长江经济带水土资源约束的动态转换机制及空间异质性分析——基于平滑面板转换模型和趋势面的检验
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摘要
"资源尾效"和"资源诅咒"是资源对经济增长约束的两种不同状态,分别表示资源相对不足和资源相对丰裕下对经济增长的约束作用。在一定条件下,二者是可以转换且这种转换存在空间异质性。因此针对资源丰裕度不同和发展阶段不同的异质性区域而言,研究其资源所起的约束作用,就显得很有政策含义。本文利用生产函数曲线重构资源约束的两种状态,并基于新古典增长理论建立起二者转换的判别条件及转换机制模型。通过选取长江经济带11个省市2003—2016年的面板数据,使用平滑面板转换(PSTR)模型考察了"资源尾效"和"资源诅咒"之间的转换机制,并且在此基础上运用趋势面分析方法分析其转换的空间异质性。结果表明:①理论模型推导发现,在规模报酬不变等假设条件下,当资源增长弹性不等于2/3时,"资源尾效"和"资源诅咒"可以相互转换;②随着资源投入量的增加,长江经济带水土资源约束作用表现由"资源尾效"向"资源诅咒"转换,其水土资源投入量的转换点分别为203. 00亿m3和134. 00千hm2;③长江经济带水土资源约束的空间分布总体趋势刚好相反,水资源约束空间分布在2009年发生突变,而土地资源约束作用空间分布在时间上的变化趋势却并不明显。本文的启示在于,水土资源约束对长江经济带的经济增长产生了重要影响,要保证长江经济带经济的高质量发展,必须关注水土资源在经济增长中所起的作用;要合理利用水土资源使得资源约束的两种状态之间的转换更加平缓,尽量减少资源对经济增长的约束;另外要重点关注资源约束区域差异,针对不同地区制定有效的措施。
The resource drag and resource curse represent two different states of resource constraints to economic growth which indicate the constraints of the relative shortage and the relative abundance on economic growth respectively. Under certain conditions,the resource drag and the resource curse can be converted,but there is spatial heterogeneity in the transformation. Therefore,it is very meaningful to study the constraints of the resources in the heterogeneous regions with different resource abundance and different stages of economic development. The two states of resource constraint are reconstructed by production function curve,and the model with the discriminant condition and transformation mechanism of the two transformations are established based on neoclassical economic growth theory. Based on the panel data of 11 provinces in the Yangtze River Economic Zone from 2003 to 2016,we used the panel smooth transition regression model and trend surface analysis to test it. The results showed that: through the induction of the model,under the assumption of constant returns to scale and other assumptions,the resource drag and resource curse could be converted to each other when the elasticity of resource growth was not equal to 2/3. The constraint of water and land resource in the Yangtze River Economic Zone was transformed from resource drag to resource curse,and its breaking points were 20. 3 billion m3 and 134 000 hm2 of water and land resources input amount respectively. The general trend of the spatial distribution of the constraints of water and land resources was opposite in the Yangtze River Economic Zone. The break point of the spatial difference of the constraint of water resources was in 2009,while the spatial variation of land resources constraint was not obvious. The paper proposed that,the restriction of land and water resources was important to the economic growth in the Yangtze River Economic Zone. To ensure the high quality development of the Yangtze River Economic Zone,we must pay attention to the role of water and land resources in economic growth. It is necessary to reasonably use water and land resources so as to realize more smooth transformation between the two states of resources constrained,and to minimize the constraint of resources on economic growth. We should pay attention to resource constraints and assign differentiated policies to different regions.
The resource drag and resource curse represent two different states of resource constraints to economic growth which indicate the constraints of the relative shortage and the relative abundance on economic growth respectively. Under certain conditions,the resource drag and the resource curse can be converted,but there is spatial heterogeneity in the transformation. Therefore,it is very meaningful to study the constraints of the resources in the heterogeneous regions with different resource abundance and different stages of economic development. The two states of resource constraint are reconstructed by production function curve,and the model with the discriminant condition and transformation mechanism of the two transformations are established based on neoclassical economic growth theory. Based on the panel data of 11 provinces in the Yangtze River Economic Zone from 2003 to 2016,we used the panel smooth transition regression model and trend surface analysis to test it. The results showed that: through the induction of the model,under the assumption of constant returns to scale and other assumptions,the resource drag and resource curse could be converted to each other when the elasticity of resource growth was not equal to 2/3. The constraint of water and land resource in the Yangtze River Economic Zone was transformed from resource drag to resource curse,and its breaking points were 20. 3 billion m3 and 134 000 hm2 of water and land resources input amount respectively. The general trend of the spatial distribution of the constraints of water and land resources was opposite in the Yangtze River Economic Zone. The break point of the spatial difference of the constraint of water resources was in 2009,while the spatial variation of land resources constraint was not obvious. The paper proposed that,the restriction of land and water resources was important to the economic growth in the Yangtze River Economic Zone. To ensure the high quality development of the Yangtze River Economic Zone,we must pay attention to the role of water and land resources in economic growth. It is necessary to reasonably use water and land resources so as to realize more smooth transformation between the two states of resources constrained,and to minimize the constraint of resources on economic growth. We should pay attention to resource constraints and assign differentiated policies to different regions.
引文
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[3]龚六堂.动态经济学方法[M].北京:北京大学出版社,2002.
[4]NORDHAUS W D,STAVINS R N,WEITZMAN M L.Lethal Model2:the limits to growth revisited[J].Brookings papers on economic activity,1992(2):1-59.
[5]URI N D.A reconsideration of effect of energy scarcity on economic growth[J].Energy,1995,20(1):1-12.
[6]BRUVOLL A,GLOMSROD S,VENNEMO H.Environmental drag:evidence from Norway[J].Ecological economics,1999,30(2):235-249.
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[8]谢书玲,王铮,薛俊波.中国经济发展中水土资源的“增长尾效”分析[J].管理世界,2005(7):22-25.
[9]刘耀彬,陈斐.中国城市化进程中的资源消耗“尾效”分析[J].中国工业经济,2007(11):48-55.
[10]DAVIS G A.The resource drag[J].International economics&economic policy,2011,8(2):155-176.
[11]李影,沈坤荣.能源结构约束与中国经济增长——基于能源“尾效”的计量检验[J].资源科学,2010,32(11):2192-2199.
[12]米国芳,长青.能源结构和碳排放约束下中国经济增长“尾效”研究[J].干旱区资源与环境,2017,31(2):50-55.
[13]王家庭.中国区域经济增长中的土地资源尾效研究[J].经济地理,2010,30(12):2067-2072.
[14]章恒全,张陈俊,张万力.水资源约束与中国经济增长——基于水资源“阻力”的计量检验[J].产业经济研究,2016(4):87-99.
[15]刘耀彬,杨新梅,周瑞辉,等.中部地区经济增长中的水土资源“增长尾效”对比研究[J].资源科学,2011,33(9):1781-1787.
[16]SACHS J D,WAMER A M.Natural resource abundance and economic growth[R].Cambridge:National Bureau of Economic Research,1995.
[17]PAPYRAKIS E,GERLAGH R.The resource curse hypothesis and its transmission channels[J].Journal of comparative economics,2004,32(1):181-193.
[18]徐康宁,王剑.自然资源丰裕程度与经济发展水平关系的研究[J].经济研究,2006(1):78-89.
[19]邵帅,齐中英.西部地区的能源开发与经济增长——基于“资源诅咒”假说的实证分析[J].经济研究,2008(4):147-160.
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[22]ALEXEEV M,CONRAD R.The elusive curse of oil[J].Review of economics&statistics,2009,91(3):586-598.
[23]方颖,纪衎,赵扬.中国是否存在“资源诅咒”[J].世界经济,2011(4):144-160.
[24]KONTE M.A curse or a blessing?natural resources in a multiple growth regimes analysis[J].Applied economics,2013,45(26):3760-3769.
[25]邵帅,范美婷,杨莉莉.资源产业依赖如何影响经济发展效率?——有条件资源诅咒假说的检验及解释[J].管理世界,2013(2):32-63.
[26]LIU Y B.Is the natural resource production a blessing or curse for China’s urbanization?evidence from a space-time panel data model[J].Economic modelling,2014,38:404-416.
[27]何雄浪,姜泽林.自然资源禀赋与经济增长:资源诅咒还是资源福音?——基于劳动力结构的一个理论与实证分析框架[J].财经研究,2016,42(12):27-38.
[28]SOLOW R M.A contribution to the theory of economic growth[J].Quarterly journal of economics,1956,70(1):65-94.
[29]SWAN T W.Economic growth and capital accumulation[J].Economic record,2010,32(2):334-361.
[30]MALTHUS T R.An essay on the principle of population[M].London:Cambridge University Press,1978.
[31]GONZALEZ A,TERASVIRTA T,DIJK D V.Panel smooth transition regression models[R].Quantitative Finance Research Centre,2005.
[32]HANSEN B E.Threshold effects in non-dynamic panels:estimation,testing,and inference[J].Journal of econometrics,1999,93(2):345-368.
[33]彭山桂,汪应宏,陈晨,等.趋势面分析方法在房地产估价中的应用研究[J].商业时代,2009(8):93-94.
[34]张军,吴桂英,张吉鹏.中国省际物质资本存量估算:1952-2000[J].经济研究,2004(10):35-44.
[35]DIJK D V,TERASVIRTA T,FRANSES P H.Smooth transition autoregressive models:a survey of recent developments[J].Econometric reviews,2002,21(1):1-47.
[2]AUTY R.Sustaining development in mineral economics:the resource curse thesis[M].London:Routledge,1993.
[3]龚六堂.动态经济学方法[M].北京:北京大学出版社,2002.
[4]NORDHAUS W D,STAVINS R N,WEITZMAN M L.Lethal Model2:the limits to growth revisited[J].Brookings papers on economic activity,1992(2):1-59.
[5]URI N D.A reconsideration of effect of energy scarcity on economic growth[J].Energy,1995,20(1):1-12.
[6]BRUVOLL A,GLOMSROD S,VENNEMO H.Environmental drag:evidence from Norway[J].Ecological economics,1999,30(2):235-249.
[7]薛俊波,王铮,朱建武,等.中国经济增长的“尾效”分析[J].财经研究,2004,30(9):5-14.
[8]谢书玲,王铮,薛俊波.中国经济发展中水土资源的“增长尾效”分析[J].管理世界,2005(7):22-25.
[9]刘耀彬,陈斐.中国城市化进程中的资源消耗“尾效”分析[J].中国工业经济,2007(11):48-55.
[10]DAVIS G A.The resource drag[J].International economics&economic policy,2011,8(2):155-176.
[11]李影,沈坤荣.能源结构约束与中国经济增长——基于能源“尾效”的计量检验[J].资源科学,2010,32(11):2192-2199.
[12]米国芳,长青.能源结构和碳排放约束下中国经济增长“尾效”研究[J].干旱区资源与环境,2017,31(2):50-55.
[13]王家庭.中国区域经济增长中的土地资源尾效研究[J].经济地理,2010,30(12):2067-2072.
[14]章恒全,张陈俊,张万力.水资源约束与中国经济增长——基于水资源“阻力”的计量检验[J].产业经济研究,2016(4):87-99.
[15]刘耀彬,杨新梅,周瑞辉,等.中部地区经济增长中的水土资源“增长尾效”对比研究[J].资源科学,2011,33(9):1781-1787.
[16]SACHS J D,WAMER A M.Natural resource abundance and economic growth[R].Cambridge:National Bureau of Economic Research,1995.
[17]PAPYRAKIS E,GERLAGH R.The resource curse hypothesis and its transmission channels[J].Journal of comparative economics,2004,32(1):181-193.
[18]徐康宁,王剑.自然资源丰裕程度与经济发展水平关系的研究[J].经济研究,2006(1):78-89.
[19]邵帅,齐中英.西部地区的能源开发与经济增长——基于“资源诅咒”假说的实证分析[J].经济研究,2008(4):147-160.
[20]邵帅,齐中英.自然资源开发、区域技术创新与经济增长——一个对“资源诅咒”的机理解释及实证检验[J].中南财经政法大学学报,2008(4):3-9.
[21]邵帅,杨莉莉.自然资源丰裕、资源产业依赖与中国区域经济增长[J].管理世界,2010(9):26-44.
[22]ALEXEEV M,CONRAD R.The elusive curse of oil[J].Review of economics&statistics,2009,91(3):586-598.
[23]方颖,纪衎,赵扬.中国是否存在“资源诅咒”[J].世界经济,2011(4):144-160.
[24]KONTE M.A curse or a blessing?natural resources in a multiple growth regimes analysis[J].Applied economics,2013,45(26):3760-3769.
[25]邵帅,范美婷,杨莉莉.资源产业依赖如何影响经济发展效率?——有条件资源诅咒假说的检验及解释[J].管理世界,2013(2):32-63.
[26]LIU Y B.Is the natural resource production a blessing or curse for China’s urbanization?evidence from a space-time panel data model[J].Economic modelling,2014,38:404-416.
[27]何雄浪,姜泽林.自然资源禀赋与经济增长:资源诅咒还是资源福音?——基于劳动力结构的一个理论与实证分析框架[J].财经研究,2016,42(12):27-38.
[28]SOLOW R M.A contribution to the theory of economic growth[J].Quarterly journal of economics,1956,70(1):65-94.
[29]SWAN T W.Economic growth and capital accumulation[J].Economic record,2010,32(2):334-361.
[30]MALTHUS T R.An essay on the principle of population[M].London:Cambridge University Press,1978.
[31]GONZALEZ A,TERASVIRTA T,DIJK D V.Panel smooth transition regression models[R].Quantitative Finance Research Centre,2005.
[32]HANSEN B E.Threshold effects in non-dynamic panels:estimation,testing,and inference[J].Journal of econometrics,1999,93(2):345-368.
[33]彭山桂,汪应宏,陈晨,等.趋势面分析方法在房地产估价中的应用研究[J].商业时代,2009(8):93-94.
[34]张军,吴桂英,张吉鹏.中国省际物质资本存量估算:1952-2000[J].经济研究,2004(10):35-44.
[35]DIJK D V,TERASVIRTA T,FRANSES P H.Smooth transition autoregressive models:a survey of recent developments[J].Econometric reviews,2002,21(1):1-47.