ice trend and its change in the mid-1990 s. The Barents Sea SIE exhibited a significant downward trend in both periods with a relatively steady rate. The SIE in the Bering Sea showed a positive trend and the slope became steeper after the late 1990 s. The Sea of Okhotsk was subjected to ice loss during both periods with a notable increase in between. The SIE in the Gulf of St. Lawrence showed an upward trend during the earlier period and was dominated by inter-annual fluctuations during the later period. The trends and their changes in the mid-1990 s of the March sea ice were consistent with those in surface air temperature and atmospheric wind.
引文
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[14] DESER C,TENG H.Evolution of Arctic Sea Ice Concentration Trends and the Role of Atmospheric Circulation Forcing,1979-2007 [J].Geophysical Research Letters,2008,35(2):L02504.
[15] FRANCIS J A,HUNTER E.New Insight Into the Disappearing Arctic Sea Ice [J].Eos Transactions American Geophysical Union,2006,87(46):509-511.
[16] STROEVE J C,SERREZE M C,HOLLAND M M,et al.The Arctic's Rapidly Shrinking Sea Ice Cover:a Research Synthesis [J].Climatic Change,2012,110(3-4):1005-1027.
[17] SANTER B D,WIGLEY T M L,BOYLE J S,et al.Statistical Significance of Trends and Trend Differences in Layer-Average Atmospheric Temperature Time Series [J].Joumal of Geophysical Research:Atmospheres,2000,105(27):7337-7356.
[18] DAY J J,HARGREAVES J C,ANNAN J D,et al.Sources of Multi-Decadal Variability in Arctic Sea Ice Extent [J].Environmental Research Letters,2012,7(3):034011.
[19] ZHANG RONG.Mechanisms for Low-Frequency Variability of Summer Arctic Sea Ice Extent [J].Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences,2015,112(15):4570-4575.
[2] SCREEN J A,SIMMONDS I.Increasing Fall-Winter Energy Loss from the Arctic Ocean and Its Role in Arctic Temperature Amplification [J].Geophysical Research Letters,2010,37(16):L16797.
[3] SCREEN J A,SIMMONDS I.The Central Role of Diminishing Sea Ice in Recent Arctic Temperature Amplification [J].Nature,2010,464(7293):1334-1337.
[4] BENGTSSON L,SEMENOV V A,JOHANNESSEN O M.The Early Twentieth-Century Warming in the Arctic-A Possible Mechanism [J].Journal of Climate,2004,17(20):4045-4057.
[5] SAENKO O A,EBY M,WEAVER A J.The Effect of Sea-Ice Extent in the North Atlantic on the Stability of the Thermohaline Circulation in Global Warming Experiments [J].Climate Dynamics,2004,22(6-7):689-699.
[6] LEVERMANN A,MIGNOT J,NAWRATH S,et al.The Role of Northern Sea Ice Cover for the Weakening of the Thermohaline Circulation Under Global Warming [J].Journal of Climate,2007,20(16):4160-4171.
[7] SERREZE M C,HOLLAND M M,STROEVE J.Perspectives on the Arctic's Shrinking Sea-Ice Cover [J].Science,2007,315(5818):1533-1536.
[8] CAVALIERI D J,PARKINSON C L.Arctic Sea Ice Variability and Trends,1979-2010 [J].The Cryosphere,2012,6:881-889.
[9] PARKINSON C L,CAVALIERI D J.Arctic Sea Ice Variability and Trends,1979-2006 [J].Journal of Geophysical Research,2008,113:C07003.
[10] COMISO J C,PARKINSON C L,GERSTEN R,et al.Accelerated Decline in the Arctic Sea Ice Cover [J].Geophysical Research Letters,2008,35:L01703.
[11] STROEVE J C,KATTSOV V,BARRETT A,et al.Trends in Arctic Sea Ice Extent from CMIP5,CMIP3 and Observations [J].Geophysical Research Letters,2012,39,L16502.
[12] 汪代维,杨修群.北极海冰变化的时间和空间型 [J].气象学报,2002,60(2):129-138.
[13] 王冠琳,刘琳,于卫东.白令海和鄂霍次克海的海冰偶极子及其对大气环流的影响 [J].海洋科学进展,2008,26(3):267-276.
[14] DESER C,TENG H.Evolution of Arctic Sea Ice Concentration Trends and the Role of Atmospheric Circulation Forcing,1979-2007 [J].Geophysical Research Letters,2008,35(2):L02504.
[15] FRANCIS J A,HUNTER E.New Insight Into the Disappearing Arctic Sea Ice [J].Eos Transactions American Geophysical Union,2006,87(46):509-511.
[16] STROEVE J C,SERREZE M C,HOLLAND M M,et al.The Arctic's Rapidly Shrinking Sea Ice Cover:a Research Synthesis [J].Climatic Change,2012,110(3-4):1005-1027.
[17] SANTER B D,WIGLEY T M L,BOYLE J S,et al.Statistical Significance of Trends and Trend Differences in Layer-Average Atmospheric Temperature Time Series [J].Joumal of Geophysical Research:Atmospheres,2000,105(27):7337-7356.
[18] DAY J J,HARGREAVES J C,ANNAN J D,et al.Sources of Multi-Decadal Variability in Arctic Sea Ice Extent [J].Environmental Research Letters,2012,7(3):034011.
[19] ZHANG RONG.Mechanisms for Low-Frequency Variability of Summer Arctic Sea Ice Extent [J].Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences,2015,112(15):4570-4575.