德国失稳的原因及其影响
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摘要
自欧洲难民危机以来,尤其是2017年9月德国大选之后,德国出现了日渐失稳,即稳定性失效的状态。造成德国失稳的原因是多方面的,难民危机无疑是催化剂,而右翼民粹主义政党德国选择党利用难民危机带来的社会问题异军突起,则是固化剂,但是,深入分析得出,德国社会发生的变迁,即实际存在的或感知到的社会不平等的加剧是最根本性的原因。德国日渐失去稳定性,这带来了多方面的负面影响,包括:德国政府的治理能力下降、德国在欧盟内的领导力与投入受限和德国在国际层面的作为缺乏国内民意支撑等。综合来看,德国现在的不稳定将不是一个暂时的、短期内会消失的现象,而是一个"新常态",其对德国在欧盟以及国际层面的投入都会产生持久的影响。
Since the outbreak of the European refugee crisis, especially after the German general election in September 2017,Germany has become increasingly unstable, that is, the state of failed stability. The causes of instability in Germany are multifaceted.The refugee crisis is undoubtedly a catalyst, but the emerging social problems caused by the right-wing populist party-the AfD-due to the refugee crisis, is the fatal blow. However, in-depth analysis shows that the most fundamental cause is Germany's social shift, that is, the actual or perceived increase in social inequality. Germany's growing loss of stability has brought about a number of negative effects, including the decline of the German government's governing capability, Germany's hindered leadership and input in the EU, and Germany's lack of domestic public support at the international level. On the whole, Germany's current instability will not be a temporary, short-term phenomenon, but a "new normal", which will have a lasting impact on Germany's investment in the EU and international levels.
Since the outbreak of the European refugee crisis, especially after the German general election in September 2017,Germany has become increasingly unstable, that is, the state of failed stability. The causes of instability in Germany are multifaceted.The refugee crisis is undoubtedly a catalyst, but the emerging social problems caused by the right-wing populist party-the AfD-due to the refugee crisis, is the fatal blow. However, in-depth analysis shows that the most fundamental cause is Germany's social shift, that is, the actual or perceived increase in social inequality. Germany's growing loss of stability has brought about a number of negative effects, including the decline of the German government's governing capability, Germany's hindered leadership and input in the EU, and Germany's lack of domestic public support at the international level. On the whole, Germany's current instability will not be a temporary, short-term phenomenon, but a "new normal", which will have a lasting impact on Germany's investment in the EU and international levels.
引文
[1]丁纯、苏升:《在金融危机中德国经济一枝独秀的表现、原因和前景》,《德国研究》,2011年第4期,第27-35页。
[2]郑春荣:《欧盟难民问题难解的原因及其影响》,《当代世界》,2018年第9期,第18-22页。
[3]Marcel Fratzscher, Warum Deutschlandimmer ungleicher wird, Munchen, 2016.
[4]Dorothee Spannagel,"Soziale Ungleichheit:Ausmass, Entwicklung, Folgen", WSI Verteilungsmonitor, Juni 2016, https://www.boeckler.de/pdf/wsi_vm_faqs_2016.pdf.
[5] Dina Hummelsheim Doss, Objektive und subjektive Sicherheit in Deutschland.Eine wissenschaftliche Annaherung an das Sicherheitsgefuhl, Bonn:Bundeszentrale fur Politische Bildung, 4 August, 2017.
[6]Robert Vehrkamp and Wolfgang Merkel,Populistische Einstellungen bei Wahlern und Nichtwahlern in Deutschland 2018, Gutersloh:Bertelsmann-Stiftung, 2018.
[7]Lars Vogel,"Maintaining the Permissive Consensus in Times of Crises:The Europeanness of Germany's Political Elites, 2007-2014", Historical Social Research, 2016(41)4, pp. 61-85.
[8]"European Council conclusions", 13-14December,2018;"Statement of the Euro Summit",14December, 2018.
[9] Korber-Stiftung, Einmischen oder zuruckhalten? Eine reprasentative Umfrage im Auftrag der Korber-Stiftung zur Sicht der Deutschen auf die AuBenpolitik, Aktualisierung 2017, Hamburg, 2017.
[2]郑春荣:《欧盟难民问题难解的原因及其影响》,《当代世界》,2018年第9期,第18-22页。
[3]Marcel Fratzscher, Warum Deutschlandimmer ungleicher wird, Munchen, 2016.
[4]Dorothee Spannagel,"Soziale Ungleichheit:Ausmass, Entwicklung, Folgen", WSI Verteilungsmonitor, Juni 2016, https://www.boeckler.de/pdf/wsi_vm_faqs_2016.pdf.
[5] Dina Hummelsheim Doss, Objektive und subjektive Sicherheit in Deutschland.Eine wissenschaftliche Annaherung an das Sicherheitsgefuhl, Bonn:Bundeszentrale fur Politische Bildung, 4 August, 2017.
[6]Robert Vehrkamp and Wolfgang Merkel,Populistische Einstellungen bei Wahlern und Nichtwahlern in Deutschland 2018, Gutersloh:Bertelsmann-Stiftung, 2018.
[7]Lars Vogel,"Maintaining the Permissive Consensus in Times of Crises:The Europeanness of Germany's Political Elites, 2007-2014", Historical Social Research, 2016(41)4, pp. 61-85.
[8]"European Council conclusions", 13-14December,2018;"Statement of the Euro Summit",14December, 2018.
[9] Korber-Stiftung, Einmischen oder zuruckhalten? Eine reprasentative Umfrage im Auftrag der Korber-Stiftung zur Sicht der Deutschen auf die AuBenpolitik, Aktualisierung 2017, Hamburg, 2017.