雾霾污染对商业健康保险发展的影响
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摘要
雾霾污染不仅影响了中国经济增长的质量和政府形象,也严重影响了公众的健康,使人们承受着"无法呼吸的痛"。商业健康保险是中国社会保障体系的重要一环,公众对雾霾污染影响健康的关注增加了对健康保险的需求。研究雾霾污染与商业健康保险发展的关系对制定治霾政策和完善社会保障体系具有重大的意义。然而,已有文献仅从微观视角研究空气污染对商业健康保险购买决策的影响,忽视了空气污染的空间溢出效应,可能导致实证结果的偏误。因此,本文基于2004—2015年全国30个省份的面板数据,通过空间Durbin模型实证研究雾霾污染对商业健康保险发展的直接影响与空间溢出效应。研究发现:①雾霾污染对商业健康保险发展没有显著的直接影响,原因在于公众对雾霾污染影响健康的主观认知具有时滞性,只有公众充分认识到雾霾污染影响健康,才会产生购买商业健康保险决策,进而对商业健康保险发展产生直接影响。通过分阶段识别雾霾影响,发现雾霾污染对商业健康保险发展的直接影响在2010年以后显著,这契合了中国雾霾污染的演进历史。②雾霾污染对商业健康保险发展有正向显著的空间溢出效应,其他地区雾霾污染的加重,会促进本地区商业健康保险的发展。③从空间分布来看,中部和东部地区的雾霾污染对商业健康保险发展的空间溢出效应明显大于西部地区。为解决日益严重的雾霾污染问题,需要进行科学的顶层设计,转变经济发展方式,实现产业结构优化升级。建立区域间"联防联控"的协同机制,构建统一的环境污染监测平台,实行区域环境信息共享机制。此外,需要完善商业健康保险相关政策,以满足公众的需求,助推"健康中国"建设。
The haze pollution not only affects the quality of China's economic growth and the image of the government,but also seriously affects the public's health and imposes‘inability to breathe'on people. Commercial health insurance is an important part of China's social security system. Public attention on the outcomes of haze pollution to health has increased the demand for commercial health insurance. Studying the relationship between haze pollution and the development of commercial health insurance is of great significance for making haze-controlling policy and improving social security system. However,the existing literature only studies the impact of air pollution on commercial health insurance purchase decisions from a micro perspective,ignoring the spatial spillover effect of air pollution,which may lead to bias in empirical results. Therefore,based on the panel data of 30 provinces in China from 2004 to2015,this paper empirically studies the direct influence and spillover effect of haze pollution on the development of commercial health insurance with the spatial Durbin model. The results show that: ① Haze pollution does not have significant direct influences on the development of commercial health insurance. The reason is that the public's subjective cognition that haze pollution affects health is time-delay. Only when the public fully realizes that haze affects their health will it affect their decision to purchase commercial health insurance,which will have a direct influence on the development of commercial health insurance. By identifying the influence of haze pollution in stages,it is found that haze pollution had a positive significant direct influence on commercial health insurance after 2010,which was in line with the changes of haze in China. ② Haze pollution has a positive significant spatial spillover effect on the development of commercial health insurance. The intensification of haze pollution in other regions will promote the local development of commercial health insurance. ③From the perspective of spatial distribution,the spatial spillover effect of haze pollution on commercial health insurance development in central and eastern China is significantly greater than that in the western region. To solve the increasingly serious haze pollution,implementing scientific top-level design,transforming the economic development mode,and optimizing and upgrading the industrial structure are especially needed. Moreover,we should establish a synergy mechanism for‘joint prevention and control ' between regions,build a unified environmental pollution monitoring platform,and implement a regional environmental information sharing mechanism. In addition,the policies related to commercial health insurance should be perfected to meet the needs of the public so as to promote the construction of‘healthy China'.
The haze pollution not only affects the quality of China's economic growth and the image of the government,but also seriously affects the public's health and imposes‘inability to breathe'on people. Commercial health insurance is an important part of China's social security system. Public attention on the outcomes of haze pollution to health has increased the demand for commercial health insurance. Studying the relationship between haze pollution and the development of commercial health insurance is of great significance for making haze-controlling policy and improving social security system. However,the existing literature only studies the impact of air pollution on commercial health insurance purchase decisions from a micro perspective,ignoring the spatial spillover effect of air pollution,which may lead to bias in empirical results. Therefore,based on the panel data of 30 provinces in China from 2004 to2015,this paper empirically studies the direct influence and spillover effect of haze pollution on the development of commercial health insurance with the spatial Durbin model. The results show that: ① Haze pollution does not have significant direct influences on the development of commercial health insurance. The reason is that the public's subjective cognition that haze pollution affects health is time-delay. Only when the public fully realizes that haze affects their health will it affect their decision to purchase commercial health insurance,which will have a direct influence on the development of commercial health insurance. By identifying the influence of haze pollution in stages,it is found that haze pollution had a positive significant direct influence on commercial health insurance after 2010,which was in line with the changes of haze in China. ② Haze pollution has a positive significant spatial spillover effect on the development of commercial health insurance. The intensification of haze pollution in other regions will promote the local development of commercial health insurance. ③From the perspective of spatial distribution,the spatial spillover effect of haze pollution on commercial health insurance development in central and eastern China is significantly greater than that in the western region. To solve the increasingly serious haze pollution,implementing scientific top-level design,transforming the economic development mode,and optimizing and upgrading the industrial structure are especially needed. Moreover,we should establish a synergy mechanism for‘joint prevention and control ' between regions,build a unified environmental pollution monitoring platform,and implement a regional environmental information sharing mechanism. In addition,the policies related to commercial health insurance should be perfected to meet the needs of the public so as to promote the construction of‘healthy China'.
引文
[1]白俊红，聂亮．环境分权是否真的加剧了雾霾污染?[J]．中国人口·资源与环境，2017,27(12):59-69.
[2]魏下海，林涛，张宁，等．无法呼吸的痛:雾霾对个体生产率的影响——来自中国职业足球运动员的微观证据[J]．财经研究，2017(7):4-19.
[3]GUO Y M,ZENG H M,ZHENG R S,et al. Lung cancer incidence and ambient air pollution in China:a spatial age-period cohort study1990-2009[J]. The Lancet,2015,386:S5.
[4]严雅雪，齐绍洲．外商直接投资对中国城市雾霾(PM2. 5)污染的时空效应检验[J]．中国人口·资源与环境，2017,27(4):68-77.
[5]刘宏，王俊．中国居民医疗保险购买行为研究——基于商业健康保险的角度[J]．经济学(季刊)，2012,11(4):1525-1548.
[6]彭浩然，郑倩昀，呙玉红．中国社会医疗保险扩张会促进商业健康保险发展吗?[J]．金融研究，2017(5):97-110.
[7]马丽梅，张晓．中国雾霾污染的空间效应及经济能源结构影响[J]．中国工业经济，2014(4):19-31.
[8]邵帅，李欣，曹建华，等．中国雾霾污染治理的经济政策选择——基于空间溢出效应的视角[J]．经济研究，2016(9):73-88.
[9]陈诗一，陈登科．雾霾污染、政府治理与经济高质量发展[J]．经济研究，2018(2):20-34.
[10]史长宽．雾霾对外商直接投资的影响——基于省级面板数据的经验研究[J]．中南财经政法大学学报，2014(4):119-125.
[11]谢元博，陈娟，李巍．雾霾重污染期间北京居民对高浓度PM2. 5持续暴露的健康风险及其损害价值评估[J]．环境科学，2014(1):1-8.
[12]李根生，韩民春．雾霾污染对城市居民健康支出的影响分析[J]．中国卫生经济，2015(7):74-76.
[13]EBENSTEIN A,FAN M Y,GREENSTONE M,et al. Growth,pollution,and life expectancy:China from 1991-2012[J].American economic review,2015,105:226-231.
[14]HE J X,LIU H M,SALVO A. Severe air pollution and labor productivity:evidence from industrial towns in China[J]. American economic journal:applied economics,2019,11(1):173-201.
[15]郭永济，张谊浩．空气质量会影响股票市场吗?[J]．金融研究，2016(2):71-85.
[16]锁凌燕，完颜瑞云，陈滔．我国商业健康保险地区发展失衡现状及原因研究[J]．保险研究，2015(1):42-53.
[17]完颜瑞云，陈滔．文化因素影响寿险消费吗?——来自中国大陆地区的证据[J]．上海财经大学学报，2013,15(4):57-64.
[18]THOMASSON M. The importance of group coverage:how tax policy shaped U. S. health insurance[J]. American economic review,2003,93(4):1373-1384.
[19]CHANG T Y,HUANG W,WANG Y X. Something in the air:pollution and the demand for health insurance[J]. Review of economic studies,2018,85(3):1609-1634.
[20]HOSSEIN H M,KANEKO S. Can environment quality spread through institutions[J]. Energy policy,2013,56:312-321.
[21]陈波，颜静雯，罗颖妮．雾霾会促进公众绿色投资意愿么?——基于SEM的实证研究[J]．中国人口·资源与环境，2019,29(3):40-49.
[22]蔡李晖．城市居民雾霾感知对日常游憩行为意愿的影响研究——以杭州主城区为例[D]．杭州:浙江工商大学，2017:9-11.
[23]张爱平，虞虎．雾霾影响下旅京游客风险感知与不完全规避行为分析[J]．资源科学，2017,39(6):1148-1159.
[24]李聪颖，黄一哲，李敢．雾霾天气对出行行为的影响机理研究[J]．西安建筑科技大学学报(自然科学版)，2015,47(5):728-733.
[25]ZHENG S Q,WANG J H,SUN C,et al. Air pollution lowers Chinese urbanites’expressed happiness on social media[J]. Nature human behaviour,2018,4(2):1-9.
[26]仪垂林，孙玲玲．中国股票市场参与者行为分析与启示——基于行为金融理论的视角[J]．江淮论坛，2006(1):21-25,96.
[27]曾康霖．解读行为金融学[J]．经济学动态，2003(6):59-61.
[28]BORDALO P, GENNAIOLI N, SHLEIFER A. Salience and consumer choice[J]. Journal of political economy,2013,121(5),803-843.
[29]DANIEL A,MATTHEW L. Naivete,projection bias,and habit formation in gym attendance[J]. Management science,2014,61(1),146-160.
[30]FRANCESCO T,ROSATI M V,MANUELA C, et al. Plasma cortisol levels and workers exposed to urban pollutants[J]. Industrial health,2003,41(4):320-326.
[31]伍骏骞，方师乐，李谷成，等．中国农业机械化发展水平对粮食产量的空间溢出效应分析——基于跨区作业的视角[J]．中国农村经济，2017(6):44-57.
[32]方师乐，卫龙宝，伍骏骞．农业机械化的空间溢出效应及其分布规律[J]．管理世界，2017(11):65-78.
[33]伍骏骞，阮建青，徐广彤．经济集聚、经济距离与农民增收:直接影响与空间溢出效应[J]．经济学(季刊)，2016(10):297-320.
[34]TOBLER W R. A computer movie simulating urban growth in the detroit region[J]. Economic geography,1970,46:234-240.
[35]贾男，马俊龙．非携带式医保对农村劳动力流动的锁定效应研究[J]．管理世界，2015(9):82-91.
[36]汤晓莉，姚岚．我国基本医疗保险可携带性现状分析[J]．中国卫生经济，2011,30(1):53-55.
[37]LESAGE J P,PACE R K. Introduction to spatial econometrics,boca raton[M]. Boca Raton,Florida:CRC Press,2009.
[38]邵帅，张可，豆建民．经济集聚的节能减排效应:理论与中国经验[J]．管理世界，2019,35(1):36-60,226.
[39]田相辉，张秀生．空间外部性的识别问题[J]．统计研究，2013,30(9):94-100.
[40]李婧，谭清美，白俊红．中国区域创新生产的空间计量分析——基于静态与动态空间面板模型的实证研究[J]．管理世界，2010(7):43-55,65.
[41]龙小宁，朱艳丽，蔡伟贤，李少民．基于空间计量模型的中国县级政府间税收竞争的实证分析[J]．经济研究，2014(8):41-53.
[42]吴玉鸣．工业研发、产学合作与创新绩效的空间面板计量分析[J]．科研管理，2015,36(4):118-127.
[43]蒋俊朋，田国强，郭沛．中国区域财政支农投入:地区差距的度量及分解[J]．中国农村经济，2011(8):33-40.
[44]胡志高，李光勤，曹建华．环境规制视角下的区域大气污染联合治理——分区方案设计、协同状态评价及影响因素分析[J]．中国工业经济，2019(5):24-42.
[45]康雨．贸易开放程度对雾霾的影响分析——基于中国省级面板数据的空间计量研究[J]．经济科学，2016(1):114-125.
[2]魏下海，林涛，张宁，等．无法呼吸的痛:雾霾对个体生产率的影响——来自中国职业足球运动员的微观证据[J]．财经研究，2017(7):4-19.
[3]GUO Y M,ZENG H M,ZHENG R S,et al. Lung cancer incidence and ambient air pollution in China:a spatial age-period cohort study1990-2009[J]. The Lancet,2015,386:S5.
[4]严雅雪，齐绍洲．外商直接投资对中国城市雾霾(PM2. 5)污染的时空效应检验[J]．中国人口·资源与环境，2017,27(4):68-77.
[5]刘宏，王俊．中国居民医疗保险购买行为研究——基于商业健康保险的角度[J]．经济学(季刊)，2012,11(4):1525-1548.
[6]彭浩然，郑倩昀，呙玉红．中国社会医疗保险扩张会促进商业健康保险发展吗?[J]．金融研究，2017(5):97-110.
[7]马丽梅，张晓．中国雾霾污染的空间效应及经济能源结构影响[J]．中国工业经济，2014(4):19-31.
[8]邵帅，李欣，曹建华，等．中国雾霾污染治理的经济政策选择——基于空间溢出效应的视角[J]．经济研究，2016(9):73-88.
[9]陈诗一，陈登科．雾霾污染、政府治理与经济高质量发展[J]．经济研究，2018(2):20-34.
[10]史长宽．雾霾对外商直接投资的影响——基于省级面板数据的经验研究[J]．中南财经政法大学学报，2014(4):119-125.
[11]谢元博，陈娟，李巍．雾霾重污染期间北京居民对高浓度PM2. 5持续暴露的健康风险及其损害价值评估[J]．环境科学，2014(1):1-8.
[12]李根生，韩民春．雾霾污染对城市居民健康支出的影响分析[J]．中国卫生经济，2015(7):74-76.
[13]EBENSTEIN A,FAN M Y,GREENSTONE M,et al. Growth,pollution,and life expectancy:China from 1991-2012[J].American economic review,2015,105:226-231.
[14]HE J X,LIU H M,SALVO A. Severe air pollution and labor productivity:evidence from industrial towns in China[J]. American economic journal:applied economics,2019,11(1):173-201.
[15]郭永济，张谊浩．空气质量会影响股票市场吗?[J]．金融研究，2016(2):71-85.
[16]锁凌燕，完颜瑞云，陈滔．我国商业健康保险地区发展失衡现状及原因研究[J]．保险研究，2015(1):42-53.
[17]完颜瑞云，陈滔．文化因素影响寿险消费吗?——来自中国大陆地区的证据[J]．上海财经大学学报，2013,15(4):57-64.
[18]THOMASSON M. The importance of group coverage:how tax policy shaped U. S. health insurance[J]. American economic review,2003,93(4):1373-1384.
[19]CHANG T Y,HUANG W,WANG Y X. Something in the air:pollution and the demand for health insurance[J]. Review of economic studies,2018,85(3):1609-1634.
[20]HOSSEIN H M,KANEKO S. Can environment quality spread through institutions[J]. Energy policy,2013,56:312-321.
[21]陈波，颜静雯，罗颖妮．雾霾会促进公众绿色投资意愿么?——基于SEM的实证研究[J]．中国人口·资源与环境，2019,29(3):40-49.
[22]蔡李晖．城市居民雾霾感知对日常游憩行为意愿的影响研究——以杭州主城区为例[D]．杭州:浙江工商大学，2017:9-11.
[23]张爱平，虞虎．雾霾影响下旅京游客风险感知与不完全规避行为分析[J]．资源科学，2017,39(6):1148-1159.
[24]李聪颖，黄一哲，李敢．雾霾天气对出行行为的影响机理研究[J]．西安建筑科技大学学报(自然科学版)，2015,47(5):728-733.
[25]ZHENG S Q,WANG J H,SUN C,et al. Air pollution lowers Chinese urbanites’expressed happiness on social media[J]. Nature human behaviour,2018,4(2):1-9.
[26]仪垂林，孙玲玲．中国股票市场参与者行为分析与启示——基于行为金融理论的视角[J]．江淮论坛，2006(1):21-25,96.
[27]曾康霖．解读行为金融学[J]．经济学动态，2003(6):59-61.
[28]BORDALO P, GENNAIOLI N, SHLEIFER A. Salience and consumer choice[J]. Journal of political economy,2013,121(5),803-843.
[29]DANIEL A,MATTHEW L. Naivete,projection bias,and habit formation in gym attendance[J]. Management science,2014,61(1),146-160.
[30]FRANCESCO T,ROSATI M V,MANUELA C, et al. Plasma cortisol levels and workers exposed to urban pollutants[J]. Industrial health,2003,41(4):320-326.
[31]伍骏骞，方师乐，李谷成，等．中国农业机械化发展水平对粮食产量的空间溢出效应分析——基于跨区作业的视角[J]．中国农村经济，2017(6):44-57.
[32]方师乐，卫龙宝，伍骏骞．农业机械化的空间溢出效应及其分布规律[J]．管理世界，2017(11):65-78.
[33]伍骏骞，阮建青，徐广彤．经济集聚、经济距离与农民增收:直接影响与空间溢出效应[J]．经济学(季刊)，2016(10):297-320.
[34]TOBLER W R. A computer movie simulating urban growth in the detroit region[J]. Economic geography,1970,46:234-240.
[35]贾男，马俊龙．非携带式医保对农村劳动力流动的锁定效应研究[J]．管理世界，2015(9):82-91.
[36]汤晓莉，姚岚．我国基本医疗保险可携带性现状分析[J]．中国卫生经济，2011,30(1):53-55.
[37]LESAGE J P,PACE R K. Introduction to spatial econometrics,boca raton[M]. Boca Raton,Florida:CRC Press,2009.
[38]邵帅，张可，豆建民．经济集聚的节能减排效应:理论与中国经验[J]．管理世界，2019,35(1):36-60,226.
[39]田相辉，张秀生．空间外部性的识别问题[J]．统计研究，2013,30(9):94-100.
[40]李婧，谭清美，白俊红．中国区域创新生产的空间计量分析——基于静态与动态空间面板模型的实证研究[J]．管理世界，2010(7):43-55,65.
[41]龙小宁，朱艳丽，蔡伟贤，李少民．基于空间计量模型的中国县级政府间税收竞争的实证分析[J]．经济研究，2014(8):41-53.
[42]吴玉鸣．工业研发、产学合作与创新绩效的空间面板计量分析[J]．科研管理，2015,36(4):118-127.
[43]蒋俊朋，田国强，郭沛．中国区域财政支农投入:地区差距的度量及分解[J]．中国农村经济，2011(8):33-40.
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