页岩气勘探开发风险分析
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摘要
国家提出自然资源与生态环境并重的理念,对页岩气勘查开发提出了新要求。页岩气是低品位、高潜能、高投入且高风险的非常规天然气资源。针对我国地质特点,分析阐述了页岩气勘探开发中的地质风险、技术风险、经济风险和环境风险。通过开展平行试验,讨论了地质参数的不确定性;结合页岩气资源采收率低的特点和当前指导性规律认识薄弱的现状,剖析了地质风险。我国页岩气自主核心技术水平能力不断提升,结合工程地质条件,分析了技术在不同地区推广应用中存在的困难;结合我国基础设施完善程度,剖析了技术风险,持续大量的投资和天然气价格波动是主要的经济风险。除此之外,讨论了页岩气开发可能存在的各类环境风险;结合我国南方、北方的人文、地理、地下和地表条件的差异,探讨了页岩气开发可能引起的环境问题及相应对策。分析认为,在页岩气勘探开发的地质工作中,需进一步加强对这些不确定性的认识、描述及分析,加强开展全面的风险评价工作,以帮助决策者做出更为科学的综合判断。
China puts forward the idea of paying equal attention to natural resources and ecological environment,and puts forward new requirements for shale gas exploration and development.Shale gas is an unconventional gas resource with low grade,high potential,high investment and high risk.In view of the geological characteristics of China,the geological risk,technical risk,economic risk and environmental risk of shale gas development are analyzed.The uncertainty of geological parameters is discussed through parallel experiments;combined with the low recovery rate of shale gas and the current weak understanding of the guiding laws,the geological risk is analyzed.The core technology level and capability in China is continuously improving,combined with engineering geological conditions,the difficulties in popularization and application of technology in different regions are analyzed.Combined with the perfection of infrastructure in China,the technical risk is analyzed.Continuous large investment and natural gas price fluctuation are the main economic risks.The possible environmental risks of shale gas development are discussed;based on the differences of the humanities,geography,underground and surface conditions in southern and northern China,the possible environmental problems and corresponding countermeasures for shale gas development are discussed.In the geological work of shale gas exploration and development,it is necessary to further strengthen the understanding,description and analysis of these uncertainties,and to strengthen the comprehensive risk assessment to help the decision-makers to make a more scientific and comprehensive judgment.
China puts forward the idea of paying equal attention to natural resources and ecological environment,and puts forward new requirements for shale gas exploration and development.Shale gas is an unconventional gas resource with low grade,high potential,high investment and high risk.In view of the geological characteristics of China,the geological risk,technical risk,economic risk and environmental risk of shale gas development are analyzed.The uncertainty of geological parameters is discussed through parallel experiments;combined with the low recovery rate of shale gas and the current weak understanding of the guiding laws,the geological risk is analyzed.The core technology level and capability in China is continuously improving,combined with engineering geological conditions,the difficulties in popularization and application of technology in different regions are analyzed.Combined with the perfection of infrastructure in China,the technical risk is analyzed.Continuous large investment and natural gas price fluctuation are the main economic risks.The possible environmental risks of shale gas development are discussed;based on the differences of the humanities,geography,underground and surface conditions in southern and northern China,the possible environmental problems and corresponding countermeasures for shale gas development are discussed.In the geological work of shale gas exploration and development,it is necessary to further strengthen the understanding,description and analysis of these uncertainties,and to strengthen the comprehensive risk assessment to help the decision-makers to make a more scientific and comprehensive judgment.
引文
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[26]约翰斯顿．国际勘探经济、风险和合同分析[M]．路保平等译．北京：中国石化出版社，2010.
[27]郭秋麟．考虑地质风险的勘探项目投资组合优化模型[J]．石油勘探与开发，2007,34(6):760-764.GUO Qiulin.A portfolio optimization model for petroleum exploration projects with consideration of geological risk[J].Petroleum Exploration and Development,2007,34(6):760-764.
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[29]吕鸣岗，朱向东，胡素云，等．圈闭/区带的地质风险分析[J]．石油学报，1997,18(2):49-53.LYU Minggang,ZHU Xiangdong,HU Suyun,et al.Geological risk analysis of trap and play[J].Acta Petrolei Sinica,1997,18(2):49-53.
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[2]王香增，张丽霞，高潮．鄂尔多斯盆地下寺湾地区延长组页岩气储层非均质性特征[J]．地学前缘，2016,23(1):134-145.WANG Xiangzeng,ZHANG Lixia,GAO Chao.The heterogeneity of shale gas reservoir in the Yanchang formation,Xiasiwan area,Ordos basin[J].Earth Science Frontiers,2016,23(1):134-145.
[3]聂海宽，马鑫，余川，等．川东下侏罗统自流井组页岩储层特征及勘探潜力评价[J]．石油与天然气地质，2017,38(3):438-446.NIE Haikuan,MA Xin,YU Chuan,et al.Shale gas reservoir characteristics and its exploration potential analysis on the Lower Jurassic shale in the eastern Sichuan basin[J].Oil&Gas Geology,2017,38(3):438-446.
[4]余杰，秦瑞宝，刘春成，等．页岩气储层测井评价与产量“甜点”识别———以美国鹰潭页岩气储层为例[J]．中国石油勘探，2017,22(3):104-112.YU Jie,QIN Ruibao,LIU Chuncheng,et al.Logging evaluation and production“sweet spot”identification of shale play:a case study on Eagle Ford shale play in the USA[J].China Petroleum Exploration,2017,22(3):104-112.
[5]张鹤林．我省页岩气开发前景良好[N]．贵州日报，2011-12-26(6).
[6]邹礼卿．湖南率先对页岩气进行细致评价[N]．中国矿业报，2012-08-30(A01).
[7]万长茂．江西页岩气进入实质性勘查开发阶段[N]．中国矿业报，2012-12-15(A03).
[8]卢树藩，陈厚国．黔南地区麻页1井寒武系牛蹄塘组页岩特征及页岩气勘探前景[J]．中国石油勘探，2017,22(3):81-87.LU Shufan,CHEN Houguo.Shale characteristics and shale gas exploration prospect in Cambrian Niutitang formation in Well MY-1,southern Guizhou[J].China Petroleum Exploration,2017,22(3):81-87.
[9]李博，魏国庆，洪克岩，等．中国南方盆外复杂构造区页岩气井评价与认识———以湖北来凤咸丰区块来页1井为例[J]．天然气工业，2016,36(8):29-35.LI Bo,WEI Guoqing,HONG Keyan,et al.Evaluation and understanding on the shale gas wells in complex tectonic provinces outside Sichuan basin,south China:a case study from well Laiye 1in Laifeng-Xianfeng block,Hubei[J].Natural Gas Industry,2016,36(8):29-35.
[10]姜生玲，李博，彭传圣，等．来凤咸丰区块LD2井五峰-龙马溪组页岩发育特征及含气性分析[J]．地质与勘探，2018,54(1):203-210.JIANG Shengling,LI Bo,PENG Chuansheng,et al.Characteristics and gas content of Wufeng-Longmaxi formation shale in the well LD2of the Laifeng-Xianfeng block[J].Geology and Exploration,2018,54(1):203-210.
[11] WARLICK D.Gas shale and CBM development in North America[J].Oil and Gas Financial Journal,2006,3(11):1-5.
[12]张抗，谭云冬．世界页岩气资源潜力和开发现状及中国页岩气发展前景[J]．当代石油石化，2009,17(3):9-12.ZHANG Kang,TAN Yundong.The status of world shale gas resource potential and production status as well as development prospect of China's shale gas[J].Petroleum and Petrochemical Today,2009,17(3):9-12.
[13]康玉柱．页岩气开采应以积极稳妥为方针[N]．中国矿业报，2012-08-09(B06).
[14]李玉喜，张金川，姜生玲，等．页岩气地质综合评价和目标优选[J]．地学前缘，2012,19(5):332-338.LI Yuxi,ZHANG Jinchuan,JIANG Shengling,et al.Geologic evaluation and targets optimization of shale gas[J].Earth Science Frontiers,2012,19(5):332-338.
[15]罗斯．油气勘探项目的风险分析与管理[M]．窦立荣译．北京：石油工业出版社，2002.
[16] BERNSTEIN P L.Against the gods,the remarkable story of risk[M].New York:John Wiley&Sons,1996:200-383.
[17]朱向东，胡素云，包世界．圈闭地质评价的风险矩阵[J]．石油勘探与开发，1996,23(1):88-91.ZHU Xiangdong,HU Suyun,BAO Shijie.Risk matrix of trap geological assessment[J].Petroleum Exploration and Development,1996,23(1):88-91.
[18]罗东坤．油气勘探投资风险探讨[J]．油气地质与采收率，2002,9(6):69-71.LUO Dongkun.Discussion on investment risk of petroleum exploration[J].Petroleum Geology and Recovery Efficiency,2002,9(6):69-71.
[19]贾承造．油气勘探风险分析与实物期权法经济评价[M]．北京：石油工业出版社，2004.
[20]莱尔歇．油气勘探中的地质风险和不确定性[M]．赵贤正译．北京：石油工业出版社，2004.
[21]郭元岭，蒋有录，赵乐强，等．济阳坳陷预探井失利地质原因分析[J]．石油学报，2005,26(6):52-56.GUO Yuanling,JIANG Youlu,ZHAO Leqiang,et al.Geologic reasons for unsuccessful preliminary prospected wells in Jiyang depression[J].Acta Petrolei Sinica,2005,26(6):52-56.
[22]郭元岭．成熟探区勘探地质风险评价—以济阳坳陷为例[J]．油气地质与采收率，2006,13(5):94-97.GUO Yuanling.Exploration geological risk evaluation in mature exploration areas:taking Jiyang depression as an example[J].Petroleum Geology and Recovery Efficiency,2006,13(5):94-97.
[23]童晓光，朱向东．国际石油勘探开发项目的评价[J]．国际石油经济，1995,3(3):37-47.TONG Xiaoguang,ZHU Xiangdong.Evaluation of international petroleum exploration and development projects[J].International Petroleum Economy,1995,3(3):37-47.
[24]焦方正．油气勘探开发项目风险分析[M]．北京：石油工业出版社，1999.
[25] ROSE P R.Risk analysis of petroleum exploration ventures by modern corporations[R].A Report Commissioned by Japan National Oil Corporation,1997:102.
[26]约翰斯顿．国际勘探经济、风险和合同分析[M]．路保平等译．北京：中国石化出版社，2010.
[27]郭秋麟．考虑地质风险的勘探项目投资组合优化模型[J]．石油勘探与开发，2007,34(6):760-764.GUO Qiulin.A portfolio optimization model for petroleum exploration projects with consideration of geological risk[J].Petroleum Exploration and Development,2007,34(6):760-764.
[28]李小地．地质风险是页岩气开发的关键问题[N]．中国石油报，2012-03-30(2).
[29]吕鸣岗，朱向东，胡素云，等．圈闭/区带的地质风险分析[J]．石油学报，1997,18(2):49-53.LYU Minggang,ZHU Xiangdong,HU Suyun,et al.Geological risk analysis of trap and play[J].Acta Petrolei Sinica,1997,18(2):49-53.
[30]杨登维．油气资源地质风险分析与管理[M]．北京：石油工业出版社，2009.
[31]张金川，姜生玲，唐玄，等．我国页岩气富集类型及资源特点[J]．天然气工业，2009,29(12):1-6.ZHANG Jinchuan,JIANG Shengling,TANG Xuan,et al.Accumulation types and resources characteristics of shale gas in China[J].Natural Gas Industry,2009,29(12):1-6.
[32]肖钢．美国页岩气开发模式能否复制[N]．中国石化报，2011-08-08(5).
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